thetorydiary

Tories 10% ahead in final survey of 2009

More in The Telegraph.

ComRes has Tories ahead by 38% to 29%

Within the poll there is evidence that the Conservatives still have work to do.  By 49% to 45% voters disagree with the statement that “the Conservative Party offers an appealing alternative to the Labour Party.”

There may also be a little mileage in the Labour attack that the Tories are the party of the rich.  By 52% to 44% voters agree , that “a Conservative Government would mainly represent the interests of the well-off rather than ordinary people.”

There is 55% to 38% support, however, for the Conservative policy of raising the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million. That will encourage George Osborne to stick with that pledge even though it won't appear in any early budget should he become Chancellor.

Tim Montgomerie

Tories heading for landslide victory according to updated ConHome Poll of Polls

Less than a month ago Ipsos MORI had the Tory lead down to 6%.

The ConHome Poll of Polls is now suggesting a Tory majority of over 80.

Most commentators expect a much closer election, however. On Radio 4's Week in Westminster Jackey Ashley, Benedict Brogan, Peter Oborne, Peter Riddell and Steve Richards all predicted a Tory majority of no more than thirty.

Tim Montgomerie

Tories 12% ahead in YouGov poll

The Tory lead was 9% last Sunday according to YouGov.  An Angus-Reid poll yesterday had the Tories 16% ahead.

The People's Nigel Nelson tweets that the poll for his paper has the Tories on 40%, Labour on 28% and the LibDems on just 18%.

Tim Montgomerie

Tories 16% ahead in new Angus-Reid/ PoliticalBetting survey

The numbers in the Angus-Reid poll for PoliticalBetting.com are the Conservatives unchanged at 40%; Labour up 1% on 24% and the Liberal Democrats up 1% on 20%.

The Goring opinion poll predictions for Christmas 2010

The ConHome/ ConIntelligence team has just finished a very long (and quite liquid) Christmas lunch at one of London's greatest hotels (The Goring). As the Port was passed around the table we made predictions as to where the two main parties might be by the time we have Christmas lunch next year. These were the results:

1. Bryony Fletcher: Con 39, Lab 34
2. Duncan Flynn: Con 36, Lab 38
3. Paul Goodman: Con 37, Lab 32
4. Jonathan Isaby: Con 36, Lab 34
5. Tim Montgomerie: Con 35, Lab 35
6. Harry Phibbs: Con 34, Lab 39

Stephan Shakespeare declined to take part!

Tim Montgomerie

Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guardian poll

According to a source inside The Guardian the Conservative lead in tomorrow's ICM poll is down by 2% (since the recent Sunday Telegraph/ ICM poll) to 9%.

This is in line with The Sunday Times' YouGov poll which also showed a surprising narrowing of the Conservative advantage.

I say "surprising" because I expected the negative press coverage to hurt Labour but the attack on bankers might be even more potent than expected.

Full numbers as soon as we get them.

Tim Montgomerie

The numbers are:

Comparisons are with the most recent ICM poll.

More on the Guardian website.

Jonathan Isaby

Two changes to ConHome's presentation of opinion polls

From today ConHome is making two changes to how we present opinion polls.

The first is presentationally small but we hope instructive. Every time a new opinion poll is published we offer a projection of the likely Tory majority that would emerge from the percentage numbers in the latest survey and also from our polls of polls. Saturday's YouGov poll with a 40% to 31% Tory lead, for example, was projected to produce a Tory majority of 2 according to UK Polling Report's swing calculator. Unusually the Poll of Polls also projected the same majority.

We no longer believe that that tells the full story. Our belief is that a 40% to 31% Tory lead would probably produce a much healthier Tory majority. The UK Polling Report calculator is based on a uniform national swing. It is right for UKPR to stick with the idea of a uniform swing but is such a swing likely?  We think not. We think there is going to be an unwind of anti-Tory tactical voting from previous elections and the emergence of anti-Labour tactical voting. We also expect the extra investment that CCHQ is putting into target seats will pay off. There are also suspicions that the core vote strategy being pursued by Brown will win him more support in heartland Labour constituencies but not among the aspirational swing voters of Middle England once so loved by New Labour. Some of these factors were analysed by academic Quentin Langley in a recent post for ConservativeHome's Platform.

