Live blog on Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by-election results

3.45am: CCHQ statement: "It is usual for the party that starts in third place to end up being squeezed out of contention but in Ealing Southall, not only did Tony Lit maintain our proportion of the vote, he increased it too. During the campaign, five Labour Councillors recognised that the Conservative Party is the Party that represents modern Britain and opted to join us, meaning we now have a solid base in Southall for the first time since the 1920s. Labour’s majority in Ealing Southall has been cut in half and this is the first time the Liberal Democrats have failed to win at a Parliamentary by-election from starting in second place since 1989."

2.40am: Tories confirmed as third-placed in Ealing by the BBC: "Thursday's by-election saw Labour take 15,188 votes, the Lib Dems 10,118 and the Conservatives 8,230."

2am: Labour hold Sedgefield and LibDems overtake Tories to win second place - BBC

11.50pm: LibDems are claiming that the Tories are third in both by-elections. LibDem campaign manager Chris Rennard told PA: "It looks as though Tories are third in both Sedgefield and Ealing Southall. We are confident they are in third place. That is abject humiliation for David Cameron's Conservatives. In Ealing they have made no progress on the last election and in Sedgefield they have slipped into third place."

Comments

[Michael Davidson]

Not good at all.

Cameron's really not doing himself any favours lately.

[Barrie]

LOL if it's true. Camo out and all that.

Of course it may not be true and then the Cameroons will live to spin another day....

[Edison Smith]

Bizarre if we slip into 3rd in Sedgefield - Graham Robb's fought a superb campaign.

Ealing looks deeply, deeply disappointing.

[oh dear]

Slam dunk for Labour tomorrow then!

[Peter Arnold]

Looks like the bonfire is well and truly been lit in Southall along with our chances.

[Cameron begone]

Maybe there will be a silver lining if this sham of spin and PR comes to an end. The country is crying out for a real alternative and sadly we offer nothing more than a fresh face.

[sped]

Robb clearly hasn't fought a good campaign if he comes third.

[Edison Smith]

Cameron's going to take a massive slap in the cherubic chops over Ealing Southall.

Cameron visited the place FIVE times and there was talk of winning it. Lit even ran as 'David Cameron's Conservatives', so it's personal!

Not good at all.

[oh dear]

Seriously, having been to Southall a few times what struck me was how little those at the top seem to know about how to fight a by-election - glitz and glamour have their role, but there needs to be substance underneath all that and that seemed to be completely overlooked.

Poor. Tomorrow Labour will crow.

[Terry Keen]

I sit here from Indiana watching the blog with interest at just over 7PM Eastern time.

If we are third in Ealing Southall but a close third and not far behind first place, then I think that we could claim it as a good result.

[Tired Anon]

Why don't you lot hang fire on your acidic commentary of our by-election efforts for another sixty minutes or so? Or do you want to write Lord Retard's quotes for him? *sigh*

[ak23566]

Well "call me Dave" can't blame the "nasty wing" this time. It was their choice of candidate, their style of campaign, their staffers on the ground and even "David Cameron's Conservatives" on the ballot paper. Time to start producing results "Dave" or we might want our Party back.

[Edison Smith]

Terry Keen - Hmm, a very iffy spin!

I'm a Cameroon but not a deluded one. Something has gone seriously awry here.

[jack hare]

i've got 50 quid on labour, come on!

[michael]

well i just come from there.... and we had a projected increase of 15% of our vote so lets just wait......

[Terry Keen]

Besides, we can still win this!
Being third in a three horse race during the voting could result in coming first at the finish line.

[Richard Carey]

The country is crying out for a real alternative and sadly we offer nothing more than a fresh face.

As opposed to offering nothing more than "the same old Tories", I suppose, given your handle...

I'm not paying too much attention to Sedgefield, but my ambition for Ealing was to pass the LibDems in to a strong second - an 11,000 Labour majority is pretty hard to overturn. We'll obviousy see later what inroads we've made on that. This is not a by-election in a Lab-Con marginal seat. At the very worst, we hold 5 more council seats in Ealing than we did before the campaign (try doing that on one Thursday anywhere else!).

After setting the pace with strong early momentum, and importantly picking up some non-traditional support, the result will be interesting enough to keep me from my bed a little while longer in any case.

[Michael Davidson]

Tired Anon - the results are pretty much in so we don't need to wait another 60 minutes.

