LIVE elections blog

Enough for now!  Back later...

4.52am: Former and disgraced Welsh Secretary fails in his bid to win a Welsh Assembly seat.

4.47am: Conservative gain Windsor and Maidenhead from LibDems.  Also East Cambridgeshire gained.

4.40am: Tories on 20% in Wales (projected).

4.35am: Tories on just 15% in Scotland.  Let's hope that Cameron will have the courage to pursue that breakaway strategy...

4.24am: 16 gains see Tories in overall control of Malvern Hills.

4.12am: Finally spoke on BBC1.  Been here five hours for thirty seconds of messaging!  The company has been excellent, though.  On again in another 15 or so minutes...

4.05am: Fraser Nelson says a Tartan intifada is underway in Scotland.  England doesn't matter he's saying compared to what is happening to Labour in Scotland. Gordon Brown lives in hostile territory he says.  Too true.  Is Tartan intifada the soundbite of the night?

4.03am: Grant Schapps on BBC says Tory vote share up 2% to 41%.  BBC respond that it's too early to say.

3.58am: Tories retain key northern stronghold of Trafford.

3.54am: Tories doing very well in East Devon.

3.51am: Things are now looking bad for Labour in Scotland.  My guess is that reverses north of the border are going to be the story.

3.46am: SNP gain Glasgow Govan from Labour.

3.45am: Ben Brogan: "GOSSIP JUST IN: Ming Campbell has been spotted in the Pizza Express at Millbank Tower looking in despair. Maybe he knows something."

3.40am: Alex Fergusson (Tory MSP) survives strong challenge.

3.38am: Tories gain in Birmingham.  Now largest party.

3.37am: Unconfirmed reports that Eric Pickles is dancing at CCHQ.

3.36am: LibDem leader one of casualties in nine Tory gains in Windsor and Maidenhead.

3.32am: Tories lose Salisbury.  I know about this.  The council invested in expensive new offices.  My mum and dad - local voters - both said they were going to vote against the party in protest at the "waste of money".

3.27am: CCHQ official "gobsmacked" at 24 gains in South Ribble.  We're getting tired here.  I'm almost ready to retire.  Sam is getting the drinks in.  I'm having a Stella.  Is that appropriate?  Is anyone still reading this blog?  Is everyone in bed?  Why aren't I?

3.16am: The Times feels that the Tory result in Bury is disappointing.

3.13am: Tories win East Riding and Dover.

3.12am: I hear from Bournemouth that we've won control.

3.08am: Iain Dale says (1) Tory gains in north and (2) success against LibDems are main stories.

3.03am: CCHQ tells me that there are now 72 councils across the country with no Labour councillor.  Tonight Labour have been wiped out in Castle Point, Maldon, Tunbridge Wells, Oswestry and Ribble Valley.  Why don't the BBC ever talk about Labour-free zones?

2.59am: Just heard Annabel Goldie on Radio 4.  She expects Tories to hold share of vote but that "smaller parties" like the Scottish Tories have been squeezed by the big SNP-Labour clash.  I don't like our party being described as a smaller party.

2.57am: Salmond can relax, he's got Gordon. [end Sam-blogging]

2.50am: The Guardian got a copy of Labour's 27-page strategy document for ministers' reactions to the results. They were told to first say "wait and see before engaging in speculation" then after more results came through to opine that "all governments experience midterm setbacks". They were told to defend Blair as the most successful leader Labour has ever had and Brown as its most successful Chancellor, and not to be drawn on saying whether it would be good or bad for Labour to have a properly contested leadership race. It said to say the only poll that matters is the general election which doesn't have to be until 2010, and that Cameron needed to make a breakthrough in the north which they already planned to say had failed. They even offered the line, dependent on the right results, that Cameron had done no better than Iain Duncan Smith had, and urged them to emphasise that he was "Conservative to the core". The paper cautioned about the Conservatives majorly downplaying prospects in the North.

2.42am: [Sam, the real brains behind the operation, now blogging while Tim gets some air] First projected national share of the vote announced - Conservatives 41%, Labour 27%, LibDems 26%.

2.35am: Tories gain seven seats from Labour to take control of Gravesham.

