Boris remains the activists' favourite to succeed Cameron as Party leader

By Paul Goodman
Follow Paul on Twitter.

According to the latest ConservativeHome survey, the figures are:

• Boris Johnson: 30%

• Michael Gove: 17%

• David Davis: 16%

• William Hague: 16%

• Theresa May: 12%

• Philip Hammond: 6%

• Adam Afriyie: 2%

• George Osborne: 2%

The Davis support is hardcore.  When asked who should lead the Party into the next election, 14% of respondents name him. 15% plump for Boris.

But the overwhelming favourite to lead the Conservatives into the next election is...David Cameron, with over half the vote: 55% to be precise.

Apart from Davis and Boris, no other leading Tory gets out of single figures.  William Hague comes the closest, at just over 5%.

Just under 1850 people responded to the survey, of whom over 800 were Conservative Party members. The figures above are taken from the latter's views.

PMQs: Miliband shows his strategic weakness

By Paul Goodman
Follow Paul on Twitter.

Ed Miliband could scarcely do otherwise than focus his questions on the bits of the Government's mid-term review that David Cameron didn't want to publish. And David Cameron could scarcely do other than answer that he had always intended to publish it anyway.  This ensured that today's Prime Minister's Questions was pantomime to such a degree that the Christmas season seemed still be stretching on.

None the less, I think the session cast just a little bit of light on the great debate about whether or not the result of the next election is already clear.  The three examples of allegedly broken promises that Milband cited related to the NHS, women, and "tax cuts for millionaires".  The first and third especially are Labour heartland concerns.  But the party's biggest strategic problem is voter lack of trust in it to manage the economy.  As usual, Miliband's questions had nothing to do with trying to solve this problem.

Continue reading "PMQs: Miliband shows his strategic weakness" »

Urrrggghhh! Arrrggghhh! An angel and the devil wrestle for Boris's soul

Devil: Come on, Boris, old bean.  This is your moment!  Cameron is unpopular.  You are popular - loved, idolised, adored: look at the Olympics.  The Party knows that he won't and can't win.  Just look at this morning's borrowing figures - benefit spending up, corporation tax receipts down: Osborne in crisis.  Get back in the Commons now!  Mount a coup!  Take over, call a general election and win!  Go for glory!

Boris: Ah...er...

Angel  :  Look, Boris, my old chumaroo, this is all a pyramid of inverted piffle.  First of all, being an MP and Mayor is one thing - though are you certain you'd find a by-election that suits? - but being Leader and Mayor is quite another.  There'd have to be a Mayoral by-election - in which case the media and some London Tories would round on you: adventurism, selfishness, abandoning the capital to Labour - you know the score.  Or else you'd have to try both jobs at once - and get the same reaction, but on a national scale.  This is madness, my friend, sheer madness.

Boris: ...Er...ah...

Devil: Bunkum and balderdash!  You can find a way of fudging it!  Look at the polls - the voters want you, and outside London too.  If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly!  Screw your courage to the sticking place!

Boris: ...Yah...um...

Angel  : Hang on for a minute.  Take this polls business.  One solitary poll - just one - put you marginally ahead in London and the regions.  But its headline finding put you level with Cameron. Another poll on the same day found you made no real difference.  ConservativeHome found that 18% of respondents want you to lead the Party into the next election.  49% want...Cameron!

Boris: ...Gosh...um...

Devil: That'll change when voters get a real choice: you or Miliband.  You can transform the mood and change the psychology.  Infirm of purpose!  Give me the daggers!

Boris: ...Er...Yikes!

 Angel : It won't change.  Cameron's problem isn't the current polls.  It's that he's stuffed without the boundary review.  He can't get seven points ahead of Labour, let alone ten points - and that's the kind of lead he needs to form a majority Government. And nor could you! You'd be taking over the wheel of the Flying Dutchman!

Boris: Cripes!...Er -

Devil:  - Let's tackle that head-on.  The boundary review problem will get no easier after an election.  So your bird in the band is worth two in the bush.  You can't afford to hang on.  There may be some other strong runner by 2015, or whenever the election takes place.  Hammond.  Greening.  An unknown!  By 2015 you could be yesterday's man!  They flee from me that sometimes did me seek, with naked foot stalking in my chamber...

Boris: ...Arrgghh...Urrgghh...

Angel : Go on then!  Just try it - and see what happens.  Do you really believe that even if you somehow find a seat, win a by-election, contrive a no-confidence vote in Cameron, and then win a leadership election that there would be no consequences?  Cameron, Osborne and many others would never, ever forgive you. The party's loyalties would split asunder.  Months of intense briefing of the most vile, no-holds-barred, personal kind!  And he who wields the knife, etcetera: remember Heseltine!

