YouGov: Tory lead up to 7%

This morning's YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph shows the Tory lead up from 5% last month to 7%.  This is in line with January's Populus poll which gave Cameron's Conservatives an 8% advantage and ICM which put the Tories 6% ahead.  The poll will also provide some relief for Ming Campbell following end-of-year surveys that suggested that his party was beginning to tank.

YouGov's fieldwork was completed last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - before many of the latest Home Office failures were revealed.  Nonetheless the survey found approval for Tony Blair at an all-time low.  Just 21% of respondents approve of the government's record and only 26% are satisfied with Tony Blair's performance.

The Telegraph worries that the growth in smaller parties is preventing the Tories from rising above the critical 40% level: "In a year that Labour's support has dropped by nine points, the Conservatives' ratings have been static. With the Government in crisis, why have the voters not yet flocked to David Cameron, as they once did to Blair?"  It's partial answer: "Even if the Government's torpor continues indefinitely, the public will still demand reasons to vote for the Tories as well as against Labour. Mr Cameron should start to reveal more of his private political passions to a public crying out for trustworthy, energetic, and above all different, political leadership."

Comments

[Tory T]

As Mike Smithson tells the Telegraph, "Grow up".

This poll is our best YouGov figure since the election. Contrary to the analysis quoted above, the YouGov figure for "others", as David Herdson points out on political betting, has been slashed by 3 points from 16% to 13%.

[Robert McIlveen]

The "critical 40% level" is itself based on an absence of small parties (or indeed much of a third one) so don't get too het up about it. It is likely that the "others" will lose votes when an election come, especially if it's a close one.

Good poll!

[Annabel Herriott]

Right Robert. Where is "Veritas" now??

[Ron]

If Cameron is more interested in coalitions with the LibDems than with all the disaffected Tories in UKIP, then the game is truly up.

[HF]

Tory T, very true. "Others" (BNP,UKIP,Green etc) have slumped by 3 percentage points which is in reality a loss of almost 1 in 5 of their votes.

An indication that headlines about a few grumpy old men are not indicative of what is happening on the ground.

The real movement is between Lib Dems and "Others". More a case of the protest vote floating between the 2 groups?

[Dave Bartlett]

"Mr Cameron should start to reveal more of his private political passions to a public crying out for trustworthy, energetic, and above all different, political leadership"

I understand Mr Cameron is giving a speech on islamic extremism today, it'll be ineresting to hear his suggestions.

[Soupy Twist]

The grudging attitude of the Telegraph does nothing to enhance its credibility.

What I'd really like to see is a regional breakdown -- if, as I suspect, we've stalled in the North and are motoring in the South, then pandering to UKIP will do very little to address the real weaknesses in our support.

C'mon CH, focus on the real issues!

[Ian Lewis]

While these polls grab the headlines, they are not actually that useful. The regional polls (I think I saw one here on Yorks. recently) are more relevant. Any sign of more regional polls being conducted?

[malcolm]

One has to question the sanity of no less than 21% of our fellow countrymen who still believe that Blairs' administration still has 'a good record'.

[CDM]

The Telegraph is becoming tiresome. I thought they recently appointed a Cameroon as the new Editor? Or does Heffer now pull the strings?

[Editor]

Quite CDM. I think they have been a little unfair today. I thought I had detected a more sympathetic treatment of the Cameron project from the news editors and leader-writers but it was not evident today.

[Michael McGowan]

The comment in the Telegraph is by Tony King, a respected commentator who has provided such analysis for years. The idea that he is a Simon Heffer clone is the sort of ridiculous raving one has come to expect of those who cannot come to terms with the continuing disintegration of the ramshackle coalition called the Tory Party.

[Zorro]

The real news recently has been the fact that Cameron isn't winning them over in the north. They can pile up his votes like Saddam Hussein in Pinko London for all I care. Much good will it do him.

Anthony King is sooooh rght:

Evidence still fails to suggest that HMS Tory is steaming to victory.

On the contrary, the battle remains more evenly joined than ever before, according to YouGov's latest monthly survey for The Daily Telegraph.

The Conservatives cannot sail past the crucial 40 per cent mark, and voters abandoning the good ship Labour are turning in as great numbers towards a variety of other parties as towards the Tories.

