The traditional centre right press has probably been lost to the Tories. Forever.

By Tim Montgomerie
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Some think that newspapers don't matter much anymore. One of those people was once David Cameron. He was elected Tory leader without the support of a single traditional centre right newspaper. He stormed to victory over David Davis because TV's Tom Bradby and Nick Robinson - the long-serving political editors of ITN and the BBC - gave his 2005 speech to the Blackpool Conference such heady write ups. Number 10 do not disregard the press quite so much today. They still think broadcast is dominant but they know that newspapers have played an important part in creating discontent on the Right of politics. They've also understood that the newspapers are an important part of the media food chain. Broadcast journalists often take their lead from newspaper investigative reporting, exclusives and columnists. Readership of newspapers is declining but it's also changing. Some newspapers are investing heavily in digital and hope to prosper in a coming age when it will be hard to distinguish between the TV in your sitting room and the portable communications device in your ruck sack. In this age it will be hard to distinguish between a newspaper and broadcaster.

That, however, is for the future (albeit not-so-distant). The immediate future as far as Cameron is concerned is 2015. An endorsement from the five traditional centre-right-ish daily newspapers on the eve of election day would be useful but what he really needs them to do is to change gear soon, if not now. He needs them to stop attacking his administration over the next 18 to 24 months and start attacking Ed Miliband.

Looking back over the last few days Fleet Street has provided him with mixed signals. The newspapers have certainly increased their attacks on Labour. The Mail - after likening George Osborne to Margaret Thatcher- has unleashed both Max Hastings and Simon Heffer against Ed Miliband since Wednesday. Today's Times (£) has questioned whether Ed Miliband has any kind of economic plan. The Sun has noted the unpopularity of Ed Balls. The Express has, perhaps, been most positive of them all, choosing "Cheers! Budget Boost For Millions" as its Thursday frontpage. Overall, however, the newspapers remain suspicious of Cameron - and in the week that he largely surrendered on Leveson you can easily understand why. The Mail has ran repeated hard-hitting stories on what it sees as the Coalition's unfair policies towards stay-at-home parents. The Telegraph has run four successive front page stories worrying about the childcare policy, a "housing boom", the Coalition's "war on the countryside" and, today, further cuts to the police and armed forces (see side image).

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Five MPs support Conservative Grassroots - which meets at today's Spring Forum

By Paul Goodman
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They are Peter Bone, Douglas Carswell, John Glen, Anne McIntosh, and Bob Stewart.  The new group was formed in the aftermath of the same-sex marriage bill second reading vote.  The video above is introduced by my former constituency Chairman in Wycombe, Bob Woollard, who says that "it seems as though a cohort of moderniers have got the Prime Minister's ear and, frankly, I think it's time these modernisers packed their bags and went."  Here are some quotes from the MPs:

• Peter Bone: "The leadership seems to be disconnected with the grassroots."

• John Glen: "We must reconnect before the general election in two years time."

• Douglas Carswell: "It's fantastic that this initiative is being launched, and I'm fully behind an initiative that brings in and support our grassroots."

• Anne McIntosh: "We want to be as welcoming as we possibly can to represent all the views expressed in the Conservaive Party."

The film's talking heads place a very heavy stress on the same-sex marriage bill, confirming that by pushing the measure without a manifesto commitment - and in the absence of any substantial public pressure - the leadership made a major strategic blunder.  Voters may have forgotten about the issue by 2015, but many activists who opposed the measure won't have done.  And the party needs a strong presence on the ground.

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Yesterday's Conservative Policy Forum conference and the next manifesto. Verdict: Keep it snappy.

By Paul Goodman
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What should a manifesto be?  Should it be an impressionistic sketch - all ideals, values, and themes, but with little hard policy? Or should be a detailed blueprint - a mass of whirring policy wheels and cogs?  This was one of the questions that a panel of Mark Littlewood of the IEA; Paul Maynard, the MP for Blackpool North, and Sean Worth - the former senior Downing Street staffer who's now at Policy Exchange - and I grappled with yesterday.  We did so at the invitation and in the company of the Conservative Policy Forum, the Party body charged with helping to draw up the next manifesto, under the charge of Oliver Letwin.

About 80 party activists were there, including Dr Spencer Pitfield, its Director, and Fiona Hodgson, one its two Vice-Chairs and a force behind the CPF's revival.  The conference was, I would say, younger, less male and less white than is usually the case at party gatherings.  It looked rather southern-flavoured to me - but then again, we were meeting in Bristol.  Since the gathering contained a fair sprinkling of councillors, a lot of those present will have knocked on a lot of doors, and thus were well aware of the difference between having a policy that looks good on paper, and having one that will sell on the doorstep.  The panel's brief was to lead a discussion on the next Conservative manifesto.

