The Tories' northern challenge

Today's Telegraph (which sees the very welcome return of Janet Daley to its editorial pages) has a frontpage story on the ways in which the Conservative Party is "piling up votes in London and the Home Counties while failing to make any significant inroads north of the Trent".

The same YouGov survey that gave the Tories a 6% nationwide lead (see last week's report here) finds that the party has a 47% to 22% lead in London (that should encourage some mayoral candidates to step forward!) but a 30% to 40% deficit in 'the North' (that is the North East, North West and Yorkshire and Humberside).

Philip Johnston, analysing the survey for the Telegraph, notes that its results are in line with May 4th's local election results:

"Although the Conservatives did well in this month's elections in England, half of all the seats they gained were in London, whereas in the rest of England they averaged scarcely one seat gain per council."

Although the Conservatives do not need to win a majority of seats in the English north it does need to improve on its current 10% share of the regions' seats.  Without winning more seats in the north - and in Wales and Scotland - a Conservative government will lack legitimacy in the eyes of many UK citizens.  Furthermore, without a northern breakthrough, a parliamentary majority will be difficult to achieve.  With LibDems holding seats from Torquay and Taunton in the west to Romsey and Richmond Park in the south, the Tories can no longer rely on as many southern constituencies (hence the growing talk of a Libservative pact).

What can be done about achieving that northern breakthrough?

• One of the most important things might be selecting more genuinely local candidates for northern seats.  The quotas underpinning the Conservative Party's A-list focus on gender and ethnicity.  The party may have been better advised to have sought and trained high quality people from the northern cities and counties so that the party began to have more of a northern feel.  Andrew Woodman's proposal for a candidates academy and Robert Halfon's suggestion of candidate bursaries both deserve serious consideration.
• A big barrier to cross will be that of the 'supplicant state'.  As The Telegraph points out: "Public spending in parts of the North accounts for almost 60 per cent of the economy - a level of intervention as high as in some old communist states - compared to just 30 per cent in the South.  Labour's vote is managing to hold up in areas where the economy depends on high public spending, whereas the Tories are doing better in areas that pay more in taxes but feel they get less back from central government."  The Tories will never be able to outbid Labour in terms of public spending and a Conservative strategy to supercharge economic growth may be the best way of avoiding a zero-sum game in north-south relations.  John Redwood's Competitiveness Policy Group has a crucial role to play here.
• There are other concerns of northern battlers that should preoccupy Conservative strategists.  David Cameron's greener and gentler Conservatism has made the party more socially acceptable to the values voters of the English south but tough policies on crime, higher school standards and patriotic policies may do more to rebuild Tory support amongst the northern striving classes.
• Better campaigning may also help.  Conservatives need to be brave in taking resources away from 'safe seats' and pouring them into target seats.  Labour votes are currently much more 'efficient' - it takes just under 27,000 super-sized voters to elect a Labour MP but over 44,000 voters to elect a Tory MP.  Boundary commission changes and the effect that David Cameron is having on reducing anti-Tory tactical voting will reduce that 'vote inefficiency' but an overhaul of campaigning tactics will also be essential.

Comments

[William]

What a tragedy the positive discrimination selecting MP's to the A List has been used to push forward Ab Fab women and ethnic candidates. The BNP have jumped on this immediately to colour us in as it were.

What we should have done if we were going to do positive discrimination should have been in favour of solid working calss regional accents - the likes of Prescott but without the hand up the skirt.

Or alternatively thrown open the selection procedure to Primaries, and allowed the sea of humanity access to our ranks. That would put right any previous bias we may have suffered from.

As usual any attempt to control the flow of humanity according to a selection process is less effective than allowing the quality to rise to the top under its own steam.

[Andrew Woodman]

I would draw the line from Bristol to the Wash to define where we need to make inroads. This report is what I've said all along. We need regional lists with local candidates. I live in a marginal where there is in many parts, a deep mistrust of what some might term 'outsiders'. If we put up a candidate from London or the Home Counties with a non local accent, we could lose key votes which could tip over the seat. This is what CCHQ is failing to understand and will cost us vital seats.

