The Ealing gamble

Without adequate involvement of the local Association, CCHQ imposed Tony Lit as the party's Ealing Southall candidate.  ConservativeHome received a number of complaints from local Tories at the time about CCHQ's gamble of embracing someone with little connection to the Conservative Party in the hope that it would end Brown's honeymoon.  We did not realise how slight Mr Lit's connection with the Conservative Party was until last Sunday when that day's newspaper's were filled with pictures of him and stories of his £4,800 corporate gift to Tony Blair.  I did not want to jeopardise our chances in the election and chose not to editorialise at the time.  In the interests of the party I hoped that CCHQ knew what it was doing.  When a number of Labour councillors defected one week earlier the Lit gamble had looked promising.  Today the only silver lining of the Ealing result is that LibDem MPs have not got a ready excuse to oust Menzies Campbell.

The Ealing gamble failed.  What of the bigger gamble at the heart of Project Cameron?

Again and again many traditional supporters believe that David Cameron has gambled with our party's values.  I think of the quota-based A-list.  The stop on more grammar schools.  Green taxes.  An effective withdrawal of support for nuclear power.  The ending of any serious commitment to NHS reform.  The downgrading of the transatlantic alliance.  The installation of a community cohesion spokesman with highly questionable views.  Most Conservatives were willing to swallow these things in the hope of them delivering victory at the next election.  With that victory would come the opportunity to introduce the many good things that a Cameron government would bring.  A borders police force.  Support for marriage.  More prisons.  A referendum on the EU Treaty.  More localism.

One question must now be uppermost in Team Cameron's thinking:

Are the headline changes associated with Project Cameron encouraging voters to see the party as more moderate and more in tune with the times (Team Cameron's hope) or are voters seeing the Project as open to embracing any person or idea in the pursuit of electoral advantage? 

I have said before that authenticity is now the number one issue for the party.  We need to prove that David Cameron is strong, serious and substantial.  That he is more than a politician with good PR skills.  That he shares the values of ordinary people.  That he most certainly isn't the 'Sham Cam' that he was dubbed in last week's News of the World.

Comments

[Frustrated Nick]

In a nutshell, Ealing proves that we have just wasted two valuable years trying to attract a part of the electorate who will never vote for us anyway. There ARE no go areas for major parties in British politics.
For gods sake, never mind Labour, we have just finished 2,000 votes behind the Liberals despite them having the worst Leader in their history.

I hope Tory MPs are reading some of these posts because they articulate real frustration that not only are we failing to represent OUR people- who need us- we are not even bothering to articulate their views either, so cowed have the Leadership become by the Blair/Brown orthodoxy.

I am talking about white van man, the pensioners stuck on a crime ridden estate, the young hetrosexual couple who cannot afford to buy their own home. Where is the Tebbit of 2007 ready to go on Today and Newsnight and articulate their views?

We are not interested in civil partnerships, hugging hoodies, closing tax loopholes and strangling grammar schools.

We respect these views but would like ours heard too.

13,000,000 people voted for John Major in 1992. I am not confident that Cameron and Osborne have any chance of getting them back.

Ealing Southall proved it.

[michael mcgough]

"David Cameron's Conservatives"

SAYS IT ALL.If you claim ownership the defeat is all yours.

[Lucy]

I want DC to go. I'm not standing on any more doorsteps saying I'm a Tory. I'm ashamed to be a part of a Party of power-hungry opportunism.

[Matt K]

...spoke too soon, they're back...

[dale]

here here

[dale]

that 'here here' was to the 'I want DC to go. I'm not standing on any more doorsteps saying I'm a Tory. I'm ashamed to be a part of a Party of power-hungry opportunism.' comment by the way

[Ellesmere Dragge]

I see a small rankling above. Good.

Try this for a non-ideology:

"The fundamental principle of the Conservative Party has always been, and will remain, to maintain the institutions we have evolved. These institutions embody the principles of British representative democracy. They include Parliament, general elections, the secret ballot, and personal liberties. They do not include any form of Gestapo, or any variety of tyranny, whether of the Left or of the Right."

That's Quintin Hogg is 1945.

Since then the Tory Party has sold out on "British representative democracy", preferring the oligarchy of Europe; has preferred focus groups to presenting the electors with clear, clean choices; has doggy-paddled on personal and economic freedoms; continues to conspire with vested interests in imposing unnecessary burdens on the tax-payers; preaches localism but repeatedly over-rides it; values the married state at £20 a week of beer money, and has sold out to the totalitarian cult of personality (thank you, Mr Lilico, for that one). Etc. Etc.

