ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Tories promise to tackle root causes of homelessness with new Foundation

Speaking yesterday at the launch of the Conservative Party's new Homelessness Foundation, at the Crisis charity, David Cameron said: "Homelessness isn't just about literally having no roof over your head.  We're also ignoring what's called the 'hidden homeless'.  That's the people who move from one sofa to another, night after night, with no stability and no security.  And it's the families who are forced to live in crowded conditions in hostels and B&Bs while they wait to be re-housed."  David Cameron's full remarks are here.

The Foundation will look at how public policy might be reshaped to tackle homelessness in all of its forms.  There will be a particular emphasis on the root causes of homelessness.  Grant Shapps, Tory housing spokesman, told ConservativeHome that he had invited all of the leading charities to join the Foundation and all had accepted.  John Bird of The Big Issue (to which Iain Duncan Smith has become a contributor) will be one of the advisors.  Also involved are Thames Reach Bondway, Homeless Link,  Shelter, Crisis (which has Tory origins), the Simon Community and St Mungo's.  It really is a sign of the times that these charities are willing to sign up to a Conservative research organisation.

The Foundation's Advisory Board looks vulnerable to being captured by the big, established charities in our view but Grant insists that smaller groups, following different approaches, like Aquila Way in Gateshead, will also be involved.

David Cameron may not want to campaign on Europe but it'll be a "huge" issue for a Tory government

In E!Sharp, the FT's Philip Stephens writes:

"Press [Cameron] hard on what precisely he means by refusing to let the matter rest and, to put it kindly, he blinks: it's too early to say, let's not speculate. Go on to ask how Europe ranks among his campaigning priorities and the answer is not very high at all. Perhaps 7th or 8th on the list, I have heard him say".

That may be wise politics but The Economist provides a useful reminder that Europe will be "huge" for the Tories once (hopefully) in government.  Reviewing two recent books on Britain's relationship with the EU, The Economist writes:

"The book [by Sir Stephen Wall] makes clear two important things about today's EU.

First, it pervades almost every corner of public policy. New parliamentarians and ministers are often taken aback by how much of their work involves Brussels—and by how little they know of the EU's methods.

Second is the importance of heads of government in the European Council, now the club's dominant policymaking body. That puts its direction in the hands notably of Number Ten, the Elysée in Paris and the federal chancellery in Berlin—which is why direct personal involvement by national leaders counts more than ever."

Hat tip to Open Europe.  Both of these articles were highlighted in their daily email.

Related link: This piece by Jim McConalogue explains why the EU is "huge" for Britain.

Forget climate change, voters want more loose change

The economy has overtaken immigration as voters' top concern.

Tax has overtaken law and order.

Inflation has overtaken the environment.

The findings come from the new opinion tracker of 5,000 voters hosted by PoliticsHome.com and powered by YouGov.

Anthony Wells writes:

"As the economy heads for trouble, there has been a remarkable shift in the public priorities. Issues like the environment have moved down the agenda and people have started worrying about tax and inflation. Less regular trackers from other companies have shown immigration as the big issues for a couple of years now - so to see it knocked off the top spot indicates a major change in public opinion."

More here.  The Tory leadership has recognised the change of mood.  Talk of green taxes hasn't just been dumped; Conservatives are now campaigning against at least one of Labour's planned taxes.

Abraham Maslow predicted all of this in 1943.

Live chatroom for BBC1's Question Time from 10.30pm

Tonight's panel: Health Secretary Alan Johnson, Alan Duncan, Plaid Cymru's spokesperson for health and social services in the Welsh Assembly Helen Mary Jones, broadcaster and journalist Lauren Booth and businessman Simon Woodroffe.

