Tories surge to best opinion poll position for twenty years

Amazing.

A YouGov survey for tomorrow's Sunday Times gives the Conservatives a 16% lead.  Yes, 16%!

Another poll - ICM for the News of the World - is more modest.  The Tories are 9% ahead according to ICM but that's 6% more than the previous survey by that pollster.

Another survey for The Sunday Telegraph does not have headline voting figures but does record a big thumbs down from the voters for Mr Darling's budget.

More as we get it...

Sunday Times link.

News of the World.

Comments

[Sammy Finn]

Strewth!

[Derek Green]

Only 16%? Just shows how many are dependent on this discredited Government !

[Derek Green]

Only 16%? Just shows how many are dependent on this discredited Government !

[Donal Blaney]

I wonder if Ed Balls' reaction to these polls will be "so what?"

[TFA Tory]

Higher taxes are unpopular! Think how far ahead we would be if we made case the for tax cuts and leaving the EU!

[David Sergeant]

I am really cheered up to see, re the budget, people are no longer prepared to believe Labour any more without carefully looking at the small print. Boy this is progress.

[michael mcgough]

Others + 3% to 14% then in "you gov " just behind LibDems.

The disparity between this and the 9% in ICM polls proves you shouldn't get too excited!

[MrB]

I know its not intentional but TFA Tory's comment made me laugh out loud!

These are impressive polls, I hadn't really expected a result like this. Hope it's not just a blip...

[Dave B]

The Times have an article online.

[SW]

'Think how far ahead we would be if we made case the for tax cuts and leaving the EU!'

Ugh, we flirted with that sort of 'populist' tax-cutting, anti-European rhetoric before, at least twice, and we were about 16 points behind during much of that period.

People's priorities are stability and competence - thankfully Mr Cameron (unlike some Tories.. I despair at how little they've learned) understands the concerns of real families, as opposed to political obsessives, in modern Britain.

[David]

As always, they are just polls, so we mustn't just think the job is done. And in all fairness, Cameron said exactly the same thing earlier on today. But 16%... damm...

[Tony Makara]

These polls seem to be all over the place. Maybe a sign that people are chopping and changing from month to month? Nontheless any poll reading a 16% lead has to be good news!

[Andrew James]

The Yougov lead is astonishing, especially given Labour appear to have been making some sort of recovery over the last few weeks. 43/27/16 yields a majority of 118, according to UK Elect. I suspect that Labour's six-point shift may prove to be an exaggeration, but nevertheless, this is great news.

This sort of lead is reminiscent of leads shown in some Cameron/Brown polls taken before Tony Blair's departure. Maybe they weren't so fanciful after all...

[BUCF]

Not good enough Cameron should have the party on at least 103% by now.

We should attack Labour more, he should also 'man up'

He definetely shouldn't let TV cameras into his home.

If we really want to kick on we should appoint Michael Fallon as Shadow Chancellor.

[TFA Tory]

It seems that only MrB gets irony here!

[MrB]

You can never really tell if some comments on here are serious or not!

Anyway, it seems as if "Smithson's law" (or whatever you want to call it) is looking increasingly accurate. Mr Cameron has had a lot of press in the past week, and not all of it good, yet the poll ratings rise. It seems the more they see of Dave, the more the public like him. Exactly the opposite seems to be the case with Brown Balls and Darling.

[Edison Smith]

When was the YouGov sample taken?

If post-Budget, that will have had an affect. And don't count out the small things - a number of my non-politically aligned friends have spoken about Ed Balls' behaviour in the chamber on Wednesday, and how - as Heffer rightly writes in the Telegraph - it highlights a massive and disgusting smug arrogance from one of the weakest Cabinets this country has ever had the misfortune to witness.

It would be nice if YouGov did some more London Mayor polls - they've been a bit thin on the ground.

