Two in five Tory members back the Communications Data Bill - and a third oppose it

By Paul Goodman
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It would be an exaggeration to write that every Conservative born into the world alive is either a Little Authoritarian or a Little Libertarian.  But how much of one?  The result of our last monthly survey question about the Communications Data Bill (a.k.a the Snooper's Charter) may point towards an answer.

• 43 per cent of respondents agreed that "the Tory leadership should do all it can to enact the Communications Data Bill, even against the wishes of the Liberal Democrats".

• 34 per cent took the view that "the Communications Data Bill is an invasion of privacy and should not be made law."

• And 22 per cent believed that the Conservative leadership "should compromise with the Liberal Democrats to produce a version of the Bill that both sides can broadly agree with".

That last fifth of Tory respondents is quite a big slice of the whole, and is a reminder that all Conservatives don't come down on one side of the fence or the other.  Since compromise with our Coalition partner isn't always a popular option with party members, the figure indicates that a significant percentage of them find it hard to make their minds up about the bill.

However, the remaining three-quarters or so seem to have made their minds up.  And I think the results point towards a general truth - namely, that regardless of whether one agrees with them or not, libertarians make a lot of noise in proportion to their number.

Perhaps the Woolwich horror has had an impact on the figures.  However, the proportions certainly wouldn't justify any claim that Conservative members are lined up to support the bill: compromise is perhaps where the Home Office is heading in any event.  Over 700 Tory members responded to the survey - as did over 1400 readers in total.

Take ConservativeHome's June 2013 survey

By Peter Hoskin
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Should welfare be cut before defence?

Should the Communications Data Bill be enacted?

Should Samantha Cameron help shape government strategy?

These questions – as well as the usual ones, including our Cabinet rankings – are featured in ConHome's latest monthly survey. You can take the survey here.

Duncan Smith, Gove, Hague, Hammond and Grayling top the latest Cabinet league table

By Peter Hoskin
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Below is the Cabinet league table derived from our latest survey of Conservative party members. It’s rather traditional for IDS, Michael Gove and William Hague to be at the top – and for Nick Clegg, Vince Cable and Ed Davey to be at the bottom – so I’ll highlight three other things that stand out to my eyes:

• Theresa May has become markedly more popular since the survey we conducted at the end of last year. The intervening period, of course, featured her speech to the ConHome Victory 2015 conference, as well as some strong words on the ECHR and resistance to further spending cuts for her department. Another member of the “National Union of Ministers” – namely, Philip Hammond – has also performed well.
• Grant Shapps scores a meagre +12. The Tory chairmanship is still an uneasy role.    
• George Osborne has recovered some of the popularity he lost last year, perhaps as a result of a Budget that was considerably more stable than its predecessor. But he’s still outranked by Danny Alexander. Indeed, in the background figures, more Tory members (62.8%) are satisfied with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury than with the Chancellor (58.6).

Anyway, here’s the full table:

Just under 2,000 people responded to the survey, of whom over 900 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

Under one in seven party members want the Coalition to continue into 2015

By Paul Goodman
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And almost a third want it to end as soon as possible - some 30%, according to the latest ConservativeHome survey.

17.5% want it to end in 2014.  I'm interested to see that 37% want it to "stop shortly before the 2015 general election so the parties can set out their different plans".

That's my own view - although I think that David Cameron can prepare the way by loosening the Coalition from October 2014 onwards.

Just under 1850 people responded to the survey, of whom over 800 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

Boris remains the activists' favourite to succeed Cameron as Party leader

By Paul Goodman
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According to the latest ConservativeHome survey, the figures are:

• Boris Johnson: 30%

• Michael Gove: 17%

• David Davis: 16%

• William Hague: 16%

• Theresa May: 12%

• Philip Hammond: 6%

• Adam Afriyie: 2%

• George Osborne: 2%

The Davis support is hardcore.  When asked who should lead the Party into the next election, 14% of respondents name him. 15% plump for Boris.

But the overwhelming favourite to lead the Conservatives into the next election is...David Cameron, with over half the vote: 55% to be precise.

Apart from Davis and Boris, no other leading Tory gets out of single figures.  William Hague comes the closest, at just over 5%.

