thetorydiary

Greg Clark supports new nuclear power stations to combat the "national emergency" on energy

As being reported by Sky News and others this morning, the Government is today going to give the green light to a set of new nuclear power stations, with planning laws to be changed in order to allow the Infrastructure Planning Commission to speed up the projects.

The Energy and Climate Change Secretary, Ed Miliband, is making a statement to the Commons on the issue this afternoon, yet - as ever - the contents of his statement have been widely briefed to the media and Mr Miliband himself has already been touring the TV and radio studios to talk about it.

His opposite number in the shadow cabinet, Greg Clark, appeared on Radio 4's Today programme to put the Conservative line on the matter, which was supportive of the new nuclear power stations being proposed:

"We have little alternative. This is a national emergency. We've got power cuts forecast for 2017 and I think it's right to clear away a fast track so that if we are going to have nuclear power stations they're not embroiled in the kind of multi-year planning applications we have see in the past."

Whether to have nuclear power was rightly a national decision, he said, but there should still be the possibility of local consultations on the sitings and appearance of the power stations.

He also voiced concern that a mere announcement by a minister did not give the decision any democratic legitimacy and called for MPs to be able to vote on the issue:

"We think that actually it should be voted on by MPs so that would give it a democratic legitimacy that would also help investors have a degree of certainty when it comes to judicial review... It does need to have democratic legitimacy, otherwise people I think will find this as an imposition they will rail against."

He also criticised the Government for being slow on the uptake on the issue:

"It is a national emergency and it's been left far too late. We've known for the last  ten years that most of our nuclear power fleet would come to the end of its planned life before it's possible to replace them so whatever happens with these statements, we've got a black hole."

I suspect party members will be strongly supportive of Greg Clark in backing the Government on this. The ConHome Grassroots Manifesto poll of members in the run-up to party conference showed 86% agreeing that "within the next few years the average voter will be much more worried about the cost and availability of energy than they'll be worried about climate change."

Jonathan Isaby

Labour's private polling says it could lose 220 of its MPs

The well-connected Jackie Ashley reveals the sensational fact in her Monday Guardian column:

"Some Labour people may think I'm sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory. As ministers look for jobs to keep themselves going after politics, a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible."

I can't imagine things getting that bad for Labour but gobsmacking nonetheless.

Tim Montgomerie

> Current state of parties.

Exactly a week ago ConHome broke the political story of the week...

Forgive the blowing of our own trumpet but our Europe story was right in the two fundamentals that there would no referendum on Lisbon and that instead of a wider referendum there would be a 'manifesto mandate' to renegotiate. We hat-tipped Nick Watt and Nick Robinson but it was the robustness of the ConHome story - and our detail - that set the news agenda for the following 36 hours.

It's our second big exclusive of the last year. We also got there first with the inside story on the Tories abandoning the pledge to match Labour on spending.

Alongside confidently calling London for Boris as the polls closed, revealing the A-list membership and announcing Brown's bottling of the 2007 election they are our most proud exclusives.

Support for the Cameron project grows among centre right columnists

Simon Heffer's loathing for David Cameron's politics is well known.  Two others are clearly in the irreconcilable camp. They prove their status again this morning with columns infused with anger:

• Gerald Warner in Scotland on Sunday reflects on the Tories' new Europe policy: "For an Heir of Blair this kind of betrayal is business as usual: if you take the Great Charlatan as your guru and template, then doing the reverse of what you promised to perform and selling out the national interest are lessons learned on page one of the manual. Cast-Iron Cameron's followers are Britain's Vichy Tories. That title was earned by his party's pathetic Scottish subsidiary when its Holyrood MSPs embraced the devolution settlement and left Scots Tories and Unionists swinging in the wind. The Vichy name now sits even more appropriately on the Cameron clique that has supinely endorsed a treaty that resigns the sovereignty and destiny of Britain pre-eminently into the hands of a German chancellor."
• Peter Hitchens in The Mail on Sunday: "Which is the real David Cameron? The one who talks mistily about the marriage bond and his love of country – or the ferocious backer of Ms Truss? And where has the Tory Party been this week, when the nation’s mature grown-ups have been longing for a clear, hard line against illegal drugs, whose unrestrained use is one of the main reasons that our society is broken? Mumbling into its sleeve, because Mr Cameron will not be frank about his own past, let alone condemn it, and presumably because too many of his own louche, moneyed circle are themselves corrupted by illegal drug use. Which is the real David Cameron? The one who pretends he can mend the broken society – or the one who gives comfort to those who broke it in the first place?"