[Chad]

Well it wouldn't surprise me if Cameron and Maude proposed a fixed number of southern whippet and pigeon owners to resolve this issue.

Perhaps rename it the 'Haway' List? ;-)

[Richard]

How many of the candidates on the A List are northern?

[Neil Johnston]

Slightly tangential but at least people in the North are asked if they would vote Tory, etc! YouGov and Daily Telegraph seem to assume we are all happy to vote for parochial parties in Northern Ireland. For what its worth I have written to the Editor to complain!

[HF]

Yes the Conservatives do need to shift resource (cash) from its very safe seats to the marginals it needs to win.

One change in the battle with the Lib Dems is that becuase at GE2005 Conservatives stopped losing seats to the Lib Dems (and gained 39 councillors in local elections on May 4) we are in a better position to focus on gaining rather than defending seats in the South. Many Lib Dem MPs in the South have now become marginals and the South could return to the Conservatives with 10 Lib Dem losses.

What we have to do is get on with candidate selections and focus on local campaign support.

[Anthony Wells]

Tim. Worth noting that the YouGov figures for London are NOT for Greater London - they are for the London ITV television region, hence they include bits of Surrey, Essex, Kent and so on and normally show a whopping great Tory lead.

[Richard North]

I am afraid that, whichever way you package him, oop North 'ere, the Boy King comes over as a big girls blouse (or padded bra). He might go down well with you metropolitan clever-dicks, until you find something else to get excited about, but, as leader of a party that seems to get nose-bleeds when it comes this far north, he ain't going to hack it here.

[Cllr Francis Lankester]

The great weakness in our party has been the refusal to support potential candidates with a public sector background. It is an enduring blindspot. Apart from the question of being representative, too many leading Conservatives don't know what they are talking about (literally) when addressing schools and health issues.

A second failing is the refusal to turf out the seat blockers in safe seats to make way for new blood. The target seats cannot carry the load.

[Deputy Editor]

Thanks for the clarification Anthony.

Richard, in my experience Cameron isn't a great deal less popular up north than down south - but the party's focus/message remains out of touch with many northeners.

[Michael McGowan]

Councillor Lankester's comments are very true. The bed blocker problem will only be solved when a few constituencies rise in revolt and deselect their sitting MP. The Tory Party has been in opposition for so long that it has no powers of patronage to move useless incumbents sideways so they fight tooth and nail to hold onto their perks and privileges.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

I think lessons can be learned from some of the victories that took place in the local elections. Not wanting to get into a debate about how Northern a place is - but Bassetlaw as a constituency and also local authority in my book could be regarded as Northern. It is in the former Nottinghamshire coal fields and spreads nearly all the way up to Doncaster.

The main town Worksop has had serious drugs issues - yet what happened in the last local elections - The Tories took control and with 28 seats have double that of Labour on 14.

I am very passionate about this issue - and the party really does need to get the right candidates in the right seats. We can't afford to neglect these type of seats - as without the North and indeed Midlands we will never form a Government.

[Sean Fear]

If you look at the results across North and South London suburbia, you'll see that we're now about as strong as we were 20 years ago (in addition to making inroads into Inner London over that period).

Look at some of the individual ward results: Queensbury, 2,000 votes, Harrow on the Hill 1,500 votes, Kenton West 1,500 votes, Hale 2,300 votes and so on. These are areas of historic Conservative strength, which swung away from us massively from 1992 to 2001. By the mid nineties, many of these wards were returning Labour councillors, and contributing to Labour Parliamentary majorities.

They began switching back in the 2002 local elections and that process has gathered pace. But what has done it, IMO, is huge dissatisfaction with ever higher levels of taxation, while getting mediocre public services in return - it's not down to concern about the environment or social liberalism vs social conservatism.