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Cameron focuses on NHS at start of his "no turning back" Conference

By Tim Montgomerie
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Abortion: Day one of the Downing Street grid for party conference week did not have "abortion row" written on it but that's what Cameron has got. New Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has repeated his view that abortion should be restricted to a 12 week limit. This is what he has supported and voted for in the past. He has repeated that view in an interview with this morning's Times (£). The Today programme is leading on the issue this morning. I can hear the groaning from inside Number 10.

NHS: What Team Cameron wanted the media to be focused upon was Cameron's restatement of his commitment to the NHS. At a Tory Conference six years ago, Mr Cameron - seeking to emulate Tony Blair - suggested that his priorities were not three words but three letters: N-H-S. In opposition he erased Labour's advantage on the NHS. It was probably the Tory modernisers' single biggest political accomplishment. All that has sadly been reversed because of the NHS Bill controversy. In the start of a fightback Mr Cameron writes for the Daily Mail, restating his personal commitment to the health service's values and also promising a new £140 million fund to tackle the red tape that entangles nurses and doctors. The 'NHyes' campaign is about to be relaunched by the party.

Europe: Tory supporters wanting a more Eurosceptic party leadership in Birmingham look likely to be disappointed. The Foreign Secretary gives an interview to The Daily Telegraph in which he appears to downplay the possibility of a referendum on Britain's future relationship with the EU. He implies that the "fresh consent" referred to by David Cameron last week could easily mean a general election mandate. "I haven’t seen anything as Foreign Secretary that shows we should be leaving the European Union,” Mr Hague tells the newspaper. “I see many difficulties, I deal with hundreds of them every day but I support being in the single market …I remain a supporter of our membership of the EU.”

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Tory MPs shouldn't vote for more state funding of party politics

By Tim Montgomerie
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On Telegraph blogs yesterday Ben Brogan suggested that David Cameron might try to resurrect the boundary reforms by offering the Liberal Democrats a deal on party funding. This might, for example, involve extra state funding for political parties in return for a cap on big private and union giving. The Tory leader might have a double motivation for this. The latest Electoral Commission figures confirmed rumours that the Conservative Party is finding it much harder to raise funds. The steep decline in Tory membership is also a problem for Tory coffers.

I don't, however, think this is even a starter. Nick Clegg has been very clear that his party won't now support boundary reform. This is partly because of petulance at the Tory Lords rebellion but also because boundary reforms will hurt Lib Dem MPs. As many as five LIb Dem MPs may lose their seats because of changes to constituency boundaries. I doubt that Cameron could get Tory MPs to vote for more state funding of political parties either. The rebellion might not be as big as against the Lords Bill but I wouldn't be surprised if it was very substantial.

If Britain did embrace greater taxpayer subsidy of political parties it would probably introduce a per-vote-grant. This would mean, for example, that parties would get an annual sum for every vote they got at the previous election. If it was £1-per-vote the Tories would get £10,703,654 per year. If it was 50p-per-vote it would still be over £5 million. In a time of austerity are the British people going to support that? The other objection to this model is that it entrenches incumbency. It gives existing parties an advantage over new, insurgent parties. That's a barrier to entry that Conservatives should oppose. And who gets the money? Every party or those just with MPs? If it's every party then the BNP could get a big public subsidy.

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Osborne, May, Lansley, Hammond, Mitchell and Greening all suffer big losses in association membership

By Matthew Barrett
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Last week we reported on the decline in Lib Dem membership figures, which are down by 20% since the Coalition was formed. Notable amongst those findings was the fact that membership is falling fastest in seats held by Government ministers. ConservativeHome has now seen figures taken from association statements of accounts published by the Electoral Commission - provided by the Independent on Sunday's political correspondent, Matt Chorley - for membership in Conservative seats.

Although we don't have a full picture of all seats, or all Conservative-held seats, there is a sizeable number of seats' data, and some individual constituency figures worth noting.

The Cabinet members with the worst decline in membership are Andrew Lansley (-28%), Philip Hammond (-24%), Andrew Mitchell (-23%), and Theresa May (-20%). These figures are amongst the worst for all seats we have data for, although the five worst declines occurred in Stirling, Welwyn Hatfield, Thornbury and Yate, Bedford, and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. The decline of 37% in Welwyn Hatfield - Grant Shapps' seat -  is not great for a man tipped as a likely new Party Chairman.

