Local elections, live blogging 1

8.41pm: Ten of the verbatims that we received in response to our monthly survey asking for observations about the elections:

1. "We have plenty of candidates. It was not difficult to get people tostand"
2. "I'm in Islington London and have only heard from the Lib Dems for GLA - and Boris!"
3. "Won't make any difference who wins. Tory Councillors are Trots around here. Council Tax will keep going up."
4. "We have Boris standing for Mayor. He likes women. We're hunting Paddick. He likes men. And we're hunting Livingstone. He likes mad people from South America."
5. "We are endeavouring to win Reading back from Labour who have had 'control' for 25 years.Their Labour MP,(Salter) is a duplicitous character and has demonstrated unreliability several times. I have written about his failings regularly in the local Press and had much support for exposing him and his coterie of useless Labour Councillors. Our candidate is an excellent chap who has been regularly working hard and last weekend there were 40 'helpers' doing canvassing and delivering leaflets."
6. "Lots of people saying voting Conservative for first time in their life."
7. "WE are attacking Labour Heartland of Crewe and hope to take at least one of the four seats off them. Nantwich is in the hands of Independents who are just old labour masquerading as Independents."
8. "In the Derby City election we have had the help of the Sikh population for the first time following several defections from Labour to us including a prominent Cabinet member and another councillor."
9. "In Worcester City the BNP are fielding more candidates than the Lib Dems!"
10. "Here in Gibraltar we have a whole different election cycle and no local elections. I'm helping some UK local candidates by phoning voters and also Boris the same way but can't obviously pound pavements. This is the third election where I have been really proactive on blogs and opinion-influencing websites and I think that is a big way to make a difference. It will become bigger."

Will add more such comments later.

8.13pm: Stop press!! Ken Livingstone was a young Conservative!!! Enough exclamation marks.  Hurry up Harry has the story.

7.01pm: How low did Ken Livingstone's supporters go?  That'll be one of the questions we'll need to ask after all this is over.  Look at this extract from a leaflet sent out by the 'British Muslim Initiative':
In case you can't read it, it states:

"What if you don't go out and vote for Ken?

The BNP urged its supporters to cast a second preference vote for Boris Johnson.  If the BNP or other right wing candidates get elected, they would generate a climate of fear and hatred, threatening the city's community cohesion."

Really low stuff.  Here is a pdf of the leaflet put out by Team Boris to win Muslim voters for Boris.

6.34pm: Why rely on one expert when you can have one hundred?  Further to our 3.35pm note, PoliticsHome has now posted the full expectations for tonight's results - as stated by 100 Westminster insiders.  In summary:

> The Tories will have a champagne evening if Boris wins the Mayoralty, we gain 100 to 200 council seats and we achieve a 42% national share of the vote.

5.30pm: BBC reporting cases in London of polling station staff apparently inadvertently invalidating ballot papers

4.37pm: This was Trafalgar Square at just before 3pm today:

The Square was full of communist groups celebrating May Day.

4.19pm: OK! magazine's coverage of the local elections.

3.45pm: These photos show how Labour in Harlow (where Samuel has been campaigning today) is in the past in every way: On the left is a photo of six or seven people in Labour HQ using the old fashioned method of taking telling slips, crossing out pieces of paper, ripping off slips etc. On the right (and down the corridor) is Peter Ould on his Blue-Chipped laptop doing about ten times the work.

3.44pm: Wat Tyler and Mrs T voted in Surrey and in London.

3.35pm: Nice graphic on what the parties need to achieve - it comes from Martin Bright's latest column for the New Statesman.  The key thresholds for the party (in terms of council seats) are: Tories must gain at least 100 seats to have a good night; Labour shouldn't lose seats (unlikely) and the LibDems need 100 gains (which isn't going to happen). Click on the graphic to double its size:

The graphic represents the collective wisdom of the Westminster insiders who are polled on a daily basis by PoliticsHome.com.  Tune in to the site tonight.  Its best product will be rush transcripts of what key pundits and politicians are saying on the TV and radio tonight.

3.13pm: Just noticed this on UK Polling Report re voting intentions for the Greater London Assembly:

"Voting intention in the assembly stands at CON 40%, LAB 33%, LDEM 14%. Others include the Greens on 4%, BNP on 3%, UKIP 2%, Christian Choice 1%, Left List 1%, Respect 1%, Abolish the Congestion Charge 1%."

Guido, Iain Dale (who is also live blogging already) and, of course, YouGov are predicting a Boris win.  ConservativeHome joins that chorus.  Despite the numbers above we also expect the BNP to get a seat on the GLA.  We'll soon know...

2.15pm: Ryan Robson has written a short piece for the LondonMayor section about campaigning for Boris.