[Richard North]

"Richard, in my experience Cameron isn't a great deal less popular up north than down south - but the party's focus/message remains out of touch with many northeners.

Posted by: Deputy Editor"

Rather depends who you talk to.

[Deputy Editor]

Admittedly "my experience" was just with people in Liverpool, Manchester and the Yorkshire Dales - short of commissioning a full-blown survey on the matter in whatever is agreed to be 'the north', that is the best I can offer!

[Chad]

Based on the excellent advice given here, it would be interesting if conHome could contact the a-listers and ask them these three questions?

* What class do you define yourself as (upper, middle or working class)?
* Do you work in the public sector?
* Do you consider yourself a northerner or a southerner?

I'd love to see the real figures.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Id be interested to hear any suggestions of what readers think may work better in Northern towns and citie sin terms of campaigning

[Richard]

"Id be interested to hear any suggestions of what readers think may work better in Northern towns and citie sin terms of campaigning"

Not being a northener I can't really shed a light on northern concerns. If it is true that northeners are keener on core issues such as crime and immigration then there should perhaps be more emphasis on those. Maybe the best idea is to initiate some surveys to see what issues concern northeners the most and then campaign on those issues. Or just get some canvassers to find out.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

It's the payroll vote. So many public sector employees, so many whose jobs depend indirectly on increased public spending, so many people dependent on benefits. The North East's economy would disappear if you took away the state, paid for by southern tax payers, which only reinforces the lack of investment in the region. Conservative hatred has become a religion up here, and all the problems of this generation of young adults eg crime, drugs, a stagnant economy have been blamed on their being "Thatchers Children" Point is, there's a lot of history and misinformation here. Socialism failed the north, not us.

[Gareth]

I'm not for one second saying that there isn't a problem with the party's slower recovery north of Watford, but we should be careful when analysing the problem by reference to the local election results. The London seats were last fought in 2002 whilst the provincial metropolitan seats were last contested in 2004. 2004 was a much better year for us than 2002 and, clearly, there was a larger harvest of Labour seats to be brought in in London.

Having said that, my politics were London based until 2004 and are now Birmingham based, and I have no doubt that our revival has much further to go here than in the metropolis. I'm unsure, as yet, as to why that is the case, but have some ideas fermenting.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Henry - its interesting you say that. I know the drugs problem is certain areas where I campaigned was put down to "Thatcher closing the pits" - yet at the same time the MP claimed full employment in his constituency. Hardly a coherent argument - but that never stopped New Labour.

[Richard]

Maybe our only hope is to win an election backed by the South and the Midlands, shrink the size of the state in the North and hope the ensuing economic growth causes them to vote Tory. Far-fetched I know but I'm procrastinating from revision at the moment.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Richard - I prefer going out there in these so called Tory no go areas and take our message to the electorate. With the right message and right candidates we can win back support.

You only have to look at what Thatcher did with what was called the "New Working class". They didnt vote Tory because they saw themselves as Tory. They saw issues that resonated with their aspirations - and voted for us in spite of their background. It was one of the reasons I joined the party. What we need to do is re-engage in many areas of the country who have probably never met a Conservative, never had a leaflet, never had their door knocked on by our party.

[Gareth]

Whilst I agree that Labour have overseen an unprecedented expansion of a 'client-electorate' of state employees and that this is particularly felt in the north and midlands, I think we also need to be honest about some of the other reasons Labour support is so solid in those regions.

When I moved to B'ham, after 11 years in London, I was struck by the very strong sense of regional and city pride. This is closely connected to a sense of optimism about how the city is improving. B'ham, Manchester, Leeds and so many other provoncial cities, have enjoyed the most extraordinary renaissance since the mid-1990's and, unfortunately, Labour have taken a lot of the credit for those changes. These cities just look and feel a lot more prosperous than, in very recent times, they did. Our years in power, particularly the early 1980's and early 1990's, on the other hand, are associated with the years of decline.

I suppose what I'm driving at, is that the '90's economic boom was especially kind to the provincial cities and, as long as Labour take the credit for the boom they will take the credit for the improvement in these cities.

