Tories 26% ahead

YouGov for The Sun
Conservatives 49%
Labour 23%
Liberal Democrats 17%

7.55pm: See The Sun: "LABOUR has slumped to its lowest point since records began in the 1930s, a devastating Sun poll reveals tonight. And the Tories are enjoying their second biggest poll lead in history... Our poll shows that Labour would be in deeper trouble even if they were led by Tony Blair.  And it confirms potential successors Ed Balls, David Miliband, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, Andy Burnham, Alan Johnson and James Purnell would ALL make things even worse in voters’ eyes."

8.07pm, The graphic:

8.14pm: For those who need extra reassurance that this poll is for real...!

10.10pm:

Comments

[Curly]

Like.....wow!

[Oberon Houston]

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1142543.ece

[James]

This kind of poll just makes me nervous that complacency will set in.

But fair play to YouGov - they're proven right over and over again.
On a more euphoric note: We're on 49! We have a 9 point lead over our opponents combined!
Electoral Calculus makes that:
C 469
Lab 129
LD 24

[Nick]

Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 208 49.00% 469
LAB 36.21% 347 23.00% 129
LIB 22.65% 66 17.00% 24

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY: 288!

[Paul D]

Crikey, that's a good poll - best lead for how many years?

When will we get the first naysayer claiming we should be 35 or more points ahead?

[Editor]

Thanks Oberon. I've added a link to The Sun piece (and thanks for emailing me about it in the first place!).

[YMT]

woah... just... woah...

[Dave H]

Think I may actually enjoy watching This Week tonight ..

[Robert Simpson]

I almost fell out of my seat when I read that, incredible!

[Oberon Houston]

Paul D 19:58... Crikey: Its the TORIES!

[comstock]

I really don't know where Labour goes from here. If they call an election in 2009 they might lose, if they hang on to 2010 they might well lose even more heavily.

Even allowing for some swing back to the incumbants (which happened even in 1997) it is looking like a Tory government. I think Brown should go for broke, hike taxes on the rich, up the minimum wage and increase workers rights.

He won't of course, he will play safe- and lose.

[Daniel Furr]

Even if the government changed the voting system, Tories would still have a massive majority.

The tide has officially turned in British politics today. No question of it now. Labour are dead. Nobody comes back from a poll rating /that/ low.

[Hitchens]

When will the useless Tories do better, they should be at least 78% ahead.

Christopher Hitchens.

[Paul]

It's covered here. It's covered on the Sky news website. For some reason the BBC site has failed to mention it.....

[Henry Cook]

The Tories aren't doing well enough, this poll shows that David Cameron's strategy is totally misguided.

NOW say we can't win the next election Portillo!

[michael m]

We must keep this in proportion- there will definately be 2 years to the General Election, by which time Labour could have yet another leader( which like Brown they will claim is a change of Government) and there may be some miracle on the economic front.
I know team Cameron will keep a proper balance here- what the polls say in 6 months time will be a more reliable indiactor.

[bluepatriot]

If this was anyone other than YouGov I'd be suspicious but IT IS YouGov!!!!

[English Dumbocrat]

David Cameron is going to lose this election unless he gives us an English Parliament.

Err...

[comstock]

Even if the government changed the voting system, Tories would still have a massive majority.

I think you are right. I support 1st/2nd preference, because it makes fewer seats safe and more votes count. But to introduce it now would look desparate, and could backfire badly. Plus in the recent London Mayoral contest the system only very marginally favoured Labour.

Labour are dead. Nobody comes back from a poll rating /that/ low.

I wonder what the tories lowest rating was, in the time between 1987 and 1992....proberbly not as low as that.....

[Oberon Houston]

I'm not so cautious Michael: Something significant is going on here. I think the mood of the people has changed. Once its turned, its almost impossible for the incumbents to recover. All that will errode our lead will be if we gaff all over the place. In which case votes will drift to the Lib Dems - so far that hasn't happened - Very Encouraging!

[Paul D]

comstock, there's a fair amount of "swingback" debate in post-1997 parliaments - the swing has still been to the Tories, rather than to Labour (relative to opinion polls). I doubt the polls can get much worse for Labour than they are already, but swingback is far from assured

[Oberon Houston]

The government will collapse if their ratings stay this low.

[Senor Portillo]

26% is a very poor show and the plans to remove DC and GO should be started manyana.

[Andrew]

This indicates that LibDem voters in the elections were voting tactically against Labour. Now we can see the real extent of contempt for Brown and Labour in a poll which has no tactical voting.

David needs to get his kneeling before the Queen practise asap.

Labour has brought democracy to Iraq. When will it give it to Britain... perhaps a chant in the commons: Democracy Now! Election Election Election.

[Tony Makara]

Labour are now in total freefall, a party coup is the only possible course of action they can contemplate. If this continues the next election will be as good as a walkover.

[Rob L]

A new dawn has broken has it not?

[Jon]

I like how the poll also reveals that the greatest contempt is reserved for Harriet Harperson and Ed Balls. They deserve it.