[John]

If you had the right leader you would have been this far ahead ages ago! Not for me I’m, afraid, Cameron is a fraud! I've resigned from the party and until real Conservatism returns, I will stay that way..............from abroad!

[TFA Tory]

"You can never really tell if some comments on here are serious or not!" No smilies or "emoticons" available here!

And I just love winding up the earnest, po-faced wets who mince around here posing as "modernisers".

[Jack Stone]

These polls show that all the nonsense we get from this site about what does the party do next is complete rubbish. What it needs to do is to carry on exactly what it is doing at present.
It also shows that you don`t need tax cuts, little englander anti Europe and anti-immigration rantings to be popular.

[AndrewM]

A racing certainty is the party is only doing so well because Cameron is playing it sensibly and not pandering to the Little Englanders in the party. Well done David, you've done the country proud.

[Northernhousewife]

Take a bow Mr Balls
Mr Smith is right. Much has been made[and will be made] of his comments.

After his disgraceful behaviour over 'Auschwitz', it coudn't happen to a more deserving bloke.

That light of foot response from DC on the most difficult Parliamenatary outing of the year, was gold dust.
Mainly because the nerve it hit is not PR, its real.

[Edison Smith]

From UK Polling Report:

The 16% Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have ever recorded and the largest any company has produced since October 1987. There are people old enough to vote who weren’t born the last time the Tories were this far ahead. If repeated at a general election it would produce a Conservative landslide majority of 122.

[Northernhousewife]

Independent words of wisdom from Anthony at UK Polling:

The 16% Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have ever recorded and the largest any company has produced since October 1987. There are people old enough to vote who weren’t born the last time the Tories were this far ahead. If repeated at a general election it would produce a Conservative landslide majority of 122.

It’s tempting to automatically assume that such a massive shift this must be a rogue poll. My guess is that it will indeed prove to be an outlier - the shift is just too large- but a second poll, this time from ICM in the News of the World, confirms a significant shift towards the Tories since the budget. ICM’s topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(+3), LAB 31%(-3), LDEM 20%(-1).

[Northernhousewife]

You beat me to it!

[Edison Smith]

One thinks that if Labour were having a conference now, and had a large poll lead, the BBC would be all over it.

Even when the BBC does mention the Gateshead gathering, it's in the backwaters of Ceefax, which spends it's sole page given to it up to "The Tories are attempting to protect a shrinking poll lead."

Hmm...

[Jacob]

Labour would NEVER fall to 27%. Freak Poll.....

[Philip]

Good news. Not only good leads, but interesting both show same trends, with support for us up 3 points, Labour's plummeting, and Calamity's Lib Dems getting nowhere.

The Times article (linked by Dave B 1839) says if the You Gov results were repeated at a gen election, we'd have a majority of around 120, and that Gordon Brown has now taken Labour to its lowest poll rating since 1983, when Michael Foot was the party’s leader.

But perhaps equally or even more noteworthy is that the article says "significantly" we are ahead on economic competence.

It adds that the poll also shows Alistair Darling’s budget has failed to go down well with voters. Maybe then TFA Tory is right that higher taxes are unpopular! It may well be the case that voters, feeling the pinch as prices for essentials are rising steeply, are feeling over-taxed.

[John Leonard]

It also shows that you don`t need tax cuts, little englander anti Europe and anti-immigration rantings to be popular.

Mmmmm. No but it does show that if the Government denies the people a referendum on Lisbon Treaty and produces a tax raising budget it doesn't help their poll ratings!

[eugene]

Labour just 3 % off their all time low.

I am so happy.

Hope!

[TFA Tory]

As usual, Jack Stone throws around the typical wet Europhile smears.

I am no little Englander as I was not born here. I oppose the EU because it is undemocratic, unaccountable, bureaucratic, wasteful, fraudulent and corrupt.

I support tax cuts because I trust the people to spend their money better than the government which is no better, practically and morally, than a mafia protection racket.