The mean-spirited nature of these attacks tells reasonable readers more about the writers than the targets.

The centre right columnists most enthusiastic about David Cameron are Matthew d'Ancona, Daniel Finkelstein, Max Hastings, Peter Oborne (although sometimes unpredictably), Matthew Parris, William Rees-Mogg (markedly since his children became Tory candidates) and Bruce Anderson (the first Cameron cheerleader). Interestingly, three are at The Times.

Sympathetic are Benedict Brogan (although from a less ideological perspective), Janet Daley (particularly recently), James Forsyth, Martin Ivens, Charles Moore, Fraser Nelson and Amanda Platell.

More critical than sympathetic (but not unreasonable) are, I'd say, Stephen Glover, Dominic Lawson, Melanie Phillips (never nasty like Heffer and Hitchens) and Jeff Randall (he has become much more sympathetic in recent weeks).

Iain Martin is blogging away brilliantly at the WSJ but doesn't currently have a mainstream column. I'd mark him as sympathetic.

Overall - perhaps not unrelated to the Tories' improvement in the polls - support among the centre right commentariat is much healthier than when ConHome wrote about it in April 2006.

Tim Montgomerie

CCHQ gets ready for March 25th election as Brown continues scorched earth policy

Speculation is growing that Gordon Brown might go to the country earlier than expected, on 25th March next year.

In this morning's Yorkshire Post Tom Richmond notes one of the key factors that may influence Gordon Brown's choice: "The reason is simple. It would mean Labour having to put off the Budget until after polling day."

"Almost 200 senior party officials have been ordered not to take holidays after January," says The Sun: "Leader David Cameron wants all his top advisers at the party HQ to be available at a minute's notice - including policy, research and campaign team staff. Shadow ministers will also step up talks with senior civil servants, who will brief them on what to expect if they win."

One thing is certain - as Peter Oborne sets out in today's Mail - Brown is still pursuing a scorched earth policy:

"Gordon Brown now finds himself in a similar position to John Major. He, too, faces election defeat. But there is no sign of the magnanimity and sense of public duty shown by either Jim Callaghan or John Major. Very much the opposite: it now looks very much as if he has launched what some Whitehall officials describe a 'scorched-earth policy'.

Rather than do the right thing by Britain, he seems to want to make sure that David Cameron will face the worst possible inheritance if he wins the election next spring. For instance, Brown has been appointing Labour cronies to key posts. Recently, the job of High Commissioner to Australia became vacant. Instead of choosing a highranking Foreign Office diplomat for the post, Brown rewarded a failed Labour politician, Baroness Amos. Similarly, Lady Ashton (Labour's former leader in the Lords and a figure of little consequence) has been appointed to the vital post of trade commissioner in Europe. Narrow considerations of Labour Party control of the levers of power dictated these appointments and certainly not the national interest.

But Gordon Brown's most palpable act of political selfishness concerns his economic policy. Next year the national deficit is set to rise towards £200billion, a figure without precedent in our history..."

Peter Oborne is at his best today. Read him here.

Tim Montgomerie

Three lessons for Cameron from Obama's first year

On AmericaInTheWorld I've listed the worrying weaknesses at the heart of Barack Obama's foreign policy.

Earlier this week, on the International blog, I noted Tuesday's bad results for the Democrats.

As Britain's Conservatives look across the Atlantic, what political lessons can be learnt from Obama's first year? Three stand out.

