ICM poll puts Labour 8% ahead

Tomorrow's Guardian will carry an ICM poll that gives Labour an eight point lead over the Conservatives: 40%, 32%, 20%.

It's the biggest lead the pollster has recorded since David Cameron became leader. He is also rated as the least popular party leader, with a -8% satisfaction rating compared to Campbell's -5% and Brown's +32%.

Deputy Editor

8pm: Ben Brogan asks 'Will Gordon cut and run?'

Comments

[HF]

Ancram, Bercow and Mercer. I duess these twerps will be off MP and PPCs xmas card list?

Gummer and Goldsmith providing ammo to Mail headline writers as predicted.

Nuff said?

GE now more likely?

[john]

Thanks to Michael Ankram,the headbangers really need to make their minds up to shut up or lose.

[MrB]

On the face of it this does look to be an extremely bad poll for us, from a trusted pollster. We need the background info on this poll though, most importantly, when it was carried out.

I normally try to be positive about the party and its leadership, but this poll is very worrying. Why are the public falling for Brown's spin? It is one of the things Cameron is most attacked on, yet if you look at Brown, he far surpasses DC on spin.

The conference will be make-or-break time, I believe....no doubt Brown has some dirty trick up his sleeve though.

[activist]

ICM are the pollster I most trust and this is a really dreadful poll. But it is just one poll. I cannot believe that a run on a British bank can be good for Brown once the news has had time to settle.

The DC rating is completely out of step with all other pollsters vs Ming, so it doesn't bother me like the headline figures do.

[Umbrella man]

There will be an autumn election.

I'm off to the betting shop.

[activist]

By "one poll" I mean one set of polls. There are three bad ones out tonight including Populus in the Times, see Brogan.

I remain confident we will wipe out Labour's majority in any autumn election.

[Felixstowe fiddler]

Anyone going out and talking to the "man in the street" will be told the reason why - rightly or wrongly, Joe Public likes and trusts Brown while Cameron is regarded as ethereal and demonically possessed by the green agenda.
Voters are selfish - and any party telling them they will suffer direct and indirect tax increases to save the planet will suffer. We all think the Lib Dems are barmy, but I'm afraid the voters think we are as well.
An October 25 election - perhaps. It would certainly devastate the Conservatives but I still think Brown is not that adventurous. Let's hope so or otherwise we face another 10 years in the wilderness and by Christmas we will be plunged into yet another leadership crisis from an even smaller pool of MPs.

[Afleitch]

It believe it was a poll taken during the 'quiet period' between the furore over crime (and how easily the public forget)and the NR debacle; it's very difficult to make any call as to what it means. Labour are up 1, the Conservatives down 2 and the Lib Dems up 2. To be honest as the polls move into the Labour conference things may get worse.

The important thing is - stay calm. Have a little self discipline or else we won't be given a chance by the media by the time our conference rolls along. If Labour can keep quite even as Gordon aggrivates the left and the unions, surely we can do too. For once.

[Cleo]

The party has to stick to the centre ground and unite. This is not the time to lurch to the right and go on about immigration.

[Andrew Woodman]

The poll is pretty terrible. I can't believe Campbell is more popular than Cameron though!

Any idea when the poll was taken?

[Will]

Further taxing people's cars and their holidays when everyone believes they pay too much tax isn't popular - what a shocker!

[Michael Davidson]

No surprise. Until Cameron steps down as leader, the polls will always be like this.

[Traditional Tory]

Why are the public falling for Brown's spin? It is one of the things Cameron is most attacked on, yet if you look at Brown, he far surpasses DC on spin.

Not sure about Brown but Cameron is 100% spin, and I think the novelty of the 40-year old 'youngster' has now gone as flat as a glass of last night's champagne.

I am not going to pretend I ever liked Cameron, but at least when he began his reign I assumed that he was a 'genuine' TRG type with an internally coherent set of lefty principles.

Of course there was his authorship of the allegedly far-right manifesto, but it was not until Peter Hitchens's TV expose that I learned that when Cameron first became an MP he was openly portraying himself as a right-winger ('advocates of gay marriage loonies' etc)

So...thin on principles; thin on just about everything else.

