Today's YouGov/ Telegraph poll for the Tories gives a 5% lead (down 2% on last month) - exactly the same as ICM's recent poll for The Guardian and much better than Tuesday's Communicate Research poll for The Independent. Anthony King's analysis of the poll seems spot on:
"A year into David Cameron's leadership of the Conservative Party one thing is clear: he certainly doesn't frighten the horses. As the Tories have succeeded in frightening the horses for the better part of a generation, that might be thought to be an advantage. However, YouGov's latest monthly survey for The Daily Telegraph still finds little evidence of positive enthusiasm for either David Cameron or the party under him. Although the Conservatives still lead Labour, they are only narrowly ahead and a large proportion of voters' verdict on Mr Cameron remains "Don't know"."
The most interesting YouGov findings can be found below the headline numbers. The voters are evenly split (38% both ways) on whether Cameron is right to be cautious about early declarations of policy or whether he is paying too much attention to public opinion and should be setting out more detailed policies now. By 48% to 34% 'all voters' believe that the Tory focus on green issues is a mistake and that the focus should be on taxation, crime and immigration. The proportion is bigger (55% to 35%) amongst Tory voters. Perhaps, next time, YouGov will test the 'And Theory' for us!