Be focused: Tories are keen to avoid the mistake of Tony Blair in coasting through their early years in office and so will begin reforms immediately. Deficit reduction and education reform will be two top priorities. Dramatic reform of corporation tax is looking a more and more important theme (see paragraph six of this Telegraph piece by Irwin Stelzer). But if they will be bolder than early Blair they should be more focused than Obama. America's 44th President has tried to do too many big things too quickly and there is a growing sense that he hasn't done enough of them well. Think of the biggest stimulus in US history, healthcare reform, Afghanistan, cap and trade, banning nuclear weapons, battling Fox News, making peace with the Muslim world, and a hundred smaller initiatives...

Reach across the aisle: Barack Obama has lost a lot of support of independent voters. This is for a variety of reasons but partly because he has failed to build the support of moderate Republicans. His attempted recruitment of New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg failed after Gregg objected to the size of Obama's stimulus package. Bipartisanship can't be cosmetic.

Promote experience: The new members of the real West Wing sometimes give the impression that they think they are starring in TV's West Wing. Embassies and foreign governments talk of a chaotic White House staff that is too focused on politics. The people good at running a campaign are not necessarily the right people to run the White House/ Downing Street.

Tim Montgomerie

Cameron leadership "delighted" at smooth reception for Europe policy

The Tory leadership is delighted that the announcement of the new Europe policy has gone quite so smoothly. Team Cameron will be disappointed at the hostility of yesterday's Daily Mail but there has been no significant upset from within the parliamentary party or from The Sun or Telegraph. To a very large extent the party appears to have recovered its once secret weapon: Unity. And, as expected, The Guardian and other left-of-centre media are largely content that the party has downed its Eurosceptic weapons.

The party was more worried about voters seeing Cameron as untrustworthy, because of his referendum shift, than they were worried at the anger of Eurosceptics. A poll of more than one thousand voters by PoliticsHome will reassure them:

PoliticsHome find that 52% think that David Cameron's new Europe policy is a "fair adaptation of a policy to fit new circumstances." 42%, however see Cameron as having broken a promise. 77% of Conservative supporters back the Tory leader's new policy.

Channel 4's 'Fact Check' team have also concluded that Cameron has NOT broken a promise:

"Cameron has campaigned so vociferously for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty that it's easy to think he gave a "cast-iron guarantee" to put the Treaty to the vote no matter what. But when he used that now-famous phrase, he did appear to be talking about the Treaty pre-ratification, rather than undoing the signed-on-the-dotted line that will now become an EU-wide reality."

63% of voters still want a referendum - very similar to the 66% of Tory members wanting a referendum (according to ConHome's own survey).

The first opinion poll after Cameron's European announcement found the Tory lead slightly up at 14%.

Tim Montgomerie

Tory lead up one point to 14% in new YouGov poll conducted after it became clear Cameron would not hold a Lisbon referendum

Political Betting highlights the voting intention figures from a new YouGov poll for Channel 4 which centred on issues relating to Afghanistan. The headline finding in that respect is that 73% of people want troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan immediately.

On voting intention, the numbers are:

Comparisons are with the YouGov poll of earlier this week; the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator computes these numbers into a Conservative majority in the Commons of 92.

YouGov polled 1,021 people yesterday and today - once it was clear that David Cameron would not be hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

Jonathan Isaby

Alan Duncan cleared of breaching expenses rules

Sky News has the story - more to follow...

The Press Association reports:

Shadow prisons minister Alan Duncan has been cleared of wrongly claiming tens of thousands of pounds in mortgage interest payments on his second home. The Commons Standards and Privileges Committee said there was nothing in the Tory MP's mortgage arrangements that breached Commons rules. Mr Duncan referred the case to Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards John Lyon himself after it was reported he had claimed the mortgage on his designated second home, even though he had owned it outright for more than a decade.

In his report to the committee, Mr Lyon said that it was "entirely reasonable" of Mr Duncan to have taken out a £271,000 mortgage secured on his London home - which he had owned outright since 1991 - so that he could buy a property in his Rutland and Melton constituency. The commissioner said it was equally reasonable for him to claim the interest on the mortgage as it had been taken out solely for the purpose of purchasing the property in Rutland.