[Sean Fear]

Mmmmm. No but it does show that if the Government denies the people a referendum on Lisbon Treaty and produces a tax raising budget it doesn't help their poll ratings!"

No, no, no. Jack thinks that raising taxes and ramming through the Lisbon Treaty are popular policies. It's the voters who are wrong!

[Michael Hunt]

The YouGov gap may be stretched due to statistical error but the trend back to Labour's core tribal support is definitely there.

I will sleep well tonight.

[Paul D]

Absolutely staggering but one word of caution - OUTLIER

I don't for a second believe we're really 16 points ahead (sadly), the 9 points is more viable, and still damn good news

David Cameron's recent performance, the budget response et al, have been encouraging - more of the same and some back-up from the rest of the front bench please

[Disgusted]

At this stage we should be at least 30% ahead. Pathetic!

Hic.

[John Leonard]

Sean Fear:

No, no, no. Jack thinks that raising taxes and ramming through the Lisbon Treaty are popular policies. It's the voters who are wrong!

So you mean Jack Stone IS Gordon Brown?

;o)

[Yet Another Anon]

and that Gordon Brown has now taken Labour to its lowest poll rating since 1983, when Michael Foot was the party’s leader.
I don't pay much attention to opinion polls, they tend to record peoples emotional reactions rather than a decision in the secret ballot that occurs in elections - usually a winning government sees it's opinion poll showing go up and opposition support go down - this is almost always heralded by the press as being somehow significant, then in mid-term frequently governments have difficulties and this is always heralded as being disastrous for them.

So far as the 27% rating being Labour's lowest since 1983, actually I do recall that in 1984/85 during The Miners Strike, Labour support was shown regularily at around 25%. Quite probably that was exaggerated a bit, the 50-62% showings that Labour was getting in much of the 1990s were clearly also sizeably exagerating things - as were the 50%+ ratings for the Conservatives in 1988 and showings for the Conservatives under 26% at any time.

Local Elections and European Elections aren't much better as an indicator - Labour in 1983 got 35% in the Local Elections and 27.5% in the General Election. In 1989 Labour got 42% in the European Elections and in 1992 34.4% in the General Election. If you take 1999 Labour got 28% in the European Elections and 40.5% in the following General Election, in 2004 Labour got 22% in the European Election and 35.3% in the General Election in 2005.

1986 was a bad year in elections for the Conservative Party, 1987 however saw the Conservative vote increased on 1983.

[Votedave]

I have long thought of YouGov as the most accurate pollster! Let's see what their next poll says before jumping to conclusions on this one!

[Sam R]

The spirited and decisive leadership of New Boy Clegg is certainly paying off!! (Presume these polls took place after the Commons Vote)

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

"At this stage we should be at least 30% ahead. Pathetic!"

I disagree. At this point we should at the very least be 245% ahead. We just need to appoint Simon Heffer as Party Leader, and Nigel Farage as Shadow Chancellor.

On a more serious note, this truly is a great poll. We have seen several polls where the Tories achieved 41-43%, but I think this is the first in a long time where Labours support have dropped below 30%.

[activist]

I have long had my doubts about YouGov and its wild swings.

9% ICM is, of course, fantastic.

[Kentish Man]

Great news.

FREE TIBET ! STOP CHINESE GENOCIDE !

[John]

Wake up to reality, all politicians are now considered a bunch of crooks and do you know what...I agree

[Northernhousewife]

Following on from comments about the BBC, Sky news is reporting they are hopping mad about the ITV slot. They [SKY] are taking a more reasonable line. Judge for yourself.

'Of course, the family theme in Gateshead was preceded by the hoo-hah over the Tory leader allowing cameras from ITV into his home. The BBC were so cross, apparently, that someone recorded Cameron rehearsing his speech in the hall on Friday evening, with a view to broadcasting it on the Today programme. There was a huge row between the Beeb and Tory spin doctors, by all accounts.