[Richard]

What were the poll numbers when IDS was forced out?

Cameron's ideas have failed so badly that the only thing that can help the Conservatives is an economic meltdown.

[activist]

Don't bet on it! Traditional Tory will be along any moment :)

[Effie]

I must admit I am really surprised with these polls myself. I thought by now that the gap would have closed.
For what it is worth, I honestly believe this country needs a good opposition. We are simply not getting it.
I have never trusted or liked Cameron since the word go. The reason being he has changed all his principles far too quickly just to get elected. He is seen as say anything do anything get elected at any price.
Follow the Blair script to the letter and proclaim he is "heir to Blair" just at a time when everybody was glad to see the back of Blair.
What I cannot understand is this... David Davis a solid politician, who knows working class people inside out having been brought up by a Single Mother on a Council Estate.
He is not the best Speech Maker but the guy is a conviction politician through and through.
He will learn to deliver speeches easier than Cameron will understand the working/middle classes in this Country.
Yet you all hang on to Cameron while a person who is worth 10 of him sits on the sidelines.
This does not make sense to me, keeping a talker instead of a doer.
If you cannot see the way the cookie is crumbling heaven help us all.
What are you all going to do wait for another disaster then get Davis in?

[Jonathan]

I am sure there will be an election announced at the end of the Labour conference and that we will lose heavily.

Please will the right now keep quiet as i intend to do so that the full blame for this debacle can rest squarely where it is deserved on the modernisers and there obsessions.

[Follower of Will]

Difficult game politics isn't it ?

Apprarently you need a Central Office full of apparachiks and a highly paid PR team NOT to realise it the bleedin obvious.

Deep, dark, despair.

[Steve Green]

What a load of rubbish. I cannot believe this poll is anywhere near accurate. The libDems up 2 per cent - After all the rubbish Ming has bees spouting of late? The LibDem Bloggers are up in arms, let alone the public.

[scott]

These are difficult times, in the late summer I really thought things would have started to pick up by mid-september. Here in Scotland, i can't see us getting ANYWHERE. I think it will be and out and out SNP - Labour brawl.

sigh....

[bluepatriot]

Noone should over-react to this. THIS IS JUST ONE OPINION POLL. Let's wait until the first one after the Northern Rock fallout...

[david]

Northern Rock will only improve GB's ratings, everyone is blaming the directors and the morons who rushed to the doors.

So whose going to do the decent thing, 'The quiet man is here to stay and he's turning up the vol....aaaaah' David Davis standby your party needs you.

[john]

Just look back at the TV images of the past few days of financial crisis,you have DArling versus Osborne,game over.

Whilst I am sure that Osborne is intelligent etc (so to is Oliver Letwin) he just doesn't come over as convincing.
Long overdue that we had a heavyweight in this key position.

[HF]

How can we be an effective opposition with the shower we have as MPs? The problem is not Leadership, the problem is the MPs.

FFS Cameron cannot do it on his own. Too many part timers in the shadow cabinet who are just not opposing this Govt.

After the next GE, every Association should review its MP. CCHQ will not do it, the Chief Whip is clearly incapable so it falls to each Association to do it. Any lazy, off message, ineffective MP needs to be shifted out.

Just look at all the useless bed blockers.

[john]

bluepatriot

This poll was conducted between the 13th to 16th September in the midst of all the Northern Rock queues and before the government guaranteed savers money.

Its not one poll its 3 that will be published tomorrow all bad.

[Comstock]

"Any idea when the poll was taken?"

Indeed, Andrew. It would be interesting to whether this was before or after Gummer-Goldsmith..

[Andrew Woodman]

;Whilst I am sure that Osborne is intelligent etc (so to is Oliver Letwin) he just doesn't come over as convincing.

Long overdue that we had a heavyweight in this key position.'

That is becoming very apparent John. I can't help feeling that Cameron is gaining a reputation of not understanding the average person in the street, and so to balance this he would be better having a heavyweight figure who appears to be more in tune with the common man as his shadow Chancellor. For all his Pro EU faults, someone like Ken Clarke would be ideal in the role.

