ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Was it worth it?

Some bloggers made a lot of an ICM survey yesterday that showed much greater public sympathy for David Davis' position on 42 days than we had seen in previous polls.  But as Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report has noted, the ICM poll asked a very different style of question to earlier YouGov polls and the ICM poll could be criticised for leading the respondents.  A much better way of judging whether public opinion has shifted during the course of Mr Davis' by-election campaign is to compare like-for-like polls.  PoliticsHome.com has done that with its PHI5000 poll and found no shift in public opinion:

"PoliticsHome has twice asked the PHI 5000: "do you support or oppose extending the period that terrorist suspects can be held without charge from 28 days to 42?" On the 20th June, 65% supported the extension and 31% opposed. On the 7th July, 66% supported 42 days and 30% opposed it."

The voters of Haltemprice & Howden go to the polls today - at least Mr Davis hopes they will.  There are fears, according to The Telegraph, that turnout may be "humiliatingly" low.  Tory MPs who have been to the seat - and many have - return with stories of a divided Conservative Association - unhappy at the estimated £200,000 cost of the by-election campaign and disappointed that their MP is no longer set to be Home Secretary.

As we reported last week, most Conservative Party members across the country also regret David Davis' decision to quit the frontbench although most also believe he will influence public opinion on civil liberties.  That is David Davis' best long-term bet.  Like IDS' commitment to turn the Conservative Party into a party of social justice - what we call 'realignment' - Mr Davis will only succeed by keeping at this task for many years.  One of the real things that the ICM poll did show is that the public are more open to the civil libertarian argument when it is framed in certain ways.  The concern for the civil libertarians is that the public mood is likely to change markedly against them if, God forbid, there are a number of terrorist incidents.

Tory members say David Davis was wrong to resign (but David Cameron should have him back)

David Cameron is campaigning for David Davis this afternoon; George Osborne visits next week; Iain Duncan Smith, Jeremy Hunt and Chris Grayling were in Haltemprice and Howden yesterday.  Every Tory MP has been instructed to visit at least once.

The overwhelming view of Tory MPs who ConservativeHome have spoken to, however, is that David Davis was wrong to resign his seat and should have fought for his views within the shadow cabinet.  Tory members agree with that view although in almost identical numbers they want Mr Davis brought back into the shadow cabinet - an unlikely outcome, at least in the short-term.  By two-to-one Tory members also believe that David Davis' campaign will highlight  "the ways in which our civil liberties are in danger".

Last week Mr Davis launched his campaign with Ten Promises to Protect British Freedoms.

Related link: On the afternoon of David Davis' resignation we found 66% of Tory members "inspired" by his resignation.

The Biggest Beasts of the Conservative jungle

There's an extended profile of Iain Duncan Smith and his social justice agenda in today's Observer magazine: The second coming of Iain Duncan Smith.

The lion's share of the progress that the party has made in this area under David Cameron's leadership - recently acknowledged by the Church of England - is owed to Iain Duncan Smith.  He has raised hundreds of thousands of pounds for his Centre for Social Justice and many of the party's policy ideas owe much to his work.  There's much more to come.  A whole range of policy groups are about to report on homelessness, prisons, welfare benefits and housing.  Perhaps most important of all is the little known CSJ Alliance.  The Alliance is a support network for Britain's most effective poverty-fighting organisations.  Within the Alliance there are groups successfully tackling almost every single social ill.  In the years to come the Alliance has the potential to offer a different model to the welfare state and to the establishment voluntary sector.

But Iain Duncan Smith is far from the only big beast in the Conservative jungle.  The talent outside of the Tory frontbench is very considerable.

David Davis is the first name to spring to mind.

David Davis' campaign on historic liberties has captured the national attention even if it has bypassed the Westminster village.  He wins the endorsement of Tony Benn in today's Sunday Telegraph.  He published his manifesto on Friday.  Incidentally, while ConservativeHome disagrees with him on 42 days we support eight-and-a-half of his other ten campaign planks.  Both ConHome editors have recently slept outside of Parliament as part of a Burma protest so we support the right of free speech outside of Parliament but wonder what he means by wanting all restrictions on free speech removed.  Would constant loud speaker protests, including loud music, be permitted?

We may start getting into hotter water with some of our other nominations but three other big beasts stand out:

Sir Malcolm Rifkind.  It is an enormous shame that Sir Malcolm chose to leave the frontbench when David Cameron was elected leader.  His views on foreign policy and the constitution make him a favoured media pundit.  Only today he has penned a very good op-ed in The Sunday Telegraph calling for South Africa to bring Zimbabwe down within one month by turning off Harare's power supply.  Dan Lewis recommended the same on CentreRight just over a week ago.