Scottish Tories lead calls for inquiry into last night's violence in Manchester

The ITN video above records how Manchester police were seemingly attacked by angry supporters of Glasgow Rangers.  Murdo Fraser MSP of the Scottish Tories has called for an urgent inquiry:

“Recent CCTV footage, which was not available this morning, shows the situation was far more serious than any of us at first suspected. The attacks on police officers and paramedics are deplorable and have to be condemned without reservation. The perpetrators need to be brought to justice and dealt with by the courts and Rangers Football Club should ban those who have played any part in these despicable acts.  This new footage only serves to underline the need for an urgent inquiry. I am pleased such a measure has now been announced. It may be a minority of Rangers supporters who were involved, but their behaviour is inexcusable and it has heaped shame upon their club and country.”

The violence flared after a big screen - set up for ticketless supporters - failed to work.

Liam Fox is leader of the Right within shadow cabinet

Earlier this week we published the results of our survey of leading 'voices of the parliamentary Right' from outside the frontbench.  John Redwood, then Norman Tebbit, then IDS were the voices most recognised by Tory members.  We also ran a separate question for the frontbench: "Who is the single most effective voice of 'the Right' on the Conservative frontbench, including the shadow cabinet and the House of Lords?"

Unlike with the question for the non-frontbench we asked people to 'write in' answers.  In other words, they didn't have a list to choose from.  94% of the 1,159 people who volunteered an answer identified just three people: Liam Fox, David Davis and William Hague:

The survey shows that 44% of members regard Dr Liam Fox, Shadow Defence Secretary as the most effective voice of the Right on the frontbench.  In many ways Dr Fox fits the popular idea of a 'right-winger'.  He is strongly pro-American and Eurosceptic.   He is pro-marriage and supports a much lower time limit on abortion.  He favours lower taxation and advocated much more patient choice when he was the party's health spokesman.  Like IDS, however, he is also at the forefront of the party's social justice agenda.  The language of 'broken society' agenda was first employed by Dr Fox during his leadership bid.  Writing for ConservativeHome in November 2005, Michael Gove drew parallels with the Fox and Cameron agendas.  Michael Gove's article makes even more interesting reading in retrospect.

The "nice decade" is over

Poor Gordon.  Today was his big relaunch but what does the main evening BBC news bulletin lead with?  Mervyn King's warning that the road ahead - on economic growth, inflation and house prices - is going to be rocky.  Mervyn is right, of course.

Boris Johnson resumes his Telegraph column

The London Evening Standard's Paul Waugh reveals that Boris Johnson will resume his Telegraph column - estimated to be worth £250,000 a year.  He'll donate 10% of this to journalism bursaries and 10% to the teaching of classics in London's state schools.

Boris must have decided he needs the money.  As Mayor he receives £137,000 but that's a lot less than he is used to.  Paul Waugh has already dubbed him 'Four Jobs Johnson' because of this column, his Mayoralty,  and his chairmanship of Transport for London and the Metropolitan Police Authority.

It is, of course, 'Five Jobs Johnson' until he stands down as an MP.  Henley is not, however, on the new list of Tory Associations seeking applications from candidates.   With the LibDems pouring resources into Henley the Tories need to select soon.

Related video: Boris attempts to describe Britishness in this 150 second YouTube for the Equality Commission.

Still governing by proxy

We thought we'd resurrect the above graphic (from last October) to mark Labour's latest attempts to copy Tory policies.  Brown made his draft Queen's Speech statement earlier and David Cameron noticed quite a lot of policy pinching.  During PMQs Brown had accused the Tory leader of being shallow.  Cameron responded: "He can’t really say we haven’t got any substance when he’s taken it all and put it in his Queen’s Speech."

CCHQ has just published a "dirty dozen" of Tory policies that Labour has stolen (but won't implement properly).  See this PDF.

The text of David Cameron's full response to the Queen's Speech is here.

Live PMQs blog from noon

12.42pm: Thanks to PoliticsHome.com here is a YouTube of the main Brown V Cameron exchanges:

Highlights, not verbatim:

12.29pm: Richard Bacon asks the PM to name and shame the nations blocking progress on Burma at the UN.  Brown declines to do so but says that the Government is doing all it can to overcome the blockage.