Boris: Urrrggghhh!...Arrrggghhh!

Well, dear reader, there you have it.  Those are the arguments either way.  I can't help thinking the angel has the better of them.

But we're talking Boris.  And with Boris, you never quite know what will happen next.  He is the great exception to every rule.  Indeed, I dreamed of him last night. His legs bestrid the ocean: his rear'd arm crested the world: his voice was propertied as all the tuned spheres, and that to friends; but when he meant to quail and shake the orb, he was as rattling thunder...

I'm back from holiday with a conclusion. Cameron's 2015 aim is to re-form the Coalition.

By Paul Goodman
^{Follow Paul on Twitter}

Returned from a fortnight on the Isle of Wight.  The isle is full of noises...

Here is the situation as I see it as the conference season comes into view.

• Miliband's vote is vulnerable...  The most striking opinion poll finding about the three main parties since 2010 is the collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote.  Some traditional LibDem voters are reflexively anti-Tory.  At the last election, Labour won 29% of the vote.  Its last five daily YouGov totals have been: 43%, 43%, 42%, 42% and 44%.  The only reasonable way of reading these totals is that, with the LibDems marooned at 10% or lower, Ed Miliband is scooping up a big chunk of those former anti-Tory LibDem voters.  On paper, these could account for Labour's entire poll gain since 2010.  In practice, this is unlikely to be the case: none the less, Mr Miliband has not yet gained a poll rating near anywhere near Blair's opposition maximum (53%) or Kinnock's (56%).  Labour is thus attracting fewer switchers from the Conservatives than his predecessors.  As Lord Ashcroft noted recently from his Corby polling, Mr Miliband's own poll standing is unimpressive, and the polling consensus suggests that voters prefer David Cameron as Prime Minister and don't trust the Miliband/Ed Balls team on the economy.  All in all, Labour's lead remains highly vulnerable.

Continue reading "I'm back from holiday with a conclusion. Cameron's 2015 aim is to re-form the Coalition." »

Another sign of Boris’s growing self-confidence

By Peter Hoskin
_{Follow Peter on Twitter}

He’s astonishing, really, Boris. After having the Olympic crowds chanting his name, it seems he’s now going to pull off another remarkable feat: court Rupert Murdoch, in full view of the public, at the Olympics. It’s being reported that the Australian tycoon and his wife are guests of the Mayor’s at the swimming on Friday.

Team BoJo have been quick to point out that it’s a long-standing invitation, and that other guests will be present. But it’s hard not to read this as another example of Boris’s intellectual self-confidence. He is already the politician who stood up for bankers and attacked the 50p rate. Now he is the politician who is willing to sit next to Mr Murdoch.

Boris’s friends and opponents will be watching keenly — because if he can pull this sort of thing off, and remain popular, what can’t he pull off? There are, of course, a thousand obstacles in the way of him becoming party leader. But, thanks to the latest ConservativeHome opinion poll, we already know that he is the grassroots’ choice to succeed David Cameron. The blond tide is swelling.

Continue reading "Another sign of Boris’s growing self-confidence" »

The buoyant popularity of William Hague

By Paul Goodman
Follow Paul on Twitter.

This being the holiday season - or the silly season if you prefer - the Sun has a frivolous item today.  For further details see above, or follow the link to the story, which declares:

"Brits give party leaders an end-of-year savaging today - branding David Cameron and Ed Miliband SNAKES and Nick Clegg a SHEEP. And a YouGov poll for The Sun shows the nation is so fed up with the trio that it thinks NONE of them ought to have a holiday."

And so on.  But if you are read a bit further, you will come across the following:

"Of the three main parties' top 18 figures at Westminster, Foreign Secretary William Hague is the ONLY ONE to win a net positive rating."

And, yes, there is a doleful-looking Hague at the bottom of the page, coming in none the less at plus 11 in response to the question: "Do you think the following are doing well or badly in their current jobs?"

Continue reading "The buoyant popularity of William Hague" »

George Osborne grows up

By Paul Goodman
Follow Paul on Twitter.

During the mid-1990s, George Osborne tried to enter journalism.  It didn't work out and his future was uncertain, but he got out of his difficulties.  He was taken on by the Conservative Research Department, before being promoted to work as a Special Adviser.

His Secretary of State, Douglas Hogg, was engulfed by the BSE crisis, and the Conservatives were destroyed in the 1997 election.