Ken Clarke.  He is heavily tipped to return to the Tory frontbench if we win the General Election.  A poll of members found that most wouldn't mind or would welcome his return.

John Redwood.  The figure most party members see as the leading champion of 'the Right' outside of the frontbench has blogged a strong endorsement of David Cameron today: "No sensible Conservative need doubt the Leader’s Conservative credentials. This is the man who led his party in its calls for a referendum on Lisbon and to oppose the whole Treaty. This is the man who led his party to advance cuts in Inheritance Tax for the many, as well as the man who has presided over most important work on how to mend Britain’s damaged society. Under Cameron Conservatives know what we believe in – we believe in opportunity for all, with reform of public sector housing and schooling to make that more of a reality for those currently excluded from home ownership and good education by Labour’s clumsy state."

We return to IDS and David Davis as the two most interesting of the big beasts.  They have led the party to take their respective causes very seriously.  Both began to champion their causes while holding high office within the party but have persevered since.  One big gap for a big beast cause still stands out to us: international development and international human rights.  These related issues are still not yet quite top tier within the party.  Who could be the big beast to champion them?

Shami Chakrabarti threatens to sue Andy Burnham after "innuendo" about her friendship with David Davis

A week ago we wondered if David Davis would struggle to keep his campaign in the news.  Thanks to Culture Minister Andy Burnham we needn't have worried.  Mr Burnham is having to back pedal furiously after Liberty's Shami Chakrabarti threatened to sue him for talking about "late night, hand-wringing, heart-melting phone calls" with Mr Davis.  In a letter to Mr Burnham, that the Evening Standard's Paul Waugh has published, she writes:

"By your comments you debase not only a great office of state but the vital debate about fundamental rights and freedoms in this country. Indeed you seem reluctant to engage in that debate except in this tawdry fashion.  I look forward to your written apology as I'm sure does Mrs Davis. If on the other hand you choose to continue down the path of innuendo and attempted character assassination, you will find that the privileged legal protection of the parliament chamber does not extend to slurs made in the wider public domain."

Two Tory women MPs and the LibDems' Lynne Featherstone have joined the protests against Mr Burnham's remarks:

Justine Greening; "Shami has worked with MPs of all parties to raise the concerns she has. She is completely driven but incredibly professional."

Lynne Featherstone, Liberal Democrat Equalities spokeswoman, says: "Shami's fight for civil liberties is unimpeachable. Any many who thinks that it is okay to speak like that and claim it is political knock-about clearly hasn't understood the women's movement."

Shadow Justice minister Eleanor Laing says: "This sinks politics to a new low. If David Davis had had late-night talks with a man that would have been seen as part of the old-boys network but as soon as a woman is involved, there is this appalling innuendo."

The future of the Davis-Cameron relationship

It's been a week since David Davis stunned the Westminster village and delighted the public with his decision to resign his seat and fight a by-election on his fears that Britain was becoming a surveillance society.

In his politics column for this week's Spectator, Fraser Nelson suggests that Mr Davis' resignation had more to do with wider concerns with the Cameron project:

"At a dinner party in central London a few months ago, David Davis made an extraordinary confession. He had become disenchanted with David Cameron, he said, and was considering quitting politics. ‘I believe in certain things,’ he said, ‘and I do not believe the next Conservative government will implement them'...

So many theories abound about Mr Davis’s ‘real’ intentions that the most damaging possible explanation — a loss of faith in Mr Cameron — has hardly been mentioned. Their differences over issues such as tax, grammar schools and defence spending are hardly a secret, having been extensively aired during the leadership contest. They were also said to disagree over Mr Cameron’s plans for locally elected police chiefs — Mr Davis asking what a home secretary would have left to do if policing was devolved. Mr Davis ferociously denies any such splits, but anecdotal evidence to the contrary has been accumulating for some time."

There is probably some truth to the idea that there were/ are differences between David Davis and David Cameron but it's now important to ensure that those differences are as well managed now that Mr Davis is outside the shadow cabinet as they were when he was a member of it.

In recent days some shadow cabinet ministers have been privately briefing against David Davis.  David Cameron must communicate that this is unacceptable.  It's important that a good number of senior frontbenchers - Mr Cameron included - campaign alongside David Davis in Haltemprice and Howden.

There is also a need for David Cameron and George Osborne to address some of David Davis' concerns.  Sat on large opinion poll leads there is a temptation for the Conservative leadership to eschew radicalism but David Davis' desire for the party to be bolder on tax and defence is not only shared by the majority of Conservative members - and increasingly by voters at large - but is right for the economy and country.  As Tim Montgomerie, Editor of ConservativeHome, argues in today's Daily Telegraph, a movement away from Labour's spending plans is essential if the Conservatives are to stop the flight of businesses from Britain and in order to fund the kind of tax reform that could see the party connect with the millions of low-paid workers that Labour has failed. 