2.32am: My brain is huge according to Dan Hannan: "I've just spoken to Tim Montgomerie, the planet-brained editor of ConservativeHome (www.conservativehome.blogs.com), who is predicting a net Tory gain of 600 seats. This is very substantially more than the BBC is forecasting. My money is on Montgomerie! His information, which is being posted in real time, also seems rather speedier than the Beeb's - a neat proof of how dispersed private enterprise is more efficient than any nationalised monopoly."

2.28am: Tories gain Woking (ITV News had set this as a Tories versus LibDem test) and Oswestry.

2.24am: Big gain for Tories from LibDems... Torbay.  Many seats changing from yellow to blue.  Added to earlier Plymouth win this is very good news for Tories in South West.  It's looking like a bad night for Ming.

2.21am: Edward Leigh on BBC says opposition to Iraq war essential for Tory recovery in the north.  Theresa May says that there'll be no change in frontbench position on Iraq.

2.20am: Trish Law holds Blaenau Gwent.

2.15am: "A Conservative councillor in Lincolnshire has held his seat by the toss of a coin. Councillor Christopher Underwood-Frost tied with Liberal Democrat John Birkenshaw after they both won 781 votes in the West Lindsey district." (BBC)

2.12am: Maude on BBC - Tories not doing "fantastically well" but "making serious progress" in north.

2.05am: BBC percentage projection has Tories up 1% and LibDems down 1% with Labour hardly changed on four years ago.  BBC reporting Labour are relieved.

2.03am: This in from William Hague:

“These elections show that the Conservative Party is back in business in the North.  We have taken control of Chester and South Ribble and made significant advances in Bury, Crewe and Nantwich, Preston, Sunderland, Barrow and many others.  And we are on course to have control of more councils than Labour in the North West.  This is the beginning of the Conservative revival in the north of England.”

1.54am:

1.48am: Earlier this evening (1.12am) we told you about our 18 year-old Tory boy victor.  Now an 18 year Tory girl has won, too... Hannah Berry. Congratulations Hannah!

1.43am: This would take the Tories back to our 1990 position in terms of number of seats...

1.39am: Tories take Plymouth.

1.35am: Tony Travers saying Tories certainly doing "modestly well" in South-East... perhaps better than that.

1.31am: BBC people here want to know why this blog has a lot of results faster than them... The wisdom of the crowd!

1.30am: Labour wiped out in Castle Point.

1.28am: Three Tory gains in Torbay from LibDems.

1.22am: Compassionate conservatism in action... I'm sat with LabourHome blogger Alex Hilton. He has no laptop and so he's borrowing ConservativeHome's spare Mac.

1.19am: More good news from the north.   Two gains in Macclesfield.  Sam has brought me some sandwiches and a coke.  He's now talking to Fraser Nelson and Lance Price but I'm still blogging.

1.16am: Labour have lost first seat to SNP.  Dundee now all under SNP MSPs.  6% Labour to SNP swing.

1.15am: Six gains in Warwickshire North.  Tories now in control.  Set to gain Waverley from LibDems...

1.12am: The Express has the story on the triumph of 18 year-old Conservative William Lloyd. (And now The Times).

1.09am: Now stood with The Spectator's Fraser Nelson.  His advice is that everyone should go to bed and wake up to the results in the morning. Very sensible advice that I would take if I wasn't a geek.

1.03am: Mood in CCHQ said to be buoyant.  Eric Pickles directing operations. Results coming in 30mins ahead of BBC. Hague, Cameron, Osborne and Maude all there with staff.

1.01am: Dan Hannan has blogged some initial reactions here.

12.56am: Tories on course to retake Dartford for first time in 12 years.

12.49am: Sam Coates, CH Deputy, is here with me. Whilst I'm blogging on BBC set (not allowed to move) he's supposed to be feeding me info from the radio but I can see him at the other end of the pub - eating sandwiches with Shaun Bailey, Michael Portillo and Mark Oaten.  Has he even offered me a sandwich?  No.  You can't get the staff these days.

12.47am: Latest Rory Bremner joke - David Cameron does Tony Blair better than me - I only do the voice - Cameron does the whole Blair thing.