Because it's difficult to know the potency of these factors we are not adjusting the UKPR projection number but we are adding a 'plus' sign to the graphic as a reminder to readers that the majority is likely to be larger. One pollster agreed that the majority could easily be 30 to 40 seats on a 9% Tory advantage.

The other change we are making is to the ConHome Poll of Polls. Up until now we have calculated a mean average of the most recent poll from each of the five biggest pollsters: ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI, Populus and YouGov. In this model a MORI poll from one month ago has, say, the same weight as a YouGov poll from one day ago. From now on we will average the five most recent polls as long as they are from those five market researchers or from Angus Reid (now polling for Political Betting) and BPIX (an occasional pollster for the Mail on Sunday). It may be that we will include two polls from, say, YouGov if they have provided two of the most recent five surveys.

The poll graphic below incorporates these changes. The ConHome Poll of Polls now includes BPIX's survey for the Mail on Sunday and Angus Reid's survey for PoliticalBetting.com. Under this refined system we are now projecting a Tory majority of 40+ (ie at least 40).

Tim Montgomerie

Tory lead soars to 17% again in new ComRes poll - but is down to 9% with YouGov - and is 11% in BPIX poll

Tomorrow's Independent on Sunday carries a new ComRes poll (carried out on Wednesday and Thursday) which hopefully marks the beginning of a return to double-digit leads for the party. The numbers are:

Comparisons are with the ComRes poll published two weeks ago.

Other key findings from the survey include:

• 70% disagree with the suggestion that David Cameron's Eton education makes it harder for him to be a good prime minister for the whole country (only 20% agree)
• 66% agree that the Government’s plans for heavier taxes on people with high incomes are fair (28% disagree)
• There is a 46%-46% split on whether married couples should be given tax breaks that are not available to unmarried couples 
• 34% agree that the Conservatives have the right ideas about how to get Britain out of recession (46% disagree)

7.45pm update: News tonight also of a new YouGov poll for the Sunday which has a different set of figures. They are:

9pm update:

The Mail on Sunday has a BPIX poll - for which 2,036 people were interviewed on Thursday and Friday - which has the following figures:

Conservatives - 41%
Labour - 30%
Lib Dems - 17%

UK Polling Report computes those numbers into a Conservative Commons majority of 38.

Jonathan Isaby

Fear of double dip recession is driving Labour towards March General Election

Voter confidence in the Darling-Brown economic team has been knocked downwards in the first test of public opinion since this Wednesday's PBR.

A ComRes poll for the Daily Politics programme found that Cameron and Osborne now enjoy a 7% lead over Labour in answer to the question, "Who do you most trust to steer Britain's economy through the current downturn?". They were 3% behind in April.

An Angus-Reid survey for PoliticalBetting.com of headline voting intentions - published yesterday - gave the Conservatives a 17% lead but it was largely conducted before Mr Darling had delivered his statement.

CCHQ is delighted at the terrible response to the PBR. Yesterday's dire newspaper coverage has been followed up by today's Economist which has made a strong attack on Gordon Brown's attempts at class war.

A wider opinion poll lead for the Conservatives will settle Team Cameron's nerves but they are still focusing on the possibility of a March election. Team Brown fear that the first quarter of 2010 may see Britain dip back into recession after the UK is expected to emerge from recession in 2009 Q4. The theory is that Christmas-related activity will produce an artificial boost this quarter but post-Christmas retrenchment and the imposition of new Labour taxes (including the VAT increase) will cause a depressed January and February. If Labour wait until May their election campaign might begin with the news that Britain is BACK in recession.

Tim Montgomerie

Tory lead 8% in new Populus poll which shows voters unenthused by Labour's class warfare

Tomorrow's Times carries a new Populus poll. The numbers are:

Comparisons are with the equivalent poll in early November.

According to UK Polling Report's swing calculator, this would leave the Conservatives 21 seats short of an overall majority in the Commons.