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Spencer Pitfield is the new director of the Conservative Policy Forum

By Paul Goodman
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Mr Pitfield is the Conservative Spokesman for Sheffield and South Yorkshire, and contested the Sheffield Hallam seat against Nick Clegg in 2005.  He succeeds Natalie Elphicke as the CPC's voluntarty director.

He said:

"I am immensely honoured to be the new CPF Voluntary Director.  Since the CPF was launched in early 2011 by Oliver Letwin and Sayeeda Warsi fantastic progress has been made.  I would like to pay tribute to my predecessor Natalie Elphicke, who, together with Fiona Hodgson and our wonderful team of volunteer and professional colleagues have already achieved so much and I am looking forward to working with everyone as we build on this and take CPF forward."

Mr Pitfield writes that there are now over one hundred CPF policy groups meeting regularly across the country.

He can be contacted via drspencerpitfield@gmail.com or cpf@conservatives.com.  Please visit www.conservativepolicyforum.com to download the latest discussion brief.

The Lib Dems' weekend of free publicity begs the question: where is Conservative Spring Forum?

By Matthew Barrett
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Read today's political news and you get a clear sense that Liberal Democrats are dominating the political agenda. That is because their spring conference is being held this weekend. Although not entirely positive for them, the free publicity has allowed Lib Dems the chance to own the debate about taxation for the last few days.

For the first time since many Tories have been involved in politics, there was no Spring conference this year. Where has it gone? Paul Goodman reported in November last year that Spring Forum would be greatly reduced in size, and limited to, according to a CCHQ press release at the time "a one day event [that] will be focused on the issues concerning the Voluntary Party. The agenda will be designed to promote a conversation amongst senior volunteers, senior politicians and the professional party". That Spring meeting took place last Saturday. At the meeting, David Cameron gave a speech outlining his definition of a fairer Britain. Boris also launched his nine-point plan for London.

Neither event got the publicity they were due. The Independent covered David Cameron's speech, and called the event simply a "meeting of activists". This scaled-down format didn't allow the Conservatives to dominate the weekend, or even the day. In a crucial election year for Boris in London, and local councils across the country, a Spring Forum would have achieved much better coverage in the media, and sent activists home with a determined spirit for the coming months. Instead, one of only two events a year when activists from across the country come together has simply been axed.

CCHQ initiative on course to recruit 10,000 new members and £300,000 of extra annual income

By Tim Montgomerie
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Let's end the day with some good news... although judging from the uncharitable comments some readers left beneath this morning's Sayeeda Warsi post there are plenty of you out there who'll always find something negative to say.

ConHQ has launched a new service called Conservative Association Membership Services (CAMS). Although it's a slightly creepy name it's a useful innovation that will help Associations to manage their membership renewals. For a £4 levy per renewal CAMS will handle local parties' membership admin, allowing local parties to focus on campaigning rather than admin. Membership processing is not every Association's strong suit as a mystery shopper exercise proved last year.

CAMS has also been used to invite 192,000 lapsed members back into party membership. The 192,000 identified by CCHQ's Merlin software system were contacted in the middle of last week. The Thursday, Friday and Saturday post has already brought in 2,900 renewals. Of the 1,800 processed so far, new membership subs of £52,000 have been received and an additional £16,000 of donations have been made. A mail campaigns expert says that this rate of return will probably conclude with 10,000 renewals in total and renewals and donations of £300,000.

Co-Tory Chairman Lord Feldman told ConHome that Philip Dumville and Philip Smith of the Conservative Party Prize Draw (the proceeds from which exceed the contribution from any one single donor) deserve the credit for this initiative.

For those wanting more information about CAMS please email Mike.Dolley[AT]Conservatives.com.

Sayeeda Warsi and Andrew Feldman negotiate cut-price party conference deal

By Tim Montgomerie
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Above and below are clippings from the ConHome Party Conference newspaper.

Last year ConservativeHome's Party Conference newspaper highlighted the high cost of attending Tory Conference. Based on a survey of ConHome readers we calculated that the average attendee was spending £722 on conference. We and the many journalists who followed up on the story noted that these autumn conferences were no longer dominated by rank-and-file members but by journalists, NGOs and lobbyists. We revealed that barely a third of people registered for last year's gathering in Manchester were grassroots Tories. The end result was many empty seats during David Cameron's closing speech. That had never happened before.

It seems that the co-Chairman of our party, Baroness Warsi and Lord Feldman, were listening. In a Valentine's Day email they announce a cut-price conference deal for early birds who book their conference arrangements now.

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