[SimonNewman]

Re London:
"They began switching back in the 2002 local elections and that process has gathered pace. But what has done it, IMO, is huge dissatisfaction with ever higher levels of taxation, while getting mediocre public services in return - it's not down to concern about the environment or social liberalism vs social conservatism."

That was my experience canvassing in Tooting (Wandsworth) and in Merton. People are sick of ever higher taxes and ever poorer services from the government and in (what were) Labour councils like Merton.

Nationally the payroll vote issue is a real one; massive amounts of money are transferred from the south-east to the north , and the perception is that Labour transfers more than the Tories would; so this wins Tory votes in the south and loses them in the north. From my experience, in the north the NHS functions reasonably well, while in the south it's a disaster - because a nationally-set nurse's salary is a decent income in Sheffield (or Belfast) but not in Brent or Tooting. This may partly explain why the Midlands is more promising territory than the north - even though the cost of living in Coventry more resembles the north, funds transfer does not; poor parts of the Midlands seem largely ignored by the government and get far less public money than does the north.

[Sean Fear]

I'm sure there's a lot of truth in that Gareth. What's curious is that the economic renaissance of some Northern cities certainly predates the nineties. Leeds, for example, boomed during the eighties, and that's continued ever since. Even Newcastle was in much better shape economically by 1997 than it had been in 1979. Both cities benefitted from a very big growth in professional and financial services.

Yet in neither case, were the Conservatives given any credit for it.

[Mike Christie]

Well, I'm northern and I work in the public sector, although that is a fairly recent development.

The problem as far as I see it is that many people do not see the Conservative party as being people like them. As long as we parachute candidates in to seats that will persist.

[a 20yo conservative]

re: Thatcher closing the pits

When ever i'm campaigning and they throw "Thatcher did this..." at me, I just tell them I'm 20 and I really dont remember. "But I do know that TODAY'S conservatives will...."

It is effective, shuts them up.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Yes - the fact that I was four when Mrs Thatcher came to power and that actually my Grandad ran the local Miners welfare did seem to open a few eyes when chatting with a few people who were initially quite hostile to the party.

The problem is that they belive in the stereotypical Tory - silver spoon, pin stripe suit - but when you turn up on the doorstep and tell them you were brought up in single parent family, you know about the public sector as thats where the majority of your career so far has been spent - then they are suddenly prepapred to give you the benefit of the doubt.

[Gareth]

I agree Sean, although I think that, actually, we got some credit for the start of regeneration in the '87 and '92 elections.

The seats we have lost and, depressingly, seem further away from winning than ever are suburban seats in the major cities that, if they were in London would either have been won back or almost won back. I'm thinking of seats like Hazel Grove, the 2 Bury seats and Cheadle in Manchester. Sheffield Hallam. The North Leeds seats. B'ham Hall Green, B'ham Yardley and B'ham Northfield.

In some of these seats, our vote is actually lower now than it was in 1997! It goes without saying that these are the sort of seats we need to win back if we are ever to have a majority. By and large, if these seats were in London, we'd still be well in contention in them.

[rigger mortice]

the problem with our chances in the midlands and the north is that we don't stand enough southern lawyers.

[Gareth]

Better a southern lawyer than someone who can't spell 'rigor mortis'.

[wasp]

It didn't help when IDS turned up in Washington and said how pleased he was to be in Newcastle.

Symptomatic that much of the north is a foreign country to the hierarchy.

[paul kane]

You just don't get it. The very fact that you have not yet apologised for everything that went on in the 1980s is the very reason why people in the "North" is why they will not vote for you. Like a latter-day Khushchev you need to renounce Thatcher and all she did. But of course you never will so stop trying to win Northern seats.

By the way, calling it "the North" does not help, it is not a unified entity and it makes it sound like you see us as a foreign country. Equally, whippet jokes just get on our nerves, no matter how tongue in cheek they are. Look back at some of these posts and they read like patronising tosh that shows no insight. One person says "I don't know what people in the North want" - try good schools, hospitals, safe streets and low interest rates!

