Cameron returning to London after terrorist attack in Woolwich

By Harry Phibbs
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This afternoon a man died and two were injured after a machete attack in Woolwich. It is being treated as an act of terrorism. It is understood that the murder victim was a soldier at Woolwich barracks.

The BBC reports that the Home Secretary Theresa May "has summoned a meeting of the government's emergency response committee Cobra to assess the incident." She describes it as a "sickening and barbaric" attack.

The Mayor of London Boris Johnson described the attack as a "sickening deluded and unforgivable act of violence".

 The Prime Minister David Cameron is cutting short visit to Paris. He has described the killing as "truly shocking."

A Downing Street spokesman says:

"The Prime Minister has spoken to the Home Secretary, who he asked to chair COBR. He has been briefed on all developments of the Woolwich shooting. He will return to London tonight and will chair COBR in the morning."

Ten reasons why the Conservatives will win the next General Election

By Harry Phibbs
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There is an odd mood of defeatism in both the main political parties about their propsects at the next General Election. They can't both be right. Somebody has to win.

Here are ten factors which suggest a Conservative victory is the most likely outcome.

1. The issues.

Public opinion is going in the opposite direction to the Labour Party. The recent Joseph Rowntree study on attitudes to welfare is very much in line with other evidence.

I am told that a focus group "mood board", undertaken at the last election, asked what the Labour Party stood for. The group produced an image of a fat, lazy welfare recipient in a vest lounging on a sofa. If anything that perception of the Party will have deepened.

On other issues Conservatives are closer to the public than Labour. At the next election the Conservatives will be able to offer their own manifesto with tough popular policies - getting rid of the Human Rights Act for example - rather than being constrained by the coalition government. However there will also be plenty of achievements to point to.

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102 more free schools approved

By Harry Phibbs
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This morning sees another stage in the free schools revolution. 81 are already open. Another 109 were already approved to open, mostly due to start this September.  This morning we have news of a further 102, mostly to open next year.

When full, these free schools will have 130,000 pupils. That is getting to the sort of "critical mass" that would make it hard for the Labour Party to go into the next election with a policy of closing them or  emasculating them. The pupils don't have votes but their parents do - as well as their aunts and uncles. By the next election there will be hundreds more free schools scheduled. Many parents will be interested in the choice they offer.

Yet at the moment Labour councils, while complaining about a shortage of school places, tend to use every trick in the book to obstruct free schools.

The Mayor of London Boris Johnson wrote about this in the Evening Standard yesterday:

I have seen with my own eyes how groups of parents and others are now setting up schools that have a universal admissions policy — but a distinctive ethos of achievement and ambition. I have visited schools with smartly uniformed children, and bright, clean buildings, where there is an obvious culture of discipline and respect, combined with a love of learning, sport and the arts.

The majority of these schools are being set up in areas with a severe shortage of places, and nine out of 10 Free Schools are now oversubscribed. Surely to goodness it is obvious that these schools are a good thing and that we need more of them? What is not to like?

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David Cameron gives relaxed performance on Today programme

By Harry Phibbs
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David Cameron was interviewed on the Today programme this morning by James Naughtie. He said the coalition would last the course until 2015 and that there were "big, bold reforms" to come. He also said that the date of the in/out EU referendum, in 2017, would not be changed. Nor would there be more than one referendum.

He said:

“Let me say, this policy, it doesn’t matter the pressure I come under from outside the Conservative party, or in Europe, or inside the Conservative party, this policy isn’t going to change."

However the important thing about the interview was not what he said but the way he said it. He sounded steady, calm, reasonable. Genuinely relaxed. Indeed Mr Naughtie seized on this - wasn't our Prime Minister "too relaxed." Better to be criticised for that than for sounding rattled.

Mr Cameron avoided being petulent or insulting to supporters of UKIP or opponents of gay marriage. However he also explaining powerfully why he did feel the issue mattered:

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Getting to know U-KIP 3) What are UKIP’s policies?

By Peter Hoskin
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Policies? What policies?! That used to be the cry when UKIP were less a political party and more a pressure group for our departure from Europe. But such scoffs and sneers are, if not entirely unwarranted, certainly less relevant nowadays. The party’s website provides a fairly clear list, split in to several sections, of their thinking on defence, on welfare, on energy, and most of the other areas where governments actually ought to do a spot of governing. There are gaps to mind – some hastily covered over with promises of reviews to come – but what party outside of government couldn’t say the same, two years away from a general election? Indeed, if you compare the UKIP website with, say, Labour’s, it offers a firmer sense of ideology and of policy. Can we even be sure that Ed Miliband’s policy on Europe won’t change before 2015? We can be sure that Nigel Farage’s won’t, and of more besides.          

