ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

How well will the BNP do in May's elections?

In today's Times Tim Hames warns of "shock" BNP victories in May's elections.  He points to recent BNP successes in local by-elections and also the fact that the far-right party needs just 6% or so to win a seat on the Greater London Assembly.  The BNP scored just under 5% in the last round of GLA elections and the decline of UKIP - which has considerable voter overlap with the BNP - may lift them above that crucial threshold.

There are at least three important qualifications that need to be added to Tim Hames' important article:

1. The BNP, not unlike the LibDems, is very good at pouring activists into by-elections. BNP activists will travel hundreds of miles in the service of their cause.  It is much harder for the BNP to do well when elections are being fought all across the country.
2. The BNP promised a breakthrough in last year's local elections but gained just one seat (net).  They also promised 1,000 candidates and only fielded 700.  To put that one gain into context, the Greens gained 25 seats net last year.
3. On paper the possibility of the BNP winning a GLA seat in London looks likely but it might be avoided if the Boris V Johnson race produces a high turnout.  If Boris can energise voters across Zones 4 to 6 and Ken Livingstone motivates his rainbow coalition of supporters, turnout might be sufficiently high to prevent London electing a BNP Assembly Member.  We can only hope.

Tories have successfully beaten off BNP challenges - partly by stressing issues like the BNP's impact on house prices - but Charles Walker MP has set out a broader strategy in a paper for Cornerstone.

Julian Lewis resigns from Oxford Union in protest at BNP-Irving debate

Conservative MP Dr Julian Lewis has resigned his life membership of the Oxford Union in protest at its decision to hold a 'Free Speech Forum' with BNP leader Nick Griffin and David Irving, jailed in Austria for denying the Holocaust.  Television presenter June Sarpong, Defence Secretary Des Browne, and Austin Mitchell MP have also protested at the Union's decision by pulling out of future debates.

In his letter of resignation, Dr Lewis wrote:

"Nothing which happens in Monday's debate can possibly offset the boost you are giving to a couple of scoundrels who can put up with anything except being ignored.  It is sheer vanity on your part to imagine that any argument you deploy, or any vote you carry will succeed in causing them damage. They have been exposed and discredited time and again by people vastly more qualified than you in arenas hugely more suited to the task than an undergraduate talking-shop, however venerable."

Local LibDem MP Evan Harris, due to speak at the Forum with Griffin and Irving defended the invitation for the two men to speak:

"The measure of our country's respect for free expression is our willingness to allow it for the most objectionable and offensive lawful speech, not just for those with whom we agree."

Luke Tryl, President of the Oxford Union Debating Society, told Sky News:

"Nick Griffin likes nothing more than parading around in gags, saying he is being censored. I want us, the liberal mainstream, to show that we are not afraid to take him on in a debate, we will defeat him, and we will beat fascism every time."

Welsh Tory leader unapologetic after blog attack on "sub-human" BNP

Nick Bourne AM's personal blog was our blog of the week recently and a post attacking the BNP has reportedly produced 180 complaints to the Welsh Assembly's standards committee.  The leader of the Welsh Tories described the British National Party as a “nasty, mean, distasteful and grubby bunch of sub-human flotsam and jetsam”.

Mr Bourne was unapologetic in a statement to Wales on Sunday:

“I have no intention of withdrawing any of the comments I made about the British National Party and its membership. Nor will I apologise for making them.  The BNP is a divisive, dangerous organisation which exists to spread fear, hatred and bigotry. There is no place in a civilised society for their views and people from all political parties and none should stand together against them.”

I wouldn't use Mr Bourne's language but my guess is that 99% of those 180 complaints were from BNP activists.  Mr Bourne writes an excellent blog and I hope he'll continue to express his views with passion.

Yesterday Plaid and Labour agreed to form a ruling coalition in the Welsh Assembly.  Mr Bourne will lead the opposition to that coalition.  The Welsh Conservatives had hoped to form their own governing alliance with Plaid and the LibDems.

12 July update from the BBC: Bourne cleared by Assembly standing committee

Charles Walker MP calls for a strategy to defeat the far-left BNP

Noting that 342,000 people voted for the BNP on 3rd May, Charles Walker MP has written a short paper for the Cornerstone blog - issued today - that recommends that we do not allow political correctness to get in way of defeating Nick Griffin's party.

Mr Walker disputes the suggestion that the BNP has distanced itself from its "thuggish past":

"Those who dare criticise it will often find their names posted on websites such as Red Watch and Stormfront and become the subject of fevered online discussions between white supremacists. Indeed, the relationship between these ultra-fascist websites and the BNP is too overt to ignore and strongly suggests that the BNP continues to be the legitimate political wing of the 'skinhead' faction.  We need to make this connection in the minds of those self-professed 'decent' people who feel, in their words, 'forced' into voting for the BNP as a way of registering their frustration at the mainstream political parties."

The paper argues that "continued concern surrounding Islamic fundamentalism and the real or perceived unwillingness of the Government to talk sensibly about immigration and integration" feeds the BNP its political opportunities.

Mr Walker's paper contains a range of recommendations on housing and immigration policies.  It also argues for Conservatives to reat the BNP as a party of the left:

"Politically the Conservative Party should not shy away from positioning the BNP as another Party of the left operating in an increasing crowded space populated by Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Respect and the Greens. All of these parties favour high-levels of state intervention, big government and top down problem solving. As the allocation of its few council seats suggests, the BNP is not the natural home of Conservative-minded voters and the party must work and campaign to ensure that this remains the case."

Download a pdf of the full paper here.

'BNP councillors aren't good for house prices'

The scan above (click to enlarge) comes from tonight's London Evening Standard.  It appears that Tories in Broxbourne are using the example of last year's BNP wins in Barking to scare voters away from the far-right party.  The Standard's Paul Waugh writes:

"The [Broxbourne] leaflet claims that Barking, which elected 12 BNP councillors last year, saw homes rise by 1.2% compared with the London average of 9.1%.  It says the difference meant Barking homeowners lost out on an average £17,000 over past year.  In 2005, the year before BNP got elected, Barking homes increased with the London average."

ConservativeHome has discovered another Tory leaflet that is much harder hitting.  Tories in Holbeach, Lincolnshire will tonight be delivering a leaflet (the full text of which is published below) that compares the fight against the BNP today with that against Hitler in the 1940s.  Over the top?  What do you think?

The Holbeach Tories are attempting to unseat a councillor who defected from the Conservative Party to the BNP nearly a year ago.  BNP leader Nick Griffin has visited the ward and BNP activists have distributed large volumes of literature in support of their three candidates.  Local Conservatives had ignored the BNP up until now and had focused on positive reasons to vote Conservative.  Tonight's eve-of-poll leaflet represents a much more aggressive tactic.