Labour 11% ahead in post-speech YouGov survey

A YouGov poll of 1,341 voters for Channel 4 News gives Labour an 11% lead.

It's obviously not good news!  But...

1. Most of Labour's gain is from the LibDems.  The Tories are actually on the same standing as they were in the YouGov survey for last Saturday's Telegraph.  If an autumn election doesn't happen there must be every chance that Huhne-Clegg-Laws will move against Ming...

2. This poll has been taken in the afterglow of Brown's big speech and the blanket coverage it received.  That's bound to artificially boost Labour's rating.

Greetings btw from the lobby of London's Dorchester Hotel - I've just paid £4.90 for a pot of tea (with no biscuits)!!  Comment moderation might be slow throughout this evening as I'm here for the Carlton Political Dinner where David Cameron is speaking.   I'll aim to file a report at 11ish.

Comments

[eugene]

£4.90 for a pot of tea! ...and nothing with it! Be a good Tory and tell them where to shove it....we like profit but are not mugs.

The above is a footnote to what NuLabour has achieved...our money is worth zot.Sure it is a posh hotel...but to charge that with a straight face shows that the economy has gone very wrong.

[MHDH]

Oh my God. Any A listers now feeling like mugs for throwing away a perfectly good job to be slaughtered at the polls. Does the Candidates Department refund your dues?

[Afleitch]

Four points of note. It's a 'post speech' poll. Secondly the fieldwork for the poll, I presume has been carried out in less than one working day. The Lib Dems are on 13% If that strikes you as peculiar and far too low you are not alone! Finally, our share has not moved, most importantly it's not moved down - Brown adressed Conservatives yesterday and they said in the simplest terms 'no thank you.' I'm looking forward to our response.

[Cleo]

The Conservative Party must not use this as an excuse to lurch to the right.

[John Leonard]

Another piece of news - Andrew Pelling has had the whip suspended

Sun Report on Pelling

[MrB]

If this tells us anything, it's that the polls are ridiculously volatile. Let's not forget, we have the last word in the conference season therefore the words of our leader will probably linger in the minds of the public for longer.

Soon we will see the end of Brown's media coverage monopoly, and the public will have chance to compare the PM who endlessly recycles policies with the young, dynamic leader who has fresh ideas. I believe when the public have made this comparison we will close the gap significantly.

[Voice from the South West]

I'm beginning to question YouGov's credibility here. I accept that Brown has a lead in the polls, but to suggest that Labour will get a higher share of the vote than in the 2001 election, let alone the 2005 election, is something I find very hard to believe.

[Tanuki]

"I've just paid £4.90 for a pot of tea (with no biscuits)!! "

British politics, like the Dorchester, is open to anybody. Provided they're well-connected, or can pay.

[Effie]

Well the Conservatives might be able to see a real result not a poll if the Conservative MP Andrew Pelling MP for Croydon Central is charged with Assault.
A Tory party spokesman said tonight that Andrew Pelling has been suspended while the incident was investigated.
Is this not a marginal seat?
If he is going to be deselected then what will stop Pelling from resigning and forcing a by-election?
Very tricky situation for the Conservatives at the moment.
The last thing they need is an election in a marginal seat.

[Chad]

Ouch! Labour majority of 170 according to ElectoralCalculus.

What has Cameron done to the Tory party?

[601]

13% for the Lib Dems!NO way.

[Votedave]

I wonder what the polls will look like after David Cameron's conference speech?

He's not had much positive press attention since the conference season began. The parties were even stevens not so long ago - things will change at some point or other.

[Simon Denis]

I - and several thousand others - told you so. The moment the whole Cchange business got going, I smelt a rat. Here, in this and in other dismal polls, that rat is emerging into the open and he has news: the conservative party has been moving in the wrong direction from the moment Howard stepped down. I recall the 05 election in glorious technicolor. I remember the mood that surrounded the results and it did not resemble the gloom of 97 or 01. Indeed, it was Blair who was subdued. He knew he'd lost England. He knew he owed the number of his MPs to a skewed voting system. He knew that he had no moral right to use his Scottish or Welsh constituency MPs for English legislation. Had the tories held their nerve, they could have shown him up for what he was, a lame duck on Celtic life-support. Had they held their nerve the flow of stories and statistics arising from crime and immigration would have vindicated their stance completely. And no, Labour would not have "stolen their clothes" because the Human Rights Act - in which they believe - prevents them from taking any effective action. As for government spending - look at Wanless and consider the waste. The disaster that is the conservative party today is the direct result of Cameron's victory. He cravenly backed down from a number of principled and popular positions in the name of sucking up to the "centre". A cursory glance at British politics should remind anyone of the vapid, touchy, unreliable temperament of your average centrist. And so where is he? Abandoned by the centre, despised by the free marketeers, hated by the academic right, mistrusted by the nationalists and disliked by the old social conservatives. In short, he has demoralised and all but dissolved the right of centre coalition.