Conservative Associations, in Hogg's time pumping the life-blood of each and every constituency (and not merely in internal Party matters), are now the creature of a central politburo.

These by-election results should sent a shiver along the Front Bench, in the hope of finding a backbone to run up. Until this Party rediscovers its bottom and its spine, there is no hope in us.

[Raj]

HAHAHAHA!

Some of these comments are classic.

"Oh noes, we didn't win!"

Well what did you expect? Neither was winnable. To even stay/move into in second would have been an achievement.

Those weren't seats you guys were ever likely to win. So it makes me think that some people commenting aren't Tory at all - real activists would have had realistic hopes.

[Ken Stevens]

Matt K | July 20, 09:47
"..Cornerstone blowhards urging a return to the battles of Europe, immigration et al.."

You may or may not be right.
Problem is that without the Europe etc aspects, the Tories have nothing distinguishable from Lab or Libdem.

How do you propose to differentiate your brand in a manner clearly apparent and attractive to voters?

It certainly isn't going to be done by PR and bezazz. However sincere, articulate and personable Mr C is, we've been there & done that with Blair and aren't going to fall for it again. Dour, stolid Mr Brown is paradoxically refreshing after his smarmy predecessor. If he changes tack and mounts an EU referendum (I doubt he'll tackle the fractionally lesser priority WLQ) then the Tories will be dead in the water for years to come.

I'm not taunting you, as that is not what I want to see happening and I wouldn't waste my time on this site if I wasn't of friendly disposition towards you.

[Tapestry]

In Sedgefield the net Labour to Conservative swing is 7.3%. We often forget to include the Labour drop in the swing (-14.1%). In ES the Conservatives have had a net swing, Labour to Conservative, of 4.2%. Labour’s drop is -7.5%.

Usually the Conservatives are hugely squeezed by the Lib Dems at by elections, but this time it failed, as the Conservative vote actually increased as a percentage in both constituenices. These are in fact the best Conservative by-election results in more than a decade. For example, this is a huge improvement on Bromley, just last year.

[simon]

Oh dear, what a mess- especially in Ealing... I said all along the candidate saga was hilarious, and i'm glad to be proved right. The Party SHOULD be performing better in by-elections. If the swing to the Party was negligible (under 2%) some serious thought about why should be going on at Cambo towers. My gripe all along about DC is that he appears to be too 'ok yah' centric. That will not win us a General Election. Policies that aid people on housing, public services ( ie)Council housing for those earning under £18,000 pa; bringing ALL dental care back under the NHS remit), Europe, and dealing with immigration- will. I echo the other comments here when the only good thing about the results is that the LibbyDems Bearded Assassins won't move against Ming!

[Tapestry]

simon, if you hold your vote constant, and that of your opponent collapses as much as Labour's has done in Sedgefield and Ealing Southall, you have achieved a bigger swing than it looks on first impression. It's around a 5.75% swing to Conservatives from Labour over the two seats. Not bad.

[Lucy]

I told voters in Ealing that it was a close race between Labour and the Conservatives, and that the LibDems weren't in the running. As I was told to. Incessant lies and posturing. What on earth do we stand for any more?

[Matt K]

Ken Stevens: "How do you propose to differentiate your brand in a manner clearly apparent and attractive to voters?"

You're right - differentiation will be the key. Something that Brown is doing bizarrely well at despite actually being the architect of almost all of Labour's domestic policy since 1994. "Change" is a resonant message.

However, the differentiation Cameron should be going for need not be on issues that turn most people off (Europe) or many floating voters away (What the BBC would call "Right wing" issues like immigration).

There is plenty of room for differentiation on issues such as personal liberty (something Labour have done very well at taking away), REAL NHS and public sector reform, choice in education (incidentally, I disagree with the grammar school position, that WAS an error), sound environmental policies and simplified and lower taxes. i.e. a combination of centre ground issues and sensible Conservative policy. No lurches to the right, just sensible policy ideas.

IDS' report was a good start, let's see how the others do.

