Forget the party conferences. Think instead about what will happen here if Israel bombs Iran

By Paul Goodman
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Cameron is worried that Israel may attack Iran...

I returned from Israel and Palestine recently, but in one sense didn't need to go.  For although much of the conversation there was about Iran's nuclear programme and Israeli military action, the most vivid news about it broke back in Britain.  The Daily Mail reported that John Sawers, the head of MI6, had made his own recent trip to Israel - to plead with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's Prime Minister, not to order a strike on Iran.  "David Cameron," the paper reported, "is understood to have become increasingly concerned at the rhetoric from the authorities in Israel, who have been threatening unilateral military action to halt Iran’s nuclear drive".

Unlike, say, the Times, the Mail isn't especially interested in security stories, and this fact plus the detail above suggests that the tale came from a political source.  The Mail also said that the prospect of an attack "has been discussed by the Government's national security council", before turning to the Netanyahu Government perhaps launching an attack "before the US presidential elections in November, while the leadership in Washington is in a state of limbo".  (The paper might have added, as a domestic detail, "possibly during the party conference season").

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William Hague announces new British Commonwealth embassies to head off expanding European diplomatic network

By Matthew Barrett
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Eurosceptics don't always have cause to celebrate. The story likely to annoy the Conservative backbenches at the moment is the proposed BAE/EADS merger, to which David Cameron appears to have consented (£), which Eurosceptics rightly fear will stop Britain from having a world class independent defence industry, and instead empower the French and Germans.

William Hague has good - exciting - news for those who despair. Tomorrow, he will announce the launch of a network of new embassies across the world which will be shared between British Commonwealth nations, and which will seek to head off the creeping influence of European Union diplomats.

The Foreign Secretary is in Canada, where he will sign a diplomatic agreement to open joint embassies with that country, and he also hopes Australia and New Zealand will join the initiative. It's no surprise Canada should be our closest diplomatic ally: Prime Minister Stephen Harper has defended and protected the motherland's interests before - over the Falklands for instance.

Mr Harper has a proud record of being Israel's strongest defender at the United Nations, so he will be entirely aware of the pernicious affect international bodies can have. He will, I have no doubt, share Mr Hague's suspicions about the European Union's fast-expanding diplomatic programme, the European External Action Service, which is setting up offices in America and elsewhere, and seeks to sideline Britain's position as a major diplomatic power.

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The seven government departments David Cameron should scrap at the next reshuffle

By Matthew Barrett
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At the last reshuffle, David Cameron did something quite unusual: he didn't change the name or purpose of any of his government's departments. During the Blair and Brown years, changes like these were rather common. People may remember the poor Department for Constitutional Affairs, or the old Department of Trade and Industry, or its successor, the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, which lasted for only two years.

At Mr Cameron's next reshuffle, he could consider changing tactic, and start reducing the number of government departments by merging those which have similar purposes. There are obvious spending benefits to be considered - by keeping some staff from one department, but not retaining those whose function is already performed at the newly merged department - and there are also good reasons for Parliament to want to reduce the number of departments. Many backbenchers complain about the over-mighty executive, and the ability it has to undermine backbenchers by appointing minor payroll jobs like Parliamentary Private Secretaries, as well as the obviously necessary Secretaries and Ministers of State. Reducing the number of these jobs would hand more power to Parliament. 

At the very least, there are some anomalous ministerial postings which could easily be dealt with. Why should the Minister with responsibility for Universities, for example, work at the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, and not Education?

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Lord Marland pulls out of a trade trip to Libya as the Mohammed film protests rage. But note how quiet Britain has been (fingers crossed)

By Paul Goodman
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The application of the Government's new Prevent policy, which draws clear distinctions between extremism and non-extremism, and the untangling of our engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan - two U.S marines were killed yesterday at the base where Prince Harry is stationed - have seen media coverage of Muslims in Britain wind down (and since most news by definition is bad news, such coverage as a rule is relentlessly negative).

This may be about to change.  The Financial Times (£) reports this morning that Lord Marland, the Trade Minister, has cancelled a planned visit to Libya in the wake of the horrible murder of the U.S Ambassador there.  The film about Mohammed that has caused convulsions worldwide follows a revisionist Channel 4 series about the origins of Islam, the launch of which was cancelled for security reasons.  And Baroness Cox is seeking to ban sharia courts or councils. She wants to introduce a bill which "would make it a criminal offence for any individual or group to pose as a proper legal court".

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William Hague caps off his busy summer in unapologetic fashion

By Peter Hoskin
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The life of a Foreign Secretary is no doubt always busy, but William Hague certainly does seem to have been busier than usual this summer. First he helped run the country in the Prime Minister’s and Deputy Prime Minister’s collective absence; then he was embroiled in the ongoing Julian Assange case; and now he’s giving interviews about it all. The Evening Standard features a particularly extensive conversation with him today, which I’ve filtered down into these five quick points:

Winning the popularity contest. “When I was leader of the party there were always polls showing I was the least popular,” observes Mr Hague, “Since I took no notice of these things I’ve become more popular. So I propose to go on taking no notice whatsoever.” I’ve pull this passage out not just because I like how he says that he takes “no notice whatsoever” of “these things” but also knows that his popularity has risen, but also because it’s startlingly true. Indeed, a recent YouGov poll found that Mr Hague was the most popular of six ministers — including Vince Cable — with voters. As with Iain Duncan Smith, this turnaround from the Tory wilderness years is quite astonishing.