They say that when Howard announced his retirement one of his assistants broke down. A tough, professional political operator, this woman wept.

How right she was.

[Andrew]

That's what you get for living in London. I'm thinking of moving, and unbelievably Manhattan is looking cheaper (both in property and living costs).

As for the poll, yurrgh. It looks rather like the weakness of the LibDems was disguised by a temporary counterbalance of anti-Blair lefties. Now he's gone, they're all transferred back. I wonder how Brown's Thatcherwannabesocialauthoritarianism will play with them longer term though?

[Tony Makara]

The Liberals won't be happy about this. An early election looks like it could spell disaster for the Liberals. John Redwoods comments 23/09/07 make interesting reading after seeing this poll.

I'm not convinced that voters will be so pro-Labour when it comes to the crunch. Labour are appearing very smug and in love with themselves. One thing the British public doesn't like is a smarmy set of politicans.

[mark]

Liam Fox popped his head above the parapet today.Where are the rest of the shadow cabinet? Where is Mr Cameron? If i'm reprasentative,there are a lot of very angry,very frustrated Tory supporters out here.For God's sake listen to us!
The polls get worse and all we get is the sound of silence.It may be a very strange analogy but it reminds of when The Queen stayed up in Balmoral after Diana's death.Our party is dying on it's feet!
Mr Brown is somehow succesfully duping people into believing this is a fresh start.People are swallowing it in their millions.What about the last 10 years??? Have they been erased from people's memories? Someone please explain why the official opposition s not hammering home the failures of the past ten years?
The Queen recovered from 1997.She ultimately had the respect of the British people.I don't think they have the same respect for the Tory party not by a long way.On present form they don't desreve it.It's almost like the whole parliamentary party is laying down on the floor to be walked over while their supporters in the country look on in utter disbelief.
Come on! Get up and fight!

[Ian redwood]

But Tim paid for the tea - the market in operation. They know he will pay it so they charge it.

[Teck]

"The Tories are actually on the same standing as they were...." is a sad reflection of contentment with mediocrity, Hey, that's no consolation.

Next, we would be told the not-such-tragic news that we will be away from government for another 5 rather than 10 years!

[Paul]

I hope it's the finest Earl Grey they can find! The poll is bad news, not only are we well behind but the Liberals have gone into freefall and that may mean our great hope, The Ming may have to do the honourable thing. Mr Cameron is going to have to play a blinder next week. Is anyone out there still hopeful we can win th next election?

[Moral minority]

The Tories are stuck with the core vote of a third. Labour is sweeping up the centre-left votes from the Lib Dems and, presumably, the nationalists.

If the SNP is suffering too, Brown must go for an election, especially these figures if repeated with other polls over the next few days.

The expensive dinners, at several hundred pounds a plate, will taste like gruel tonight.

[Yet Another Anon]

If an autumn election doesn't happen there must be every chance that Huhne-Clegg-Laws will move against Ming
And who would they put in? If the Liberal Democrats slip back from 2005 they will be blamed, but having dumped 2 leaders in a single parliament then who would pay any attention to them, they would be lucky to get half their 2005 vote let alone come close to holding the votes they got last time.

[Scotty]

"I'm beginning to question YouGov's credibility here."
You are not alone, in fact I am wondering about why C4 commissioned a poll which was taken in less than 24 hours right after Brown's speech and blanket coverage from the preceding few days.
If they had done something similar during the Libdem conference and with the Conservatives next week we could have something to compare.
As it is, I feel very uneasy about this type of political brinkmanship from a news programme. This was designed to ramp up the possibility of a Autumn GE and will be used to put more pressure on the Conservatives next week. This is about trying to set the news agenda rather than reporting it.
Why didn't they commission a YouGov poll with the normal fieldwork period.

[Dave Bartlett]

" I've just paid £4.90 for a pot of tea (with no biscuits)!! "

Reminds me of the brutal 'price shock' I had on being presented with the bill in an Oxford tea-room. There are prices, and then there are 'tourist trap' prices. *shudder*

[Simon Miller]

£4.90 for tea? thats nothing! remember the tory security pass foasco in bournemouth? i paid for hotel, travel, time off work and the muppets couldnt sort out my pass until the last day. total cost of the cock-up? nearly £300 quid. looks like you got off lightly!

[Philip]

Assuming this poll was taken after Mr Brown's conference speach, it seems voters are attracted to his tougher-sounding messages on things like crime, 24hr drinking, down-grading of cannabis. While we need softer centre-ground messages on the NHS and the environment, we must respond to voters concerns about brokenness in society by promising toughness on crime, drugs and security (without ID cards!) and so on. Woolly socially liberal stuff to win over the BBC and metropolitan liberals surely doesn't meet voters concerns nor convey the impression of principled leadership.