YouGov's latest survey puts the Conservatives on 38 per cent, the same as a year ago.

44 per cent of voters say if they had to choose, they would opt for a Cameron-led Conservative government compared with only 38 per cent who would go for a Brown-led Labour government.

However, the Tories' lead among respondents answering that question is only six points now, compared with 12 points before Christmas.

The Tories are on a hiding to nothing. An increasing number of former Tories - me included - are going to make sure Cameron never hi-jacks the leadership of this country the way he hi-jacked the party.

[Zorro]

A friend of mine was taught by King at I think Essex University.

He was well known to be Shirley Williams's boyfriend and so he's a Lib Dem - you know the kind Cameron thinks he's going to attract.

Interesting that King doenst think much of Cameron.

[CDM]

Sustained poll leads aren't normally "a hiding to nothing". What would Zorro suggest to improve our poll rating?

[Zorro]

What would Zorro suggest to improve our poll rating?

Sack Dave

[TomTom]

The biggest single political grouping in Britain is the Abstention Party and it sells no peerages, pays for no billboards, and has no interviews.

It will still be the biggest party at the nexte election

[G U (GivenUp)]

Green Dave still can't get a real lead, despite a government that is makeing Harold Wilson's total shambles look, a picture of probity and competence.

Only the utterly deluded, can take pleasure from such a pittiable lead, against such non competition.

[malcolm]

'Green Dave still can't get a real lead', 'The Tories are on a hiding to nothing'. These are our best poll figures for almost 15 years and at the same time the numbers for the minor parties appear to be in decline. I would humbly suggest the people calling themselves 'Zorro' and 'Given Up' are about as deluded as it is possible to be.

[Jonathan]

To win the next election the Conservatives have to show the electorate that they will be better than Labour. Labour is now as hated as we were in 1995 but they have the sense to change their leader.
They need different policies that are easy to understand and look different. Incremental change, new targets, saving waste, reducing bureaucrats are all disbelieved. Copying Labour at this time of its greatest unpopularity is simply stupid. Its an argument that would have been valid in 2001 possibly in 2005 but it is holding back our vote in 2007.
38% for the Conservatives with the political situation today is a badge of shame, not of rejoicing.

[TomTom]

Green Dave still can't get a real lead, despite a government that is makeing Harold Wilson's total shambles look

Oh and what year was that then ?

[Alex Swanson]

"These are our best poll figures for almost 15 years"

That's nothing to boast about.

This is the worst government we've EVER had. Any decently-led Conservative Party should be around at least 45%.

[John Irvine]

Absolutely agree Alex.

The problem is that there now is hardly any difference between the views of Cameron and those of Blair.

No wonder the party inspires so little confidence.

[HF]

Alas some familiar names have woken up from ukiphome.

Truth is that the protest votes have left Ukip,BNP, Greens in this poll and gone back to the Lib Dems. But I thought it was all about Europe that brought them to ukip?

On these figures Tories will gain 106 seats, be the biggest party, but be just 9 short of an overall majority.

[Matt Davis]

Professor Anthony King is one of Britain's foremost academics and an acknowledged expert on elections. To try to rubbish him, as some on here are now doing, just doesn't wash; he isn't a Heffer clone, he has no personal political axe to grind and he has every reason to wish to preserve his reputation for objective analysis. So what he has to say today is largely a question of fact not of spin, unlike the small but vocal pro Cameroon lobby on Conhome who continue to ignore reality in the very Blairite hope that spin can be substituted for substance. Professor King is making some serious and stark points for all you New Labour with a Blue Rosette supporters and that point is very clear.For every move further to the left that Cameron makes we lose conservative voters and do not necessarily replace them with ex LibDems or Labourites who, after all, now have a choice of all three major parties offering them much the same agenda.At a time when support for Labour is evaporating we should be seeing regular and considerable gains in our support as a result. That just isn't happening and there is now a genuine danger that the wheels are starting to fall off the Cameron project and that electoral success is coming no closer.This is deeply depressing.

[Peter Coe]

Matt, you're absolutely right. EVERYONE has an intrinsic personal bias - especially anyone as interested in politics as Professor King is.

The question is whether they are objective - and given that in the 1980s, much to Labour's annoyance, he was making precisely the same point about their anaemic poll ratings, most of us accept that he is.