All a bit silly. I can't see what all the fuss is about. I agree with Cameron that inviting the cameras into his home was "modern politics". But I'm sure there will be plenty who disagree.'

Thank you Sky.

Dear BBC
Suck it up chaps. You have been Labour's lap dog for so long, you have ground to make up.
Did you think they would be the only story in town for ever?
Did you think Andrew Marr would always have the ear [no pun intended] of the PM and that was all that mattered?
You are as arrogant in your assumption of right to supremacy as this Govt. The TV equivalent of Ed Balls.
You want trust. Earn it.
The priviledge of the licence fee that protects us from the 'dumbing down of the national broadcaster for populist purposes' bought us Jade Goody on the budget report this week.
You want trust? Earn it.
Credibilty gap? Whose fault is that?

Rant over.

[Matt Wright]

Very interesting poll. It might be a bit of an outlier but the trend looks right. We are getting very good response rates from surveys and more people ringing up than normal offering help and saying they are switching to us.

[David (One of many)]

Hold the phone, Northernhousewife. The BBC were essentially threatening to broadcast a recording of Cameron rehearsing a speech - which presumably would be less impressive and rough around the edges - because they were annoyed ITV got an exclusive? Or are Sky suggesting the BBC higher-ups just didn't like what he did and said?

In either case, when you've got a state-run broadcast threatening a political party, that's something to be worried about.

[Joe James Broughton]

National Insurance has been increased for people earning over £34,840 - because one now has to pay it up to £40,040. This means a 9/11 pence increase in tax for each £ over that range.

This is probably well known to some, but to many will be a nasty bit of small print for those who are above average, but not that much above and already struggling with rising costs and taxes elsewhere.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Good on yer Northernhousewife @ 22.44, I am with you all the way, you put all your points very succinctly, I woul dhave left out 'Rant over' - too polite, they don't deserve it!!

[Tim Fell]

I can't help thinking that those who say we should be 30%, 40%, 50% + ahead in the polls are sitting in the Conservative heartlands (or should be Conservative areas, like Finchley etc) where of course such an alalysis would make sense.

The fact is, we have become seen as the enemy, a sinister, untrustworthy clique who are not to be trusted and who only care about the rich, in many sections of our country. I don't believe this, you don't believe this, our policies and records disprove this, but in substantial areas of Scotland, South Wales, England above the Wash-Severn line, in the working classes, minority groups and those generally struggling on in life, it often is the case....this is the reason why we are not in the same position as Labour was in the 90s; 0stensibly, Labour will always be seen as wanting to care, it is just a matter of how competent they are at it.

The only way to combat this trend is to focus on grass roots action in these above mentioned areas, rebuild our crumbling associations here too, speak more to these parts of the country and talk more about being a '0ne Nation Party' ....we must not forget that our election system does not reward most to the party with the biggest lead, but the party with the most distributed support.

[Yet Another Anon]

National Insurance has been increased for people earning over £34,840 - because one now has to pay it up to £40,040.
Really given that Earnings related variations in contributory benefits have all gone (abolished in Unemployment Benefit by the Conservatives in 1980 and in the State Pension by Labour a few years ago), really NI Contributions should go back to being a fixed rate stamp - which people have to pay the same amount regardless of income if they want to be covered, but don't need to pay any more. Or there should be earnings related additions to benefits, it has to be said though that the trend of increasingly using National Insurance to fund universal healthcare and extending upper limits and raising the proportion of earnings reduced did start in the 1980s and Labour have simply continued where the Conservatives left off - National Insurance over 38 years has been used as a Stealth Tax so that governments can claim to have cut taxes on Income and most people have little faith in any of the three main parties that whichever is in power will make much difference on this issue whatever they say in opposition, so I doubt that this has been much of a surprise to or indeed changed the voting intentions of many people.

The change in alcohol duties though certainly was a very dramatic volte face and will have had quite a substantial effect on voting intention.