> David Davis seeks Labour votes in video interview for LabourHome website

Cameron webcast and Thatcher drama

David Cameron will be speaking at the second Cameron Direct event in Truro tonight at 6.30pm. The Cameron Direct tour involves Cameron going to a hall somewhere and taking unscripted questions from the local audience for an hour or so. The first one, in Harlow, proved very successful with two hundred people attending - go to WebCameron to see a video of it.

In the biggest step in the party's use of the internet since the launch of Webcameron, from tonight all Cameron Direct events will be broadcast on live the internet. We should even be able to embed the webcast on this site. They're also going to use the CoverItLive liveblog software for viewers to comment in. Comments made in that won't be addressed by Cameron as the focus is on the local residents, but there is a form for you to ask your own questions of him via email.

After that at 9pm BBC Four is broadcasting its drama about the young Margaret Thatcher's pursuit of a parliamentary seat - The Long Road to Finchley. It might give heart to some of those aspiring MPs out there! Here's a clip:

Ann Widdecombe will back Government on 42 days

The former Shadow Home Secretary Ann Widdecombe has confirmed that she's likely to vote with the Government on 42 days pre-trial detention:

"My reasoning is very simple indeed: it's that if we have a state of emergency then the government should be able to ask parliament for emergency powers, as we did for example over Northern Ireland … providing that the legislation does not remain on the statute books indefinitely until somebody gets around to repealing it."

She was speaking to Radio 4's World at One and is quoted in The Guardian.

Just over a year ago 7% of Conservative MPs told ComRes that they would be willing to support 60 days' detention without trial.

The futures of Boris and Ken

In the May survey we asked for views on the futures of Boris and Ken (Clarke!).  There has been talk of Boris as a future Tory leader and of Ken Clarke returning to a Conservative Cabinet.  The box below summarises the views of 1,483 members.

The return of Ken Clarke?

According to this morning's FT, former Chancellor Ken Clarke is open to returning to the frontbench should the party return to Government after the next General Election.  It's difficult to see David Cameron moving George Osborne, William Hague or David Davis from the top three jobs.  Mr Clarke's views on Europe, Iraq, support for marriage and caution on the West Lothian Question would also upset many Conservatives.  What do ConservativeHome readers think of this story and, if appropriate, what job would you give him?

The leaders of The Right

Yesterday evening we noted that 'The Right' was quite an unsatisfactory term but in the April survey of members we asked Tory members to vote for 'the most powerful voice of the Right' (a voice from within Parliament but not serving on the frontbench).  We'll be unveiling the results for the frontbench tomorrow.  This list of twelve followed a rudimentary shortlisting process on this page.  The results represent the views of 1,657 Tory members.

1st: John Redwood MP: 27%

The man who, in 1995, resigned as Welsh Secretary to challenge John Major for the Conservative Party leadership is the most powerful parliamentary voice of 'the Right' according to just over a quarter of Tory members.  David Cameron appointed Mr Redwood to run the party's policy group on economic competitiveness and his recommendation to abolish inheritance tax has (largely) been accepted by the party.  His scepticism about green taxation and controls on development have also tended to prevail over the more restrictionist approach favoured by John Gummer's policy group.  Mr Redwood has put forward his own ideas for a 'practical environmentalism'.  Now blogging on a daily basis, ConservativeHome has previously paid tribute to the economic insight of his regular posts.

2nd: Lord (Norman) Tebbit: 25%

The former Tory Party Chairman and scourge of trade union barons was just 2% behind John Redwood as the leading right-of-centre voice.  With Britain's first woman Prime Minister unable to make serious, public political interventions anymore Lord Tebbit is seen by many as the pre-eminent keeper of the Thatcherite flame.  He was in the newspapers recently calling for the Conservative Party to focus on winning the support of the millions of voters who have stopped participating in the democratic process.  Also recently, he attacked Michael Gove's views on Tony Blair and defended Tony Blair's decision to stop the probe into British Aerospace's arm sales to Saudi Arabia.

3rd: Iain Duncan Smith MP: 14%

Another policy group chief, Iain Duncan Smith, is third on the list.  The former Conservative leader's social justice work has restored a reputation that took such a battering when he was leader.  His Centre for Social Justice is hugely influential on Project Cameron and he now works closely with politicians from other parties.  This cross-party character may have produced the large number of comments from readers as to whether IDS could still be thought of as "right-wing".  The great strength of IDS' commitment to poverty-fighting is that it is based on an authentically conservative worldview.  He sees the free institutions of civil society as central to defeating the poverty that has come to characterise too much of big state Britain.

The Chingford skinhead mugs Michael Gove

Lord Tebbit has written a letter to this week's Spectator in response to an article from Michael Gove.  The full text is printed below...