I'm afraid this can't be spun any other way than a bad night for us. I can't understand how on earth we've finished third in Ealing Southall. I'd have expected it in Sedgefield, but not there.

[Cliff Franklin]

The problem with the Ealing campign was that the Tory leadership overplayed expectation, so that anything but a close second would look to the media like a disaster.

Hence, the BBC are the lefty newspapers are going to have a field day in the morning - as well as Simon Heffer in the Telegraph!

[Richard Carey]

The problem with the Ealing campign was that the Tory leadership overplayed expectation, so that anything but a close second would look to the media like a disaster.

Quite difficult to underplay your chances while being an appealing choice to the electorate, Cliff - although I don't deny the appeal of the underdog campaign if you can play it cleverly enough.

Grant Shapps was doing some sensible media this evening in terms of managing expectations, though.

[Phill Foster]

I was expecting a solid second in both by-elections (obviously further off the pace in Sedgefield than in Ealing Southall), so to switch on News 24 tonight to find we're going to come 3rd in both is a distinct disappointment - and a bit of a shock to the system to be honest.

[theduke]

according to this report this is leaked by the LibDems, why not wait till the results is actually out.
At the end of the day we were fighting huge majorities.
And am I the only person fed up with the constant Cameron Bashing seen here? Over the past year and a half I've seen a huge revitalisation of the Tory party, believe it or not we ARE connecting with people, I'll admit it could be better but considering where we've been for the past 10 years this is a good thing.
I'm not going to say you must believe in Cameron, but maybe give the man a chance, constant complaint is PRECISLY the reason we keep loosing elections!
/rant

[David Walker]

If this is true then I think we can be justified in saying "Cameron out". IDS lost his position after Brent East and this is, in effect, far worse.

The Cameron leadership is a shambles. Shame on us for putting up with it for 2 years.

[Atiq Malik]

I told all resposible at CCHQ that Tony Lit is not the right candidate to win for us. He has no personal vote bank. We need someone who can bring new votes from strong Labour wards (Southall Broadway, Lady Margaret, Norwood Green, Southall Green and Dormers Wells).

In these wards Labour will be 1st, Lib Dem 2nd and Con 3rd.

Ealing Broadway and Greenford Broadway (2 polling districts from each ward are part of the constituency) we will be competing with Labour, Lib Dem and Greens, and it will be the similar position in other wards (Ealing Common, Elthorne, Northfield and Walpole).

One thing strange happened in the constituency Muslim (Pakistani / Somali)community voted for Labour. Ch Dilawar of Chaudhary's TKC (Southall Broadway)has settled score with Lit family.

[Chris Palmer]

How about we wait for the real results - not what some Lib Dem nobody guessed at?

[Tapestry]

BBC 24 saying Southall result is very close.

[anon]

well guys this is a bit of a beating isn't - I think that some of the tories on here need to accept the fact that the reason why you are starting to connect a bit (or removing some of the total hatered that people have for you) is because you are slowly starting to stop being the right wing nut jobs you are!

[Cheshire Blue]

Something has gone badly wrong Cameron's Conservatives don't secure at least a very good second place in Ealing.These are the sort of seats an opposition party on its way to government should be mopping up with relative ease.If the Lib Dems have managed to steal the anti Labour vote what does that say about the strength of the current conservative message?.A major rethink is needed, and very quickly...

[Anon]

You can follow how close we are by looking at the betfair market, which is clearly being influenced by people at the count. Suggests Labour are clearly ahead in Ealing, but Lib Dems still have some chance of winning. Conservatives look to be in third, but even that isn't conclusive. Expect all three parties to be within 2-3,000 votes of each other.

[Anne-Marie]

Why all the conclusions based on what the Lib Dum campaign manager has said?

[Voice from the South West]

I just knew this was going to happen. So much for Grant Shapps wonderful campaign. According to a Lib Dem poster on Political Betting the Tories were nowhere to be seen in the Ealing Common and Walpole wards, which are supposed to be our strongest wards in the constituency. Does anyone know if this is true? If it is/was, then it is shockingly bad to be honest.

[Chris Palmer]

Cheshire Blue, I won't disagree that the Conservative message could probably do with a change from what it is currently - however, a couple of by-elections is very different from the long-haul of a general election.

[Cheshire Blue]

"Why all the conclusions based on what the Lib Dum campaign manager has said?"

