That is what the Today programme is reporting as we await the result of the Irish vote on Lisbon...
The relatively low turnout is giving the 'no' camp hope.
The result is expected between 3pm and 4pm.
11.45am: Other blogs - see PoliticsHome.com - are reporting that Ireland is pretty certain to vote "no". We so hope they're right.
Let us pray the ansewr is NO!
Posted by: The Tory | June 13, 2008 at 07:56
I'm afraid that Today's headline implies that the probability of NO merely lies somewhere between zero - no chance - and unity - certainty - so, in a long history of rubbish output from Today, this is quite high up the list of pointless reporting. I suppose they mean that they believe there is more chance of NO than not-NO: on what basis? Most polls pointed to not-NO. Turnout? So Today have a prior function which maps turnout to the probability of NO? I doubt it. We're in the sublime and rare state of both not knowing, and being without influence.
Perhaps they should have released a running commentary on the interim results, like that other bastion of statistical integrity, Conserv[post deleted due to repeat whining about opinion polls and general need for author to get a life].
Posted by: Graeme Archer | June 13, 2008 at 08:27
Odd Dymond saying that on seemingly no basis at all apart from the turnout.
The pro-camp are all talking up a no vote so they can claim a great victory later, even though they have just squeaked home in the most pro-euro country going. Give us a referendum in the UK and then see what happens.
Posted by: passing quangocrat | June 13, 2008 at 08:52
Now, THIS is an important issue, unlike this silly 42-day business. But of course the Tories are awfully quiet about it. And Mr. Davis hasn't said a thing about it.
Posted by: Goldie | June 13, 2008 at 09:03
"Now, THIS is an important issue, unlike this silly 42-day business."
Since when were our traditional liberties a silly issue?
Posted by: RichardJ | June 13, 2008 at 09:09
Having voted no yesterday i am looking forward to giving the old two fingers to the faceless Commissars of Europe. Most people i have spoken to here are annoyed with the eu ministers saying, whatever the vote we go ahead!
As I emailed to RTE yesterday, the last time a frenchman took on the Irish, look what happened-Talavera, Salamanca, Waterloo!!!!!
Posted by: derek reid | June 13, 2008 at 09:23
Iain Dale is reporting that the NO campaign has won, where does this leave the future of the Lisbon Treaty?
My guess is they will try their best to ignore the result.
Damn, we should have had a referendum!
Posted by: Curly | June 13, 2008 at 11:00
Thank God for the Irish!
Let's hope this kills Lisbon stone-dead, rather than merely granting us a stay-of-execution.
Posted by: CDM | June 13, 2008 at 11:29
Haha, this should put a spanner in the European works.
Now time to start campaigning for the EU to become a free trade zone.
Posted by: RichardJ | June 13, 2008 at 11:42
I remember a few weeks ago moronic 'comedian' Marcus Brigstocke on question time basically saying the British Public are too stupid to be allowed to vote on this. That generally seems to be the attitude of the political class in this country. Whatever the outcome, i doubt we shall be allowed any sort of say.
Posted by: Conservative Homer | June 13, 2008 at 11:42
The Irish will probably vote No. The Lisbon Treaty will be "revised", hidden, implemented anyway or the EU Elite will find some other way around the problem with the willing conveyance of our Government of the day, be it Labour or Conservative.
But, on the other hand, the mask of EU democratic legitimacy, already ripped by the French and Dutch, will be torn to shreds.
All those who value freedom and democracy should vote for UKIP and keep voting for UKIP until we either escape from the EU or the EU is reformed so that it becomes only a free trade area with no power except to regulate the rules of trade within Europe.
Posted by: David_McD | June 13, 2008 at 12:06
Even the Pro EU BBC is now reporting a probable NO vote!
Posted by: David_McD | June 13, 2008 at 12:12
They've conceded to the "no" vote!
*Goes to buy Champagne*
Posted by: Chris | June 13, 2008 at 12:31
It's a wonderful 'NO'. God bless the Irish people. However, Brown is reported as having already phoned Sarkozy to assure him Britain will push on and ratify regardless. Traitor.
Posted by: Susan | June 13, 2008 at 12:35
I can report from Dublin that tallies are suggesting a No result. Dublin boxes beginning to be counted as I type. Tallies a bit chaotic in Dublin but the tallies are suggesting a close one. Dublin tallies of slightly more affluent areas are showing a Yes. One result is in from one county already, Waterford - No at 54.32 per cent.
Posted by: Zoe Healy in Dublin | June 13, 2008 at 12:37
With results coming in from across the country, a final result of 52 per cent against and 48 per cent in favour of the treaty was rapidly hardening.
Thank you Ireland!!!
Posted by: dave | June 13, 2008 at 12:42
Oh Dear, what will Dave do now? A u-turn on his u-turn on a referendum non-promise?
Posted by: ukipwebmaster | June 13, 2008 at 12:54
It is indeed a "no" to all power to the European Union.
Sadly there is a link between the E.U. Constition (the so called "treaty of Lisbon") and the 42 days captivity without charge (let alone trial).
It is said that Mr Cameron will not revoke the E.U. Constitution (or even give the British people a vote on it) if he becomes Prime Minister in a couple of years time.
And it also said that Mr Cameron will not repeal the 42 days captivity-without-charge if it is passed.
I hope these things are not true, and that Mr Cameron will turn out to be a principled defender of traditional liberty.
A Conservative.
Posted by: Paul Marks | June 13, 2008 at 13:08
NEW THREAD FOR THIS TOPIC.
Posted by: Editor | June 13, 2008 at 13:13