"Sir: Michael Gove (Politics, 23 February) gives a eulogy to Tony Blair, 'I admired Tony Blair. I knew Tony Blair'.

I had hoped that David Cameron's claim to be 'the heir to Blair' was just a silly mistake springing from inexperience. It is more worrying to find that Blair worship is now the doctrine of modern compassionate Conservatism. No wonder 40 per cent of electors are unwilling to vote; nor that, when asked which party could best meet any challenge facing Britain, those saying 'neither' regularly exceed those naming either party.

Blair's admirers in the shadow Cabinet might reflect on his record: the bungled war on Iraq, the dispatch of men and women to fight without the equipment they need, the sensational increases in tax without measurable improvement in services, the debauchment of the civil service, the identity card fiasco, the criminal justice fiasco, his surrender of British sovereignty to Brussels, his remorseless attacks on the conventional family, despoliation of education, use of the benefit system to deepen the poverty trap, lesser incentives to work or save, his fuelling of the culture of drugs, alcohol, yobbery and violent crime which has left the Home Secretary fearful of walking the streets of London at night.

It was Blair who introduced uncontrolled, unmeasured immigration of people determined not to integrate, but to establish, first ghettoes, and now demands for separate legal jurisdiction. In biblical terms, Blairism is the poisonous tree which can give forth only poisonous fruit and must be rooted out. In 2005 Blair had the votes of only 21.6 per cent of the electorate. With the poisonous tree of Blairism planted in the shadow Cabinet, where can the other 78.4 per cent turn?"

'Ken Clarke would have been the Tories' McCain'

Last week our sister blog BritainAndAmerica looked at the similarities between John McCain and David Cameron.

Steve Richards of The Independent suggests that Ken Clarke is the figure that would have had an effect on the Conservative Party similar to that which Senator McCain is now having on the Republicans:

"More than Cameron, Clarke is the McCain of the Conservative Party, the veteran with broad appeal who arouses suspicious wariness in Tory activists. The question is more interesting in the light of the Conservatives’ relatively small opinion poll lead and their internal debate, increasingly intense, about the direction of policy.  The election of Clarke would have signalled the Conservatives had changed. Although Cameron spoke a lot about the need for the party to change in many ways he represented continuity in his support for a smaller state, tax cuts and Euro-scepticism.

Clarke spent much of his leadership speech at the Tory conference in 2005 lecturing his audience on the limited scope for tax cuts. Recently in an interview he told me there was no scope at all for cuts in the light of the economic gloom. If he had been elected leader there would have been no flakiness around the issue of tax and spend as there is at the top of the party now. The economic policy would be more rooted and credible. Clarke opposed the war against Iraq and would therefore have more credibility in relation to foreign policy in comparison with the current shadow cabinet, which contains some of the most enthusiastic neo-cons in the land."

Richards' idea is an interesting one but flawed.  Most of the issues that divide McCain and the Republicans are secondary issues.  McCain has something serious to say to all three legs of America's conservative movement.  Ken Clarke is out of sync with Tories on the most fundamental of issues - Europe.  If Ken Clarke had led the Tories from 1997 to 2001 the political risks for Blair of holding a referendum on the euro would have been completely different and he might have gambled.

Clarke and McCain hold completely different views on Iraq of course. Where Clarke and McCain are similar is in manner.  Both are straight-talkers (Clarke was straight-talking yesterday about Rowan Williams).  As Martin Ivens noted in The Sunday Times, Cameron is more like Obama in always appearing reasonable, positive and eager to avoid offence.   If, as appears increasingly likely, it's Obama Vs McCain, Brown is more like McCain in character, Cameron more like Obama.

Steve Richards asks Ken Clarke about the hare versus tortoise debate

Yesterday we noted the hare versus tortoise debate amongst Conservative strategists.  Ben Brogan noted it on his blog and Steve Richards asks Ken Clarke about the tension for this weekend's GMTV Sunday Programme.  The former Chancellor manages to mangle the debate as being between a hare and a rabbit!

Steve Richards: Can I finally ask you – there’s an interesting debate on conservativehome, one of the websites, I don’t know if you visit it…

Kenneth Clarke: I don’t know it. I’m not a blog man.

Steve Richards: Full of Conservative party members blogging on and some of them raising quite interesting questions about the style of David Cameron, some saying should he move faster, is he being a bit too cautious, others questioning the soundbite approach, arguably, at Prime Minister’s Question Time.  I just wonder, as someone who’s been on that Front Bench, in front of that box, albeit not at leader level but at just about every other level, what do you think about the style?

Ken Clarke: I’ve known a journalist trying to describe to me this week as the hare versus rabbit theory…

Steve Richards: That’s the thing going on.

