We're calling London for Boris

Polling stations are now closing... Based on a wide range of conversations we've had throughout the day with people in the field and with senior Tory and other insiders we are very confident that on the basis of patterns of turnout, postal votes and canvass returns Boris Johnson has been elected Mayor of London.

Comments

[Kate Bollinger]

Wow! brave...

[Hugo]

Early call... I do hope your right.

[Voice from the South West]

I hope you're right! Jack W on Political Betting has also called it for Boris.

[Sally Roberts]

Writing this from Ravenscourt Park Ward in Hammersmith. We have achieved a 50% turnout of our pledges and so have other wards in Hammersmith. It's looking extremely good..fingers crossed folks!!!

[Jaz]

I hope you are right!

[Will Stobart]

Wow, this is early. Good call if you're right ;)

[Richard]

Hope this is correct. I left for work early today just so I could vote for Boris first thing.

[David]

It's ConservativeHome wot won it.

[Geoff]

Based on the phonecalls I've made today - it's looking like a good result. I'm holding my breath still but the other target areas that I've been helping out with on the phone are also looking surprisingly positive.

We came from a very high point at the last point of this electoral cycle but it does look like we have exceeded our expectations.

[Adam]

I hope you're right. I dont think London could survive another 4 years of Ken.

[Ben Surtees]

A brave call indeed... would be a fantastic result!

A small group of us headed down to Ealing from Leicester yesterday and have spent plenty of time campaigning there... will be even more worthwhile if Boris has actually done it!

[Pyers]

Careful guys ... remember Truman v Dewey .....

[Jon White]

Incredibly brave call this early in the evening. I so hope that it's a correct call. If it's not, ConHome could suffer a 'Dewey Beats Truman' moment.

All we can do now is wait.

C'mon Boris!!!!

[Sarah Richardson]

Just back home after the day in Churchill ward in Westminster. Turnout up a third on four years ago. Pledges solid - but lots of people who are never in to canvass, who never vote who've come out today. People who say they don't usually vote Conservative who say they have voted for Boris. Cab drivers slowing down and peeping their horn at my rosette. People shaking my hand as I sat telling. Ok - I'm a local councillor and we hold this council seat with a comfortable majority. But the response was fantastic.

I think you're right.

[Political Rhino]

You're going to look bloody stupid if Livingstone holds on...

[Josh]

Hoping you're right, of course, but you're taking a huge risk by calling it this early. If you're wrong, the Lab folks will absolutely love it. Pb.com will be full of gloating Lab supporters if Boris doesn't win after all the hype. They'll be crowing like an Alfred Hitchcock film and they'd be within their rights to do so.

None of us want that.

[Andy D]

Brave/foolish*

*delete as applicable tomorrow

Here's hoping you're right though.

[Essex Boys]

We bet you're right and good riddance to bad, malodourous rubbish!

Well done BJ (if you'll pardon the epithet...)!!

[Janis]

Oh I do hope you are right. Here in Chingford, we have met with real enthusiasm for Boris and real hate for Livingstone, have walked the streets and telephoned canvassed and all have promised to come out, so fingers & toes crossed. Just one thing, many have said that second preference went to BNP, will be interesting to see if they did actually vote for them, and if so what the politicians of all parties make of it,

[Chris Keating]

Foolhardy.

No-one's canvass figures will be accurately recording second preferences in the Mayoral race. And turnout is high across the board, including boroughs where neither sight nor sound of Conservative activists has been seen for many decades.

You might be right - but I doubt any of your 'data' apart from the last few opinion polls...

[graham p malpas]

the beginning of the end of the new labour nightmare!

[Paul D]

Pride comes before a fall

I just hope you're right, they're already reporting this claim on $ky News

[Afleitch]

I can imagine the scene at Labour HQ -'commence ballot stuffing...now! Those postal ballots won't count themselves now will they' :)

[Rothers]

Big turn outs in Lewisham, Greenwich, Newham and Tower Hamlets. So going to be very very close and foolish to call something where you have no idea of how second preference break.

[Tim]

Good Luck Boris

[Dave]

Here in Lewisham things are looking great for Boris, exceptionally high turnout in this otherwise pittiful Labour area. Today is a great day for Conservative Democracy!

[Owen]

seems to be consensus. lets hope the ballots match the predictions

[Charles P]

Turnout also appeared to be fairly high in inner London Lambeth Kennington and Clapham). So to my mind we need firm evidence of a GREATER increase in turnout in Tory outer London than in Labour inner London before we can get too euphoric.

I was telling in a marginal Tory/Labour Ward this evening from 5.30pm to 8.15pm and, based on the demography of who was voting, I am cautious. The turnout from the social housing areas was just as high as from our better streets.

I still think Boris will sneak it, but not at all certain...

[Cllr. Nigel Fletcher]

Huge turnout in my ward in Eltham North, Greenwich - 50 per cent of Conservative pledges marked as voting, which looks very, very good for us. Fingers crossed.

[sertorius]

Good turnout in Westminster, with our pledges making up 50% of voters in many wards

[Sam R]

Just entered up my final responses from my 'phone calls and its looking good.
Wow!
Hope to enjoy the rest of the night. Blue is the colour!

[Wandsworth Tory]

I think Boris will win comfortably. On the streets that I've been working during this campaign, which I've been working for 8 years or so, the change towards Boris is remarkable. People looking very cheerful as they set out to vote too, repeatedly saying "we need a change" and "we've got to get him out". Last Mayoral, a lot of these people were giving Ken the benefit of the doubt a second time. But not a third. I'm hoping he'll win on first preferences... And many thanks to the Evening Standard for their helpful headline suggesting Boris only just ahead, which might have galvanised some more people. We had a veritable flood after work, seemed more than normal.