12.27pm: Greg Hands MP notes that Boris Johnson has got off to a flying start; banning alcohol on the tube, planting 10,000 more trees and reviewing City Hall finances.  Why hasn't Gordon Brown rung him to congratulate the new Mayor?  Brown says he congratulated Boris in the House last week.  Not quite true.  He merely welcomed him to the Commons.

12.25pm: In reply to a planted question from Nigel Griffiths MP, Brown says that voters will never forget that the Conservatives are the party of three million unemployed, 15% interest rates and record home repossessions.  Labour is the party that will intervene to defend the poor, he continues.   

12.22pm: Nicholas Winterton attacks Brown's taxation of motorists, noting that UK drivers are the most taxed in Europe.  The PM quotes Steve Norris back at him and his argument that taxation of cars needs to rise.

Senior Tories promise to vote for lower abortion limit

The Daily Mail lists some of the senior Tories who are backing all-party efforts to reduce the time limit for abortions:

• David Cameron favours a cut to 21 or 22 weeks (from the current 24).
• Chris Grayling favours 20 weeks and told the Mail: "If we are in a position where babies can survive at 23 weeks, then 24 weeks is utterly unacceptable."
• Liam Fox: "I am going to vote for a reduction to 20 weeks. Our laws are much too liberal."  During the Conservative leadership race Dr Fox, a former GP, called for a 12 week limit: "I think that a society that actually aborts 180,000 unborn children every year is a society that needs to be asking a lot of questions about itself… For me it's a simple personal belief. It says, thou shall not kill, it doesn't say, thou shall not kill unless Parliament says it's OK."
• William Hague is going to support a lower limit.
• David Davis also is thought to favour a lower limit.
• Andrew Lansley favours a reduction to 22 weeks but also favours a more liberal regime for earlier abortions: "If a woman needs an abortion, then it must be better for that to be an early and medical abortion, rather than later and surgical."

The campaign for twenty weeks is being led by Nadine Dorries MP.  The campaign's website lists twenty reasons why the abortion limit should be reduced to twenty weeks.

Not all Tories are on Ms Dorries' side of the argument.  On her blog she described how John Bercow described her views as "antediluvian" and "prejudiced".  She also writes this:

"Late surgical abortions mean that a baby is dismembered in the womb, and removed limb by limb, head often last.  Professor Anand, incredibly well respected and acknowledged as the world's leading expert in foetal pain, believes that a foetus feels pain as low as 18 weeks gestation. Before the dismembering takes place, the baby is injected with a lethal injection of Potassium into its heart, via the mother's abdominal wall. I will leave it to you to imagine how much distress and pain this may cause the baby."

ConservativeHome wishes her every success with her campaign and we are proud that most senior Tories are on her side.

"This is a bribe"

The great Eric Pickles has just called from Crewe.  He was out canvassing and the Darling announcement had already reached peoples' ears.  Crewe's verdict: "overwhelmingly negative".  Here are some of the things that were said to Eric:

• This is a bribe.
• This is all being paid for on the never, never. We'll all end up paying even extra in the long run.
• The only thing Brown wants to do is save his neck. He doesn't care about us.
• It's too little, too late.

Labour did the right thing today - but for the wrong reasons.  Gordon Brown still should get punished in Crewe for his tax on the poor - now, partly - but not wholly, reversed.

Darling raises tax allowances to compensate 10p tax victims

Developing >>>

3.49pm: Darling - Individual tax allowance up £600 but (IT SEEMS) for just one year - to £6,035.

3.49pm: Highlights of George Osborne's response:

• "Humiliating" for the Chancellor to have to make the tenth emergency statement since becoming Chancellor
• "Humiliating" to have to introduce a mini-budget to compensate for Gordon Brown's tax con Budget of 2007
• This is less like a considered statement from a Chancellor - more like a cynical press release in the middle of a by-election campaign
• What are the long-term plans to compensate people?  This is just a one-off measure - like the pre-election council tax discount.

3.55pm: Vince Cable welcomes the statement but attacks Darling for not giving him or George Osborne any pre-notification of the announcement.  He asks how many people will NOT be fully compensated by this move and urges the Chancellor to reconsider giving a rebate to people.