Ken Clarke: I thought that listening to this I was probably a hare, if he got it the right way round.  I think what David needs to do… He has the opportunity to be Prime Minister and the public are looking to him as a possible Prime Minister, that’s a huge advance, but they’re not certain yet, and because he’s new, he’s inexperienced, they’re getting to know him, I think he’s capable of doing it myself, what he needs to approach everything with is a statesmanlike attitude of thinking what am I going to do in government.  He is doing the work on policy that we did when Margaret was our leader - you’ve really got to know what the devil you’re going to do when you take over, if you take over.  It requires a lot of work.  But you must only commit yourself to things you’re going to do.  You must look and sound like a Prime Minister.  A combative one.  One who can score points off your opponent.  One who can get into the headlines sometimes.  But what people want to see is someone who they think’s going to grow into being a Prime Minister in two or three years’ time.  Now, insofar as I understand, this bizarre argument about which particular pet you are, I think that makes me a hare rather than a rabbit.  Don’t panic, you got two…

The Chancellor-in-waiting

George Osborne is David Cameron's most important colleague: William Hague may deputise at PMQs but the Shadow Chancellor is second only to David Cameron as the most important figure in the Conservative Party.  And It's not just because the Treasury portfolio is the most important of the three major offices in any leader's gift.  George Osborne was made General Election coordinator in last year's reshuffle.  He took the lead in handling the Tory response to 'Bottler Saturday'.  He has forced the gearing up of the Boris campaign.  With offices next door to the leader's, he is David Cameron's closest adviser on strategy and famously, with Andy Coulson (the communications supremo he recruited), led the charge against über-modernisation.  Before Christmas in their notable joint interview, in China, David Cameron made it clear that George Osborne will remain as Shadow Chancellor.  Already there is premature talk of George Osborne being Mr Cameron's natural successor.

2007 ended very well for George Osborne: Steve Richards of The Independent, not just one of the best reads in 'Fleet Street' but also one of the commentariat's nicest people, decided that Osborne was his Politician of the Year.  At the other end of the political spectrum he won the same accolade from The Spectator.  The Spectator's Fraser Nelson (now a father - Congratulations Fraser) judged that his inheritance tax announcement was "the single most effective policy ever announced by the Conservatives in Opposition"!  The Tory grassroots, who had become increasingly sceptical of George Osborne's qualities, decided he was as effective as the other top members of the shadow cabinet, David Davis and William Hague.

The Conservatives lead on the economy again: If 'it's still the economy, stupid' the Conservatives can take enormous heart from the finding that voters now trust the Tories most again when it comes to economic matters.  A 22% deficit at the last election has, according to YouGov for The Telegraph, become a slender 3% advantage for the Conservatives.  This, however, owes more to declining confidence in Labour's abilities than a transformation in belief in the Tories.  There has been a larger increase in the number of people who are unable to choose between the two main parties as to who is most likely to run the economy well.  Those people are George Osborne's opportunity and challenge in the next twelve months.

So, what are the big decisions awaiting George Osborne?

Will the commitment to match Labour's massive spending be rolled over? If the inheritance tax announcement was George Osborne's best announcement of 2007 most Tory members think that his September decision to match Labour's spending for the period up until 2010/11 was his worst.  With mounting evidence that Labour is spending very wastefully, and concerns growing at the socialisation of large parts of Britain, there must be room for more modest growth in public spending.  When George Osborne comes to review his spending decisions it must be hoped that if he chooses to match Labour's spending again that it will be for a much shorter period.  The danger is that the commitment to 2010/11 will become 2011/12 and then 2012/13.

Will George Osborne be able to deliver tax cuts?  Lower taxation became fashionable again in 2007 but George Osborne hasn't given himself much scope to respond to the mood that the TaxPayers' Alliance is championing so successfully.  He has largely rejected supply-side arguments for lower taxation, saying that all tax cuts must be fully funded.  His plans to fund lower family taxation through higher green taxation may, The Independent has predicted, be undermined by Alistair Darling's plans to raise green taxes in his 2008 Budget.  If the economy slows there will be little room for tax cuts from those famous proceeds of growth if the Tories continue to match Labour's spending splurge.  George Osborne got away with his dubious plan to fund the IHT cut with a raid on non-doms - largely because most economists see a £1bn  or £2bn tax cut as a rounding error - but other similar devices must be more able to withstand scrutiny.

Will George Osborne remain so political?  If there is a big political story in the news then George Osborne is at least as likely to appear on our television screens as Caroline Spelman.  There has to be doubts as to whether that's a sensible strategy.  It is clear that Mr Osborne will not be appointed as the powerful Chairman that ConservativeHome had hoped he would become.  He is going to remain Shadow Chancellor.  Fair enough.  But it is now important that many more voters want to trust him with the nation's finances.  He needs to look in charge of his brief.  Solid.  Reassuring.  With policies to reverse Britain's declining competitiveness.  He is pursuing promising ideas on tax simplification, IT's transformative effect on government and financial regulation.  We need to hear much more about those and less of what George Osborne thinks about Labour's day-to-day political woes.