[RedWedge]

Social housing compared to our better streets?!?!

You Tories are so arrogant, us poor people couldn't possibly count as equals to the parastic middle class could we?!

Livingstone is a London man, a people's politician. Johnson is a bumbling, racist buffoon....oh, Tory archetype there then

It's the fault of the right....of the devil incarnate Mrs Thatcher and her political offsrping shiny Tony...that the country's in such a state.

Wake up and smell the coffee and rebuild British Socialism

[toby hall]

here's hoping the lot of you are wrong...although having a moron racist toff like boris in charge for the next 18mths will wake england up to realising the tories nationally would be a big mistake...shame it might be ken who pays the price. but at least yerl all be able to carry on driving yer c*ck extension 4x4s from the outer boroughs into central london. at least all us peasants will be better of paying for conductors on buses again (?!?!)...come on, i bet not one of you could name another of Boris' policies- oh sorry, yes, more police, although i assume his tory colleagues on the assembly will continue to vote against budget increases to fund these...maybe he'll use 'volunteers' to pretend to be police???...interesting times ahead regardless, even if london does grind to a crashing halt again in the process!

[PortugueseClass]

I've been watching this election from Lisbon with interest (being ex-Barnet, Ealing and Feltham & Heston activist). I do hope you're right, but I was also on the No Campaign in Wales back in 1997. We thought we had it in the bag until 5.30 am. Be very careful. It's never over until the fat lady sings.

[rexie]

"Wake up and smell the coffee"

So dated that even M&S are using it.

[Richard]

Well here in Purley there does not seem to have been great support for Boris, quite a lot still saying they were going to vote for Ken, a lot of doubts from my straw polling that Boris Johnson has the ability to actually manage anything successfully and might be a liability for London..and really seems to have no grasp of detail...noone seems to really know what he stands for...

[Old Whig]

Without doubt, today was very positive on the Polling Stations for Boris Johnson. It certainly felt like he won.

I voted for him and campaigned for him, but am I alone in feeling a little worried? The Boris manifesto was very thin on detail and in the past a limited agenda of policies has led to drift in government. Remember the 1992 General Election Manifesto?

Winning is just the first hurdle. Boris will have to deliver a real change in London otherwise disappointment will set in fast and he could turn from a great asset to No. 1 liability overnight. He also needs to cut down on the clowning now that there is a serious job to do.

Anyway, well done Conservative Home for having the guts to call it so early.

[Duh]

You're calling this "Based on a wide range of conversations we've had"? Wow, how scientific. I didn't know you'd gone to so much trouble.

While we're at it, I think I'll call the russian election of 2012 based on the colour of my belly button fluff.

[RedWedge]

The Conservative Party-
So dated anarchronistic characatures get to stand for mayor of London.

When you peek out of your suburban net curtains have any of you ever spotted tolerance? No? Didn't think so!

You'll win the next elecion yes, but hey we've had a right wing government since the Thatcher fiasco so there's not going to be that much of a change.

Conservatism- centuries of unchanged rule by the privelegded few who believe money gives them the right to trample over who they like.

Socialism- Everyone equal, tax the rich more and the poor less, equal rights for gays, immigrants and minorities in an ever changing world.

It's obvious., no? All you facists are bound to loose.

[True Spence]

Good luck British friends!

Conservatives the world over will rejoice if Ken is shown to the door.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Why are you using an American expression 'calling it' rather than just saying 'we predict a victory for Boris Johnson'? Hope you're right though your prediction is being quoted all over the place so it's fame or (in)fame for Conhome!

[rexie]

You're winding us up wedgie. If you think socialism has got anything to do with tolerance, you haven't been watching

[Thismachinekills]

Charles P, the tragedy is you'll probably never understand why comments like, "The turnout from the social housing areas was just as high as from our better streets", resonate far beyond mere syllables.
If this call is right, then London will have to deal with the consequences of electing a man who doesn't represent it and certainly doesn't know it. It will be a grave shame, and London will lose its verve overnight.

[ADE]

"Socialism- Everyone equal, tax the rich more and the poor less..."

Yes, very equal...

[1992 in reverse]

Let's see the evidence so far on this thread:

People talking about great turnouts in Westminster, Hammersmith, Lewisham,Newham and Tower Hamlets, Lambeth - rather Zone 1 and 2 don't you think?

We also know of Tories in strong Tory inner areas who vote for Tory in Generals and Ken in Mayorals.

Can I add three more areas which I am told had a good turn out: the Labour half of Merton, Hackney and more urban bits of Sutton.

Other info on this thead: Boris not doing so well in Purley.

I wonder why we are not hearing about Bexley, Bromley and Havering?

So far I see a little contradiction to the "call" this website has made??

[RedWedge]

Equal in the amount that each of us pays in relation to gross earnings. It stands to reason that if you are fortunate to earn more then you should contribute more to society, although as we all know 'There's no such thing as society'. Having everyone paying the same and earning the same is Communism and that is as bad as Facism.

When was the last time Conservatism benefitted the masses and not just the Old Boys club and the rank disgrace of middle class middle England?

[David]

According to Nick Robinson on the BBC election programme, Bexley's turnout is higher than at General Elections.

[David]

"When was the last time Conservatism benefitted the masses"

The right to buy council houses under Thatcher is one example.

[Bert]

For London's sake lets hope not - I don't see how a Tory Toff is going to help our capital.