12.44am: Rory Bremner is currently performing in the BBC pub with me. Brown is like The Queen apparently. He's the only other person in the country who keeps his views private.

12.33am: Gain of South Ribble confirmed.  Congratulations to Lorraine Fulbrook and her team.

12.30am: Labour wiped out in Tunbridge Wells. Order has been restored in universe! Three gains from LibDems in TW as well - confirming early pattern of the night that we're winning against the LibDems (at least in south). Now sat opposite Rory Bremner.

12.26pm: Three Tory gains now in Sunderland!! One gain in Wigan. Also on course to largest party in Bury. Two gains from LibDems in Preston.  Remember: Bury, Chester and South Ribble all General Election targets.

12.19am: Tories have succeeded in knocking out only BNP councillor in Broxbourne.

12.17am: I've just been called a geek by Emily Maitliss!  The things I put up with for the Tory cause.

12.12am: Two Tory gains from Labour in Barrow.  Tories now the largest party there.

12.06am: Early signs are good in the north.  One gain in Roy Keane's Sunderland - Washington South ward (Sunderland) for the first time ever.  Up three in Tamworth.  Five gains in South Ribble.  Chester back in Tory hands for first time in 21 years.

11.51pm: I'm hearing that the LibDems are in trouble in Malvern Hills against Tories but may have won in Mr Prescott's backyard of Hull.  Could this be an early story of the night? LibDem to Tory swing in south but Lab to LD in north?

11.49pm: Early reports of gains across the country for the BNP.  Let's hope they are wrong.

11.43pm: First result just texted to me from Robert Halfon in Harlow.  The ward ConservativeHome leafletted in earlier has been won from the LibDems. The yellow peril had held it for 20 years!

11.37pm: Contact in Bournemouth is reporting strong likely swing from LibDems to Tories.  If this is true and repeated across the country we can be very hopeful...

11.31pm: The Guardian's Will Woodward has been leaked Labour's internal briefing document.  Labour are clearly expecting the worst.  The briefing says: "This was always a very tough set of midterm elections for Labour. However we fully respect the message the British people is sending us this evening."  The document urges Labour spokesmen to focus on progress in the north as the key test for the Tories.  The leaked paper continues: "Rebranding will only work for so long if you actually change and start making the tough choices that means. The British people will not be fooled by PR alone."

11.29pm: Now moved to BBC1's Westminster pub studio where I'm based for the evening. Updates will be more regular again now!  Watch out for a couple of TV appearances...

10.57pm: Great quote from Esler to Nicol Stephen, LibDem Scottish leader: "Whatever way people vote you end up in power." The joy of PR.

10.53pm: Gavin Esler is teasing Alex Salmond about smiling too much.  Salmond responds by saying that the prospect of Labour losing its dominance in Scotland for the first time in fifty years is a bigger deal.  Can't disagree with that.  The charismatic Salmond also rightly attacks Gordon Brown's recent arrogant statement that he would be reluctant to work with an SNP Parliament.

10.48pm: On Newsnight Jeremy Vine is doing his second (?) year as Peter Snow. Averaging recent polls he's suggesting 45 seats for the SNP in Scotland; 41 for Labour; 18 for the LibDems; and 17 for us.

10.43pm: ITV News has sent Daisy McAndrew to Woking to watch a LibDem versus Tory contest and where Labour might be wiped out.  "[Cameron] needs to get into the mid-40s if he's to be Britain's next Prime Minister," she told viewers.  Tom Bradby focuses on weakness of Labour's activist base in his report.

10.40pm: William Hague is representing the blues on Question Time.

10.32pm: Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman asks: "Has David Cameron cured the Tories of leprosy?"

10.25pm: Listening to BBC Radio 4.  A vox pop by Robin Lustig in Glasgow concludes that Iraq is hurting Labour in Scotland.  Wow!  Turning off radio now - let's see what Newsnight is doing.  Will someone keep an eye on Question Time for us all?  18DoughtyStreet is also focused on the elections if you want TV that's more interactive.

10.10pm: Your prediction of tonight's council results...

10.03pm: BBC Ten'o'clock does not lead on elections - but a story of a paedophile vicar that I remember leading the Today programme 48 hours ago.