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Cameron and Obama inch closer to intervention in Syria

By Matthew Barrett
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David Cameron has endorsed a warning by President Obama that the threat of chemical weapons being used in Syria would cause them to "revisit their approach so far", the Guardian reports today.

On Monday, Mr Obama said:

"We cannot have a situation where chemical or biological weapons are falling into the hands of the wrong people. We've been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is if we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilised."

The Guardian also notes the conversation between Cameron and President Hollande, in which a Downing Street spokesman said...

"The Prime Minister said that he and President Hollande were 100 per cent in agreement as they discussed political, humanitarian and military issues affecting the country and the wider region. They discussed how to build on the non-lethal support recently announced by the UK and agreed that France and the UK would work more closely to identify how they could bolster the opposition and help a potential transitional Syrian government after the inevitable fall of Assad."

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William Hague must continue to act reasonably over the Julian Assange affair

By Peter Hoskin
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You’ve got to slightly feel for William Hague this morning. Only a few days after he’s given the keys to the country, to look after it while David Cameron’s on holiday, a fiendishly tricky diplomatic row lands through the letterbox. The continued presence of Julian Assange in the Ecuadorian Embassy — shirking the serious rape allegations that await him in Sweden — is a stain on the national record of the country that is harbouring him, and could prove embarrassing for the United Kingdom too. But one misstep, and it might turn much worse than that.

Was Mr Hague’s decision to warn Ecuadorian diplomats that we might seize Mr Assange from within the embassy such a misstep? Even if so, you can certainly understand why he took it. The Foreign Secretary, we are told, did not mean for his warning to become public. It was intended less as a solid threat, and more as a quiet way of nudging the Ecuadorians into handing Mr Assange over before they took any rash decisions themselves. It was little more than a last ditch bid to make them see sense.

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Whoever is the next US president it'll be good news for Cameron

By Tim Montgomerie
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On the margins of the Olympics David Cameron has talked to US television about the up-and-coming presidential election. The British PM diplomatically declined to back Obama or Romney but his words about the current resident of the White House seemed margnally more positive. He described the Republican nominee, who he met last week, as “a very capable man.” On Obama, Cameron said “I admire him a huge amount and I enjoy working with him.” The Prime Minister continued:

“I will work with whoever the American people elect as your president, and I will be straight in there wanting to work with you because we’ve got so many things we need to do together.”

I'd argue that Cameron wins either way this November. If Obama wins, Cameron not only benefits from the continuation of a clearly healthy relationship but the mood music is an incumbent bucking the trend and getting re-elected despite difficult economic circumstances. On the other hand if Romney triumphs the world's most important economy is in the hands of someone who shares the Conservative leader's view of deficit reduction, free trade and labour market flexibility.

Intrade currently give Obama a 57.6% chance of being re-elected.

Cameron tells the House the British people should give "fresh consent" to a "fresh deal" with the EU

By Matthew Barrett
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David Cameron has just finished taking questions on his statement about his recent European Council summit meeting. There were 74 questions from backbenchers, and Cameron was in front of the House for 80 minutes. There was a full house (but few Lib Dems, and no Clegg), a good atmosphere, and big beasts (Obsorne, Hague, etc) in support. The whole business felt like an EU-centric PMQs.

The Prime Minister's prepared remarks outlined his defence of the British economy, and unwillingness for Britain to be dragged into any European banking union:

"[O]n the specific proposal of a banking union, I ensured that Britain will not be part of any common deposit guarantees or under the jurisdiction of any single European financial supervisor. I am very clear that British taxpayers will not be guaranteeing any Eurozone banks. And I am equally clear that we need proper supervision of our banks but British banks will be supervised by the Bank of England, not the ECB."

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Hague compares Syria to Bosnia. But a big British military intervention remains unlikely.

The Foreign Secretary said yesterday that British military intervention in Syria "can't be ruled out".  One would expect Mr Hague not to close down options - since he is cautious soul - but what followed can be read as more suggestive: he compared Syria to Bosnia, saying that the country "is looking more like Bosnia in the 1990s, being on the edge of a sectarian conflict in which neighbouring villages are attacking and killing each other. So I don't think we can rule anything out".

As the Times (£) points out in its report this morning, Bosnia eventually saw a  NATO bombing campaign of air strikes, the commitment of 12,000 British troops and the eventual installation of Paddy Ashdown as "the Viceroy of Bosnia" - or the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, as he was properly known.  So was the Foreign Secretary hinting that he is willing to see Britain play a major part in a similar venture, following the Coalition's military intervention in Libya?

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