[David]

"These by-election results should sent a shiver along the Front Bench,"

Well, not really. Both seats were Labour strongholds, the vote held up in both (which I think is unusual for the party in by-elections) and on a narrow comaprison, the seat in which CCHQ was involved in did better than the one that it wasn't.

[simon]

Tapestry @10:16- oh! Nigh on 6% isn't that bad a swing at all! Off to electoral calculus!

[johnC]

My wife, who is Indian, still thinks that there is a considerable amount of racism in the Conservative party and is reluctant to get involved as a result. I have personally heard some disgraceful racist comments made by local councillors and others who should know better. Usually these remarks are made by older party members who don't have a clue how offensive they sound. I think this feeling among the Asian community, often based on firsthand personal experience, was a significant factor in the Southall result. As a party we need to look honestly at ourselves and challenge any racist comments whenever they are made, however flippantly or half-jokingly, if we really want to change this perception.

[Kent Green]

This is a disappointing editorial for a disappointing result

The idea of having to choose between Cameroonian PR spivery and Tombstone Toryism is profoundly depressing.

Come on editor, you can do better than this.

[Mrs Campbell]

There was a huge effort in Ealing but Phil Taylor is right. It is a very different electorate but there were Conservatives who had a handle on it. There had been a lot of work going on in the constituency previously the success of which was demonstrated by the new councillors who were elected in the Spring and by the genuine defectors during the campaign. CCHQ took a big gamble on a candidate who offered himself out of nowhere and it might have worked but there were obvious blunders in the background checking which must be part of the process of selection however speeded up. It is vital that, alongside the targeted marginals project, there is steady work in every single seat. Someone asked where the money would come from for an agent in every seat. Part of the answer is that in every seat there is local money if you go and look for it and part of the answer lies in safe prosperous seats. Ealing is beginning to be well supported by people who have moved out of Southall into Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire. The real damage done by the Lit selection and skeletons is to the confidence and morale of genuine hard working ethnic minority Conservatives of whom there are more and more and who want to help but who would appreciate some recognition and consistent support. Incidentally the same applies to beleaguered conservatives and Conservatives in other Labour seats whether or not apparently safe. It sounds trite but real growth of that Tory tree will come not just from sunshine but from roots and we must not be impatient. Performance currently is simply not consistent and it is that we must aim for

[simon]

Well, based on the BBC's swingometer- a swing to the Conservatives (of 6%) would mean a Labour majority of appx 10 seats. In a marginal by-election we must do better than this to show we have a real chance at the next election.

[Angelo Basu]

I'm not too surprised at the results but I am a little surprised at the mild jubilation that they might lead to the LibDems keeping Ming on as leader longer.

That would be fine if he really was an electoral liability and that with a different leader they would be likely to win a lot more seats. But is this really true? They are already at their strongest modern position in terms of seats and Ming doesn't seem to have eroded this.

[Luke]

Its clear that Cameron's press operation has been poor since he became leader.

We can only hope Coulson improves things - he hasn't been around long enough to bring about an increase in professionalism yet.

But it is disappointing that the same characters who have mishandled expectations in the by-election are still gong to be around.

DC can not afford to stick by people just because they worked on his leadership camapaign. he won that on his own merits not on the basis of those handling his press. Indeed he arrived in power with possibly the most hostile press facing a newly installed Tory leader.

Come on shape up and ship out!

[BUCF]

I do find some of these comments absolutely incredible!!!

Labour seats of over 11'000 and 18'000, majorities cut in half and by two thirds. We came third which I can see why people think is disappointing.

But how people can be questioning Cameron's leadership I find utterly ludicrous, he has been ahead in the polls for 18 months, only just slipping behind to Brown (who will have been planning his first hundred days when Cameron was still at Uni!!)

A lot of the commenters seem great at casting their mind to Thatcher and further backwards!

Can they just think back to May in the local elections (which or unless I am not mistaken no-one has mentioned!) when we obtained 41% of the vote compared to Labour 26%. In addition we obtained over 900 councillors, this is when a wide range of the country were voting.

Cameron is working, anyone who wants to revert back to the old traditional policies should perhaps think back to before Cameron. They might have liked the policies but since 1997, no-one could even be bothered to listen to us.

[Matt K]

Well said BUCF.