The BBC said it was neck and neck between Labour and the Lib Dems.They didn't mention the Lib Dem campaign manager.There's no point spinning now the polls have closed.

[Chris Palmer]

anon, nobody hates the Conservative party, except for left-wing Labour/Lib Dem weirdos like you, and people who would never vote Conservative anyway - so I don't think we really have anything to worry about in that respect.

[The Ghosty of Leo Amery]

Sky say the result in Sedgfield is bad for Cameron.

[Cheshire Blue]

Chris Palmer: I agree, but by elections are meant to be won by opposition parties on their way to government.You'll have to forgive a great deal of initial disappointment, I actually thought the Conservatives could win this one and signal a real sea change.

[Matt Davis]

A lot of the problem in Ealing Southall is that there are so many independent Sikh candidates standing that between them and the LibDem the anti Labour vote has been too badly split for the selection of Tony Lit to have made the difference hoped for. A shame if we come third and a real wake up call for Cameron and Hilton.

[Richard Carey]

TheDuke: I'm not going to say you must believe in Cameron, but maybe give the man a chance, constant complaint is PRECISLY the reason we keep loosing elections!

Can't argue with that, Duke! I'm waiting for the actual results before making a definite judgement on them. I have to confess that work commitments haven't given me much in the way of useful campaigning time in the last few weeks, but I wonder how many of the predictable whingers have pushed a leaflet through a door in Ealing or Sedgefield? Strangely for some in the party of individual (and social!) responsibility, it's somehow always easier for it to be entirely someone else's fault...

[Richard]

Cheshire Blue - if you really think that then you stand no chance. I voted Tory the past 4 GE's and I CANNOT STAND Cameron. Many many of my Tory friends are the same. He is a puke-making spinmaster and the country is sick of it.

[Tapestry]

At the genral election 2005, Labour had 22,937. Lib Dem 11,487 and Conservative 10,147.

If it's a close result, the principle loss morally speaking is to Labour. If Conservative are 3rd (yet to be confirmed) in a close vote, that could yet show progress e.g. Labour 16,000ish, Lib Dem 15,000 and Conservative 14,000, for example.

The detail will be important.

[Common Sense]

It's interesting that almost all the heavily negative 'it's a disaster for Cameron' comments here are from posters no one has ever heard of before.

Wouldn't be Labour trolls trying patheticaly to create a bogus 'Tory grassroots in revolt' story, would it?

Editor - I'd check the IP addresses and give them to any journalists who call you later this morning.

[Richard Carey]

He is a puke-making spinmaster and the country is sick of it.

"Richard" wins tonight's award for thoughtful and tasteful commentary...

[Tapestry]

Cameron is standing firm for a referendum on the Constitution. If he wasn't doing that, this country would be history already. He is our chance of achieving a break with the politics of the last 20 years.

[The Ghosty of Leo Amery]

Drubbing?

[Michael Davidson]

Bad result in Sedgefield.

[Atiq Malik]

Total Number of registered electorates are approx 90,822 and say 25% of them are Sikh (23,000), 65% turnout among Sikhs (14,950) split among all parties.

We have to wait for the final results.

[Richard Carey]

Third place in Sedgefield, in an expected tough result.

Many congratulations as well as commiserations to Graham Robb and his team. It was always going to be an electorally frutrating fit, but from reports Graham has shown himself to be a strong local campaigner and he and his team have used this opportunity to build our support and our organisation in the area.

[Scotty]

"Sky say the result in Sedgfield is bad for Cameron."
Oh!!! I would have said that the results over the last 20 years in Sedgefield had been bad for the Conservative party but throw in a by election and the Libdem campaign team posing as the protest vote and hey presto we come third, wonder why?

Richard Carey, as usual fair and sensible comments unlike our supposed Conservative voting Richard. I have voted Conservative all my adult life but funnily enough despite not being in favour of the last two leaders I still never managed to reach that level of venom for either. Sorry but when that happens you are either in the wrong party or don't believe in democracy.

[Voice from the South West]

Well Labour hold Sedgefield. From the raw vote totals we did not discrase ourselves (unlike Hartlepool). If we've done badly in Ealing that will be more damaging for us...

[Chris Palmer]

Lots of anti-Cameron comments by the Labour and Lib Dem candidates in Sedgefield. Worried for the future perhaps?