"The arrangement was relatively simple in that there was no other mortgage on the London home," he said. His mortgage interest costs were necessarily incurred to enable him to have a second home based in his constituency in order to fulfil his parliamentary duties."

You can read the report on the Standards and Privileges Committee website.

Jonathan Isaby

A thumbs-up from the Telegraph, but the Mail is scathing: a mixed response from Fleet Street to the new Tory European policy

Here's how Fleet Street has reacted to David Cameron's announcement of new Conservative policy on Europe yesterday...

The Daily Telegraph is extremely supportive of the measures announced by the Tory leader:

"David Cameron has had plenty of time to formulate a fall-back plan should the Lisbon Treaty be ratified before he could call a referendum, and he has used it well. The strategy he unveiled yesterday was both coherent and credible, robustly Eurosceptic in tone while wholly realistic in ambition. It may not assuage hardliners, but it is probably enough to placate the wider party."

The paper's chief political commentator, Benedict Brogan, says that the change of course over the Lisbon Treaty referendum was a painful and necessary part of the return of honesty in politics:

"Mr Cameron took a difficult but necessary step to restore our trust not in politics but politicians, by promising no more than he can deliver. To have gone further – including any sort of promise of a post-election referendum to strengthen his hand in negotiations with Europe – would have invited ridicule. Instead, we had a thought-through, realistic scheme for stopping the drift to ever greater European integration. And those holding out hope for a broader referendum over our relations with Europe will have noted his explicit desire to put them on a "more permanent footing". This policy will not satisfy everyone. But it has the merit of being genuinely Eurosceptic and – for once – achievable."

But the Daily Mail editorial is scathing, concluding that yesterday was "a very sad day for Britain, democracy and the Tory Party":

"The implications of David Cameron's retreat over Europe are as simple and devastating as that. The fact that he has behaved as cynically as New Labour on one of the great issues of today is a bitter disappointment to his admirers, including the Mail... Yesterday, the Tory leader's 'cast-iron guarantee' melted away like wax... Mr Cameron pledges only to put any future treaties to referendums, while saying he will introduce a 'Sovereignty Bill' to ensure the supremacy of UK laws. With our system of government at stake, this is pretty sorry stuff."

The paper's columnist Stephen Glover is equally critical:

"For all his Eurosceptic talk of the ever encroaching powers of the EU, he emerges from this decision as a depressingly conventional and timid politician, perhaps touched by that traditional Tory curse of defeatism, who shirks the kind of battle with our partners that Margaret Thatcher was sometimes prepared to undertake."

Triple whammy hits Cameron on Europe

1. Dan Hannan MEP has resigned from the frontbench in the European Parliament. On his website he explains why he still supports a referendum. He has told me that he is staying off the airwaves and adding nothing to his statement on his blog.

2. France's Europe Minister has described Conservative policy on Europe as "autistic"; "Speaking to The Guardian, the French Europe minister, Pierre Lellouche, describes as "pathetic" the Tories' EU plans announced today, warning that they will not succeed "for a minute"." Very helpful.

3. The Daily Mail is unhappy. There is no link but this promotion of its leader appears on the front page...

There are very good reasons to vote Conservative (but Europe isn't such a good one anymore)

I can't pretend I'm enthusiastic about what David Cameron has announced this afternoon. No referendum of any kind. Given that Lisbon is a self-amending Treaty, full of ratchet clauses, the promise of future referenda on transfers of power is a bit like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. There were no meaningful threats to Europe if there is no serious willingness from other EU leaders to renegotiate. If David Cameron had put a big Eurosceptic beast in charge of renegotiations - someone like John Redwood or David Davis - I would have been more reassured. But that did not happen either.