2008 is the year in which George Osborne must become the nation's Chancellor-in-waiting.

George Osborne and David Cameron deny any Granita-style succession pact

In a joint interview the Tory leader and Shadow Chancellor deny that there was Brown-Blair Granita-style pact for one to seek the leadership first and the other later.

George Osborne tells The Telegraph's Andrew Porter:

“We did talk about the leadership. But we made it clear that – certainly I made it clear – that this was a decision for each of us as individuals. I could see the way David was thinking. He was absolutely up for it and he was going to go for it... Having a conversation with David about it in a way helped make my mind up. Not because he tried to dissuade me or anything, but because he was so clearly up for it and I so clearly wasn’t.  So I thought absolutely the right decision was to very quickly rule myself out and then to be his campaign manager and get David elected. So we never had a deal."

George Osborne won ConservativeHome's Campaign of the Year Award 2006 for managing David Cameron's leadership bid.  His inheritance tax cut saw him shoot up our shadow cabinet satisfaction league.  In members' valuation he now stands alongside the much longer-established William Hague and David Davis in terms of approval levels.  In recent times Osborne formed an alliance with Andy Coulson to push the party away from the uber-modernisation that contributed to the trough in party support during the Brown honeymoon.

Cameron and Osborne have also been interviewed by the Daily Mail but that's not yet online.  Ben Brogan has previewed it, though.  We'll update this post as and when we get more...

Both men are currently in China.  In a 36 second Webcameron interview - the first of a series - the Tory leader says that 'You can't be Britain's Prime Minister if you don't understand China'.  Watch it here.

10.30pm: The Daily Mail's interview with DC/GO is now online.

The key message of that interview (against ConservativeHome's view) is that Osborne will remain Shadow Chancellor; Cameron: "Everyone knows the huge recovery of Conservative competence over the economy has taken place while he has been doing the job. I'm not encouraging him to read up on anything else."

Heseltine warns of difficult economic times ahead

Visiting Liverpool Lord Heseltine told ConservativeHome that "difficult economic times" lay ahead for Britain.  Gordon Brown had squandered the legacy that Ken Clarke gave him, the former Deputy Prime Minister said, and that "there was no cushion" to ease the hardships that are likely to come.

Lord Heseltine remark's follow last night's warning from David Cameron that "Gordon Brown enjoyed a decade as Chancellor living off the expansion of the global economy but he failed to prepare Britain for the future."

For a summary of Britain's economic underperformance I recommend Policy Exchange's October 2007 paper, More mirage than miracle (PDF).  The paper by three German economists highlighted the following major weaknesses facing UK plc:

• Slower growth than all other industrialised English-speaking economies - partly inflated by an unsustainable increase in the size of the state.  The paper concludes: "Judging by the fiscal  deficit trend, the UK is now in worse fiscal shape than almost any other major Western country." 
• An unstable housing market which is associated with a collapse in the savings ratio and an explosion in private debt.
• Neglect of the national infrastructure.

Fraser Nelson took up some of these themes yesterday.

Structurally the British economy is weak but the Conservatives will need to be cautious about being too gloomy.  Conservatives got egg on their faces in 1998 when they spoke of a "recession made in Downing Street".  I hate to say this but Vince Cable has produced the best characterisation of the current economic situation.  The Acting LibDem leader has said that recent growth has been built on a flood plain and could be easily washed away.

How did the big beasts perform in Blackpool?

(10) In tenth position in my top ten of the week is Caroline Spelman.  I’ve been going to Party Conference since 1989 and I’ve never known a Party Chairman to have been more anonymous.  Perhaps Mrs Spelman’s behind-the-scenes efforts should be credited for the overall success of the Conference but the leadership wisely had to call on William Hague to deliver the traditional morale-boosting opener to Conference – usually the Party Chairman’s role.

(9) Ninth position goes to David Davis.  Mr Davis failed again to rise to the occasion.  He was probably the only senior Shadow Cabinet minister to underperform this week and was rightly castigated by The Sun for failing to give 100% to David Cameron.  Although the Conference went well it will be crime that may make the difference for the Conservatives in a still-very-possible autumn election.  It’s vital that Mr Davis raises his game.

(8) Boris Johnson delivered a barnstorming speech on Sunday afternoon but I remain concerned that he’s not got much of a vision for London.  Given this week’s successful announcements on tax, Mr Johnson should consider offering Londoners a council tax rebate?