What these silly little snipers are saying is that they'll only regard a commentary on a poll as impartial if it's written by a card-carrying loyalist Tory!

On the issue of minor parties, again, those who are expecting a slippage of their support to the Tories come the time people actually have to choose a government need to think again: the bulk of the surge for minor parties has come from disillusioned lefties, not disillusioned Conservatives.

In last year's London elections, the Tories did well not because their vote rose (it went up just 0.1% over 2002, though there were individual examples of Tory advance) but because Labour's vote collapsed to minor parties - the Greens in inner London and the BNP in the suburbs.

Now I agree with anyone who says that minor party support WILL slide when people come to cast their votes; I just think it will benefit Labour more.

[Adam]

Ha! More delusional blatherings from CH contributors. That Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard couldn't move beyond 33% appears to be totally forgotten. No, we should be on 45% - with no actual evidence as to why.

Then throw in how we need to be radically different with detailed policies in order to win against a government on the rocks. This conveniently forgets that Thatcher swept to power in 1979 with one of the most policy-lite manifestoes in history and wanting to heal the nation bringing in together St Francis of Assissi-like, and Blair swept to power in 1997 promising to stick to Conservative spending plans for 2 years and not raise income tax.

[Sean Fear]

Actually, I think the minor parties' vote will stick with them next time, Peter. As more minor party councillors get elected, so it boosts the credibility of the party concerned, and weakens the argument that voting for them is a wasted vote.

In a seat like Barking, for example, one could hardly make the "wasted vote" argument against the BNP.

[Michael McGowan]

Adam, so you recommend that we all vote Tory on the basis of a policy-lite manifesto aiming to capture centre-left votes and trust Dave because he is so obviously authentic, just like Blair? Can't you just accept that a lot of people with centre-right leanings no longer believe that there is much difference between the Tories and Labour/the Lib Dems and that they are all self-serving cabals largely run by chancers who simply want to get their snouts in the trough? Power is not the Tories' divine right especially as they have been such a useless opposition. Shrill denunications of undecided voters are not going to stop them voting for minority parties or more probably just not voting at all.

[clive elliot]

I'm inclined to think we need a lead in the region of 15%, say 45% to 30%, at this stage, in order for it to be large enough to be sustained right through the Labour uplift that is bound to occur as we near the election. Governments nearly always improve their ratings close to the actual election. Also in recent years the Libdems have generally polled better in the election than they were doing a few years before.

A bigger Cons lead would also help in causing Labour to panic and thus split.

So I really agree with some above who say that, given the pitiful recent record of the Govt, we are not as far ahead as we ought to be.

The trick for DC, and it's difficult, is to pick up support from the soft centre while doing a bit as well to enthuse more traditional Conservatives. Maybe it's too soon to start spouting detailed policy yet, but I think we could do more talk about principles and approaches, especially dwelling on policy areas where we are at odds with the Government rather than going on endlessly about topics where all parties basically agree.

And we need a bit of clear blue water on policy, otherwise the election just becomes a television beauty contest, and no-one can know who'd win that!

[jorgen]

So, trying to get all the socialist voters by adopting socialist policies and having a Blair-look-like leader is still not giving more than 38% of the votes. It is time to change to Conservative policies and get all those who have left the Conservative Party back.

[Soupy Twist]

Oh dear the UKIP trolls have really lost it.

It seems that Dave is a disaster because he isn't 20% ahead in the polls.

Have they ever considered the fact that this is the first time we've faced a Labour Government that isn't embroiled in outright economic crisis?

Brown is undermining this country's competitiveness but this is a slow process and we still enjoy a record run of quarters without a recession.

Against this background Cameron is doing remarkably well.

In any case, the real question for the trolls is this -- if Cameron really is such a pinko traitor to all thing sound then why isn't UKIP doing better in the polls?

[malcolm]

Exactly what socialist policies Jorgen?

[UKIPinvasion]

Oh dear. Coming to the end of a disaterous Blair regime, disasterous home office stories by the day, a tired 3rd term Labour party.

And the Tories still can't 40% of the votes!

As soon as Labour get their new leader and with it all the publicity, that 38 will sink like a stone.

The only question is will Cameron be ditched before or after the election? The longer he is there, the less likely the Tories will ever make a come back.