David Cameron gives every impression of wanting to kick the European issue into the long grass so that he can get on with other things. Those other things are incredibly important. They include Michael Gove's revolutionary schools reforms. Iain Duncan Smith's compassionate conservatism. Andrew Mitchell's reforms to overseas aid. George Osborne's ambition to cut corporation tax. Chris Grayling's plans to elect police chiefs. Dominic Grieve's mission to restore Britain's civil liberties. And, of course, the number one priority to reduce Gordon Brown's budget deficit. There is enough in all of the Conservative programme to make me enthusiastic about David Cameron becoming Prime Minister.  After today, however, I am far from convinced that Britain's relationship with Europe will be fundamentally different after five years of a Conservative government.

I've written a lot more along these lines at Comment is free.

Disappointed as I am, I'm going to take a vow of silence on Europe for the next few weeks. Getting rid of Labour and implementing all those other worthwhile policies must now take absolute precedence.

Tim Montgomerie

6.15pm: The Spectator's Fraser Nelson has reached similar conclusions: "The package [Cameron] laid out today will scare precisely no one in Brussels. William Hague’s ‘European Policy Committee’ sounds like the sound of an issue being kicked into the long grass."

The Conservative Party's new Europe policy

Live blog of David Cameron press conference from 4pm. Highlights, not verbatim.

• We cannot hold a referendum to stop Lisbon now that it has been ratified any more than we can stop the sun rising.
• The betrayal of voters on a referendum on Lisbon by Labour and the Liberal Democrats is akin to the expenses scandal for undermining public trust in politics.
• We will amend the 1972 European Treaty to give the British people a 'referendum lock' so that no further powers can be given away without their consent. This will be similar to what the Irish have.
• I don't think a "made up referendum" would achieve anything and wouldn't bare scrutiny. Our manifesto will give us the mandate we need. It would be a waste of time and money to have a referendum which would have no practical effect.
• A new United Kingdom Sovereignty Bill will be passed so that ultimate authority resides in Britain this is similar to what Germany already has.
• Parliament will have to approve any use of the Lisbon Treaty's ratchet clauses that can take more powers by stealth.
• We aim to renegotiate control of social and employment laws, the Charter of Fundamental Rights and criminal justice policy.
• William Hague is beginning detailed work on the complex negotiations that lie ahead.
• European integration must not be a one way street. We aim to establish the principle that powers can be returned to nation states as well as given up.
• I know that some people want us to go further but Britain is facing the most serious crisis in the public finances. Addressing that will be a Conservative government's top priority.
• I say to our European partners that we do not plan to sabotage the EU with these renegotiations but to put Britain's place in Europe on a proper basis that can command the confidence of the British people.
• People were told that they were joining a Common Market, but they joined a European Union. The new Conservative policy is a credible policy that voters who have been treated badly can believe in.

Here is a PDF of Cameron's remarks.

During questions Cameron says he will use accession negotiations and budget reviews to press his negotiating demands but rejects 'a six month war' over Europe in which he attempts to achieve everything all at once.

***
Before the press conference begins at 4pm I have just received briefings from Tory MPs who have just attended the special parliamentary meeting with David Cameron. This is what I have learnt:

• There'll be no referenda on Lisbon (we knew that), nor a referendum to achieve a mandate for a wider renegotiation (we suspected that and now know it for definite).
• If elected to government David Cameron will seek to repatriate powers on 'fundamental rights', social and employment law and on criminal justice policy. 
• There might be a referendum if Europe does not co-operate with renegotiations but no mechanisms were detailed as to how repatriations would be achieved.
• There will be a British Sovereignty Act to stop further transfer of powers and a promise to put all future Treaties to referenda will be enshrined in an amendment to the 1972 European Act.
• Apparently the Tory whips and key frontbenchers were coordinating applause for Cameron.

Cameron says Kelly reforms must be accepted in full at a PMQs noticeable for John Bercow's insistence that Brown stops the party political answers

TIM MONTGOMERIE'S VERDICT: A sobre PMQs because of the tragic death of five British servicemen in Afghanistan. Lots of questions from backbenchers as well as Cameron and Clegg on Afghanistan and they were overwhelmingly hostile to the campaign. An assertive John Bercow twice instructed the Prime Minister to avoid making partisan points but Brown still managed to repeatedly tease the Tory leader about his cast-iron Lisbon commitment. I think three Labour backbenchers asked about Tory councils. Linking David Cameron to the performance of Conservative councils must be a new Labour tactic. Cameron used PMQs to affirm his belief that Kelly must be implemented in full. The other two party leaders agreed. 