[Tyke Tory]

But if we were talking about Europe we would be doing so much better!!!!

C'mon Dave, speak for England!

[Andrew Woodman]

How will portillo present this as bad news??

[David (One of many)]

Amazing - I also love the fact that it gets worse for Labour if they change their leader. Milliband would see them on 19% and Balls on 13%.

Oh, and Nick Clegg would lose his seat.

[Andrew James]

I don't have the required vocabulary to describe a 26% lead without heavy doses of euphoric swearing. I've reserved that for phone calls to fellow Tories.

UK Elect has fun with this:

Con 451
Lab 141
LD 21
SNP 12

CON MAJ 254

On these figures, Labour are obliterated pretty much everywhere, even losing two seats in Nottingham, Leicester West (!), Wallasey, Bury South, Stalybridge, Oldham, and.... Darlington!

We now need other pollsters to fall into line. They must all show leads of over 15%, preferably 20%.

We have come so far over the last 2 and a half years. But there must be no let-up - we have to destroy this terrible government once and for all.

[Henry Mayhew - 'kipper]

That just brings in a government committed to Labour's spending plans without any more policy ideas than to say "Let the Etonians have a go now. They must be pretty intelligent and sorted". What a farce two years out. Not an idea between them.

p.s. What's the point of Liam Fox, David Davis etc in the Cult of Dave?

Well done on a great poll, but I'm not into pollitics. You were going to win eventually due to Labour policy disasters. Why not stand for something and argue for it? Are going to try to con the electorate with 'compassionate conservatism'? Look what that has done to George Bush.

[YMT]

"Tyke Tory"

The problem is that we don't know what to say about Europe, anyway! We have a much bigger problem with Scotland, we have no real presence there, and that has to change.

[Daniel Furr]

Question is; will Brown now "sink the ship"? With a poll like this you cannot expect Labour MPs to start supporting a unpopular government. Especially John McDonnell on the left.

Many Cabinet ministers are quietly favouring an early election and rebuilding the party in opposition.

[Tory Bear]

Glorious glorious news!

Check out ToryBear a new blog that will be officially launching soon but already live!

www.torybear.blogspot.com

Feedback would be most appreciated!

TB

[Senor Portillo]

Pay attention Andrew Woodman, I already have and I will re-itterate it tonight when cuddling up to she wot is all woman on This Week

[Editor]

Stay tuned btw - we'll be holding a live chatroom from 10.30pm until after midnight for Question Time and The Week.

[Tony Makara]

These monster leads are almost starting to make me feel sorry for Coco Blears as the Labour government sends her out onto our TV screens again and again to take yet another custard pie in the face. In case we start getting too soft about killing off the wounded Labour animal we had better send for the brutal Louise Bagshawe who will make sure that we 'do for them' and show no mercy!

[Graham Doll]

Hurrah, the lost decade is coming to an end, the pendulum has swung back at last. The Tories are stronger than ever and Brown is a laughing stock. It's all over for Snotgobbler and his grasping Labour chums, and not a moment too soon.

[Richard Calhoun]

This is excellent news, I guess we will see Labour see sawing over the next 2 years on poll ratings but it should be comfortably within the Tories target of a 40% + lead by the election.

I do hope the Cameron critics and sceptics have the grace to admit the guy has got it right!!

[English Dumbocrat]

Tyke Tory, you're right. We should forget about all these stupid subjects like the NHS and environment, and start talking more about Europe, immigration and the West Lothian Queston, just as we did under Michael Howard and IDS. Then our poll ratings would be MUCH better.

Dave is leading the Tories to disaster and electoral failure!!

[Oberon Houston]

The 10p tax will go down as Browns Black Wednesday moment.

[Andy D]

Congratulations to all you hard-working activist types whose achievements are being cheered by armchair supporters like, erm, me.

I trust the party's high command enough to be confident they'll not appear smug, arrogant or complacent, and I hope they keep driving onwards in the same manner.

[James Burdett]

Also this poll must have been taken before Bendy Wendy's coup de grace on Brown. Heaven above knows what the polls will look like after that filters through!

[CCHQ Spy]

Unbelievably good. I'm going to lie down for a nap and hope this is still true when I wake up.

[Deborah]

Boris getting in has shown that lots and lots of people voted Tory. Obviously they couldn't all be heartless b..tards so people know they are not alone and can finally admit that they'd like to vote Tory too.
It's a big change.

[Boris fan]

This should be called The Boris Bounce.

[Graham Checker]

Hitchens/Senor Portillo:

Very funny!!! LOL!

Unbelievable poll. Just incredible...

A solid, absolute majority (50%+) of the vote in England.

Stunning.

[Votedave]

By God, it's incredible!

Not since the late 1960s have we had such a large lead.

[Richard]

"I think Brown should go for broke, hike taxes on the rich, up the minimum wage and increase workers rights."

Not a wise idea unless you want to face reprisals. Remember what we did to the North in the early 80s as revenge for 5 years of Old Labour socialism...