The poll, conducted over the weekend, also included a question about David Cameron's background in the light of Gordon Brown's attack last week:

Asked whether in view of his Eton education and his “privileged upbringing”, they thought his policies were aimed at “helping rich people, rather than the whole country”, just 34 per cent agreed, and 58 per cent disagreed.

Men and women disagreed almost equally, and unskilled manual workers disagreed by 51 to 39 per cent. The only groups that agreed were Labour voters (by 59 to 37 per cent) and 18 to 24-years-olds ( by 47 to 40 per cent).

Non-Labour voters disagreed by 65 to 29 per cent. There is no evidence that a class war attack will win back Labour defectors: opposition is even higher (78 against 22 per cent) among those who voted Labour in 2005 but now say they would back the Tories.

More detail from Peter Riddell in The Times.

Jonathan Isaby

ICM confirms trimming of Tory lead...

One other poll is expected this evening.

7.10pm: It's a YouGov poll:

The next key event in shaping voters' opinion will be Wednesday's pre-Budget report. Will Darling announce tough spending measures? Will he announce a windfall tax on bank profits? Will the public believe his promises? Can George Osborne match his outstanding performance from last year?

Tim Montgomerie

Cameron's rating starting turning down after he announced his new Europe policy

...suggests a new PoliticsHome survey of one thousand voters:

The downward trend in Mr Cameron's rating followed his announcement that a referendum would no longer be offered to the British people.

The Daily Mail launched a furious attack on Mr Cameron at the time - focusing not so much on the substance of the Europe issue but the [unfair] idea that he'd broken a promise.

David Cameron will be pleased with the coverage he won in today's edition of The Mail. The Mail has welcomed Mr Cameron's reiteration of his support for the married family. CCHQ's wooing of Paul Dacre may mean that the Conservative leadership will find a way of affording some kind of early recognition of marriage in the tax system. The Conservatives don't want to be accusing of breaking another key promise and upsetting the volcanic Mr Dacre twice.

Tim Montgomerie

Should Conservatives be worried about the opinion polls?

There is a softening of our support. We are now below 40% in most polls. I suspect the post-Lisbon policy was key. Less important was the substance of the issue (Europe). More important was the unfair perception that Cameron broke a promise (Trust). The Daily Mail hammered Cameron very hard on this. Cameron appears more like 'another politician' than he did before the new Europe policy.  Satisfaction among Tory members is markedly down.

There is no need to worry at this stage. We are still solidly ahead. Brown is still stuck in the 20s.  The fundamentals are also on our side. The Conservative Party has more money, more activists and a better campaign machine. And for the reasons outlined recently on Platform, the seat projection models may be overstating the mountain the party has to climb. It's perfectly possible that anti-Labour tactical voting will produce a much larger Cameron majority with a similar Tory lead than suggested by existing projection models.

There is plenty that should worry Labour in the months ahead. Higher VAT is about to come into force. Other taxes also need to rise.  Unemployment will continue to increase.

It would be wrong to blame George Osborne's austerity message for the softening as some party strategists are doing. The fact is is that we haven't been honest and open enough with voters.  We haven't told voters even 10% of an explanation of how we'll cure the deficit.  Fears have filled the vacuum.  Three-quarters of Tory members are expecting huge tax rises.  We don't need an exhaustive list of measures but we need more honesty on overall intentions.  I've called it a TV moment when Cameron looks into the camera and tells people very clearly how he'll cure the deficit.  We need to be honest about tax rises but time limit them as emergency measures.

I remain confident that Cameron is a significant electoral asset. He'll best Brown in the election campaign.  Time for a change is a potent slogan. What we are currently lacking are enough concrete reasons for people to vote Conservative.  We need to make a better case for how people will benefit from a Conservative government.  The balance isn't quite right at the moment.  There's too much 'new Toryism' and not enough on crime and immigration, for example.  The Tories should not wait until the General Election campaign to launch the manifesto but should launch it on Monday 4th January and use the following months to explain how life will be better with David Cameron in Downing Street.  Let The Sun, Mail, Express and internet do the negative stuff on Labour.

Tim Montgomerie

Tory lead down to 10% according to ComRes

The embargo was set for 10pm but The Independent has already published its new ComRes poll:

The projected Tory majority is now just four in the ConHome poll of polls.