[Cleo]

An election must soon be looming and the party has a choice. It can focus on the things that matter to voters: hospitals, schools, crime, the environment and win seats or it can go backwards and focus on the core issues such as Europe,immigration, grammar schools and be lucky to hold onto the seats it has.

[michael m]

Will someone please tell me where the Front Bench of the Party has been during the past few days
We have had the Wanless news on the NHS, more Foot and Mouth, a banking crisis and all we have got is how Brown and his pals are going to solve it. Even tonight's BBC News was loaded by the Labout Spin machine when it came to what they are doing about the NHS- words came out of the newsreader's script as though it was written by the Labour party.

All these open goals and we hear so little from our team- when they did surface there was no real impact- one of them could have at least shown some passion and anger at the country we have become. Pathetic- no wonder Brown is 8% up!!

[TD]

Further proof of how the actions of selfish members obsessed by the "loss" of a grammar schools policy the party hadn't had for decades have done serious damage to our chances of reelection.

[Michael Davidson]

Selfish members TD? Selfish for standing up for conservative values? Cameron should never have attacked grammar schools in the first place - that was his fault, not ours.

[Follower of Will]

You're having a laugh TD.

If silly Willetts' had kept his gob shut and not tried to 'large' his new touchy feely c**p on us all then no-one would have retaliated.

Get you own house in order before sounding off.

[Cleo]

Maybe one more big loss will make the party realise that it has to change. Or maybe we need a new progressive centre-right party in British politics.

[Tony Makara]

Felixstowe fiddler, Sadly, I think you are right about voters being selfish. I've been trying to get one of my sisters, a disaffected Labour supporter, to vote Conservative. I went through a whole range of Conservative policies and Labour failings, took her to the Conservative website, really made an effort of trying to convert her. After all that she turned around and said "But what are the Conservatives going to do for me!" I must admit I felt a bit deflated. I suppose while we do what we think is best for our country others have a more egocentric view.

[support the strivers]

Dear Fellow Conservatives,

It's just one poll - please don't do the Labour Party's work for it by knocking our current leaders. There was definitely massive change and "moving with the times" that both needed to happen to the Party and DC to his absolute credit has delivered them. He's not from my wing of the Party but, you know, he's the best chance we've had for a long long time and I'm not about to start sniping against him.

Note the Labour supporters on this thread and their negative positioning trying desperately to drive us into territory which they perceive as votelosing.

Well, guys, it won't work, we won't fall for it and, by the way, aren't your jobs as paid full time trolls sort of demeaning?

[Tanuki]

Tony Makara's sister has it 100% correct when she asks "But what are the Conservatives going to do for me?".

Enlightened, empowered self-interest is the underlying vehicle we need to embrace if we want any chance to win the next election [whenever it comes]. We need to tell both our heartland supporters - and those who have aspirations to better themselves - that a Conservative government will make them richer. Forget the eco-taxes nonsense - instead, offer people pervasive tax-cuts. That's a hard in-their-pocket way to show them we care about their personal wellbeing.

Trust me on this.

[Dave Bartlett]

The only way these numbers make sense is if the survey was taken while the news was full of the wackier parts of the Gummer/Goldsmith thing. I very much doubt that any of those will find their way into a conservative manifesto.

[Steve Green]

The only people who are going to benefit from pulling down Cameron and the shadow cabinet are Labour. If you are not a troll then you are only damaging your own party. You don't see Labour Bloggers slagging off Labour policy or Gordon Brown and they are both crap. We need unity, we need to tell the country through blogs like this why our policies are so great, not pull them apart.

If there is any hint of a leadership election Gordon Brown will call an early general election without delay while our membership is polarised. Cameron was voted in and is our best chance of winning. If you are a conservative supporter then start supporting and stop criticising.

[Stephen Tolkinghorne]

I like the claim that "It's just one poll". It's now becoming routine, every new poll out shows the Tories slipping further and further behind. Just when one is produced which shows the gap down to just three percentage points, several more come along to re-inforce the point that it's, infact, six or seven points behind.

Bearing in mind that the Tories have to get about a 10% lead over the Labour party, you're looking for a swing of 16 - 17 %. I'm afraid that it isn't going to happen under David Cameron. He's tried his PR flannel, it's failed - and he's nothing left to offer.