The Big E

While Europe may not represent the sum total of UKIP’s aspirations, let’s start this five-point distillation of their policies on the Continent, as it were. After all, leaving Europe’s political union is not just the totem they bow before, it also provides the basis for many of their other policies. It’s all about freedom, you see. Apparently, once we’re free from what Mr Farage would no doubt describe as the “shackles” of the Brussels bastille, then so many other opportunities would present themselves; whether it’s opportunities to cut taxes, to severely reduce immigration, or to trade with the rest of the world.

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Three ways for Cameron to get back on the front foot - and stay there

By Paul Goodman
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Here are three measures that, if implemented -

• Will help to quell the charge that the Party is being led by a "Chumocracy" unrepresentative of its MPs and members.

• Will stop David Cameron being ambushed by Conservative backbenchers on EU policy, as he was by John Baron's amendment to the Queen's Speech.

• Will thus prevent these two problems from inter-acting with each other to suggest that the Party is divided.  (If a perception of division persists, victory in 2015 will certainly be impossible.)

They are as follows:

• The Prime Minister should create an Inner Cabinet - to build collective Party leadership and kill the Downing Street chumocracy charge.  As I've previously explained, the Cabinet is too big: 32 people are entitled to attend it.  And the Quad, at only two people, is too small (besides, two of its members are Liberal Democrats - giving the junior Coalition partner equal representation at the top, a cause of Tory resentment).  The Prime Minister needs a Conservative Inner Cabinet which meets weekly to shape policy and make decisions.  Attendance should be formal and collegiate, with the following membership: the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary, the Leader of the House, the Chief Whip and the Party Chairman.  Obviously, the right people are needed to fill those posts - but that's a matter for another day.  What matters is that membership of the Inner Cabinet should be strictly related to Ministerial and Party function, and that it should consist of senior politicians only.

• The standing, morale and effectiveness of the Whips Office should be raised by it becoming a vehicle for promotion - not sacking.  The natural complement to an Inner Cabinet - and thus proper collective leadership - is a Whips Office with real authority.  That able MPs such as Dominic Raab, Ben Wallace and Rob Wilson turned posts in it down at the last resuffle, as was reportedly the case, is a sign that something is wrong.  Perhaps there was a connection with the fact that several Whips simply left the office at the same time: James Duddridge, Brooks Newmark, Shailesh Vara, Bill Wiggin.  There are always special circumstances, but the status of the Whips Office was not raised by so many of its members failing to move on to Ministerial posts.  Cameron will also need a new Chief Whip, since Sir George Young - loyal trooper that he is - only returned to the Cabinet to help the Prime Minister out.  Again, who his replacement should be is a matter for another day.  Enough for today to point out that improving the standing and effectiveness of the Whips Office must be a priority.

• The Prime Minister can't cure his EU problem until he grips it.  As a wise old hand put it to me, Cameron mistook his EU referendum speech for a process.  He hoped by offering his Party an In-Out referendum to halt internal Party debate on Europe - at least for a while.  The gambit failed.  And it won't succeed while his stance on the repatriation of powers is unresolved.  The lesson of last week is that if the Prime Minister hopes that the Government's review of EU competences and the Party's own manifesto formation will quiet discussion of renegotiation policy within his Party until 2014, he is mistaken.  Two courses of action are open to him.  The first is to make it clear that he favours a minimal repatriation of power after 2015 - social and employment policy plus protection for the City, perhaps.  The second is to put Conservative policy-making on renegotiation in the hands of his Party - the 1922 Committee, the Conservative Policy Forum, and so on - and accept that what would emerge would be, most likely, "Common Market or Out".

Having been in the Commons for the best part of ten years, I appreciate that logic isn't everything in politics: sometimes, even often, there's a role for fudge.  But a lesson of so much that's happened to Cameron on EU policy - from the dropping of the Lisbon referendum commitment in opposition to the EU referendum revolt last week - is that by consistently seeking to put off making decisions on the EU issue, the Prime Minister has merely stored up trouble for himself later.

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The Tory leadership is betting the house on house prices – it might not end well

By Peter Hoskin
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Strolling through Brixton a couple of weeks ago, it wasn’t so much the new, half-finished block of flats that caught my eye as the way those flats were being promoted. A sign had been pinned onto the boarding outside, highlighting the bare facts of the Government’s new Help to Buy scheme: “5% Buyer’s Deposit, 20% Government Loan, 75% Mortgage.” And then, underneath that, the words “Don’t Miss Out”.

For those in No.11, it’s probably the happy housing equivalent of those “Cheers to the Chancellor” signs appearing outside pubs to mark the fall in beer duty: homebuyers can have one on George, and don’t you forget it when the next election comes around. But, to my eyes, it’s all rather worrying. The two-part Help to Buy scheme announced in the Budget – £3.5 billion’s worth of government loans for people buying newly-built homes, and £12 billion’s worth of underwriting for mortgages – contains plenty to fear.

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"I am proud of what you do" – David Cameron's message to party activists

Here's the text of the email that David Cameron sent to Conservative activists last night, following the "swivel-eyed" row:

After the news this weekend, I wanted to write a personal note to members of our Party.

