Labour's triple whammy Wednesday looks set to give David Cameron a good night on Thursday. A BPIX survey for today's Mail on Sunday asked 2,094 people whether they were certain to vote in May 4th's local elections. Of those who said 'yes' 35% will support the Tories and only 26% Labour. The LibDems are also set for a good set of results if they achieve BPIX's projected 23%. A projection by Thrasher & Rallings for The Sunday Times gives the Tories a 35% to 28% lead over Labour in the locals with the LibDems on 27%. There must be a strong possibility that Labour will finish third on Thursday given the continuing daily drip-drip of bad news.
The Conservatives are 3% ahead in BPIX's standard voting intentions poll although their overall support is down 2% since 9th April's MoS poll. Part of the explanation for this fall in Tory support over the month may be the fact that the BNP are now registering (with 5%).
This is the first time in the short history of ConservativeHome's Poll of Polls that the Tories have been ahead of Labour. The poll of polls and the YouGov and BPIX polls are telling the almost exact same story:
- The Tories are stable in the mid-thirties;
- Labour are sliding to the low thirties;
- The LibDems have moved back up into the 20s.
There is support in both polls for the resignations of Labour's most troubled three ministers and The Sunday Times finds huge disappointment at Labour's record on crime:
"An overwhelming majority, 89%, says the failure to deport foreign prisoners on release “reflects alarming incompetence”. A big majority, 72%, also think this is true of the government’s overall performance on crime and immigration, which they say has been “generally incompetent”. Only 18% say the record has been good."