Cameron is now simply a side-show in British politics - one largely derided and ignored. He's sunk and he's dragging the Tories down after him.

[Stephen Tolkinghorne]

COMMENT OVERRIDDEN FOR BEING BY A UKIP SUPPORTER WHO'S ALREADY HAD HIS SAY.

[karen]

Lets all get a grip. I have been out canvassing tonight and people are nervous about their savings whether or not in Northern Rock, house prices, and the economy. DC is our leader. Lets get behind him and get on with the job we all signed up to do BEAT LABOUR!!!!!

[Malcolm Dunn]

A very ,very bad poll from a respected pollster. Anyone who actually wants to see Brown beaten must strive for unity. We desperately need a good conference and some meat on the bones in policy direction.

[Scotty]

Tony Mankara, asked a friend recently what the party needed to do to get them to look at the Conservatives as alternative to Labour.
Answer was simple and direct.
Stop bl**dy fighting amongst yourselves!!!

"Further proof of how the actions of selfish members obsessed by the "loss" of a grammar schools policy the party hadn't had for decades have done serious damage to our chances of reelection."
I agree, and at the end of the day if a bunch of MP's in safe seats want to cause an unnecessary fight over a policy we did not reintroduce in 18 years, they aren't hungry enough for power.

[Edison Smith]

God knows what's going on.

It seems like one step forward and two back in the polls at the moment.

Quite surprised. I was expecting 38/36 maybe.

As UK Polling Report suggest, it seems peoples views of Labour have IMPROVED with Northern Rock and not taken a nose-dive at all.

I'm definitely beginning to feel Osborne is not the man for Shadow Chancellor.

[Radical Tory]

I knew Project Cameron would all end in tears. People just don't trust him, now it doesn't matter what he talks about because people just don't buy it.

The best we can hope for now is an early election so we can get the defeat over with, get rid of Cameron and start all over again.

8 points behind in the middle of a financial crisis. Pathetic. Don't get your hopes up either, two other polls out soon are disappointing and Brown will have a boost from his conference and will seek to undermine the tory conference. For all we know he could have a tory MP about to defect on the eve of our conference.

The issue now is not if we win or lose but by how much will we lose. Electoral calculus shows that on this poll Labour would increase their majority to 128 and we would lose seats (a fall from 209 seats to 197). Even if this is an exaggeration its still a big defeat.

[Voice from the South West]

Oh dear!

Looks like an October election (called next week at the Labour Party Conference) is all but inevitable. However a couple of thoughts, I find it extremely unlikely that Labour would poll 40%, in fact I think they will struggle to get into the high thirties. Secondly, a General Election campaign always takes a life of its own. Although this one individual poll is bad, very bad for us, to assume that everything is all over and that we're doomed to a heavy defeat would also be silly. I admit that I struggle to see us winning a majority, but on the other hand it is not out of the question to reduce and even wipe out Labour’s majority. If that were to happen then Brown would be left to cling onto office with the support of the Lib Dems, and he would be humiliated. So its not over yet for us by any means.

[Voice from the South West]

BTW - Does anyone know when Populus are going to publish their full survey results? There was a piece about Ming Campbell in the Times two days ago; I thought that a full survey was going to follow. Anyone got any more news on this?

[Radical Tory]

By the way some good news: if this poll was a GE than Rob Wilson MP, the one who attacked Lady Thatcher would be out! Of course it does not take into account local issues but still ...

[Steve Green]

We've had all the policy reports. David Cameron now needs to lay out which of these policies we are going to run with. He needs leave out the ones that have caused controversy in the media and the party. If asked about them just say they are for future review. I understand that David reads this blog from time to time, well David here is a top tip: Green issues are popular amongst political types and lobbyists, the public however are very anti-green taxes. The ones that are pro-green taxes wear sandals and will never vote Tory no matter how green we say we are.

[Will]

These policy commissions, particularly this last one, have produced policies like Lib Dem conferences used to do. Mad items which can be taken up by the press and opponents.

The headlines they have produced will stick, and when the leadership backtrack later there won't be the same impact.

The average voter really thinks we are going to charge them to park at the supermarket or to go a museum.