Pragmatism tempers Tory members' support for leaving the EU

There are two ways of reading the answers that Tory members gave to ConservativeHome's questions on the Better Off Out campaign:

• One reading says that 63% of members either support or have sympathy for BOO's campaign to take Britain out of the EU;
• Another reading would emphasise the fact that 66% do not support the campaign - 33% for tactical reasons and another 33% because they want to see Britain remaining in the EU.

Roger Helmer MEP was in no doubt about the meaning of the survey:

"I am impressed that two thirds of Conservatives either support the Better Off Out Campaign, or at least sympathise with it. The case for "Better Off Out" is extremely strong, and I am convinced that support will rise as the campaign progresses."

Philip Davies MP - who launched the campaign - was equally pleased:

"This survey shows that there is a considerable body of opinion within the Conservative Party and across the country for Britain to leave the EU.  The MPs who are supporting Better Off Out are representing that substantial body of opinion. People are increasingly realising that our future prosperity as a Nation depends on trading with countries around the world such as China, India, the US and other emerging markets rather than being tied to a backward looking, inward looking protection racket propping up inefficient continental businesses."

Related link: We must have the courage to break free of the EU, says Philip Hollobone MP.

Editor's note: ConservativeHome would be keen to publish a full argument for why Britain should remain in the EU.  Any offers to tim@conservativehome.com please.

Comments

[Chris]

Personally I'm of the opinion that an EU withdrawal would be a good idea BUT we should negotiate entrance into EFTA instead. We need to escape the political disaster that is the EU and simply go back to being a member of a Europe wide free trade organisation.

[Chad]

What is clear, is that at least 30% definitely support withdrawal.

That is huge and very encouraging!

[Chad]

..for UKIP! :-)

[Conservative-man]

If we do withdrawl (no bad thing) let's make sure we have an immediate plan as to how we cut away at the red tape. The only way a withdrawl would be a popular success is for it to be accompanined by a surge in economic growth. If we do not plan carelully, we will end up looking like the US Army, having quickly conqueored Iraq, but with little clue as to what to do next.

[malcolm]

The sad fact is that we are divided on our EU membership although I do think if the question had been phrased differently 'Do you think Britains membership of the EU is a good thing' far fewer than 30% of Conservatives would answer yes.I wonder if it's time for Cameron to do a Wilson and offer a referendum on our continued membership.

[Chad]

Maybe, but that would be a different question altogether Malcolm.

This important issue here is that we have here is at least 30% unequivocally supporting eu withdrawal.

That is major news.

[Henry Mayhew]

For the first time, EU debate is being tolerated at the highest levels within the Conservative Party. Congratulations Mr Cameron, a very important step towards resolving a problem.

As soon as this issue is resolved, the creative energies of the centre-right can focus on developing policies for the economy, health, education and crime.

With a united Right, Conservatives can look forward confidently to government and, more importantly, making a positive difference to this country. Congratulations Editor for calling for pro-Euro argument. Debate is what our system is built on, not television interviews or soundbites. By the way, does anyone else agree with me that Philip Davies is becoming one of our most important legislators?

[TimC]

While I was living in the States there was an article about Britain joining NAFTA. Has anyone seriously looked at this?

[Oberon Houston]

I think there is a large slab of wishful thinking going on by those that want to withdraw. The 'some sympathy' does not, in my view, add up to 33% support. The NOT withdraw is the key here.

To distract the whole Party on this issue at this time will do the Conservative cause no good. We need to gently park this until we are in power, and take a pragmatic view of the situation then, and even then it will need a referendum, which is unlikely to succeed, so to blow all our hot air on this issue just now is of no practical use and will only serve to reinforce the public perception that we are unstable and an unsuitable party to form a Government.

EU... **!!*

oh!, there we go, I think I've got a migraine coming on.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"The sad fact is that we are divided on our EU membership"

All the main parties (and the Liberal Democrats) are divided to some extent regarding EU membership.

I seem to recall that two senior MPs in the Labour Party entered parliament on the back of a commitment to withdraw from the European Union. Their names? Oh, Tony whatshisname and Gordon somethingorother...

[Henry Mayhew]

Distract the Party from what? It is going through a wholesale rebranding and questioning. Why should this extremely damaging issue be ring-fenced from discussion and resolution?