 

(7) Oliver Letwin has come in for a lot of criticism from visitors to this blog and some of it has been deserved.  The party’s head of policy does, however, deserve real credit for the fact that the policy review process is now showing real coherence.  There are common themes emerging and those themes and the thoughtfulness of the IDS, Redwood and Lilley reports, in particular, offer a marked contrast to the shallow partisan nature of Team Brown’s announcements.

(6) Iain Dale's list of the most influential centre right figures correctly included Michael Gove in the top ten.  An early backer of David Cameron, the Shadow Education Secretary is a key member of the party leader’s inner circle and has been a strong advocate of the ‘rebalancing’ of recent times.  He made one of the most important and under-reported announcements of the week.  Fraser Nelson highlights that announcement in his Spectator column this week:

“Any group of teachers would now be able to set up a school, so long as it met certain minimum standards. Such schools would be genuinely independently run. These simple rules offer the prospect of nothing less than a supply side revolution in education.” 

It’s not as doorstep-friendly as the inheritance tax pledge but it was probably the boldest proposal to emerge from Blackpool in terms of long-term potential impact.

If Mercer 'defects' back?

Ben Brogan (yes again!) is reporting that Sir Malcolm Rifkind has opened fire on Gordon Brown tonight for using the power of government patronage to lure Tories into his tent:

"As leader of the Labour party, Gordon Brown is perfectly entitled to make any Labour appointments he sees fit. But as Prime Minister, making appointments to Government positions to score party political points is dangerously close to an abuse of the proper position of a Prime Minister. It is perfectly clear that his over-riding motivation in a number of recent appointments of both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats has not been the unique expertise of the individuals involved but the fact that they belong to a different political party. It is deeply cynical. Gordon Brown promised a new honesty in politics. We are not seeing it."

The danger for Brown is, of course, that when someone like Patrick Mercer sees the incompetence of Labour at close quarters he'll be able to quit his advisory position.  Those headlines will be worth having.

Michael Portillo wants everyone else to hold their tongues

Michael Portillo yesterday, quoted in The Guardian: "I think David Cameron was pursuing the right course, which was moving the party to the centre ground, and I think that those in the party who do not like it should just hold their tongues."

The Press Association today: "Conservative leader David Cameron has been accused by former Cabinet minister Michael Portillo of "losing his nerve" over the rebranding of his party." (See Marketing Week).

Widdecombe and the liberal tyranny

Ann Widdecombe gives a frank exposition of her forthright conservatism in an interview with Sarah Sands in today's Daily Mail.

Widdecombe argues conservatives should have the courage to suggest to indivduals how they should lead their lives:

"People are terrified of being judgmental. But we should be judgmental. Being judgmental does not mean abandoning people.

"Take, for example, the issue of single parents. Whenever a Tory mentions single parents, we are accused of scapegoating. Nonsense.  Sometimes, the children miraculously turn out OK. But in a lot of cases they grow up dysfunctional, turn to drugs and crime and then repeat the same wretched pattern.  Either you say that we must not judge this behaviour and therefore do nothing.  Or you say we are going to break this cycle.

"In our day, to become pregnant before marriage was a disaster, not just for the stigma but because the girl didn't have a roof and you didn't have a breadwinner.

"Now, the State supplies the roof and the State is the breadwinner."

This also extends to people claiming benefits:

"I can remember when being on the dole was a matter for stigma. Now it doesn't matter. There is not the sense of individual pride."

Lord Saatchi calls for an end to "nicey-nicey" politics

Lord Saatchi has today warned that "nicey-nicey" politics will not win us the next general election urging David Cameron to reach out to voters on the economy instead of focusing on branding. He said all of Mr Cameron's efforts so far had been "to no avail".

"Not a single poll in a single month in the past 15 years has given the Conservative Party a sufficient lead to win a general election," he wrote in the Evening Standard. Lord Saatchi argued that voters were put off by the two main parties fighting for the centre-ground, saying that David Cameron needs to find "an expression of true Conservative ideology".

Lord Saatchi said the grammar schools row showed an inconsistency in the Conservative approach leading voters to think: "He's only saying that. He doesn't mean it."

He also said that Tony Blair's party reforms in the mid 1990s had won Labour a reputation for economic competence."The earth shook," Lord Saatchi said. "When the Conservative Party moves along the dimension from nasty to nice, nothing happens. It follows that nothing will happen until the Conservative Party has something compelling to say about the subject that matters - economics."

Helpful as ever, Portillo warns of "Tory collapse"

Michael Portillo has undermined each of the last four Tory leaders so it is no surprise that he has chosen this time - a time of great testing for David Cameron - to undermine a fifth.  I do not deny that there are some important points in today's article from 2001's unsuccessful party leadership candidate but the balance of the piece is predictably destructive.  Mr Portillo also - unwittingly - reveals the central flaws in his version of the modernisation project.