[michael m]

Mark- that is precisely what I have been saying for the past 3 months- where is the "Shadow" Cabinet?

The overt and recent disloyalty/apparant disunity of a few people in the party who should have known better is a betrayal of every one of us in Labour marginal seats

Brown is responsible for things that went wrong during the past 10 years- the NHS- as per the latest Wanless report- Foot and Mouth, the Turmoil in the Financial markets- I could go on and on- yet where is there from the Opposition Front Bench any vocal and perceived reaction?

These people have safe seats, second incomes and frankly the majority by their lack of any commitment/determination to win, are happy to stay on the same benches. Their attitude ia a palpable " why bother?"

The tragedy will be that if we lose again, then we will be without many of the young and forward thinking MPS elected last time. All we will be left with will be a rump of the old dinosaur guard and what then will happen to the kind of party we want to be?

Heaven help us!

What we need is some one with real fire in their belly, who can show real anger at what is happening to our country, who is articulate and who can land a few body blows on Brown's sham, spin and humbug which ordinary people can relate to and understand that there is a better way.

This person should also get angry and in public sometimes with those in the party who do not show total commitment to winning by their words and actions.

Is all this too much to ask?

[Dave Bartlett]

While the headline numbers look bad in this poll, it's worth remembering that all Labour's gains appear to becoming from the Lib-Dem vote. Conservatives would also benefit from the collapse of the Lib-Dem vote.

Where these votes are will also be significant. More Labour voters in Hull will not be much of a help to Labour.

[Oddball]

Re: Cleo at 19.22

"The Conservative Party must not use this as an excuse to lurch to the right."

The Conservative Party MUST use this as an excuse to lurch to the right. It has worked splendidly for Mr Broon has it not?

[MrB]

The people, like Simon Denis, shouting "Told you so, shouldn't have elected Dave- it's all his fault" are contradicting themselves.

Please name another person in the entire Conservative Party that would now be AHEAD in the polls. Howard, Davis, Redwood or Fox you say? Since most of the votes have gone from the LibDems to Labour, I hardly think any of these leaders would be doing better.

I know its an awful poll but stop using any flimsy argument you can think of to undermine our leader.

[Moral minority]

I have watched Jeremy Paxman, on Newnight, take David Milliband apart over Burma. Milliband was either not briefed, lying or both. He looked like a sixth former caught out by his teacher.

Typically, Michael Crick, Newsnight's in-house Labour luvvie, is now fawning over Milliband's speech.

[Goldie]

If Brown doesn't go to the country now, he's a fool.

[Malcolm Dunn]

I wouldn't question YouGov credibility chaps they've been pretty good in the past. It is obviously extremely disappointing but the Lib Dems have had an absolutely useless conference and are paying the price.
All I can hope is that those who don't want Brown as Prime Minister work as hard as possible to make our conference a success and that every last one of us works as hard as possible in our constituencies and that the Shadow Cabinet actually do some work and get the Conservative message out.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Totally right Mr B . Simon Denis' post was utterly pointless.We are where we are. If Simon thinks Mr Brown would make a better PM then he should go of and vote for him. If he doesn't, then he should do everything in his power to help David Cameron. It's the only choice that he or anyone else has.

[Dale]

PERSONALISED ATTACK COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR

[Steve Green]

I have come to the conclusion that the opinion polls that have been published over the last three months are a total and utter load of codswallop. I don't know of anyone who is not annoyed in some way or other with Gordon Brown. If you don't believe me go to the BBC News site and have a look at the Have your say section on Gordon's speech. I only got as far as reading the first 15 comments, but every single one was exceedingly critical of Brown's speech and his governance. I've got no idea who is being polled, but I doubt very much that the people selected are a accurate cross section of public opinion. The BBC News site is far from being pro-Tory and from reading the comments it is abundantly clear that Brown is far from popular.

I hope that Gordon will call an early election. He will lose, and lose badly.

[Moral minority]

Mr B, the only alternative to Cameron is William Hague - whom you failed, probably deliberately, to mention. Friends and relatives say that they would prefer him to be our Leader. He has learned from past experience, experience that Cameron obviously lacks.

[Tony Makara]

"Is anyone out there still hopeful we can win the next election?"

Most definately yes. When the general election comes Gordon Brown will have his broken promises hung out on the washing line every day of a three week campaign. The exposure will expose him. At the moment Labour are getting away with it but that can't last. Interesting to note how Brown is completely dis-associating himself from the political process, as if to appear above it all. Thats because he fears being exposed as being the prime mover in the last ten years of Labour failure. Don't worry Brown can't keep this aloofism up forever. Once he is back in parliament reality is going to kick in for failed Gordon.