3.58pm: Frank Field apologises to the Prime Minister for what he said at the weekend about Mr Brown.

4.05pm CONSERVATIVEHOME'S VERDICT: Cynical?  Yes. Related to the by-election?  Yes.  Forced upon Labour?  Yes.  Even more borrowing?  Yes.  The right thing?  On the face of it, Yes.  As Lord Forsyth advocated some weeks ago: Raising the personal tax allowance was the right response to this issue.  The Tories should have recommended this option weeks ago, too.  We should now press for these higher thresholds to be made permanent.  It is right that as many low income people as possible are taken out of the tax system.

4.30pm: Nick Robinson's take: "Labour MPs are happier than they have been for weeks and the Tories, for the first time in a long time, look wrong footed."

4.43pm: Download PDF of full statement from George Osborne.

4.49pm: Guido welcomes Labour's "unfunded tax cut"!

4.52pm: TaxPayers' Alliance's response: "This 10p saga has been a mess from the beginning and this is a poor attempt to fix it. Large numbers of people on low incomes will still lose out, and even those the Chancellor says will be compensated are simply being given their own money back. It is a sorry state of affairs when taxation is pushing millions of families to the brink and the Government struggles to even make up for its own bad decisions. People urgently need Alistair Darling to make serious reductions in the tax burden, but at the moment he barely seems capable of tinkering around the edges.”

5.30pm: ThreeLineWhip: The Tories should have listened to Forsyth on 10p tax

5.59pm: From George Osborne: "What he didn’t tell us was that 1.1 million low earners on between £6,635 and £13,355 will still be worse off, by up to £112 a year. So the poorest people will still lose out."

The leaders of The Right

Yesterday evening we noted that 'The Right' was quite an unsatisfactory term but in the April survey of members we asked Tory members to vote for 'the most powerful voice of the Right' (a voice from within Parliament but not serving on the frontbench).  We'll be unveiling the results for the frontbench tomorrow.  This list of twelve followed a rudimentary shortlisting process on this page.  The results represent the views of 1,657 Tory members.

1st: John Redwood MP: 27%

The man who, in 1995, resigned as Welsh Secretary to challenge John Major for the Conservative Party leadership is the most powerful parliamentary voice of 'the Right' according to just over a quarter of Tory members.  David Cameron appointed Mr Redwood to run the party's policy group on economic competitiveness and his recommendation to abolish inheritance tax has (largely) been accepted by the party.  His scepticism about green taxation and controls on development have also tended to prevail over the more restrictionist approach favoured by John Gummer's policy group.  Mr Redwood has put forward his own ideas for a 'practical environmentalism'.  Now blogging on a daily basis, ConservativeHome has previously paid tribute to the economic insight of his regular posts.

2nd: Lord (Norman) Tebbit: 25%

The former Tory Party Chairman and scourge of trade union barons was just 2% behind John Redwood as the leading right-of-centre voice.  With Britain's first woman Prime Minister unable to make serious, public political interventions anymore Lord Tebbit is seen by many as the pre-eminent keeper of the Thatcherite flame.  He was in the newspapers recently calling for the Conservative Party to focus on winning the support of the millions of voters who have stopped participating in the democratic process.  Also recently, he attacked Michael Gove's views on Tony Blair and defended Tony Blair's decision to stop the probe into British Aerospace's arm sales to Saudi Arabia.

3rd: Iain Duncan Smith MP: 14%

Another policy group chief, Iain Duncan Smith, is third on the list.  The former Conservative leader's social justice work has restored a reputation that took such a battering when he was leader.  His Centre for Social Justice is hugely influential on Project Cameron and he now works closely with politicians from other parties.  This cross-party character may have produced the large number of comments from readers as to whether IDS could still be thought of as "right-wing".  The great strength of IDS' commitment to poverty-fighting is that it is based on an authentically conservative worldview.  He sees the free institutions of civil society as central to defeating the poverty that has come to characterise too much of big state Britain.