[Gareth]

Paul,

Mrs Thatcher was elected 3 times and carried out the platform on which she was elected. She won unprecedentedly high numbers of seats in the north of England in 1983 and 1987 in particular.

There is absolutely nothing wrong in referring to the north as 'the north'. I say that as a northerner.

This is a tory blog. I'm sure you'll find www.tedioushistoryrewriter.com more to your taste.

[Yet Another Anon]

The suggestion that the Conservative Party may be piling up votes mostly in safe seats while failing to make gains in support in Wales, Northern England and in Scotland doesn't surprise me in the least, I rather suspected that might be happening - it tallies a bit with the Local Election Results.

Surely as a means around it might be to make it so that if a candidate wins 2/3 of the vote in a seat then they get 2 votes and if they win every vote (implausible but for consistency it would have to be there) then they would get 3 votes in the House of Commons, or even go the whole Hog and just make it so that any candidate with a third of the vote or more gets elected with a vote in parliament and for every additional third they get an additional third (The Liberal Democrats might be interested in such a system) and a candidate even coming first with less than a third of the vote would get to speak but not vote in the House of Commons and maybe would get a reduced salary. However this is rather what is referred to as a chicken and egg situation, so it could only be implimented after an election.

[Sean Fear]

If the local election results had been repeated nationally, then the Tories would have won an overall majority - albeit a rather odd looking majority.

There are a stack of marginal seats that have to be won in London, the South and Midlands, as well as in the North.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>She won unprecedentedly high numbers of seats in the north of England in 1983 and 1987 in particular.<<<<
Are you sure you don't mean 1979 and 1983, in fact 1987 was when people actually started talking about a Labour North compared to a Conservative South and in fact in 1992 in Scotland anyway the Conservatives actually revived very slightly.

[J.W.Tozer]

This idea that 'outsiders' are unable to win certain seats???

Teddy Taylor lost his Glasgow seat in 1979, the last working class Scottish seat held by the Tories. He was parachuted into a Southend seat at a byelection. After a very hard fought campaign won it by a small margin. Held it for the Tories till his recent retirement. Why because he was a very hard working MP! Sometimes people look for excuses for failure.

Lets also look a the payroll vote. There are thousand of people in this country whose votes are bought with taxpayers money, some of them are very well off indeed, many of them live in the south, they are called farmers!

Let's show the people of the north and elsewhere, that the Tory party is through with socialism for the rich.Lets stop all subsidies/grants etc, give the money saved, in tax cuts, about 3p in the standard rate. Return the countryside to the free market, let Adam Smith's 'invisible hand of the market place' have its way.

The farmers' are once again moaning that their 'bung' is late, STOP GIVING THEM THEIR BRIBES

[stephan shakespeare]

To emphasise again on the 47%:

The DT today reports as our 'London' figures that are, in fact, figures for the wider 'London TV region'. As Anthony Wells on PollingReport.co.uk says,

"Alas, for any excited Conservatives out there, it isn’t quite accurate. On YouGov’s detailed tables, the regions listed aren’t the government regions, they are ITV television regions. In practice that means that London covers not just London, but big chunks of the home counties, which tend to vote Conservative. With bits of Surrey, Essex and Sussex thrown in the London TV region is far more Tory than Greater London, and that 25% lead suddenly isn’t nearly as impressive as it sounds."

The DT accidentally mistook our tables.

[YorkshireLad]

"The seats we have lost and, depressingly, seem further away from winning than ever are suburban seats in the major cities that, if they were in London would either have been won back or almost won back. I'm thinking of seats like Hazel Grove, the 2 Bury seats and Cheadle in Manchester. Sheffield Hallam. The North Leeds seats. B'ham Hall Green, B'ham Yardley and B'ham Northfield."

Absolutely.

