Luntz's thirty floaters prefer Reid to Brown... but is Luntz's approach flawed?

It was nearly a year ago that David Cameron's Tory leadership bid was resurrected.  'That speech', an impressive campaign launch and a faltering David Davis all boosted Mr Cameron's fortunes but there was also an important fourth factor - 'the Luntz effect'.

A focus group by US consultant Frank Luntz found a very positive reaction to Mr Cameron from floating voters and it helped power the Cameron surge.

Mr Luntz has now carried out another focus group (for Newsnight) and has this time compared the possible contenders for the Labour leadership.  His conclusions appear in an article for The Times and they're bad news for Gordon Brown.  People found the Chancellor dour, responsible for 'the coup' against Blair and Scottish.  Luntz was surprised at the Scottish thing:

"Almost half the group opposed being led by a Scotsman. I pushed them hard — and they pushed back. “It’s not racist. I want someone who is English running England."

That didn't stop the focus group favouring John Reid overall:

"Only a fraction of our participants could name Mr Reid just from his photograph. But two words immediately came to mind as their familiarity grew: “strong” and “tough”. In the on-air battle between Mr Reid and Jeremy Paxman, half thought Paxman won, but the other half saw in Reid’s refusal to back down a demonstration of backbone and the determination they want in their next leader.  The single most well received language of the evening was Mr Reid’s declaration that “a court judgment that put the human rights of foreign prisoners ahead of the right to safety of UK citizens is wrong. Full stop. No qualifications”. His anti-criminal, pro-victim rhetoric communicated an essential personal attribute that the rest of the Labour leadership is missing — genuine listening. “He’s listening to the people on the streets.”  Mr Reid has two characteristics the voters did not like in Gordon Brown: age and a Scottish ancestry. But they didn’t seem to mind. To them, he is “action, not talk”."

Mr Reid's toughness will certainly be a contrast to Mr Cameron's smoothness and would potentially be a powerful asset if the international security situation deteriorates.

Alan Johnson comes off well but less well than Mr Reid.  There is newspaper speculation this morning about a Johnson-Reid ticket.  Remember where you heard that before?

There we are then or are we?  I have one big question about Luntz's approach.  The thirty members of his focus group all appear to be conventional floating voters... "One third," he reports, "were loyal Labourites. One third were Labour-leaners. And one third were floating voters who cast ballots for the Tories or the Liberal Democrats but would consider switching to Labour if it choose the right leader."  I'd like to know if all of these floaters are pretty determined to vote.  As Stephan Shakespeare has written on this site, David Cameron, the man crowned by Luntz's focus group last year, is perfectly pitched for those floating between the main parties but is not reaching those who are floating between voting and not voting (the floating non-voters) who see all the parties as the same.

Anyhow: My £10 bet on John Reid being the next Labour leader looks a little more promising this morning.

Comments

[Monday Clubber]

I have no doubt whatsoever that Gordon Brown will be the next Prime Minister.

I have just under £300 worth of matched bets in his favour on Betfair and I think I may take more.

Last night's Panorama showed Mr Brown as a substantial, thoughtful, figure in comparison with the lightweight Cameron, replete with permagrin.

As long as Gordon Brown is true to himself I believe that once he is PM the public will accept him at face value and respect his personality. This is not a beauty contest, after all.

Unless we can promise tax cuts there seems to be no overarching reason why the public should want to replace New Labour with Blue Labour.

The euphoric hubris of the Cameroon clique on this blog has to be seen to be appreciated. I fear that nemesis awaits as surely as night follows day.

[Mark Wadsworth]

I am disappointed.

I thought that Luntz's audience would go for Johnson or Milburn (as he even on Luntz's list?), one deceitful conceited bullying Scot is the same as another as far as I am concerned.

And surely Reid must realise that the UK, as far as I am aware, prefers to elect Prime Ministers who are a) English and b) Not bald.

Looking on the bright side, maybe "Tories for Gordon" are right, maybe this country's medium term interests are best served by having the worst PM in the short term.

[You get what you pay for]

Frank Luntz you say? Good to see Newsnight producers reaching for new and unpredictable contributors.

[malcolm]

Think this says more about Mr Luntzs' polling methods than anything else. I posted a while ago that choosing a Scottish leader would put Labour at a disadvantage in England and am not suprised that that is borne out in Luntzs poll. But to see that not applying to John Reid does seem to me beyond belief. John Reid is the ultimate Glasgow boot boy and I would be as happy to see him as Labour leader as Gordon Brown who after all does not seem to be a fully paid up member of the human race.

[Geoffrey G Brooking]

Put my tenner on Reid at 20/1 with Betfair last night!

[Ian Lewis, Wallasey, Wirral]

I'd be interested to know more about the floating non-voters - ie what floats their boat - issues (if so, which?), people (who?), messages (which?) and why are they non-voters? Anyone have any ideas?

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Brown will be the next PM - no questions about it. But he'll lead Labour to defeat - there will be a hung Parliament or Cameron Government. The knives will be out for Brown and this will present Reid et al with an opportunity of leading the Labour Party in opposition. Sadly, for him, John Reid will be in his mid-sixties by 2016. That's when Balls and Milliband (if he can find a seat) will be' ripe'. A Balls-Milliband ticket? I’m reminded of Blair and Brown :-)))))))))) It would be better to bet that Brown will be Labour’s shortest lived PM.

[tapestry]

What's a 'Whitehall farce'?

Gordon Brown believing Blair's assurances that he will inherit the Labour Crown.

Can we have a new joke now please?

12 years has been enough.

[Julian Williams]

If Brown lost what would they do with him? Could they put him safely on the back benches, he would be a loose cannon, maybe they would make him deputy leader or foreign secretary. As deputy he would be moody and undermine the PM, the EU would hate him as Foreign secretary (which would be good news for the UK's ejection from that corrupt undemocratic organisation) But would throw Labour into chaos

Labours problem is that Gordon is their biggest beast and he rubs everyone up the wrong way.

The Tory's problem is that Cameron is their big beast and having Minni Mouse as your leader is hardly impressive.

[Richard]

Just goes to show being "the nasty party" is no bad thing!

[Wat Tyler]

Our old chum Luntz surpassed himself last night. It wasn't just the questionable way he'd assembled the sheep...sorry, focus group (most couldn't recognise photos of most candidates- 2 couldn't even recognise Gordo himself). It was also his choice of material presented to them.

Reid was shown delivering a trad Tory law and order message, which obviously went down very well. Others were shown wittering about "stuff", and that Big Mac bloke was actually shown head bent reading out some boring Commons statement (and he still clocked 10% support)

Still, we shouldn't complain- whereas last year Newsnight used him to nuke DD, this year they're using him to nuke Gordo. And get Labour led by Reid! Brilliant stuff.

Carry on Frank.

[malcolm]

Absolutely right Wat. I wish Frank Luntz and Newsnight every success in their campaign to damage Brown as much as possible.

[The Orator]

What I loved were the cocky cockney Labour voters who felt they had to crack a joke everytime they spoke. Why can't we have more voters like that? Sod Waitrose Woman.