Boris more popular than Dave

PoliticsHome.com has just launched its daily opinion tracker of 5,000 UK voters.  The tracker provided the main splash in this weekend's Observer.

Its latest finding is that more voters are impressed with Boris Johnson than David Cameron.  The advantage is small.  3% more voters have a positive impression of Boris than have a negative impression.  David Cameron's advantage is +1%.  The graph on the right summarises the men's changing ratings: Cameron's rating is the blue line, Boris' line is green.  As well as this being a honeymoon period for London's new Mayor, it's also true that voters probably judge the two men according to different standards.

Boris confirmed yesterday that he would be scrapping Ken Livingstone's Londoner - a taxpayer-funded propaganda sheet that has rightly annoyed Conservatives for many years.  Not publishing it will save £2.9m.  £1m of the savings will be used to plant 10,000 'street trees' - particularly in London's least green, poorer communities.  Boris commented:

“There was little commitment of resources from Ken Livingstone to reverse the trend of decline in the number of street trees. I am taking immediate action to reverse this short-sighted decision.  In the last few years a third of boroughs have seen a decline in the number of street trees. Many London streets, particularly in deprived areas, have no street trees at all.  I believe that as many areas as possible should enjoy the many advantages that street trees bring. So today I have taken the decision to cut unnecessary funding of the Mayor’s personal publicity budget to plant 10,000 street trees by the end of my first term.  Trees improve the street environment in which Londoners live and work so I will do all I can to save the trees we have and campaign for more trees to protect London’s open spaces.”

City Hall has also announced that Kulveer Ranger will be Boris Johnson's transport adviser.  The Tory A-lister was, according to a press statement, "the lead delivery manager of the Oystercard for London in 2003 and led commercial negotiations on behalf of the Secretary of State supporting the King’s Cross redevelopment."

11.45am: Interesting post from the essential Phil Taylor on the trees policy. The Tory Ealing councillor asks if Boris is "subsidising feckless Labour boroughs that refuse to spend out on street trees whilst careful boroughs that provide street trees will not benefit?"

Right?

Each day this week - beginning properly tomorrow - ConservativeHome will be looking at the health of the 'Tory Right'.  A question in the April survey of members and readers suggests, however, that the 'Right' may be an unhelpful describer.  We asked the question, "How would you describe 'the Right of the Conservative Party'?"  We received 883 answers to the question and these ten verbatim responses all appeared within the first 100 replies:

1. "Very weird/deluded
2. It is not Right wing, it is Reactionary wing. Same people who resisted Thatcher, now resist new ideas again.
3. Somewhat out of touch with mainstream politics. Some of them verge on the dangerous.
4. Out of touch with the general electorate and who are far too vocal.
5. People who have forgotten that one can only win power by attracting votes from outside the ranks of core supporters.
6. A little too detached from the need to debate in private and stand together in public.
7. In danger of perpetuating the view of many of the electorate of wanting to bring back 'Thatcher-style' policies.
8. Out of touch and a hinderance to winning a general election.
9. As a group strategically inept.
10. The "saloon bar" party - appeals to our gut instincts but doesn't realise that the world has changed."

Hmmm. Remember - these are Conservative Party members.  The series begins tomorrow.

Labour should keep Brown in place

Remember that photo from 1992 that showed John Major with his head in his hands?  The camera can be very cruel and this image from Sky is very unkind to Gordon Brown.

How bad is it for the PM?  Bad and getting worse:

• Hot on the heels of 'the May Day massacre' we have Frank Field threatening to no confidence the PM if he doesn't complete a full u-turn on 10p.
• Mr Field - again - has said that he would be "very surprised" if Gordon Brown was still Prime Minister by the time of the General Election.  Every Conservative's favourite Labour MP told the BBC World Service that Mr Brown appeared "so unhappy inside his own body" and was prone to "indescribable" rages.
• Mr Brown had to travel through a valley of memoirs at the weekend and an opinion poll suggesting Crewe is likely to be lost to the Conservatives.  And Labour are fighting a campaign that the party's own activists have dubbed "disgusting".
• We've had another attempt at a relaunch this morning but (as was obvious from the 8.10am Today interview with Alan Johnson) we're not getting any decisive government action on social care for the elderly but yet another review.