First thoughts at 9.45pm: Tonight is mainly about Scotland.  We know that Tony Blair will do badly across England but will Gordon Brown's active campaigning over recent weeks protect his backyard?  If he can't hold Scotland can he expect to rescue Labour south of the border?  Recent polls have suggested that the SNP's lead is being cut back.  Much of the Scottish campaign has had quite a Tory and retro feel.  Scottish Labour have been attacking the SNP as a threat to the union and as high tax.  We certainly know that Labour's idea that devolution would kill the desire for independence hasn't worked although many of tonight's voters for Alex Salmond's party want to kick Labour rather than want an end of the Union.

Eric Pickles is expecting something above 39% for the Tories tonight. This is what he said to the Evening Standard: "It is harder for us to get a vote share up in the 40s than it was 20 years ago because the share for other, smaller parties has increased to about 12%.  But we got 39% last year and I am confident we will see an improvement."

It won't be often that we say this but it was good to see traffic subdued on ConservativeHome for much of the day.  Many regular users were clearly out leafletting and getting out the vote.

Comments

[Editor]

It isn't you Richard. The early signs aren't good for the LibDems!

[Martin Wright]

Sky has overall -15 for Libdems so far hee hee

[Jonathan Sheppard]

What a pity. Nice to see Teather defending "mixed results".

[MrB]

Yeh Sefton is Liverpool....I'm living near there in University Accomodation right now. During all my time in Liverpool there seems to have been hardly any effort to make gains here. I haven't seen a single conservative sign poster leaflet etc etc. There isnt even a Conservative society in the Uni. Chris Grayling is our assigned minister...great... an MP from one of the wealthiest areas of the country is about as suited to Liverpool as a Penguin is to the Sahara. Things need to change.

[Lancs Tory]

Only 1 ward gained in Bolton by Tories, Labour gain 2 from Lib Dems. Expected breakthrough appears patchy at present.

[Martin Wright]

Beeb has Con +34 Libdem -19

[CDM]

Sefton certainly has a rather unfortunate shape...

[Editor]

We don't want it to be too bad for the DimLibs though Martin. We don't want them dumping Ming!

[Birmingham Uni CF]

Birmingham Uni Cf are doing some spontaneous blogging tonight on our website.

http://www.bucf.co.uk

[Daniel Hannan]

Here are the resulsts from Swale BC, a classic swing area in North Kent:

Conservative. +2 -4. Net -2
Labour +1 -1
Lib-Dem -2
Others. +4

I suspect that the rise of "None of the Above" will be a theme of tonight's results. See my own "real time" blog on the Telegraph...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/danielhannan/apr2007/electiony.htm

[Richard]

LD just lost 3 seats in Bolton, Ming's days looks numbered!

Bet the swines pull off another Richmond-upon-Thames though...

[Martin Wright]

I'm finding the TV coverage very boring so far. The usual guff just seems that more tedious this year. Is it just me?

[William Norton]

Editor: Why is the BBC so terrible William?

I suspect it has something to do with being a poll tax funded state semi-monopoly packed with drippy left-liberals, but on the specifics:

Jeremy Vine - pratting about with a computerised tennis net. Just a shade dumming down, do you think? Imagine what it would be like if he set out to insult our intelligence.

Guto Hari - Simon Chapman beat me to it; shockingly unprofessional question.

At the outset the studio number-cruncher lady made the stunning observation that Labour tended to win the last few general elections on a better share of the vote than they got in mid-term council elections, so tonight's result would give no indication of whether Labour would be re-elected. Hmmmmm....

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Teather suggests they MAY take Eastbourne

[Martin Wright]

Editor - point taken about Ming

[Richard]

There are Independents in Eastbourne who, I thin, are ex-Lib Dems. Same applies to Waverley (my home area).

Makes things a bit murky if they can attract the Tories too.

[Alexander Drake]

Question. SNP had 7% swing in McConnell's seat. Given leaders often get a 'local boy' vote in their seats, would it not be feasible that the SNP (or anti-Labour) swing may be larger elsewhere?