I'll add some commentary later.

Tim Montgomerie

Tories 6% ahead in northern marginals

10pm: Tories 10% ahead nationwide:

***

It wasn't a good week for mainstream political commentary. Just one opinion poll by Ipsos-MORI sent Fleet Street's political reporters into a tizzy about the possibility of a hung parliament. As is increasingly true, the more sobre analysis came from the blogosphere - notably UK Polling Report, Mike Smithson and, of course, our own Stephan Shakespeare.

Today's local by-election results are a warning to all Tories that victory isn't in the bag but we need to avoid panic the next time there's a rogue poll. There'll be other such polls between now and the General Election but we should look at trends rather than individual polls - particularly when they come from a pollster with a track record of volatility.

During the week Angus-Reid - polling for PoliticalBetting - confirmed the overall opinion poll pattern that suggests a comfortable Tory majority. Another poll - tonight in The Telegraph - will provide further encouragement to the Conservatives:

"The YouGov opinion poll that we publish today is very encouraging for the Conservatives: it shows that the party leads Labour by 42 per cent to 36 per cent in northern marginal seats. Indeed, the Tories appear to be doing better in marginals than they are nationally: the results reveal a swing in these seats of eight per cent since the 2005 election, as opposed to 6.5 per cent nationally. But we suspect that, for David Cameron and his strategists, the most interesting statistic might be the only one that shows Labour ahead. Working-class voters in these seats favour Gordon Brown's party by a margin of 40 to 38 per cent. In other words, Labour's lead among its core voters in battleground seats has shrunk to only two points. That is tantalising indeed, for it suggests that Mr Cameron is close to replicating Margaret Thatcher's greatest electoral trick: poaching the votes of people who were previously regarded as the Labour faithful."

More at The Telegraph.

Tim Montgomerie

Scottish Tories stuck at 1997 levels of support

The very good news from the YouGov/Telegraph poll of Scotland is that support for independence is declining.  57% now oppose breaking up the UK and just 29% support doing so.

The much less good news is that the Scottish Tories remain stuck at 1997 levels of support (hat tip to Peter Hoskin for pointing that out). That's despite good work done by Annabel Goldie and other Tory MSPs in, for example, forcing the minority SNP government to put more money into policing and drug rehabilitation.

Over at the Wall Street Journal, Iain Martin is depressed about the Scottish Tories' performance:

"They’re getting absolutely nowhere, slowly. More than 12 years after they were wiped out in 1997, and 10 years since the launch of devolution (which they thought might enable them to rebuild) they are stuck down on 18%. The findings will trouble David Cameron, who has attempted to make great play of his Unionist credentials. But with a Labour government in trouble, and a fresh-faced Tory leader,  the best his Scottish wing can manage is 18%. Remember, in what will likely be a closely fought election campaign, every seat counts. For context: Thatcher secured 31% of the vote in Scotland in the 1979 election that brought her to power. Her party had 22 Scottish seats. Now it has one. On 18% it’ll be lucky to do any better than that."

My guess is that we might pick up a handful of extra seats but it is a great shame that draft plans to give the Scottish party independence from the rest of the Conservative Party were shelved when mooted in April 2007. A separate Scottish Unionist Party (we debated various names at the time) could have developed a more distinctly Scottish identity and its own policies.  It is clear that 'the Cameron effect' - so transformational in England and Wales - has not reached north of the border.

It's now too close to a General Election to revisit the 'CDU/CSU model' but I think it's still worth reviving before the next Holyrood elections.

Tim Montgomerie

Ipsos-Mori put Tory poll lead down to 6%

Last month's Ipsos-Mori poll saw a 7% jump in the Conservative rating and a 6% drop for the Lib Dems after their September poll showed a 13% Tory lead over the Lib Dems.

And this month's poll - to be published in tomorrow's Observer - sees more dramatic changes. The numbers are:

UK Polling Report's Swing Calculator computes these figures into a Hung Parliament where the Conservatives would be 38 seats short of an overall majority.

Jonathan Isaby

Tories 13% ahead in ICM poll

More in The Guardian.