[Adam]

The selection of Tony Lit was a disastorous decision by Cameron. Lit might be a decent chap but he isn't a politician and had no idea what conservative party ideals and values were let alone policies. His selection was positive discrimination of the worst kind and sent a meesage to all asian candidates in the party that its not ability but other factors that are important. the defection of the 5 councillors to us just shows how little CCHQ understands ethnic voters and how they fell for an absolute gimmick. What we were saying is that if you're bitter about losing a selection, prepared to ditch principles and policies that you have believed in for 25 years and won elections on, then come and join us - because the current leadership is also doing the same! If we had to have an asian candidate then why couldn't we get someone who is experienced and knew a little about the conservative party such as Kulveer Ranger instead of getting a person who a few weeks before wasn't even a party member and was beaming from ear to ear standing next to Blair giving a cheque of five thousand pounds made payable to the Labour Party?

[Ellesmere Dragge]

"Both seats were Labour strongholds, the vote held up in both (which I think is unusual for the party in by-elections) and on a narrow comaprison, the seat in which CCHQ was involved in did better than the one that it wasn't."

Well, that's all right then. That's written off by-elections

I just cast my eye down the by-elections of the 1997 Parliament, when we were doing really badly and steeling ourselves for the next thrashing. I reckon that the swing against Labour in Labour-held seats averaged something like 10.25%: in every case the big swings were when the vote switched to LibDem or ScotNat. This time round, there was also a swing against Labour. It was consistent with the pattern of the 1997 Parliament: 5% to the Tories in Southall, but 11% to LibDems in Sedgefield.

The message seems to be for Tories to return to their constituencies and prepare for another drubbing.

[Simon Newman]

"authenticity is now the number one issue for the party."

I agree strongly with this piece. The party leadership does need to take stock and rethink its approach. They need to think more about what Conservatism actually is, and what we stand for - not merely the pursuit of power or the 'centre ground'.

[Luke]

Trouble is Hilton's forte is rebranding, positioning and image.

In an ideal world he would be thanked for his services and quietly moved on and an older more substation figure would come in looking to define Cameron in substance.

Unfortunately Tory politics doesn't work like that so expect a lot of squabbling but no clear strategy to take things forward.

[Colin]

So you decided to trust that CCHQ knew what it was doing? Have you that little experience of our party? Whenever CCHQ decides to walks all over local associations it has never paid off. There are far too many people in London who haven't a clue about how local associations and ordinary member work and they don't care. They believe that being close to the leader grants them divine like knowledge and ability and it frequently comes up short. Picking a candidate who wasn't even a member was a disaster waiting to happen and doesn't show how we've changed but how we haven't - another election drubbing coming up fast ...

[Stewart Geddes]

I went down to Ealing on a number of occasions. We delivered leaflets and knocked on doors till the electorate cried out "enough". By Thursday afternoon people were heartily sick of the mountains of paper landing on their doorsteps.

What was interesting was the number of times people on the doorstep made comments about the candidates track record (or rather lack of it) in the party, and these were not party members.

Here is an opportunity for Tony Lit to make a name for himself and to silence the critics. Stick around and work the seat. Seek the selection for the next GE. If he doesn't then all the criticism will be proved right and CCHQ should apologise for the experiment and promise not to try again.

Tony brought a large number of friends, family and other contacts who worked their socks off during the campaign. I believe he broadened the appeal of the party and brought new people in. I worked with them, and it was a pleasure to see the enthusiasm they brought.

If we can harness that for the next two to three years, then we might realistically expect to win the next time round

[johnC]

Probably time for an end to lookism as well as racism in the Tory party. Brains before beauty in the selection of candidates would be a move in the right direction. Also, some record of involvement in the party and understanding of what conservatism is all about would be nice.

[Raj]

Ellesmere Dragge

"Well, that's all right then. That's written off by-elections"

HAHAHA! This is great. I'm getting such a happiness boost from the moronic comments!

No, how about it's written off by-elections that REALISTICALLY YOU WERE NOT GOING TO WIN! Now, by-elections in swing seats/marginals you CAN expect to do better.

The marginals couldn't have been up at a better time for Gordon in some respects because he's still got his poll bounce. He might not have wanted the bother, but really it should never have been trouble for him to hold on to both. But the fact the majorities were down in both seats isn't good reading for him.

So, yeah, it's not fun you were third in both seats. But it's not fun for Labour that they lost so many votes. And for the Lib Dems, well...... anything that keeps Ming as their leader should make you lot happy.

[michael]

By-election results offer no read across for national opinion.