[Simon Chapman]

"Jeremy Vine - pratting about with a computerised tennis net. Just a shade dumming down, do you think? Imagine what it would be like if he set out to insult our intelligence."

He would probably start making laboured analogies about, oh I don't know, Davod Cameron rebuilding his own hose and re-building the Conservative House

Oh look, guess what he's done.

[Richard]

Have to be up at 5:30 so am heading to bed now.

Good luck everyone!

[Lancs Tory]

Lib Dems have gained back Rochdale taking 2 seats from Cons. Some tories defected to Lib Dems in the past.

Not looking good for us in Lancashire at present.

[Simon Chapman]

On a more serious note, any information as to how Independents are doing?

[Editor]

I know the BBC is terrible William... I wondered why it was particularly terrible tonight!

[William Norton]

I take back my last comment about Jeremy Vine insulting our intelligence - I don't have to imagine it; I've just seen it. He's just introduced some crummy graphic about a blue house being built to symbolise the Tory resurgence. How thick do they think their audience is? Why can't they just say that the Tories need to get more votes, and tell us how many they've got? With the amount of my licence fee wasted on that junk they could have hired a few decent business correspondents to give adequate coverage of the why the economy's heading for a sodding financial abyss. Peter Snow? I'd give the job to Jimmy Young.

[Vote Freedom]

considering the tories are only up by 31 councillors so far. do you think they will rise above above the 400 plus figure.

[Yet Another Anon]

LD just lost 3 seats in Bolton, Ming's days looks numbered!
Important to remember that these losses are against a point where the Liberal Democrats had got 31% of the vote which remains the highest vote they have got in Local Elections since 1923 and even by 2005 General Election their vote was well down on this and then of course they had the collapse under Charles Kennedy.

[Mark Fulford]

You know you're a true Tory when beating Lib Dems gives you more pleasure than beating Labour (even when Labour are the ones you've got to knock out of power).

26% is clearly Labour's bedrock.

[Adam]

BBC reporting Conservatives have gained North Warwickshire

[Martin Wright]

BBC gives Residents Assn as -3 for total of 9 so far.

[Mark Fulford]

Bremner should do Vine imitating Snow.

[William Norton]

Editor: I know the BBC is terrible William... I wondered why it was particularly terrible tonight!

Locking poor old Emily Maitlis in a pub with some dull geeks doesn't help.

Oh God. More incisive commentary from whiny Scots: tight marginal for Labour coming up, can they hold on? SNP should walk it if the opinion polls are in any way telling the truth etc etc. And the returning officer for Dundee West sounds drunk. Probably because the SNP have got in. They won't like that in the studio.

[Simon Chapman]

Goodnight all

[Lancs Tory]

No breakthrough in Bury either. Only 1 seat gained. We were hoping for 4 or 5. Labour lost 3 though including 2 to the Lib Dems but still NOC.

Going to bed now and no longer expecting the elusive 40% share of the vote when I wake up tomorrow!!

[Mark Fulford]

Ming's Bling?

[Martin Wright]

partial results from Thurock per newspaper website. 1 Con; 3 lab; I Ind. 11 wards still counting, so far no BNP

[William Norton]

Nick Robinson's just made a hash of explaining the d'Hondt top-up alternative member system. Dimbleby has just announced that since half of all councils won't be declaring tonight, his programme's a bit of a waste of time. Giggles with the numbers has added that this is because elections are frightfully complicated because of, y'know, fraud type stuff. Rubbish rubbish rubbish.

[Martin Wright]

Thameside Lab gain 1 from Libdems!

[Editor]

Night Simon!

[Mark Fulford]

He has no laptop and so he's borrowing ConservativeHome's spare Mac

Screw Compassionate sonservatism. Pull the plug now!

[Graeme Coombes]

BBC is saying Hyndburn is a Con Hold. This was meant to be quite vulnerable to a Labour challenge.

[Og]

Gosh IDS makes a decent fist of it nowadays. Truly found his niche.

[Editor]

That's a really good result if true Graeme.

Can't do that Mark! :-)

[Og]

Any views on rosettes, folks? Peter Viggers is on BBC South right now sporting something the size of a soup bowl, correct colour and no sign of the fuzzy oak. I was given an understated turquoise job today in the Chichester district with the new logo. I imagine this lack of uniformity will be bothering Maude tonight, as he is always grateful for something to grumble about.