12.35pm: When can you expect local council results?  Here's a rough guide:

• By midnight or soon afterwards results should be in from: Vale of Glamorgan, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Eastleigh, Havant, Kingston upon Hull, Lincoln, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Peterborough, South Tyneside, Tameside, Tamworth, West Lindsey and Worcester City.
• Half an hour later: Barnsley, Bolton, Carlisle City, Great Yarmouth, Hart, Knowsley, Mole Valley, Monmouthshire, Sefton, Southend, Swindon, Tunbridge Wells and Wirral.
• Fifty or so more results by 2am.

12.11pm: YouGov's final poll has just been published and has Boris Johnson ahead by 6% on second preferences.

YouGov and the London Evening Standard will want a Boris win almost as much as Boris himself.  Both will have their standing enhanced if Livingstone is ousted.

11:49am: Let's begin with a message from David Cameron, on why we should vote Conservative:

Comments

[Chad Noble]

Yes, good luck to all Conservative local council candidates today.

Tory local councils are certainly dedicated to delivering good old-fashioned vfm even if the national leadership has bought into the new labour big-spend approach.

[Barbara Jones]

Ok I've voted.

My first choice was the Christian Alliance candidate. I know he won't win but I have to make a stand for christianity,

But don't worry i put Ken down as the 2nd choice to make sure he only comes in second place.

A lot of my friends have done the same.

[Will Stobart]

"YouGov and the London Evening Standard will want a Boris win almost as much as Boris himself. Both will have their standing enhanced if Livingstone is ousted."

Tim, the Sun will want that outcome as well. Don't forget, they have their reputation for predicting polls accurately to lose ;)

[Joe Mooney]

Boris has the pledges so lets all make a big effort to get out the vote today.

Remember a vote for Ken is a vote for Brown. Good luck to Boris and all Conservative candidates in todays elections

[Bexie]

Also Good Luck to Boffo and all the other candidates, I am driving up after work to help out with getting the vote out in my former homeland.

[Douglas X]

Working in a busy Constituency Office in North London. Early telling results coming in:

Meltdown in the Labour vote so far up here! All our supporters are turning out. Busy polling stations.

[Tim H]

Not only did I get out to vote early, I had the added bonus of a chance to give a woman from the 'Respect' party some instruction in Anglo-Saxon.

[James]

Last night I was in a gay pub in the East End. At a very early stage a quick ask-round returned a 5 out of 5 canvas return for Boris, which is encouraging to say the least!

[Christopher Blore]

I'm down at uni in Exeter and trying my best to locate my polling station. The leftie council seems to have been trying to sabotage my vote by not delivering me a polling card so I'm not even sure if I've been registered. On top of all that, the City Council website gives no indication of where the polling stations are so it looks as though I'm on my own. I hate not exercising my right to vote but it looks as though I may be doing so by default today...

Still, I have at least been able to vote by post in my home town in Essex.

[James Maskell]

As much as I dislike the Conservative Party and what is now stands for, anything beats the Socialists and the Lib Dems. Best of luck to all the candidates.

Ill be watching the election coverage tonight and hoping for Tory gains. First election night for a while given there wasnt one last night because counting was delayed to the next day, as I understand London and Wales will be this year. If counting has to be delayed till the next day, then the system is already far too complicated.

[Edison Smith]

I don't think we'll necessarily be losing Coventry...

[BexleyTory]

To the post above... you can only vote in one district anyway can't you? so what is the fuss about not being able to vote in Exeter aswell? I sent my postal vote for Boris off a week ago, sadly my family will all vote for Ken.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I'll be on the GOTV trail in Finchley tonight. The association there seem to be doing a great job- Labour haven't put anyone on polling stations.

Good luck to my friends running for re-election in NE Lincs too. Let's hope we can overtake the Liberals and become the largest party!

[Chris Blore]

BexleyTory, as far as I understand it, you are entitled to vote in any area where you have a house. As I rent a house in Exeter, I am also entitled to vote here and did last year.

On another note, Labour's election literature seemed to be largely based on telling us how the council is getting a raw deal from government funding. They're not exactly the sharpest tools in the box, these Labour councillors!

[James maskell]

I mean there wasnt one last *year*. It doesnt feel like a year ago. Scary how time goes by.

[Iain Lindley]

Here in a target ward in Salford turnout is broadly similar to last year when we gained the seat comfortably. Weather has turned out okay despite an abysmal forecast. Sun is out now but would expect some rain later on. I'll be posting regular updates from Salford on www.iainlindley.co.uk but don't expect anything too exciting until the count. :)

[Malcolm Dunn]

Sadly I have to work today and won't get home until quite late this evening so won't be able to help tday.The very best of luck o all Conservtive candidates.

[Jon White]

Will be watching the results closely here from the USA. Sadly, Redbridge Council messed up my postal vote so I can't contribute depite being a London Council Tax payer, but c'est la vie. Good luck to ALL Tory candidates - especially Boris. London has suffered for too long under the socialist yoke of Rred Ken!!!! To all activists - GET THE VOTE OUT!!!! C'mon you blues!