In a by-election it's all about who the voters believe can beat the incumbent...who has the momentum and is the most effective candidate to receive your protest vote.

The Lib Dems are brilliant at distorting the political facts and working harder than everyone else to convince the electorate that it's..."a two horse race" and..."the Conservatives can't win here"

This is what the Lib Dems did in Sedgefield and the Conservatives allowed them to do it unchecked - despite the Lib Dems actually coming 3rd in 2005!!!

So Tim, let's not use these results to try and steer Cameron back to the right. Let's discuss how we campaign in by-elections and why we still haven't learned how to out perform the Lib Dems.

[Richard Venison]

The amusing thing about this site is that there are a load of you who clearly believe you are the master tacticians – the answer to all our political ills. You are very similar to the people who attend football matches and slag off the manager and players throughout the game whilst maintaining a running commentary as to how the game should be played. I can almost build a photo-fit of you. Most of you won’t have been anywhere near Sedgefield or Southall but will have been hovering over your keyboards waiting for the results to come in last night. Apart from the LibDem and Labour plants, (of whom there will obviously be a considerable number because, let’s face it there are few easier ways to stir up disharmony than appear anonymously on your enemy’s discussion site) the Conservatives amongst you probably consider yourselves pretty loyal Tories. Yet you think nothing of criticising every aspect of the Party and its organisation in full view of the nation’s media and your opponents. The fact that you are prepared to do this suggests you are actually politically inept, ironic indeed considering that most of the time you are criticising the political judgment of others. The concept of keeping your disagreements in the family, behind closed doors etc. is a traditional Conservative value of common sense and decency and again many of you spend much of the day bemoaning the lack of traditional Tory values.

The Conservatives have not won a by-election since 1982 and in that time have had numerous leaders, chief executives, chairmen, campaign gurus and dozens if not hundreds of staff have passed through the portals of Smith Square, Victoria Street and wherever the Party is now based. Presumably these people have been uniformly stupid and without any ability and the mistake they have made each time is not to hand the whole show over to some blog nerd with a pro-tory pseudonym. Perhaps that is the answer for next time. Alternatively you could recruit Lord Reynard, but the only problem there is that he might not be quite as successful if his task was other than shooting constantly into the “plague on both your houses” open goal. His campaigns are very formulaic, with the same leaflets, the same distortion of truth and the self-same phrases. Whilst you may notice this formula at Parliamentary by-elections, you only need to look further at local government by-elections and you will see that the same formula often results in them making no progress, losing vote share and even seats. Phrases like “everyone knows Labour can’t win here” are tediously deployed with the result that Lib Dems come a poor third behind Labour and Tories. Yesterday’s result was not a great vindication of Reynard’s campaigning skills, because if you are the third Party then winning a by-election is the one and only opportunity to make your mark and gain any momentum. So if I was Conservative Central Office, I wouldn’t be rushing to sign up Lord Reynard for the task of running campaigns for a serious Party with a genuine prospect of government – you might even be better with the blog nerd.

[Jonathan]

@AS
The nutters are out in force

Nutters hold delusional beliefs and the definition of a delusion is an obsessional belief held in the absence of evidence to the contrary. As I am a doctor if you email me your address I will come round and sign the papers

6% swing was an OK result in the midst of the Brown bounce but
1) CCHQ was mad to emphasise a by election we had no realistic hope of winning
2) CCHQ was mad to so identify his leader with a by election he had no hope of winning
3) CCHQ was mad to choose a candidate that could be so easily be made a laughing stock and had so little connection with our Party.
4) CCHQ was mad not to have forseen the Brown bounce and to programme in some eye-catching policies or stunts to throw him off balance

I blame Hilton, who has got to go.

These results and the bucket of whitewash from the CPS ("Arise Sir David, for thy knight is come") make an October election inevitable. Brown is not going to repeat Callaghan's mistake.

We have three months, one of them August, to pull this around.

[Raj]

michael

"Let's discuss how we campaign in by-elections and why we still haven't learned how to out perform the Lib Dems."

A very sane point - something the Conservatives should improve on. Watch what the opposition do and spring on it immediately if it can be exploited/defended/presented a better way.

[Michael McGowan]

I can only assume that the initials of the poster AS stand for "Absolutely Surreal".

Matt K, I thought that David Cameron had madde it a point of principle that there would be no serious reform of the NHS and public services because that would be too "right wing"?