[Daniel Hannan]

Cameron wins! The Conservative majority on the Tory leader's home council of West Oxon has risen from 19 to 22 (full results on my blog at http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/danielhannan/apr2007/electiony.htm)

[nicholas slide]

Just read on here that Tories take Plymouth - my home town. Does anyone know if Karen Gillard lost her seat? She's Lib Dem in Drake ward. She got elected as a Tory and then defected to Lib Dem. I'm hoping she's out this time, but not sure as indy tory stood as well as Cons, so might have split the vote.

[Mark Fulford]

After 59 councils, Conservatives up 61 councillors to 423.

I call that a 15% improvement, which is enough for me to go to bed happy.

[Nicko]

Further to my earlier Beeb rant, how many license fees did they pay that "Political Commentator" woman in Scotland, just to say "I don't reeeally knooow" all evening?

[Andrew Ian Dodge]

I understand Bracknell aren't counting until tomorrow. I wonder how many other places are holding off.

[MrB]

I'm really not sure if we're doing well or not....This blog gives the impression that we're doing extremely well, but the BBC is saying Labour should be "Relieved". Bias on both sides?!

[William Norton]

Actually - in a spirit of non-Punch & Judy - I concede grudgingly that the West Midlands bit of the BBC was mildly interesting. Perhaps the chap reporting in from North Warks should have dropped the football match style - mind you, the Libs have just been annihalated so we can overlook that.

Nick Robinson calling it a night of relief for Labour, not as bad as feared etc etc

[Graeme Coombes]

So to summarise things so far:

Tories winning seats in the North in Barrow, Bolton, Bury, Chester, Chorley, Ellesmere Port, Macclesfield, Preston, Salford, Sunderland and Wigan.

Labour wiped out in Tunbridge Wells and Castle Point (remember that the next time someone says there are no Tories in Manchester or Liverpool!)

Lib Dems wiped out in N. Warwickshire and losing seats everywhere you look.

No BNP gains yet, and one seat lost.

Not a bad night so far!

[Voice from the South West]

Karen Gillard lost her seat in Plymouth - by 15 votes! :-) Lib Dems are wiped out!

[Chris]

Just arrived home after the count in Southampton (Was my first count!) and the feeling was electric over there. Besides the 2 gains we held a seat we thought we'd lose, and held another which was looking shakey! Most amazing though was the increase in our vote share in Portswood, reducing the Lib Dem majority to 200, which is hugely suprising considering it's electorate is mainly students.

[Birmingham Uni CF]

We have some breaking news about Con gains in edgbaston, which could lead to us being biggets party in Birmingham

http://www.bucf.co.uk

[Nicko]

Andrew Ian Dodge @ 01:44
Doughty Street have a very useful list of who's counting tonight and who's counting during the day on Friday - http://www.18doughtystreet.com/blog/154

In other news, the day's first arrests for alleged vote-rigging! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cambridgeshire/6621983.stm

Police cells +3

[nicholas slide]

thank you VOICE OF SOUTH WEST. I'm in London now and my south west friends aren't texting me back! Glad Gillard lost her seat!

[William Norton]

Giggles has jumped in to reiterate some disappointing results for our chaps in target councils. Thanks, luv. Isn't the kettle boiling yet? Go make some tea.

Robinson made a relevant point [2 hrs 17 mins into programme, if anyone has been running bets] about the high level of wasted/disallowed votes in Scotland. Hmmm with three different goalpost-moving Lib Dem cheating PR systems in Scotland, do you think people might be confused by the rules?

[Graeme Coombes]

Labour now wiped out in Malden, Essex. 5 Tory gains there.

[William Norton]

Beeb: Huzzah! Theresa May has just stuck it to Giggles about why she only jumps in with "expert commentary" when the Tory Party misses a target council but is oddly silent when we pull off stunning results like N Warks.

[Martin Wright]

BBC TV was contrasting portsmouth where ther's no movement between Libdem and us with Waverley where we've taken 10(?) from libdem

[William Norton]

The returning officer from Dundee's back. Still sounds drunk. Still another SNP win.