[christina]

Don't get too excited about this YouGov poll please. Firstly YouGov normally compensates for its skewed universe in drawing its sample by using a sample twice the size of the others. This was a very small sample for them. (35% less than usual)

Secondly we have no idea if the DKs, Won;t says, or won 't votes changed at all.

Thirdly we do not know the question posed , the sequence of questions that preceded it (eg did they first ask about the speech itself, thus drawing attention to it?)

"Dodgy polling" is possible as is a leading questionnaire and "skewed reporting" written all over it,

Wait till we've had the full figures not this "headline" rubbish - PLEASE

[voreas06]

Moral Minority "I have watched Jeremy Paxman, on Newnight, take David Milliband apart over Burma. Milliband was either not briefed, lying or both. He looked like a sixth former caught out by his teacher."

Yes, he looked totally out of his depth in fact I think both he and Brown are clueless on foreign policy which is truly frightening. It has got to be said the best thing about the Paxman interview was where Miliband was trying to act tough. He had obviously watched Noel Gallagher and decided that he was the role model for toughness, but ironically his limp-wristed attempt remended me of the line in the Blur song "Charmless Man" where the lyrics go 'he would have liked to have been Ronnie Kray, but nature didn't make him that way.' Definately the funniest Paxman Interview I have seen in ages.

[Oberon Houston]

Brown won't call an early election. Firstly he is running out of time, and he will be gambling on how our conference goes if he goes before early October. The other reason he won't is that he is instinctively cautious, and has drawn back from risky decisions time and time again historically. Thirdly, they need more funds - much more.

His speech was typical Brown - all sound-bites and no detail. What is it he intends to actually do? Nobody knows! How can the people trust him if he is not prepared to articulate what it is he needs to be trusted on? Reform upon reform upon reform, all centrally driven, before the last change is even embedded - he cannot imagine a way forward that pushes power outwards.

We need to get detailed policy sorted out and then challenge Labour to articulate theirs, properly - and then get the debate going. Until then its his word against ours in a game of hot air and gestures.

[Northernhousewife]

Just seen Newsnight- heard about the poll. Thought I might not sleep tonight but I'm abit calmer now I've seen it up close. This poll has obviously been conducted in a rush for whatever reason.Did you see A Neil[Daily Politics] today on why is it Brown's speeches never look so good in the morning? Even the resident Labour pundit admitted late onset dissappointment.
Remember the Budget.

[Gordon Hetherington]

We are finished if that poll is even lightly accurate and where is DC and the front bench team? Pathetic!

[Edison Smith]

I'm not worried by this poll, and was half expecting it.

Coverage of our conference next week will reduce the Labour lead to 5-6%, which I think is where we are at currently.

Have a good cuppa Mr Editor!

[Grendel]

Goldie @ 23.05 - So there is some hope then

[Tony Makara]

Gordon Brown and Labour now are convinced that the public believe we are at a Pol Pot style year-zero where the past ten years have been erased. This may well be Labours big mistake, they are already looking complacent, smug, self-congratulatory, already talking about their ten-year-plan. We all need to keep chipping away at the Labour edifice. Every letter to a local or national paper takes the message forward. We all can do our bit to get rid of this lying incompetent Labour government.

[Jim Carr]

Just wait till the Conservative Party conference next week.
The gap will be 20%+
Please, Mr Cameron, I'm not taxed enough, please take even more of my money in order to fight the mythological fight to "stop climate change".
No, please do.
No, really.

[Mr Angry]

Yet more proof, as if the Worcester disaster wasn't enough, that the likes of Cleo are so wrong that they must be living on another planet completely. It is now apparent to all but those who are incapable of removing their heads from the sands of socialism that the Cameron lurch to the left has been a disaster that has brought no electoral benefits at all and will never do so. Unless and until the Conservative party is led by those who understand what a conservative actually is and should be in the 21st century then we are going nowhere and Labour will continue to lead us in both the opinion polls and the real ones.

The electorate have made plain their unwillingness to vote for an heir to Blair and have also made clear their concerns which, appallingly, are being deliberately ignored by the leadership of a party that is now obsessed with that which worries rich, guilt ridden old Etonians and not Worcester woman, or anyone else whose vote would actually win us an election.

[Chad Noble]

If I were going to announce an election, I'd wouldn't do it during my own conference when guaranteed press coverage (in anticipation) anyway but halfway through the opposition leader's speech to avoid him getting any press coverage.

It is amusing to see that this Electoral Calculus result predicts just 1 seat for the LibDems. At least that will make the choice of leader easier!

[Dale]

'PERSONALISED ATTACK COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR'

May i ask what was personalised or an attack?

Paraphrased it wen't roughly as follows:

some guy said "People don't like smarmy politicians" when he was talking about the labour party, and i said "is that why they don't like david cameron and the notting hill set.

surely what that guy said was a personalised attack so why wasn't his comment overwritten?

[Editor]

It was something about people from Eton, Dale.