[salus_in_arduis]

It is to be hoped that Mr Cameron's strategy has merely stalled, not fallen apart, because the forthcoming general election could not possibly be more important. Having disavowed much that conservatives (and Conservatives) care about, Mr Cameron must show the value of his changes in terms of electoral success - or what is his point.

It is clear that Mr Brown is going to revert to type, and adopt an Old Labour approach to the public services, anti-American sentiment in foreign affairs, embodied by the extremely ill-judged appointment of Mark Malloch Brown, and the final abandonment of any pretence of national sovereignty within the EU.

The Conservative party cannot afford to fail.

There will probably be a general election within the next twelve months. One of the most important decisions facing the new adminstration will be action to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, precipitated by Iranian nuclear armament. A nuclear arms race raises the possibility of the acquisition of nuclear or radiologically contaminated conventional devices by Islamist terrorists, either Iranian backed Shi'a or Saudi backed Sunni. The present strategy of sanctions is failing spectacularly - led as it has been by the European Union. Israel is not militarily capable of disabling the Iranian nuclear programme, short of using its own nuclear arms, which it won't do. This leaves only the coalition of US/UK/Australia to challenge Iran. Brown (if the appointment of Malloch Brown is any measure) will take decisions only through the UN. By this means the theocracy of Iran will simply acquire a nuclear device. The strategic consequences of nuclear arms in the hands of truly evil, and highly religious, fanatics will leave no part of the world unaffected. It must not be allowed to occur.

These issues will require politicians with the courage and strength of will to confront Shi'a, as well as Sunni, jihadism. Brown is not capable of this, as the threat develops he will retreat to the comforting illusions offered by the international institutions. Whether Cameron is more capable remains to be seen, but we'd best hope so! If he loses the election we'll never know, and a nuclear Middle East will be that much more likely.

[Andrew Ian Dodge]

I wonder if CCHQ brought in anyone experienced in campaigning in Ealing Southall to advise like I don't know Philip Treleaven who ran in 92'. He (and I) approached the Asian community sometimes against opposition from then Conservative in ES.

How can Cameron have made "great in-roads" when they are still stuck in third? I mean he would have been by all rights able to declare some victory for a second but a third?

He made a collosal mistake in staking so much on ES. Its a tough constituency for the Tories and any basic research would have made this patently obvious.

[Jeremy]

Gordon Brown has been a disaster for this country. Pensions, Taxes, war, you name the problem he has had his oily mitts as Chancellor all over it. He has turned us in to an overtaxed illiberal hell.
With David we have someone who has the potential to restore much of the value that made us great.
The lesson we must learn from Labour is one of discipline. To win elections Labours machine ensure everyone was on message. So please if we want to see an end to this miserable government, STOP THE WHINGEING ESPECIALLY FROM THE SHIRES, BACK THE LEADER , SUPPORT, SUPPORT SUPPORT. The “Good old days” such as they were are gone, and thank goodness. I remember doing business under Thatcher it was not great. Give me Cameron any time.

[changetowin]

We should all calm down.

The result in Ealing was not a disaster. We were third and we remained third, increasing our share of the vote.

Not a good result, but not a disaster. Of course, we must learn all we can from the campaign and improve in future.

But I really must take issue with the notion that somehow if we had a different candidate or were more right-wing, we would have done better. The point is surely that we are still at the beginning of a journey in places like Ealing - proving to people who don't trust us that we have really changed. This will be a long process, but it is nevertheless a process we must continue. The very worst thing to do would be to turn back to our old ways - this is just what our opponents are aching us to do AND what too many people in Ealing suspect we will do.

You don't turn around perceptions overnight, so you can't turn around perceptions in a place like Ealing overnight. David Cameron is on the right track and he must have the courage to stick to it - courage that eluded Hague, IDS and Howard. The right wing fantasy island may be alive and well on this site, but it doesn't exist in real Britain.

The message remains stark: modernise, or die.

[Puck]

As Sunrise turned to Sunset before it even Lit us up, I have only these parting words to offer:

"If we shadows have offended,
think but this; and all is mended
that you have but slumbered here
while these visions did appear
and this weak and idle theme
no more yielding but a dream.
Gentles--do not reprehend
if you pardon, we will mend.
And, as I am an honest Puck
if we have unearned luck.
Now to scape the serpents tongue.
We will make amends ere long
else the Puck a liar call.
So--goodnight unto you all.
Give me your hands if we be friends.
And Robin shall restore amends."