[Adam]

Still no Conservatives on Manchester Council

[Martin Wright]

Still no Cons on Manchester City Council. Libdem took 1 from Lab

[Chris]

Dear god the BBC is annoying me, they are desperately trying to find things to paint a picture of Tory gloom. Supposedly increasing our vote share, gaining seats and winning a couple of councils isn't good enough these days.

We're already the largest party in local government, there is only so much more we can win!

[Adam]

Edward Leigh just been on BBC claiming we've won Lincoln (also said we should come out against Iraq war)

[William Norton]

Signs that the debate is being framed: Robinson, Vine running the line that Labour haven't done too badly, Conservatives haven't advanced much, and - stop me if you've heard this before - no councillors in Manchester, Newcastle, that corner shop Ronnie Barker used to run in Open All Hours etc etc.

Dimbleby's got Edward Leigh to say that the Tory Party needs to call for a pull out from Iraq.

Giggles is retalliating against Theresa May - she's found about the one place in the country where there wasn't a Tory candidate, proves Tories aren't national party etc.

Not much news out of Wales yet - presumably they have to count everything twice in English and Welsh?

[comstock]

Not a bad night so far!

Hardly spectactular though.

[Martin Wright]

Cons gain Torbay! Con +16 LD-14. This per BBC website Sky was giving slightly different figs on TV

[Adam]

Blimey! We've taken Torbay - the Lib Dems have uttterly imploded

[Editor]

True Adam - we have won Lincoln.

[Nicko]

Good news about Gravesham. We needed 2 to gain, and exceed that getting 7 despite two tory incumbents standing as independents (and losing). Sound people hopefully building a sound council.

[Martin Wright]

Lib dems have lost almost as many as lab. Lab -48; LD -42

[William Norton]

Beebwatch: pass the smelling salts - Giggles the psephologist has noticed that Torbay (Con gain: +16; Lib -14; no Lab) is "quite good". In the interests of balance, Robinson points out we're doing badly in the North.

Actually, in the interest of even more balance
the BBC do have a snazzy map

[Graeme Coombes]

Cornstock: I think you are allowing 'BBC spin' to underwhelm the results for you. Oswestry, Gravesham, Woking and Torbay (which at 16 gains IS spectacular) have just been gained within the last 10 minutes.

If this was the other way around and we were taking a hammering, Labour and the LibDems, egged on by Dimbleby, would be crowing about how terrible things were for us. But now Labour are doing badly they are doing their best to try and take some crumbs of comfort for them.

As for the Lib Dems, no amount of spin can hide the fact that they are doing abysmally all across the country (apart from Hull!).

[Martin Wright]

Beeb alleges LibDem have won eastborne from us but no figs yet.

[Andrew]

BBC projected share: 41% for Tories.

Betfair markets strongly think Labour will hold Scotland - I don't.

[Nicko]

Andrew @ 02:36
It's shaping up to be v interesting in Scotland. The last couple of results have had the SNP pushing their vote up a lot, but falling short by 1-2k, even in their third target.

[Josh]

The electoral mess in Scotland is causing a massive jump in rejected ballot papers. From this maybe people will learn the folly of listening to Lib Dems.

[Nicko]

Beeb: Vine seems intent on saying the world's longest sentence, rather than telling us the sodding national vote estimates.

[Adam]

BBC just given projected national share of the vote:

Labour - 27%
Conservative - 41%
Lib Dem - 26%
Others - 6%

[Chris]

41% projected national share
Beebspin: "kind of dissapointing"

Sky's coverage isn't that much better :(

[William Norton]

bEEBWATCH: Oh, here we go, it's Jeremy Vine back again with an expensive toy.

projected BBC national share:
LAB 27% "a relief" +1% on last year
CON 41% "slight disappointment" but "right direction" +1%
LIB DEM down 1% on last year

Now tedious picky argument between the guests on what score each party got last year. Where's Graeme Archer when he's needed.

[MrB]

Is it right though? I can't believe Labour arn't doing worse...I don't think our performance is bad as the BBC are saying. They were always gonna go with that.

