10pm LIVE BLOG CONTINUES HERE.
9.45pm: LibDems just keep their MEP in North East.
9.37pm: TORIES LIKELY TO TOP POLL IN WALES!
9.36pm: I've now opened a bottle of red wine - sharing it with Stephen Gilbert. Quality of blogging may now go downhill!
9.26pm: BBC graphic shows our likely Polish MEP partners (the Law & Justice Party) have gained 3 seats.
9.23pm: There is likely to be NO CHANGE in Eastern Region in terms of number of MEPs.
9.17pm: Labour look likely to be FIFTH in South East. KEY POINT: LABOUR IS FALLING FURTHER IN TRADITIONAL TORY AREAS THAN WE DID IN TRADITIONAL LABOUR AREAS AT OUR LOW POINT.
9.14pm: Nick Griffin says there's no need for him to represent minorities. Disgusting that this man is likely to be elected. Really shameful.
9.03pm: Labour set to come THIRD in Wales. Fourth MEP will be between us, Plaid or UKIP.
8.48pm: German exit polls:
- CDU 31.1%
- CSU 7.4%
- SPD 20.9%
- FDP 10.3-10.9%
- Die Linke 7.2-7.7%
- Greens 12-12.3%
8.34pm: Britain's most pro-EU newspaper (the FT) has launched an attack on the Conservatives' European policy.
8.32pm: George Osborne is now talking to Dan Hannan on my iPhone.
8.18pm: David Cameron has just arrived at CCHQ. Just been chatting to him about Friday's results. Can't say anything else!
8.14pm: Too early to be sure but it may be the LibDems NOT Labour who finish fourth tonight. The LibDems are REPORTEDLY neck and neck with UKIP in the North East and may lose their seat in the region.
8.10pm: BBC says turnout across Europe is about 43%.
8.07pm: Sweden's Pirates Party (want free downloads of music etc) will send two MEPs to the European Parliament.
8.02pm: Pizza and George Osborne have arrived at CCHQ.
7.49pm: Speaking to the BBC News Channel Nigel Farage has hinted that UKIP may get up to 20% tonight but, getting his excuses in early, says his vote would have been a lot higher if it hadn't been for the folded ballot paper problem.
7.49pm: The Guardian LiveBlog has started.
7.23pm: There are indications that Labour has come SIXTH in Cornwall, behind the Conservatives, UKIP, Lib Dems, Cornish nationals and Greens
7.15pm: CCHQ now confirming likelihood that Labour has lost only seat in South West.
7.07pm: Oh dear. BBC North West reporting that Nick Griffin likely to become MEP.
6.51pm: French exit poll:
- UMP 28.5% (Sarkozy's party)
- PS 17.5%
- Verts 14%
- Modem 9%
- FN 7%
- FrontG 6%
- NPA 5%
6.39pm: It looks like Libertas' leader Declan Ganley won't be going to Brussels:
- Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher – FF - 110,000
- Jim Higgins –FG - 108,000
- Marian Harkin –Ind. - 107,000
- Declan Ganley – Libertas -77,000
Thanks to Dan Hamilton for tipping me off.
6.32pm: Merkel down but still ahead in Germany.
6.30pm: Video of Brown's pre-emptive strike:
6.25pm: Nick Robinson offers five reasons why Brown is smiling. My move in the Swing-O-Meter is looking justified.
6pm: Some other bloggy ways to follow tonight's results:
- PoliticsHome's Green Box for updates from now on
- Listen to Iain Dale on PlayRadio
- Daniel Finkelstein has a rolling blog
- ConservativeFuture's Live blog from 10pm
- ConHome's Twitter feed
FIRST CALL: Labour to lose its only MEP in the South West. Indications from the South West point to a very bad night for Labour and a robust performance from UKIP. My non-CCHQ source tells me that the Greens may underperform expectations. The BNP will struggle to get 5% in the region.
***
We'll also start off this live blog with a third shift of the 'Staying or Going' swing-o-meter:
Nothing much has happened today to suggest that a coup is underway. With the exception of Charlie Falconer the anti-Browns remain, in Matt d'Ancona's memorable phrase, a behind-the-sofa government.
If I was drawing up a swing-o-meter for whether Brown would go before the next election (rather than imminently) I'd put the arrow slightly towards Brown going. He may survive this crisis but there'll be other triggers - eg the Norwich North by-election. The anti-Browns know they'll have to go to the country once they oust him and they're not ready yet but I think there's a better than evens chance that, in due course, they will install Alan Johnson.
Tim Montgomerie