Highlights, not verbatim:

12.30pm Tory MP Ian Taylor urges Brown to listen to scientific advise and NOT "shoot the messenger". Mr Brown says that the Government will always listen to scientists but they must not issue conflicting advice.

12.28pm: Brown suggests that Cameron's "iron-cast" guarantees aren't worth much. On Monday Cameron made an "iron-cast" commitment to the NHS. Voters will have to decide what this means.

12.26pm: Gordon Brown agrees that reserved seats at PMQs for members of the armed forces would be a good thing.

12.24pm: Tory MP for Monmouth David Davies calls on the Prime Minister to publish more information on soldiers who are losing limbs and suffering serious injuries in Afghanistan.

12.15pm: Nick Clegg says mission in Afghanistan is in trouble because the government of the country is illegitimate and the international community has no clear plan.

12.12pm: David Blunkett asks the Prime Minister what he thinks of Cameron's cast-iron guarantee turning to plywood. The Speaker warns Brown to answer for Government business and Brown insists Labour promises will be reliable.

12.09pm: Cameron says Kelly must be accepted in full. MPs must not vote ever again on their pay and expenses. Brown agrees and calls for Kelly to be implemented quickly.

Tory MPs' wives consult lawyers after Kelly recommends ending their Commons employment

Christopher Kelly has launched his report and it contains few surprises. Nearly all Conservatives will, I suspect, welcome the proposal to abolish the Communications Allowance (already David Cameron's policy) and to allow MPs to retain outside paid interests.

We had confirmation that those within a one hour commute will not be allowed a second home and all MPs will have to rent from now on, ending the mortgage assistance scheme.

The one area of greatest controversy for the Conservative parliamentary party will be the issue of employing family members.  Kelly has recommended the ending of employment of all family members within five years but MPs' spouses are talking to lawyers in order to establish if this can be consistent with employment law.

Eve Burt (interviewed here), Suzy Gale and Sally Hammond have issued a press release insisting that their employment is defensible:

"We are a highly professional group of people, dedicated to serving our MP’s constituents.  Like other workers we have Contracts of Employment and we are paid to scales scrutinised and approved by the House authorities.  If anyone wishes to follow an “audit trail” our records of work are open and entirely transparent."

11.30am: Matthew Elliott of the TaxPayers' Alliance has called for the report to be implemented in full:

“Sir Christopher has produced a firm and fair set of proposals for reforming MPs’ expenses, which do justice to taxpayers’ concerns. These rules would allow Parliament to take the first step on the road to regaining public confidence. It is now essential that his recommendations are adopted by Parliament and the new expenses Authority immediately and in full. People will not stand for another fudge or any more obstructive behaviour. The Kelly Report is the way forward for Parliament, and it must not be watered down or cherry-picked in any way.”

Tim Montgomerie

David Davis urges Cameron to hold referendum on Europe within three months of coming to power

Up until now no big beast within the Conservative Party had stood up to demand some sort of new referendum pledge from David Cameron. That changes this morning with David Davis calling on the Tory leadership to hold a 'mandate referendum' even though the former Shadow Home Secretary agrees with Mr Cameron that there's no point in having a vote on the now ratified Lisbon Treaty.

Mr Davis - the man most trusted by the Tory grassroots to lead Britain's negotiations in Europe - makes his case in the Daily Mail:

"Referendums terrify the European Commission and the political elites who run Europe. They are clear statements of the popular will. They force issues to be stated in clear and unambiguous terms. They are impossible to ignore. That is why the European reaction to referendums is to make concessions. Look at the history. After Ireland's first rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, the European Council conceded legally binding protocols pledging to keep the treaty out of taxation policy, family and social issues (such as the right to life, abortion and euthanasia), and Ireland's traditional military neutrality. Denmark has obtained similar opt-outs after a referendum, and the defeat in the French and Dutch referendums led to the rewrite of the original European Constitution."