I respond to some key extracts of his Sunday Times article below:

"The Conservative strategy for defeating Gordon Brown lies in tatters even before he has moved from 11 to 10 Downing Street. The Tories recognised that Tony Blair is unbeatable. But Brown, they thought, would be different.  He would be deeply uncharismatic in contrast to both his predecessor and David Cameron and he would hand the election to his opponents by veering to the left.  Conservative high command is the victim of wishful thinking. It was never likely that Brown would shift from the centre ground."

This is actually Michael Portillo's strongest point in his whole article.  Gordon Brown is unlikely to veer sharply to the left but it is true that voters see the Chancellor as decidely more left-wing than Tony Blair.  Last Monday's YouGov/ Channel 4 poll put Brown slightly to the left of his party and 30% to the left of a centrist Tony Blair.  I believe that Tory strategists should be focusing on Brown's incompetence.

"There is no doubt that Cameron has more charisma than Brown, but in recent opinion polls the chancellor leaves the Tory leader far behind in comparisons of “strength”. It is just possible that Britain will elect a candidate on the grounds that he is more charming despite being much weaker, but the Tories should not count on it."

Agree with Mr Portillo on this point and on Monday night I noted that Labour strategy is likely to portray Mr Cameron as weak and lightweight.  In today's Observer a source compares Cameron'n'Osborne to a boy band.  Expect more of that.

Heseltine's plan for a renaissance in city governance

The hitherto low-key Cities Taskforce chaired by Lord Heseltine has revealed it is going in a very localist direction, recommending the party builds on Labour's introduction of directly-elected mayors and town hall cabinets by establishing American-style mayors in all cities (something he advocated after resigning in the 80s). They would have power over government services such as transport, the emergency services and welfare.

In what they've dubbed a transfer of power from "quangocrats to democrats", the mayors would be accountable to local councillors and voters. Funding for "government puppets" like RDAs and LSCs would be diverted to city government. One of the main reasons for having a mayor's office is that it can pull together the multitude of different regeneration funding streams. Heseltine said:

"These radical proposals build on the hard experience of the 1980s and 90s and meet many of the criticisms made of present government policy by their own advisors. I hope they will commend themselves to a future Conservative government. I believe they could herald a broad renaissance on English city governance.

10am update: The report can be downloaded here. It also includes the idea of giving city governments the power and their own credit rating to issue bonds and borrow on the open market.

Deputy Editor

Heffer spikes Michael Howard's grammar schools article

Rumours around the Westminster village yesterday suggested that today would see an article appear in The Telegraph in which Michael Howard would question the new Tory policy on grammar schools.  I was told that The Telegraph was "excited" by the piece. 

A member of Michael Howard's office confirmed the existence of the article yesterday morning.  When David Cameron's office heard the same rumours they rushed to persuade Mr Howard to dilute the article.  The operation was so successful that Simon Heffer has declined to publish it.  The episode is only the latest example of the difficult Telegraph-Cameron relationship - brought into focus again yesterday by WebCameron's attack on the "near hysterical" Telegraph.

A YouGov poll in this morning's Telegraph found that 49% of voters support a mixture of grammar schools and secondary moderns.  Support increases to 71% amongst Tory voters - a figure nearly identical to ConservativeHome's January 2006 finding that 73% of members oppose David Cameron's 'no more grammars' pledge.

The Times notes that David Willetts sought to defuse MPs' anger by offering to "repeal laws that allow parents to vote to scrap existing grammar schools".

Brian Coleman should be ashamed of himself

"The late Ted Heath managed to obtain the highest Office of State after he was supposedly advised to cease his Cottaging activities in the 1950s when he became a Privy Councillor."

Those words are written by Brian Coleman, a Tory GLA member, within an article on "outing" on NewStatesman.com.  Suggestions of homosexuality have long been attached to Edward Heath and well before homosexuality became more socially acceptable.  But the allegation of "cottaging" is very serious and Mr Heath is no longer alive to challenge Mr Coleman's words.

Derek Conway MP, Edward Heath's successor for the seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup, told the Evening Standard that he was doubtful about Mr Coleman's claims:

“Ted was absolutely wedded to politics. He didn't have a great deal of personal companionship in his life but there are people who are capable of getting on with their lives without companionship.  If there was some secret there I'm sure it would have come out by now."

Mr Coleman has behaved badly but has succeeded in getting the publicity he obviously sought.  One thing he is right about is that the Conservative Party, and public life in general, attracts a disproportionate number of gay men.  Mr Coleman says that gay people run the party in London.  People are welcome to speculate on this thread as to reasons why but Sam and I intend to be intolerant of any hateful posts on this thread.