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This poll should be read together with the NoW poll of marginals. That shows approximate 5% lead in marginals (seats that in 2005 had a Labour majority), this a 10% lead in the country. Electoralcalculus works on a basis of a national swing. Having both polls we can see that the party is doing better in marginals than overall so this poll is actually likely to result in a larger majority than the model would forecast.

On these figures Labour would lose around 92 seats... still, it shows that the 5% lead in the Guardian was probably a rogue, and lots of polls are now showing Labour dipping below 30% with alarming regularity.

The poll of marginals implies a swing of c.8% against Labour. In all likelihood, the Conservatives would win a 100 seat majority with that kind of swing.

But marginal seat polls dont have a great track record in terms of accuracy.

Not sure about the UNS projection - I think it's going to be way off come 2009 or 2010. There's no way an 11-point lead would only produce a majority of 26, whatever the uniform swing calculators say!

Forget the seat projections - its pure guess work. It depends crucially on what is going on natikonally with the LibDems. My guess is that they are losing in the south and gaining in the North. What THAT will do to seats is anyone's guess.

It's clear that the voters didn't think much of Gordon Brown's shambles over his con-trick of a 2007 budget and this reaction when, a year later, he was found out robbing the poor !

However although 5% in a week rejected Labour 4% of them went into the "Others" category [nb NOT into the 'Don't knows', who are excluded from the survey] 1% went to the LibDems but NONE went to the Tories.

Work that out!

NONE went to the Tories.

Work that out!

It's easy. Labour is giving the electorate plenty of reasons to reject them, but the Tory leadership is - as has often been pointed out on this website - providing precious few real reasons to attract positive support.

ICM was the pollster over the last few months which has been best for Labour.If even they are showing Labour with a double digit deficit Labour really are in trouble.

It is very true that there isn’t a reason to vote Conservative. What is needed is a ‘big idea’. One example would be a commitment for a full enquiry into to the behaviour of New Labour with respect to the donations from corporate backers. For example, the awarding of government contracts, allowing unlimited migration to replace indigenous workers, or jobs for ex-ministers. The additional benefit of announcing intentions of an inquiry would mean that this source of backing for the Labour party would dry up. It would also provide a boost to the sales of document shredders too.

I agree with that. Its called threatening them with the danger of multiple inquiries into all their dodgy dealings over the last 11 years.
It'll work wonders for demolishing their donations/loans base - already diminishing.

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