As reported in this morning's Independent, ConservativeHome has issued its survey of grassroots opinion this morning - on the eve of the Birmingham Conference.
Nearly all of the results are published below but here are the main findings:
- Support for David Cameron at a peak amongst the grassroots - higher than when he first became leader.
- William Hague, Eric Pickles, George Osborne, Chris Grayling and Michael Gove are the five most popular members of the shadow cabinet.
- 91% of Tory members expect the party to form the next government.
- 64% want more policy boldness.
- Only 15% of Tory members expect David Cameron's first Government to be transformational in the way that Margaret Thatcher's governments were.
- 63% believe a large reduction in taxation is needed to boost Britain's flagging economy.
- Members believe that the proceeds of a tighter public spending settlement should be shared almost equally between reduced borrowing and reduced taxation.
Polled 23rd to 25th September
What comes closest to your view about the outcome of the next General Election?
- The Conservatives are heading for a large victory: 48%
- The Conservatives are heading for a small victory: 43%
- The next election will be tight and will probably result in a hung parliament: 5%
- Labour will turn things round and keep a small parliamentary majority: 1%
- Labour will turn things round and win a large parliamentary majority: 0%*
* Not one single person chose this option.
Please say which of the following two statements you MOST agree with:
- The party should now be cautious in policy announcement and protect our election-winning position: 36%
- The party should be bold in policy development and give voters a clear idea of how Conservatives will fix Britain: 64%
What do you think is the most REALISTIC expectation of a Conservative government led by David Cameron? You may pick only one option.
- It will be a government that starts to unpick the harm done by the Brown-Blair years: 46%
- It will not be a revolutionary government but it will make many worthwhile changes to Britain: 29%
- It will be a transformational government, that fixes Britain on the same scale of Margaret Thatcher's period in office: 15%
- It will be a disappointing government that changes very little: 10%
Too many families and government itself need to learn to live within their means again: Agree 97%, Disagree 2%
There is a grave danger that governments will over-react to recent events and impose too much regulation on financial companies: Agree 84%, Disagree 11%
David Cameron should use his Party Conference speech to warn the British people that very tough times lie ahead: Agree 73%, Disagree 20%
The nations that increase regulation the most will stay in recession for longer: Agree 69%, Disagree 14%
George Osborne is ready to be Chancellor: Agree 68%, Disagree 16%
Britain is less well-placed to survive today's economic challenges than competitor economies: Agree 67%, Disagree 22%
Britain needs a large reduction in taxation to stimulate the flagging economy: Agree 63%, Disagree 22%
Current economic problems are related to a culture of greed within financial institutions: Agree 53%, Disagree 38%
Conservatives must support much tougher regulation of the financial sector: Agree 34%, Disagree 53%
The economic situation is now so bad that the next British government will have to raise taxes: Agree 31%, Disagree 49%
The Conservatives are now unlikely to match Labour on public spending. Please state what percentage of the money saved should be allocated to reducing borrowing and reducing taxation?
Percentage that should go to reducing borrowing: 55.8%
Percentage that should go to reducing taxation: 44.2%
There are reports that the Conservatives are thinking of delaying plans to introduce replace family taxation with higher green taxation (the revenue from green taxes would be used to fund cuts in family taxation). What is your reaction to this?
I support a delay to replacement taxes: 48%
I oppose a delay to replacement taxes: 30%
Are you satisfied with David Cameron/ Boris Johnson?
Very satisfied: 59% / 41%
Fairly satisfied: 32% / 50%
Fairly dissatisfied: 6% / 4%
Very dissatisfied: 2% / 1%
- When David Cameron first became leader, 82% of members were satisfied and 16% were dissatisfied. This produced the net satisfaction rating of +66%.
- On the eve of last year's Tory Conference there were slightly more members dissatisfied with him than satisfied; 49% to 48%. A net satisfaction rating of -1%
- This year it's 91% satisfied plus 6% dissatisfied; a net rating of +83%. Higher than William Hague for the first time.
FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
Satisfied minus dissatisfied (latest numbers on right)
- William Hague +87% | +89% | +83% | +82%
- Eric Pickles +42% | +76% | +82% | +75%
- George Osborne +66% | +72% | +75% | +70%
- Chris Grayling +62% | +64% | +70% | +69%
- Michael Gove +55% | +62% | +63% | +60%
- Alan Duncan +57% | +65% | +58% | +55%
- Liam Fox +64% | +71% | +62% | +52%
- Dominic Grieve N/A | N/A | +40% | +51%
- Lord Strathclyde +51% | +55% | +52% | +50%
- Andrew Lansley +32% | +42% | +50% | +45%
- Philip Hammond +35% | +44% | +48% | +45%
- Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +49% | +44%
- Pauline Neville-Jones +38% | +39% | +44% | +43%
- Patrick McLoughlin +20% | +33% | +35% | +33%
- Jeremy Hunt +26% | +30% | +31% | +33%
- Oliver Letwin +20% | +31% | +29% | +26%
- Owen Paterson +19% | +21% | +26% | +23%
- David Willetts +22% | +23% | +22% | +21%
- Andrew Mitchell +18% | +16% | +25% | +19%
- Peter Ainsworth +20% | +24% | +21% | +18%
- Francis Maude -9% | +15% | +18% | +17%
- Sayeeda Warsi +27% | +20% | +16% | +11%
- Cheryl Gillan +13% | +16% | +14% | +10%
- Theresa May +10% | +20% | +15% | +5%
- Theresa Villers +10% | +8% | +10% | +4%
- David Mundell -2% | +3% | +1% | +2%
- Caroline Spelman +30% | +32% | -7% | -8%