But Osborne got out of that one, becoming William Hague's Political Secretary.

Hague was humiliated in the 2001 election.

But Osborne got out of that one, too.  He became the MP for the safe Tory seat of Tatton.  (He was fortunate that the independent MP for the seat, Martin Bell, kept his promise not to stand again for a second term.) By the 2005 election, he was Shadow Chief Secretary in Michael Howard's Shadow Cabinet.

Howard lost the 2005 election.

Osborne got out of that one, too.  Soon after the election, he was appointed as Shadow Chancellor, a post he continued to hold under the leadership of the man whose leadership campaign he ran, David Cameron.  In so far as anyone was Cameron's Director of Strategy, it was Osborne.

Cameron failed to win the 2010 election outright.

And Osborne got out of that one, too.  Soon after the election, he was appointed as Chancellor.

Continue reading "George Osborne grows up" »

George Osborne's four laws of political success... as chosen by William Hague

By Tim Montgomerie
Follow Tim on Twitter.

George Osborne was Political Secretary to William Hague from 1997 to 2001. They have been close ever since with Osborne helping Mr Hague write jokes for his old News of the World column.

Last week the Chancellor celebrated his 40th birthday. Unfortunately ConservativeHome's invitation was lost in the post but we have learnt that William Hague gave the 'happy birthday speech' and set out what he described as George Osborne's four laws of political success.

1. Law one: Work out, ahead of anyone else, who will be the next leader, stick to them like glue and become indispensable. William Hague remembered how, shortly after he became Tory leader in 1997 this young man appeared in his office, started drafting speeches and before he knew it, a certain George Osborne appeared to be writing all of his speeches.
2. Law two: Don't just study your opponent's policies but get inside their minds by studing their deepest moral processes. Anyone who spends time discussing politics with George Osborne knows that he spends enormous energy examining the tactics of colleagues and opponents. One friend of Osborne recently noted that George Osborne had a high regard for John Bercow. Not for the Buckingham MP's beliefs or conduct in the Speaker's chair but quite simply because of his "genius plot" to succeed Michael Martin and the way he executed his plot with meticulous attention to the concerns of the MPs he needed to win over. A focus on character was certainly evident in George Osborne's tactics against Gordon Brown when they faced each other as Chancellor and Shadow Chancellor after 2005. Osborne decided that getting under Brown's skin and exposing his style of politics was as important as undermining his policies. By understanding how Brown operated the Tories were able to anticipate his premiership.
3. Law three: If you have to take a risk make it worthwhile. Osborne is more tactical than strategic but when he makes a big move it tends to really matter... running to become MP for Tatton when there was always a risk that Martin Bell might stand again... announcing the abolition of inheritance tax... appointing Lynton Crosby to run Boris Johnson's 2008 mayoral campaign...
4. Law four: Don't forget the first law, just because there are two others!

In his speech George Osborne joked that the most important reason for becoming Chancellor was to avoid going down in history as the man who was political strategist to William Hague.

Looking forward to 2018 and the Boris versus George fight for the Tory leadership

By Tim Montgomerie
Follow Tim on Twitter.

It is, of course, absurdly early to speculate but we're allowed a bit of fun ever so often, aren't we? In yesterday's Telegraph Benedict Brogan looked into the distance and to the battle to succeed David Cameron. If all goes well we're looking at 2017/2018 when Cameron stands down as Tory leader after seven or eight years at Number 10. The expectation is that the two leading contenders for the Tory crown will be George Osborne and Boris Johnson. Let's take a quick look at their strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities...

STRENGTHS

George:

• If the economy is restored to health he'll be the Chancellor that fixed the British economy
• David Cameron will probably give his friend unofficial backing in any leadership election
• He is currently seen - by grassroots Tories - as the most effective Cabinet minister and the Tory Right are warming to him as the government's tough man
• He has a loyal, impressive circle of ministerial and kitchen cabinet advisers including Philip Hammond, Greg Hands, Rupert Harrison and Matt Hancock
• Has a good relationship with the newspaper editors and leading Conservative commentators including Matthew d'Ancona, Daniel Finkelstein and James Forsyth are Osborne-ites

Boris:

• If he beats Ken Livingstone again he will be a proven winner and a proven winner in London - where Conservatives often stumble
• On crime, Europe, grammar schools and tax he voices the views of most grassroots Tories
• He has a formidable team of advisers including Lynton Crosby, Guto Harri, Anthony Browne and Edward Lister
• He's "Boris" - with a rock star image that transcends politics

Continue reading "Looking forward to 2018 and the Boris versus George fight for the Tory leadership" »