This morning's YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph shows the Tory lead up from 5% last month to 7%. This is in line with January's Populus poll which gave Cameron's Conservatives an 8% advantage and ICM which put the Tories 6% ahead. The poll will also provide some relief for Ming Campbell following end-of-year surveys that suggested that his party was beginning to tank.
YouGov's fieldwork was completed last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - before many of the latest Home Office failures were revealed. Nonetheless the survey found approval for Tony Blair at an all-time low. Just 21% of respondents approve of the government's record and only 26% are satisfied with Tony Blair's performance.
The Telegraph worries that the growth in smaller parties is preventing the Tories from rising above the critical 40% level: "In a year that Labour's support has dropped by nine points, the Conservatives' ratings have been static. With the Government in crisis, why have the voters not yet flocked to David Cameron, as they once did to Blair?" It's partial answer: "Even if the Government's torpor continues indefinitely, the public will still demand reasons to vote for the Tories as well as against Labour. Mr Cameron should start to reveal more of his private political passions to a public crying out for trustworthy, energetic, and above all different, political leadership."