When we were in power we held 4 Leeds seats plus a number of others dotted about West Yorkshire. At the local elections the other week we had 5 or 6 target wards and won none of them, which shows we're not making that much impact up here yet.

I'd hope though that once the Policy Groups report and we have some serious ideas about schools,hospitals, crime etc we might get somewhere. I also think we need to seriously think about local candidates rather than taking them all of the "A-list".

[Andrew Woodman]

J.W.Tozer, You could also cite Norman Lamont in Harrogate which has lost that seat for quite a while now.

There are certain seats where parachuting won't affect the result, but then there are other seats (Cornwall for instance) where a local candidate is key due to the feeling of local identity and pride.

[Gareth]

In fact, the 1979 election showed precisely the north/south divide that may be emerging now. Mrs T failed to pick up a clutch of northern seats that, on the basis of the national swing, ought to have fallen her way but won seats in the south on swings way above average. The accepted wisdom at the time was that the winter of discontent had been disproportionately severe in the south, but who knows?

In 1987, the tories held on to both Bury seats, both Bolton seats, Hazel Grove, Pendle, Rossendale and Darwen, Batley and Spen, both Blackpool seats, Crosby, Stockport, Lancashire West, Langbaurgh etc. etc. Other than Bolton West, we're miles away from winning any of these seats at the moment.

IIRC, the only north west seat we lost in 1987 was Manchester Withington (where the demographics were moving dramatically against us). That's from memory though so I could be wrong.

[YorkshireLad]

That should be "from the A-list", and target wards refers to just Leeds, not the whole county.

[Andrew Kennedy]

"You just don't get it. The very fact that you have not yet apologised for everything that went on in the 1980s is the very reason why people in the "North" is why they will not vote for you..."

Sorry to labour a point Paul but:

1983 Election
(results from North West, North East and Yorkshire Regions)
Con 3,007,000
Lab 2,835,000

1987 Election:
Con 2,914,000
Lab 2,898,000

Given Mrs Thatcher won a majority of the votes in "the north" what exactly are you asking us to apologise for ?

By the way - before you attack me for patronising you - I was born in Wakefield and lived in Merseyside until I was 20.

[Sean Fear]

Ah, I hadn't spotted Paul's comments. I'm not sure what there is to apologise for. Bringing 40 or so years of relative economic decline to an end is something to be proud of, rather than ashamed of.

[Gareth]

Well done Andrew! Game, set and match I think. What a shame 'Paul' seems to have disappeared before his 'argument' received the comprehensive demolition job it so richly deserved.

[William]

The farmers' are once again moaning that their 'bung' is late, STOP GIVING THEM THEIR BRIBES

Okay - as long as farmers are allowed to compete freely in world markets and are not limited to growing corn by EU quotas.

Our climate is not suited to growing corn most years - too wet - it is far more suited to grass, and yet corn is the only crop not quota'd.

Farmers are prevented from producing milk, even when cheese factories are short of it. They can produce as much corn as they like.

Get rid of the market manipulation that forces farmers to be uneconomic, and you would not need to subsidise the industry to the same extent.

But French farmers and cheese makers need to be protected under the deal done by Edward Heath way back when.

We are paying a far higher price for EU membership than is realised.

Farming is a bigger industry relative to population in the North than the South, I would imagine. Maybe there's some votes in it.

[Gareth]

William,

Please go and derail some other thread with your EU obsession. This one has been maintaining an unusually high level of interesting exchange of ideas and theories, heretofore.

[Richard]

"Well, I'm northern and I work in the public sector, although that is a fairly recent development."

I think we have to differentiate between proper public sector jobs (doctors, nurses etc) and non-jobs (smoking cessation officers, outreach workers etc).

"One person says "I don't know what people in the North want""

I actually said I couldn't shed a light on northern concerns i.e. which issues they prioritise above others. For example it is often suggested that southeners are more concerned about the environment. Obviously we all WANT good schools and hospitals etc. The question is, which areas do we emphasise in different parts of the country?