Scotland hates you. Wales despises you. The North have contempt for you. Camerons project Blue Labour has failed and failed miserably. Fix it or die.

[Hug a Druggie]

Dave is doing a marvellous job. He deserves the full support of all of us.

[malcolm]

Brilliant post UKIP Invasion. You're absolutely right of course , if only we had a decent leader not everyone would hate us and we be at least 90% ahead in the polls. Have you ever thought about trying to get a job as a Campaign strategist? We really need people like you to tell us where we've gone wrong.

[CDM]

Sometimes, the analytical insight of UKIPers leaves me speechless. We elect Cameron as leader, and begin to acquire stable poll leads, the likes of which haven't been seen for 15 years.

How do we get them even higher? Sack Cameron. It's pure genius.

[jorgen]

malcolm, assuming that will argue that there are no policies yet, you would be right. However, Cameron has given plenty of indications of what his policies will be, both directly and indirectly.

[TimberWolf]

Don't take any notice of anything Malcolm says. He is a Conservative who is only here to cause trouble.

[malcolm]

So which socialist policies or indications of policies' are you refferring to Jorgen?

[malcolm]

You're absoltely right Timberwolf. Sorry! Perhaps I should spend my day trolling on UKIPhome?
It's a good thought though. Dear UKIPers,you should get rid of Farage. If only you'd made Kilroy-Silk your leader you would be 50% in the polls not 3% or whatever absurd figure it is.Do you think they'd fall for it?

[Graham]

I have stated this else where but will repeat myself. David Cameron should be commanding polls of 50% let alone 40%. The Labour party have done everything possible to shoot themselves in the foot, ankle, knees, groin. Apart from going on a killing spree they couldn't do much worse, yet the conservatives only just have the lead.

Why? because the lilly livered approach of David Cameron he has no leading qualities, he has no policies he is just struggling to keep together a few select hard core conservatives, truth is there is majority, not minority of people. Who don't want to be part of a federalist Europe and if we must be part of it, for it to be fought over and not given away with a wimper. Also a society in which Britishness doesnt have to be taught but is part of society from top to bottom. Not a place where muslim law will supercede British law, and where we will become a minority in our own country. This is why the nationalist parties will do so well this and the fourth coming years. As the main political parties sit in thier surburban Ivory towers.

[Lucy]

How do I get a Uki phone? Are they better than ordinary phones?

[Scotty]

I know that the Conservatives are doing well in the polls by simple looking at the increased number of UKIP trolls, who continue to try and park their wreck of a party on this site.
Just visit some of the UKIP sites and observe the lack of poster's! But best of all just read some of the comments about how important they are to the political scence, concern if anyone goes off the broken record or their suspicions that their sites might be infiltrated with trolls. Hilarious.
I think that we have to accept that they get lonely and come here in the hope that someone will listen to them.

[jorgen]

malcolm, I think I have found two things I agree at least partly with Cameron about. But since you ask (apologies, editor, if you think this is off topic but I think it is relevant to explain the 38%): Cameron does not go actively for a low tax economy, a small state, strong control of our borders limiting immigration, that poverty does not mean "relative poverty" etc. etc.

You should read some of Heffer's articles and you will know. All the articles, I have read are clearly expressing Tory policies, when they are best.

[malcolm]

So which socialist policies etc etc Jorgen? You 'll have to to do much better than reciting old articles from Heffer.

[MH]

I would be quite interested in a sense of what % of the electorate is going to even bother voting. If it is 60% plus, I'll be stunned. Frankly, the present Government is proving a massive turn off after the false dawn of 1997 and the Conservatives are really still nowhere. Ho hum.

[Zorro]

Well I'm a UKIP supporter and if there are any others posting here I'm sure they will be proud to say so.

No Malcolm old bean. Your problem is that these boards are full of angry disaffected Tories, and you just can't hack it.

Neither you nor Boy Wonder will know where what's left of your party stands until Brown takes over, and I think you may be in for a surprise.

He'll be a new face and you all know how having the new but not very pretty face of Boy Wonder gave you a boost.

[Hug a Druggie]

That is not very nice Zorro. Cameron is doing a wonderful job and we are all very proud of him overcoming his disdavantaged start in life.

[Gunther]

It's not a Uki phone Lucy. They were talking about a website called Ukiphome, where all the extreme right wing politicians who are not in BNP live.