[Martin Wright]

Christopher Blore
It seems to be a common misconception among students that they are entitled to vote twice, once at "home" and again in their university town. This cannot be legal - it undermines the principle of "one person one vote". I've often thought that we should be pressing the Electoral Commission for this to be corrected. How many seats are going to the Lib -Dems, in particular, because of this illicit double voting?

[Jon White]

Martin Wright - I think that LEGALLY you are correct. However, I put the ethical question like this - if you are paying Council Tax in two (or more) places, why should you not be allowed to have a say in how that money is spent in EACH of those places? We are voting here for local representation, funded (at least in part) by revenues generated from those who own property in that locality.
Now of course, this applies to few students. However, in principal, I feel that in this situation it should not be 'OMOV' but rather a vote per property on which you fund the respective council.

[Alan S]

Editor: I think you are right about Boris winning and (sadly) the BNP winning.

[David Jones]

No, guys, look - you can vote once in one election. Each local authority holds separate elections to other local authorities. You can't vote more than once in a specific local authority election. You can however vote once in local authority election A and vote as well once in local authority election B.

At a general election there is only one election going on - to the Commons. At a European election there is only one election going on - the the European Parliament. But at local elections - note the plural - there is more than one election going on. You can vote in as many elections as you are registered in areas which are holding them.

[NorthernEconomist]

The law regarding student voting is that you can vote twice so long as it is not for the same assembly i.e. you cannot vote in two constituencies at a general election, but you can vote in two different wards as long as they are for two different councils. Obviously, most students need to sort out a postal vote to be able to vote twice.

[Stewart Geddes]

Interesting suggestion - or should that read implication (Jon White) That only those who own the property and pay council tax should have a vote. Now that would concentrate the mind wouldn't it... The problem we have in local elections is that there is no connect between people's vote and their pockets. If there was the outcomes would be very different.

After all the Americans fought on the ground of no taxation without representation. Surely the quid pro quo should be no representation without taxation.... HeHeHe

[Martin Wright]

Good Luck to Boris and all the assembly candidates. Voting seems to be brisk in my part of outer London.

Given all the stories about electoral fraud etc, I am very concerned about the flimsy cardboard ballot boxes -very easily tampered with, no seals etc. And then there is the long delay before counting begins.

What are the security arrangements? I'm probably being paranoid but I wouldn't trust Livingstone as far as I can throw him.

[Jon White]

Stewart Geddes - well it would concentrate the mind wouldn't it! Why shouldn't you vote for high spending councils if you as the voter don't have to fund that spending? "I'll vote for Ken because it ain't ME whose paying for his ludicrous schemes, but the other poor bugger!" It's similar to the almost universal view that those who earn more should pay more - but naturally NEARLY everyone feels that it's those who earn more than THEY do!

At least Lady T's hated Poll Tax did ensure that everyone who benefited from local governement had to pay towards it. Sadly, it was sold pitifully to the public and hence the revolt against it. Much as I hate to endorse a Lib Dem idea, the notion of local income tax - so that everyone still pays, but relative to their income, always struck me as fairer than just property owners paying.

[Stewart Geddes]

The Community Charge had a lot of positive points going for it. As you say (Jon White) it was sold pitifully (Wasn't that Michael Portillo???). If the system had properly recognised (i.e. exempted) those unable to pay due to unemployment or studies, we could well have still had it. That allied to the perception that We Scots were being used as Guinea Pigs dealt the idea a fatal blow.

[Martin Wright]

My concern about double voting was more addressed to General Elections. Slightly off topic today but a thought for the future. Very often I've heard students boasting that they help the Lib Dems win some University town while voting at home as well.

[Jon White]

Stewart Geddes - the Community Charge did have some provision to help those not able to pay, but not nearly enough. Nor were these provisions highlighted nearly enough to the general public. (I think that it was Portillo who sold it so badly, but I'm not sure). It wasn't a perfect answer, but it did at least create a link between who you vote for and how much electing that person will cost you.

I feel that the Scottish issue is a red herring! The whole country had the charge, and it wasn't until it went country wide that we saw the riots.

I honestly don't know what the answer is, but I repeat that the current system - which is really just the old 'rates' that the Community Charge replaced - is markedly unfair. The general principle in the UK (though there are some exceptions) that we pay tax relative to our income levels, not our assetts. (and on spending of course). Council Tax differs from this principle. My mother, for example, has very low income but owns a property. She has to pay tax on that PROPERTY, not her income. This seems patently unjust to me, and it's a situation that many pensioners find themselves in.

Likewise, one can have a high income, but live in a small (and presumably less valuable) property. Thus, realtive to your income in that situation, you gain in terms of what you have to pay for your local services.