[Mark]

To count “sympathetic” as “support” is scraping the barrel. I have sympathy with all sorts of arguments that I don’t agree with – for example the arguments that took us to war in Iraq.

It would be absurd to infer from this result that Conservative policy should be withdrawal from Europe. This blog is definitely right-leaning but, even so, the smallest group was the one that wants to exit.

[Chad]

Oberon wrote:
"I think there is a large slab of wishful thinking going on by those that want to withdraw."

Hi Oberon,

30% of the respondents definitely, definitely support EU withdrawal.

Ignoring the middle response which can be read either way completely that is very significant and clear all by itself.

[Jon Gale]

"We need to gently park this until we are in power, and take a pragmatic view of the situation then"

Surely it would be far better to have this debate now and resolve it years from an election, instead of getting into power and then collapsing into infighting and recreating the Major years.

[David Banks]

i normally feel that the problem with leaving the EU is that there is nowhere else to go and that we have a lot of jobs links with the continent.
However i've been thinking....
How about enlarging EFTA to create another different form of cross - europe free trade and cooperation model, involving Scando Eurosceptic countries like Norway, present EU member Ireland and little rich states like switzerland?

We could also try to revive NATO as a free trade / capitalist / mutual security entity?

How about increasing trade with the Commonwealth rather than EU states?

Any thoughts?

[David Banks]

.............Oh hang on, Norway is already part of EFTA, anyway rest of suggestion still holds.

[Chris]

"The sad fact is that we are divided on our EU membership"

All the main parties (and the Liberal Democrats) are divided to some extent regarding EU membership.

I actually had a question about how europe has proven divisive in political parties on an exam paper a couple of weeks ago. I think that was the only time I felt glad that the party had been so divided over Europe as I had tons of material.

"We need to gently park this until we are in power, and take a pragmatic view of the situation then"
Personally I'd prefer to see this decided before we were in power. Then we would have a clear mandate to support EU withdrawal in a referendum if that was the stance the party decided to take.

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

I must confess I thought the questions were skewed (deliberately or not, I don't know) to get this sort of answer. There was no middle ground answer - "I agree", "I agree, but it's bad politics" and "I don't agree".

You can't lump the Eurosceptic mainstream of the Party with the Europhiles, and that is what these questions did.

[Chris]

David, through becoming a member of EFTA we could then reapply to join the EEA meaning the free trade agreements we currently have with EU countris would remain. Forming a new free trade bloc would be incredibly difficult, I mean we're having enough trouble forming a new grouping in the EU parliament!

[Chad]

"Surely it would be far better to have this debate now "
With debate being the key word, calm, rational, debate, not a slanging match.

* What would make you agree to stay in the EU/what would make you decide to leave?

I think the answer to this question will really show whether people's views are entrenched or open to discussion.

I don't understand the need for hot heads. We are all pro-European*, we are simply debating whether the EU is the right organisation to forward our interests, europe's interests and the interests of the world as a whole.

Let not start from 'in' or 'out' or 'europhobe' or 'europhile' but debate the issues.

*bar a tiny minority of course.

[Henry Mayhew]

What is needed is more pro-EU statements. There isn't a debate because the pro-EU argument is not being made. Well done Editor for calling for articles.

My impression is that it is just international businessmen that are in favour of the EU and its associated and all-powerful courts of justice.

As soon as this central debate is won I will be delighted to deal with the Cameroonian Hug a Hoodie agenda and donate to Party funds. A sound Conservative Party is critical to the future of this country.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Hold on, Roger and Philip! I - and I think the vast majority - of people who supported the 'middle' option did so because we *DO NOT* support the BOO campaign. I am sympathetic to a lot of causes but that does not mean I support them (am I making sense?). If there hadn't been the middle option, I suspect that option three would have been the most popular. Withdrawing from Europe is a defeatist plan; our MEPs should be there to stand up for Britain's interests and promote a Europe of nations where we do not only regard it as a Free Trade zone, but also see it as a force for good in, for example, tackling terrorism and climate change and countering the Americans.

[Ian Williamson]

Didn't Mexico recently secure a trading arrangement with Europe that effectively gave them all the trading advantages without the bureaucratic and political disadvantages?