I’ve been a member of the Conservative Party for 25 years. Some time after I joined I became Chairman of my local branch and was one of the volunteers dedicated to getting Conservatives elected to the local council. Since then I have met thousands and thousands of party members. We’ve pounded the pavements together, canvassed together and sat in make-shift campaign headquarters together, from village halls to front rooms. We have been together through good times and bad. This is more than a working relationship; it is a deep and lasting friendship.

Ours is a companionship underpinned by what we believe: that everyone should be able to get on in life if they’re willing to work hard; that we look after those who cannot help themselves; that it’s family and community and country that matter; that a dose of common sense is worth more than a ton of dry political theory; that Britain is a great and proud nation that can be greater still.

That’s why I am proud to lead this party. I am proud of what you do. And I would never have those around me who sneered or through otherwise. We are a team, from the parish council to the local association to Parliament, and I never forget it.

Does that mean we will agree on everything? Of course not. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church – one which contains different views and opinions – and we must remain so today. But there is also much we must do together. We can shout from the roof-tops about how far we’ve already some. The deficit has been cut by a third. We’ve seen 1.25 million new jobs created in our private sector. 24 million working people have had their income tax cut.

And we can be clear about where we are going, too. We are engaged in a great fight to rebalance our economy, to bring excellence back to our schools, to fix the welfare system. And yes, we have a policy on Europe that is right for our country. Amid all the debate, remember this: it is our party that has committed to an in-out referendum on Europe by the end of 2017. Not Labour, not the Liberal Democrats, but the Conservatives who are committed to giving the British people their say.

So to those reading this, here is my message: there will always be criticism from the sidelines. But we must remember what this Party has always been about: acting in the national interest. Our task today is to clear up Labour’s mess and make Britain stand tall again.

We have a job to do for our country – and we must do it together.

Getting to know U-KIP 2) How do UKIP campaign?

By Mark Wallace
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It is easy to blame the media for UKIP's recent run of success. "Of course they did well, Farage is on TV and in the papers all the time", runs the common narrative. Such an explanation may be widespread but it is not altogether accurate.

Certainly their high media profile contributed greatly to their showing in the local elections and the South Shields by-election a couple of weeks ago. But they did not enjoy so much time in the spotlight during the by-election campaigns in Corby, Rotherham, Middlesbrough or Eastleigh, and yet did well at each all the same.

In fact, it was their surprise success in those battles which forced the media - and swing voters - to take them into consideration. Their campaign machine has bought them airtime - which establishes a feedback loop. More votes means more coverage means more votes and so on.

So how do they do it?

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The same-sex marriage bill. Bad when it started. Just as bad now. It should be opposed today.

By Paul Goodman
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No political party should alter a bedrock institution without the following conditions applying - especially if it is the Conservative Party.  A sizeable campaign to change that institution should be in place: in other words, there should be real evidence of public pressure.  The Party should then discuss and debate the matter internally.  If the Party then decides on change, if should say so unambiguously in its general election manifesto.  If it doesn't win the election, but enters into Coalition, any commitment to effect that change should be written into the consequent Coalition Agreement.  Ideally, any bill enacting the change should be preceded by a Green Paper in which any  problematic consequences of the bill could be aired, and solutions thereby sought.  Such solutions could then be written into the bill, or tacked on to it by amendments.  Finally, the bill should be subject to a geniunely free vote.

Not a single one of these conditions apply to the same-sex marriage bill, on which MPs will vote this evening.

No campaign for same-sex marriage preceded the bill.  (Although Stonewall has consistently favoured same-sex marriage, it didn't launch a big campaign for it - at least partly because it thought the Government wouldn't concede it.)  There was no discussion within the Conservative Party, especially at local level.  There was no manifesto commitment.  There was no Coalition Agreement undertaking.  There was no Green Paper.  There have been no significant amendments - other than Labour's on equal civil partnerships.  And there has been no free vote, at least at when it comes to members of the Executive: it has been made very clear to Ministers which lobby the Prime Minister wants them to go into.  For these reasons alone, Tory backbenchers should vote against the bill at Third Reading this evening.  The way in which it has been introduced and championed has broken every rule of good government and party management.

The Loongate row is still reverberating in the Party, especially at local Association level.  The key point about it is that too many Conservatives, from the Cabinet table to the grassroots, believe that the controversial words are what is thought and said of them in Downing Street. No measure has done more to buttress that impression than the same-sex marriage bill - which has been imposed on the Party with such absolutism, and which is the cause of such a bitter culture war.  Many older people especially see the measure as a deliberate assault on their values: the bill might thus almost have been designed as a recruiting-sergeant for UKIP.  For this reason alone, Tory MPs should vote against the bill this evening in good heart.  They will certainly grasp that Ministers haven't a clue what the courts will do when they get to work on Equality Act challenges, and that the bill is consequently a threat to religious freedom.