I can't think of a fairer system than local income tax.

[Sammy Finn]

Tim & Sam: Are the powers that be placing restrictions on you tonight when you blog from inside CCHQ?

[Stewart Geddes]

It may be a coincidence but the amount raised in VAT is broadly the same as the total Local Authority expenditure. Why not scrap the council tax and vat and allow local authorities to set their own local sales tax (or any other tax they care to set). Thus you would have local acountability and responsibility. Set the tax too high and everyone gets in their cars to the neighbouring authority. Set it too low and you don't raise enough or you get overwhelmed by people coming into your area.

Locals then get a direct link between their vote and their council expenditure. If a local authority then wants to levy a property tax, so be it. Or a hotel Tax (Blackpool) go ahead, but you have to live with the consequences.

[Jon White]

On a completely different issue, IF the BNP does win a seat tonight I will be very sad. I have no time for any racists. Not only is racism immoral, is also patently dumb.

However, if they do, it may focus the minds of the major parties, and also the Lib Dems, on why horrible people like this are gaining votes, and go about addressing those issues.

Perhaps some positives could come from what would no doubt be a horrible stain on London.

[Martin Wright]

The YouGov figures for the minor parties in the Assembly seem incredible e.g Greens only 2%.Many people understand that a vote for the two major parties in the London-wide party ballot probably will not result in any extra seats for their own party. Therefore they often use it as a way of tweaking their message to the Mayor by voting for a minor party.

[Jon White]

Stewart Geddes - an interesting idea, but sales tax is by definition regressive. Yes, I agree that it gives freedom of choice - I choose to smoke and therefore elect to pay the duty on my cigarettes to the Exchequer. But, because I am reasonably paid that choice for me is less onerous than someone who earns minimum wage.

Local income tax means that those who earn most pay most.

[graeme archer]

greetings from chingford in NE London. Trying not to get too excited. The canvass we're working off is an under estimate of Tory support. We've knocked up seven streets this afternoon and have met only two "against". More importNtly the determination of Tories to vote is stronger than I've ever seen. Good luck everyone- big shout ( as the kids say ) to the Harlow crew!

[JD]

Just checked my hotmail email account and was pointed towards an interesting analysis of web searches on msn for each candidate over the past thirty days. Boris got 54% of all London mayoral searches, Ken 32%, Paddick 12% and Berry 2%.

It doesn't technically mean anything but interesting nevertheless.

Good luck to all our Tory candidates.

[Mark]

Blue Chip?

Its Merlin :p

[Charles Hall]

A story in The Times is saying that turnout could go as high as 50% if early voting patterns are representative.

[Will Stobart]

That would be awesome, Charles. If we can get a high turnout on a pro-Conservative vote it would make any gains even sweeter.

[Dave B]

@Jon White
Income tax is taken before you've eaten. It has no idea if the 'tax' portion of your income was disposable income, or eating money. 'Allowances', attempt to guesstimate what is, and is not disposable income, but it's a guess.

A sales or consumption tax doesn't have that problem. Using VAT as an example, vegetables and commodity foodstuffs are zero rated, as are children's clothes, books no doubt other items too. (personally I think electricity/water/gas should also be exempt).

The idea is, you're allowed to keep body and soul together BEFORE the state takes their share.

[KevinDavis]

The Lib Dems in Kingston (one of their key areas) abandoned telling and knocking up and have moved all their forces to Richmond!

[Charles Hall]

If it's a turnout like that, Livingstone will win.

[MrB]

Voted in Liverpool Central ward earlier today. Beautiful day, but the polling station was absolutely deserted. Hardly surprising really- turnout here was 11.8% at the last election. The lowest in the country.

Our candidate here obviously can't win- it's Liverpool and he came fourth behind the greens last time. But I voted out of principle anyway.

[Richard Brett]

Just back from voting in Putney.

First preference for Sian Berry, out of principle, as I know she can't win, so to be safe my second preference went to Ken.

It's a good feeling.

[eugene]

Hey! My brother tells me that Boris is polling OK- in Hackney!

[Paul D]

If a load of ballot papers have been accidentally voided in Lambeth then surely that will help Boris?

All hell will break loose if there's a narrow Boris victory and a stack of spoilt Livingstone votes

But it would be very, very funny

[Prodicus]

Serious worries on PB.com from rumours that Ken is doing amazingly well and might do it. Betting money going on him fast right now. Also rumour of a leak from ITN that Boris is in serious trouble. Possibly all **** but anxious-making nevertheless. It's going to be a nervous night in our house.

[Editor]

I don't believe that Prodicus.

You've heard of push polling?

I reckon some push blogging may be taking place.

[Ted]

Mike Smithson confirmed someone had impersonated him and other posters - no exit poll information, no panic

[Richard]

Are we having a live chatroom-blog thing this evening like we did during that Channel 4 programme?