Just under 1850 people responded to the survey, of whom over 800 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

Almost half of Tory members believe Cameron will be Prime Minister after the next election

By Paul Goodman
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According to the latest ConservativeHome survey -

• 24% of believe that there will be a minority Conservative Government.

• 15% believe that there will be a Conservative majority.

• And 7% believe that there will be a second Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.

Add those figures up, and they suggest that Party members are more confident that David Cameron will return to Downing Street after 2015 than might have been imagined.

It's interesting to set them beside one of our survey's other main findings - that a third of Tory members want an electoral pact with UKIP for the 2015 general election.

• Conservative members are divided on whether the Coalition is good for the country. 47% say it is.  47% say it isn't.

• But they aren't divided at all over whether it's good for the Party.  They tend to think it isn't - by 71% to 23%.

Just under 1850 people responded to the survey, of whom over 800 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

A third of Conservative Party members want an electoral pact with UKIP in 2015

By Paul Goodman
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They divide a third, a third, and a third in our latest survey, issued last Friday morning, about whether to treat UKIP as a friend or enemy when the general election comes in 2015.

The question was

• 34% believe that the party should form a pact with UKIP for the poll.

• 33% believe that it shouldn't.

• And 33% want to wait and see.

Asked if they believed that such a pact will be formed for 2015, 10% of Tory member respondents said Yes, 53% said No and 37% said that the leadership will wait and see.

Understandably, the leadership's position is that there should be no pact with UKIP (or anyone else). So only a third of members are lined up behind it.

To write that this evidence suggests that there's a big gap between Downing Street's views and those of Party members would be an understatment.

Daniel Hannan has long urged a pact. So recently has Michael Fabricant. I'm opposed to one, though I've suggested a new "safe space" in which both parties' activists could meet.

Just under 1850 people responded to the survey, of whom over 800 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

How should the Conservatives deal with UKIP? Take ConHome's latest monthly survey to give your answer

By Peter Hoskin
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How SHOULD the Conservatives deal with UKIP?

How WILL the Conservatives deal with UKIP?

Answer these questions and more – including the latest Cabinet rankings – in ConservativeHome's latest monthly survey. Here is a link to the survey.

One in three Tory members think Cameron is the heir to Blair

By Paul Goodman
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The main results of our special poll on Cameron, Thatcher and the Conservatives are as follows:

On Cameron and Thatcher -

• 34% of Conservative Party member respondents agreed that Cameron is the heir to Blair - "The Government he leads is essentially content not to depart from the economic and social settlement that Blair's governments left behind them".

• 11% agreed that Cameron is the heir to Thatcher - "The Government he leads is attempting to follow the same economic and social path as the governments she led."

• 55% believe that Cameron is the heir to neither. "His Government is following its own path, which is significantly different in both economic and social matters from Blair's and Thatcher's."

On the party and Thatcher, and how it is most likely to be electorally successful -

• 46% of member respondents believe that it is most likely to be successful by moving on from the Thatcher era, because although what she did was right for her times, today's economic and social challenges require different responses.

• 43% believe that it is most likely to be successful by following the path she trod, because the approach she took and the policies she implemented are more likely to be successful than those of the present Government.

70.5% of member respondents believe that Ian Duncan Smith can correctly be described as a Thatcherite.  The only other Cabinet members who scored above 50% on the same measure were William Hague (63%) and Michael Gove (61%).  Owen Paterson scored 35%.  George Osborne got 34.5%.  Maria Miller came bottom of the Conservative Cabinet members in the Commons with 3.7%.

Duncan Smith also topped the poll when member respondents were asked which Cabinet member was closest to Lady Thatcher in outlook.  He was named by 22% of them.  Hague was second with 17% and Gove third with 14%.  Paterson was fourth with 10%.  Osborne scored 6%.

782 Conservative Party member respondents completed the survey.  The total number of respondents was over 1500.

Take part in our survey on the Conservative Party post-Thatcher

By Peter Hoskin
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Is David Cameron the heir to Thatcher, the heir to Blair... or neither?

Which Conservative Cabinet members can fairly be described as Thatcherites?

Should the Conservative Party follow the path that Margaret Thatcher trod?

These questions, and more, await you in our latest survey. Click here to take part.