[Ian Williamson]

oops -- that last message should have read "Didn't Mexico recently secure a trading arrangement with Europe that effectively gave them all the trading advantages of EU membership without the bureaucratic and political disadvantages?"

[Roger Helmer MEP]

Jon Gale says "the problem with leaving the EU is that there's nowhere else to go". Why do we have to go anywhere? We are a great global trading nation, and there is a whole world out there. Outside the EU, we should be free to strike free trade deals with our major trading partners, without the deadweight of EU regulation and protectionism. And we should continue to be permanent members of the UN Security Council, and key players in the WTO, the G7, the OECD, the World Bank, the Commonwealth, NATO.... need I go on?

[william]

30% support BOO. 33% would support BOO if it did not threaten a media firestorm. Pragmatic or defeatist?

Cameron supports withdrawal from the EPP. He fears reprisals in the media, and is going slow on his promise. Prgamatic or defeatist?

We should not talk about the EU, but we should act to either get out of the EPP and work to reshape the EU. Or get out of it.

[David Banks]

Chris
i take your point about it being very difficult.
I think we should stay in the EU just because everything else is cloud cuckoo land /UKIP territory.I just like to dream occaisionally, i have yet to 'come out' as an EFTA fan ( an Eftan?) but i have sneaking inclinations that way.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Conservatives - whio have always supported a being in Europe, not run by Europe policy - polled around 33% at the last GE. UKIP, on the other hand, got about 3%. It is THEY who are in a minority, out US.

[Richard]

"David, through becoming a member of EFTA we could then reapply to join the EEA meaning the free trade agreements we currently have with EU countris would remain. Forming a new free trade bloc would be incredibly difficult, I mean we're having enough trouble forming a new grouping in the EU parliament!"

Unfortunately I think EEA membership includes having to accept certain EU regulations.

"we do not only regard it as a Free Trade zone, but also see it as a force for good in, for example, tackling terrorism and climate change and countering the Americans"

Counter the Americans in what sense? I'd prefer us to be nearer to America than the EU. They're more anti-socialist for a start plus they share our common law legal system and traditions of liberty. America was created primarily by the British. We shouldn't allow Bush's clowning around to distract us from that.

[arthur]

Those of us who were around in 1975, know just how pointless these polls are.
Six months before the referendum, polls showed: out 65% in 35%. On the day 67% in 33% out.

If when the time came, a similar referendum were held, bet the result would be identical.

Its the WW1 analogy. Old Bill saying to the young soldier who is moaning about the state of the trench, 'If you knows of a better hole, go to it!'

When the time comes the bulk of the people, won't take the risk.

'better the devil you know, than the one you don't' sad but true.

[Jack W]

Well this is one former Conservative, whose vote is up for grabs who will certainly NOT vote Conservative at the next General Election if withdrawl or an even more hard line Eurosceptic line becomes party policy.

[Richard]

Advantages of the EU:
1. Free trade with other EU nations
2. Convenient border crossing when going on holiday

Disadvantages:
1. CAP
2. Common external tariff (we should aim to get rid of all our trade barriers)
3. "Social" legislation (eg social chapter)
4. Non-social business regulations (eg metrification)
5. Laws made by elected or unelected representatives of other countries

I'm sure I've missed out some under both categories. The question is, how do we get rid of the disadvantages? Will the Continentals be happy about us giving ourselves an advantage by excluding ourselves from business regulations? The problem is that there's a socialistic mindset at the heart of the EU that believes all members should be compelled to have their economies regulated to create a "level playing field" so that European welfare states aren't threatened.

[Lindsay Jenkins]

Isnt it about time we talked about what is good for the United Kingdom. Plenty of people have commented on what is good politics or good for the Conservative Party.

The meansure should be what is good for the British people.

Let us not forget that roughly 80 per cent of all legislation going through the Commons is rubber stamping Brussels. That nearly half our statute book dating back a thousand years is now filled with Brussels speak and that in 30 years. And that about two thirds of all our government is either controlled or largely controlled from Brussels.

Why on earth would two thirds of Conservative repsondents want to stay in an EU they cannot substantively change?