Tories dip below 40% in ComRes poll as Labour fall back to 25% - and 71% of voters want a phased withdrawal of British combat forces in Afghanistan within the year

Further to the earlier news of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times, tomorrow's Independent on Sunday carries a new ComRes poll which puts the parties on the following standings:

Comparisons are with the end of October ComRes poll.

Com Res also asked three questions on Afghanistan, following the paper's call for withdrawal of British troops last weekend...

"I would support a phased withdrawal of British forces from Afghanistan, the aim being the end of combat operations within a year or so"
Agree - 71%
Disagree - 22%

"The threat of terrorism on British soil is increased by British forces remaining in Afghanistan"
Agree - 47% 
Disagree - 44%

"David Cameron would handle the issue of Afghanistan better than Gordon Brown has done"
Agree - 39%      
Disagree - 46%

...and one on The Sun's assault on Gordon Brown this week

"The Sun was unfair to Gordon Brown over his handwritten letter to the mother of Private Jamie Janes"
Agree - 60%
Disagree - 27%

Jonathan Isaby

YouGov has Tory lead still at 14%

Anthony Wells reports that YouGov have a poll in tomorrow's Sunday Times with the following numbers:

Comparisons are with the most recent YouGov poll.

> 7.30pm update: There is also a ComRes poll out tonight.

Jonathan Isaby

Labour's private polling says it could lose 220 of its MPs

The well-connected Jackie Ashley reveals the sensational fact in her Monday Guardian column:

"Some Labour people may think I'm sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory. As ministers look for jobs to keep themselves going after politics, a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible."

I can't imagine things getting that bad for Labour but gobsmacking nonetheless.

Tim Montgomerie

> Current state of parties.

Tory lead up one point to 14% in new YouGov poll conducted after it became clear Cameron would not hold a Lisbon referendum

Political Betting highlights the voting intention figures from a new YouGov poll for Channel 4 which centred on issues relating to Afghanistan. The headline finding in that respect is that 73% of people want troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan immediately.

On voting intention, the numbers are:

Comparisons are with the YouGov poll of earlier this week; the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator computes these numbers into a Conservative majority in the Commons of 92.

YouGov polled 1,021 people yesterday and today - once it was clear that David Cameron would not be hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

Jonathan Isaby

Latest YouGov poll puts Tory lead constant at 13%

The ever-eagle-eyed Anthony Wells as UK Polling Report has noted that the voting intention data from the latest YouGov poll for the Telegraph has not been published in the newspaper, but is available online at YouGov’s website.

The figures are:

Conservatives - 41% (+1)
Labour - 28% (+1)
Lib Dems - 16% (-3)

According to the UK Polling Report swing calculator, this would give David Cameron a Commons majority of 74.

Jonathan Isaby 

Heseltine warns of "mountain to climb" as new poll points to landslide Tory victory

The Tories have a very healthy 17% lead in an ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph. That would mean a 100+ majority if replicated at the General Election.

In an interview with Andrew Neil for BBC's Straight Talk Lord Heseltine (who just about rules out serving in a Cameron government) warns against complacency. Asked if he still thinks a hung parliament is likely the former Deputy Prime Minister replied:

"I think that David Cameron has done a fantastic job and he's now significantly ahead in the polls but what I know, and you certainly will know, and anyone interested in politics knows, is that in order to get an overall majority, David has got to have the biggest swing, with two exceptions, since the war.  The first is 1945 which is irrelevant because it was a ten year, and it was after the war, and all that, and the only other precedent big enough is Tony Blair's '97 election... I think that the odds on him winning are significant but the overall majority is a mountain to climb, and I think he's been absolutely right in making this point clear.  Now I think it's very unlikely we will see  a Labour Government, that I do believe. But then you come to another problem is that there are not many parties - I can think of some, one in Northern Ireland - that will form any sort of relationship with the Conservatives. So the Conservatives have got to win outright or be sufficiently the largest party, that there isn't a coalition against them and they face the House of Commons which of course will mean that a relatively short Parliament."

ICM also found that 53% of Britons do not want Tony Blair as EU President... but when did the EU or our own government ever take notice of what voters actually wanted regards Europe?

Tim Montgomerie