But is Labour's fundamental problem its leader or an overall sense of exhaustion?  There is no obvious alternative to Mr Brown and, as Louise Bagshawe noted a month ago, Labour's internal rules make it very hard to unseat him.  We'd also recommend that Brown is left in place unless he chooses to quit.  The toppling of Margaret Thatcher in 1990 may have brought short-term electoral gain for the Conservatives but it injected a poison into the party's bloodstream for many years.  Our party is only just rediscovering the importance of loyalty.  Labour should use its remaining time in government to govern and face the electorate in 2010 with Gordon Brown as its leader.

What will a Cameron premiership be like?

It's a premature question but, according to the latest ConservativeHome survey of members and readers, 93% of you think that it is "very likely" or "fairly likely" that 10 Downing Street will be home to the Camerons after the next election.

As we try and answer the question five pointers stand out as guides to what a Prime Minister Cameron might be like.  Our list would include:

• His policy priorities and manifesto
• The people he has already picked for his inner circle and for his frontbench
• How he has reacted to big events during his leadership
• How he has managed the Conservative Party since becoming leader
• His conduct before he became leader and as a younger man.

So: How is David Cameron performing on those five criteria?  Here is our assessment...

Lord Forsyth: England and Scotland should vote on the future of the Union in May 2009

Lord Forsyth was interviewed last night by Andrew Neil for BBC News' Straight Talk.  In a wide-ranging interview in which he attributed his political conversion to the Adam Smith Institute and urged the party to cut taxes for low income workers, the last Conservative Secretary of State for Scotland urged David Cameron to join with Wendy Alexander and other Unionists and hold a vote on independence next May, 2009.

Alex Salmond's agenda is quite clear, Michael Forsyth told Andrew Neil.  The SNP leader expects - "rightly" - that the Tories will win the next General Election but won't have many MPs from Scotland.  He calculates that that situation will maximise the chances of Scotland voting 'Yes' to independence in 2010.  Following Alex Salmond's timetable, Lord Forsyth argues, won't be in the interests of the Union.  Delay and uncertainty on this issue is "debilitating", bad for business, he says, and the Unionist parties should come together now and "lay the issue to rest" once and for all.  A referendum should ideally be held next May and both the English and Scottish should be able to say whether they want the Union to continue.  [Presumably the Welsh and Northern Irish, too?].

Lord Forsyth said that he was confident that the Union would be affirmed in any such vote.  The SNP, he said, didn't come to power because of their opposition to the Union but simply because it was the party best placed to end Labour rule in Scotland.

Boris' first week

ConservativeHome's favourite seven moments:

The London-New York partnership.  Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York, was not an admirer of Ken Livingstone but there was real warmth during yesterday's meeting with Boris Johnson at City Hall.  Both men are promising lots of co-operation and a new exchange programme, of ideas and personnel.  This will benefit Boris most - at least at first.  It's vital that Boris Johnson shows that the Conservatives' largest governing job in a decade is handled well.  The import of know-how from Team Bloomberg will help that task significantly.

The appointment of Ray Lewis as Deputy Mayor with responsibility for youth and opportunity.  Ray Lewis, brought first into the Conservative arena by Iain Duncan Smith, takes a very different approach to youth crime and opportunity than the Left.  Ray is a man who believes in tough love.  Melanie Phillips is a big fan, too.  Ray Lewis will oversee one hundred new Saturday clubs, aimed at helping young people off the conveyor belt to crime.

From 1st June there'll be an alcohol ban on London's buses and tubes.  In the week that cannabis rules were also toughened The Telegraph saw this as a defeat for social liberalism.  But an unlikely alliance of Bob Crowe and Guido Fawkes were unimpressed.  This won't be an easy policy to implement but in appointing the former BBC journalist Guto Harri as his communications chief, Boris will have first class advice on strategic presentation.