The year ends with ConservativeHome's crude average of the most recent Communicate Research, ICM, Populus and YouGov surveys giving the Tories a modest 2.75% lead. This poll of polls number incorporates today's YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph. YouGov gives the Tories a 4% lead (compared to 5% last month). If you believe the value of Brown versus Cameron surveys (and ConservativeHome is sceptical), of those surveyed by YouGov: "45 per cent opt for the Conservatives under their actual leader, only 32 per cent for Labour under their putative leader."
Perhaps the most interesting component of the YouGov survey is the widespread unhappiness with all of the parties. Anthony King:
"To an almost unprecedented extent, voters are evincing their dissatisfaction not merely with Labour and the Tories but with all three major parties. According to YouGov, one respondent in four, 27 per cent, would either abstain at an early election (11 per cent) or at the moment lacks any voting preference (16 per cent). Of those who do declare a voting intention, one in eight, 13 per cent, say they would back some party other than one of the big three. Putting the same point another way, only 64 per cent of voters currently say they are disposed to vote for any of the three main parties. Fully 36 per cent — a huge proportion by post-war standards — seem disposed to turn their backs on the whole lot. Never before has the None-of-the-Above Party recruited so many adherents."