Puck.
Midsummer Nights Dream
(in the morning all Tories will be well again)

[michael]

Thanks Raj. It was frustrating in Sedgefield, because as Richard says in his post, Lib Dems use the same formula in every by-election - only the name of the candidate changes.

So why wasn't the Party ready to counter this? Apart from one leaflet at the end of the campaign in an attempt to set out the facts, the Lib Dems were given a free run to push us into third.

Not having the organisation, hunger and determination to win was one issue and is much harder to overcome, but not anticpating Lib Dem tactics in campaign literature and tactics was an error which should have been avoided, particularly following the Hartlepool by-election in 2005!

I feel that local activists who worked so very hard were let down by Party organisers in terms of by-election tactics and strategy.

[jybyrne]

Given the efforts to embrace the diversity agenda, the Ealing result remains unconvincing in an area where one could expect some success.The campaign was a disaster for central casting and the Cameron/Maude faction.The weekend photographs made the party look silly.

Cameron cannot win an election from slighly left of the Lib/dems. Brown has the money and the impetus to win within the next 12 months. As was seen in Wales the other parties will queue up to support the Labour administration no matter what they say before the election.

Project Cameron is a re-branding exercise.Unfortunately, he hasn't really worked out what he is trying to sell. His problem is that there is no room on
the left for his type of progressive conservatism.

He has no policies that make a difference. Most people don't believe they are in a broken Society. They don't want to be told how to manage their life.

However they might welcome some commitment to national independence, strong defence, rational foreign policy and less law and more order.

[Michael McGowan]

Changetowin, I fear that your approach is better summed up as "modernise....and die anyway." Your reference to the rightwing fantasy island raises the perennial question - why vote for a Party whose sales pitch is that it will do the same as Labour and the Lib Dems but a bit better?

[ak23566]

"I remember doing business under Thatcher it was not great."

1979.....1983......1987.....

[winning matters]

Why did the campaign team talk up our chances in an election that nobody expected to win? This is bad news for grassroots tories because it illustrates that Shapps and Co got excited and talked themselves into thinking we could win this by-election and CCHQ belived them!!

We need professional campaigners fighting elections not talkers. The party structure looks great on paper, but in reality our campaigning ability remains incredibly limited and parochial. Events like this will not persuade members in other areas to come and help as they will not believe the hype. We need to fix the campaign machine on the ground and cut out the rubbish now!

[David Walsh]

As has been mentioned by others, managing expectations is crucial prior to a by-election and it does not appear that this was done particularly well this time.

The Party set itself up for a fall when it talked up its chances so much.

[Simon Newman]

jybyrne:
"Most people don't believe they are in a broken Society."

I'd like to see some opinion polling on that. I don't get the impression that the British are generally happy with their society the way it is.

[Treacle]

Much that was good about these campaigns has been lost in the appalling background checking of our candidate and, once again, in the disasterous mismanagement of expectations

In B&C CCHQ were told before the campaign started that the result would be tight due to Eric Forth's good personal vote and the collapse in the Labour vote in the local elections a few weeks earlier. With the Conservatives on 24,000 and the LD's & Labour sharing 20,000 votes in 2005 the local view was that it would be down to a few thousand majority.

Instead of managing expectations the next five weeks saw the press briefed that our vote share would go up, that this result would be a vindication of David Cameron and that B&C was safe.

Little wonder then that Conservative voters would not abandon their Barbeques or Winbledon to vote or that holding the seat, despite the total collapse of the Labour vote, was regarded as a disaster for the Party.

In Ealing Southall, starting in 3rd place, we were facing obliteration.

We picked an attractive high profile candidate who immediately got good media attention - tragically (and unforgivably) he had not been checked out properly and this rebounded.

But the main problem was once again expectations, having got a good candidate we got carried away with briefing that we might win. When we didn't the modest increase in our vote share from a 3rd place start looked a failure - when actually it was quite an achievement.

I echo the sentiments above - by-elections require seasoned political camapigners working to an agreed strategy, not the part time leadership of MP's who, however good their own campaigning skills might be, lack the time to be completely hands on and possibly the will to report accurately the problems with our campaigning when those problems lie with our policies or with the image of the leadership.

C- must do better