I hope that there will be no Brown honeymoon. I hope that he'll handle his entry into Number Ten as badly as he botched his last Budget. There must be a real danger, however, that he'll enjoy a good couple of weeks - he might even enjoy a few good months.
He'll certainly sack some unpopular Cabinet ministers. He'll have lots of attention and will probably announce some popular initiatives. In charge of the Labour machine he'll step up attacks on David Cameron and try to misrepresent results from the policy review process. There's a real possibility that he'll erase our 3.5% average opinion poll advantage and possibly establish a small lead of his own.
Labour strategists are desperately hoping that Tory MPs, commentators and, yes, bloggers will over-react to these choppy times. They hope we all might interpret a temporary improvement in Labour fortunes as something more permanent. We mustn't over-react. In the mock pledge card below (click to enlarge) I've listed some of the reasons why - if we hold our nerve as a party over the next few months - we can be optimistic in the medium term about our party's prospects. I'm not saying that everything is perfect in Project Cameron (regular readers of this site know that I'd like us to stay truer to our traditional beliefs and to be more serious about issues of social and international justice) but the party has made a lot of progress in the last two years and we must not jeopardise our advances over the summer months.