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

It's important that American isn't the world's only policeman. Besides, America doesn't want us and the Americans, esp. the Republicans, want to see a strong Europe working in partnership with them (read John McCain's speeches).

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Worth visiting...

http://www.cge.org.uk

[Denis Cooper]

Norway is in the European Economic Area, with access to the EU single market, but it avoids most of the costly EU rules we have to accept. Some stats from the Norwegian Foreign Ministry: in the period 1997-2003 Brussels produced 11,511 different pieces of legislation, of which Norway adopted only 2,129 - 18.5 percent.

As Daniel Hannan put it last October:

"Norwegians must meet EU standards when they sell to the EU - as exporters the world over must do. But they are spared the expense of having to apply most of these regulations to their domestic commerce. You will sometimes hear that Norway has to assimilate thousands of EU laws, but these laws are generally of a technical and trivial nature. The 3,000 EU legal acts adopted in Norway since 1992 have required only 50 statutes in the Storting. And the people who make such a fuss of these 3,000 regulations neglect to mention the 24,000 that Britain has had to incorporate over the same period."

[malcolm]

'It is important that America isn't the worlds only policeman'.You are not seriously suggesting that the EU can perform this task are you Justin?
The performance of the EU in the Balkan conflict in the 1990's (including Britain) was seriously pathetic and even now some of our European NATO allies in Afghanistan are sending miniscule numbers of troops if any.President Chiracs idea of an EU is a total pipe dream.
Like it or not (and I don't like Bush generally) the Americans are playing the only game in town.

[TomTom]

Didn't Mexico recently secure a trading arrangement with Europe that effectively gave them all the trading advantages without the bureaucratic and political disadvantages?

China has that already

[Chad]

"'It is important that America isn't the worlds only policeman'"

This unhelpful view is particularly common amongst the super europhile LibDems who wants a USE to counter and even challenge the USA.

It simply exposes a regionalist xenophobia and is actively carving up the world into power bases when we should be showing a committment to international solutions.

The way to provide balance is to seek to operate on an international basis, not carve up the world into regional power bases.

[Serf]

The questions were too vague to gain any real meaning from them. There is a whole range of beliefs from Federalist to Independence and many in between.

Even within the last group it is easy to imagine Eurosceptics who still believe that a different type of EU is possible.

Happy to see that 30% of members are supporters of independence though.

[malcolm]

My previous post should read President Chiracs idea of an EU defence force is a pipe dream.
I seriously doubt whether John McCain is advocating that the EU act as a counterweight to the USA.Rather he wants EU troops involved in Americas wars.That's a pipe dream too.

[Sean Fear]

Justin, Europe has no desire to be the world's other policeman (which would require them to divert money from welfare payments to their armed forces).

[Chad]

I agree Serf, the only crystal clear view that can be extracted is that 30% definitely support withdrawal.

That is huge, imho.

[comstock]

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[malcolm]

Have you been drinking or doing drugs Comstock

[comstock]

"Have you been drinking or doing drugs Comstock"

No, although I am tempted :D

[Ian Williamson]

I'm glad Serf mentioned the word "independence". Isn't that what the debate is all about -- independence for Britain?

[michael mcgough]

Why worry that this campaign might be used to portray the Conservative Party as divided on the EU? It is!
How many times have we heard the terminal cancer patient say that they wished they had sought treatment earlier?A clever pragmatist might consider the harm that WILL be done to the party by ignoring the subject.Think B&C,then think marginal,then think UKIP.

[Jon Gale]

Roger Helmer MEP

Jon Gale says "the problem with leaving the EU is that there's nowhere else to go".

No, you've got me confused with David Banks.

I would like to leave the EU as quickly as possible!

[Idris Francis]

I could give you a great deal of information on why we would be Better Off Out in economic terms, by £50bn to £100bn pa - but that it to miss the point.

The real issue is FREEDOM. Nothing else matters - freedom from the growing tyranny of the EU, freedom from the oppression and lack of demoracy designed into the EU from its very beginnings.

As Jefferson (I think) once wrote - "Any nation that gives away its freedom in pursuit of economic advantage deserves to lose both."

Or to put it more bluntly - It takes a fool to sell his freedom for perceived economic advantage - but it takes a raving lunatic to pay to have it taken away!

Idris Francis.