Mr Davis then goes on to list the range of powers that should be restored to Britain:

"The sort of things we might include are: recovering control over our criminal justice, asylum and immigration policies; a robust opt-out of the European Charter of Fundamental Rights; serious exemptions to the seemingly endless flood of European regulations which cost the UK economy billions of pounds each year; a recovery of our rights to negotiate on trade; exemption from European interference into trade in services and foreign direct investment rules; and an exemption from any restrictions on our foreign policy."

He calls for this 'mandate-to-negotiate referendum' to be "the first piece of legislation in the new parliament, and should be held within three months of the election."

ConHome's poll of grassroots members shows that most agree with David Davis. We found that two-thirds of Tory members want some sort of referendum.

Tim Montgomerie

Davis, Redwood and Howard more trusted than any frontbencher to spearhead renegotiations

2,056 Tory members voted yesterday in ConHome's special survey on the Conservative leadership's changing policy on Europe.

Although we won't know the detail of the new policy until 4pm when David Cameron holds an emergency press conference we do know that there will be no referendum on the now ratified Lisbon Treaty. The leadership enjoys the support of members in this judgment call but only narrowly, by 51% to 46%.

There is much more support (66%) for some sort of referendum but there is no appetite for a big internal debate on Europe.  71% of party members say Eurosceptic MPs should focus on helping Cameron win the General Election.

Perhaps the most interesting finding in the poll is the high level of support given to David Davis, John Redwood and Michael Howard as the MPs best-placed to lead any round-Europe renegotiations. Their Eurosceptic credentials probably are probably reassuring to a very Eurosceptic grassroots at a time when trust in the credentials of David Cameron, William Hague and every other frontbencher is somewhat strained.

Tim Montgomerie

Full results below:

A post-ratification referendum on Lisbon would be meaningless

6pm update:

William Hague has officially confirmed to Sky News that a Conservative Government would not hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. More here. David Cameron will be giving a news conference on the matter tomorrow afternoon at 4pm.

---

I never thought the day would come when I appeared on a radio discussion about Europe and that I would be the person chosen by the producer to be the voice of moderation.

I have been a staunch eurosceptic since I first started following politics in the late 1980s when Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister. I remember the day I was thrown out of a German class aged fourteen for arguing with the europhile teacher against her integrationist position.

And I fondly recall how I went to the summer conference of the youth wing of the French RPR party in 1998 and addressed an audience of 2,000 (in French) with my British Conservative vision of Europe (borrowing a phrase of John Redwood's in my assertion that "L'Europe est notre continent et pas notre pays").

Yet today I found myself in Simon Mayo's Radio 5 Live studio at the BBC arguing against Robert Oulds, a Conservative councillor and director of the Bruges Group, on the issue of the Lisbon Treaty.

Robert was arguing that it would be a failure of leadership on David Cameron's part not to give the country a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if he becomes Prime Minister next year. His position was virtually  theological in arguing that David Cameron made that "guarantee" in 2007 and that he simply has to follow through with it and hold a referendum.

Tim has already explained here the context of that guarantee and why, therefore, it is unfair to suggest that it should necessarily still stand. And earlier he cited the Spectator's James Forsyth who this morning provided an eloquent analogy which I reproduce again here :

Vaclav Klaus has signed the Lisbon Treaty

...so says the BBC's Laura Kuennsberg.

Latest YouGov poll puts Tory lead constant at 13%

The ever-eagle-eyed Anthony Wells as UK Polling Report has noted that the voting intention data from the latest YouGov poll for the Telegraph has not been published in the newspaper, but is available online at YouGov’s website.

The figures are:

Conservatives - 41% (+1)
Labour - 28% (+1)
Lib Dems - 16% (-3)

According to the UK Polling Report swing calculator, this would give David Cameron a Commons majority of 74.

Jonathan Isaby