[comstock]

Graeme, you are doing OK against the LibDems, but Labour are not facing the kind of wipeout many feared. Thinking back to 1993-1997, the government were losing seats (and the opposition making gains) hand over fist. That isn't happening here.

Torbay and Oswestry are hardly Labour heartlands.

[Adam]

I wonder if it's being skewed by Labour only standing in 60% of seats, and Conservatives in 88%.

[Andrew]

Hard to see how they could do worse - no matter how much of a catastophic collapse any major party has, they're not going to drop much below 30%.

[Chris]

MrB, I couldn't agree with you more! We have Labour on saying "Tories are doing really badly" when we already control the majority of councils. Any gains are great, but there is a ceiling which we are eventually going to hit. Election 2008 is going to be terribly boring I sense.

In Southampton we are probably going to have the first Conservative led administration for 23 years!!! We made big improvements in a few wards, and now we're all just waiting to select the next batch of council candidates so we can hit the streets again!

[William Norton]

Best part of the evening so far: Dimbleby queried Rhodri Morgan's remark that if Labour do badly in Wales, he'd resign as leader. What's "badly"? Morgan says he'll know in his bones if he gets a bad result. Ha ha ha. He can't give a figure because they have PR in Wales and they haven't got used to it in only 8 years.

Actually - 2.50 am and only 4 results out of Wales. Shocking socialist jobsworths.

[Nicko]

William Norton @2:54 - hilarious!

Why is it that the Dimbleby show seems to only be interviewing Labour leadership and deputy leadership candidates on outside broadcast? It's like a free hustings.

[comstock]

Actually - 2.50 am and only 4 results out of Wales. Shocking socialist jobsworths

eh??? If the results are close then they need to check and re-check....surely one time when you need to be a 'jobsworth'

[Daniel Hannan]

Does anyone believe the BBC forecasts? They seem to me to overestimate the Labour share, underestimate the Tory, and underestimate the "Others".

[Graeme Coombes]

6 Con gains in Dover to take control.

[MrB]

I'm not sure about them yet Dan, but maybe thats just wishful thinking.

Gito Harri saying the Tories could be in for a "Dramatic night" in Wales.

[Martin Wright]

"Gito Harri saying the Tories could be in for a "Dramatic night" in Wales."

We're doing "how Green was my valley"???

[comstock]

Bed for me. I don't think this was ever going to be a goodnight for Labour, but it has been far from a drubbing from what I can make out.

I just looked what I had in the blog prediction thread, not a million miles off if the BBC prediction *is* right. Hope I don't win the mug- how embarassing :D ;)

[Editor]

You know you secretly want it comstock. The mug will be a first step towards full defection...!

[William Norton]

Nicko Why is it that the Dimbleby show seems to only be interviewing Labour leadership and deputy leadership candidates on outside broadcast? It's like a free hustings.

Now, fair's fair. There are, I think, about 57 declared candidates for Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, and they all have to have their turn and, frankly, 3am is about the right time for them to get it.

More interesting is the amount of time they've given Salmond. Not sure if this is a UK-wide programme (i.e. is separate prog running north of the border) Mind you, he did get a thumping good result in Gordon.

[Martin Wright]

Per BBC we lost Thurrock to NOC with Lab taking 2 seats from us. BNP challenge came to nothing though they came 2nd in 6 wards.

Per local newspaper website still no result for 1 ward.Presumably the one ward wouldn't make any difference mathematically

[comstock]

Ooh my local results are in.....

Looks like Labour have held everything in Derby , with the Tories gaining one only.

I'm too tired to look ar the details now but at leat one ward in prime semi suburbia (Littleover) I'd expect you to take has been held by the Libdems easily.

LOL at the Editor's kind joke btw :)

[Martin Wright]

Think it's time to retire.

Good progress if not spectacular. Slightly disappointed with lack of impact in Northern cities. The surprise is that Labour are supposedly 1% up on last year.

Goodnight everyone

[Nicko]

Beebwatch - And it turns out that Elaine C. Smith, who's been commenting on BBC1 about the Scottish elections all night whilst being billed alongside the political analysts in non-partisan grey as an "actress" is actually an SNP activist and member...