tenthings

Australian Prime Minister John Howard

(1) A four times winner: John Howard is one of the most successful conservative leaders in the world.  Written off fifteen years ago as an unsuccessful ex-leader of Australia’s Liberal Party he became his party leader again in 1995 and has now been Australian Prime Minister for ten successive years. Australian elections are held at least every three years and he recently announced that he will be seeking a fifth term, denying his long-serving heir apparent and Finance Minister, Peter Costello, an early chance of succeeding him.  The Costello-Howard relationship may sound like the TB-GBs but John Howard has the popularity within and outside his party to resist the pretender to his crown.

A short history of the A-list

(1) CCHQ are due to send out another set of letters today - telling candidates whether or not they have got on to the A-list.  There will be delight in some houses and disappointment in many others.  The delight won't be as great, nor the disappointment as deep, however, as greeted the first set of A-list letters.  At the time of the list's launch there was a common - if misplaced - expectation that A-list status was a fast-track to a decent seat.  Although it's still relatively early days for what CCHQ calls the Priority List, membership is no longer regarded so highly... This ten point briefing overviews the list's short history.

(2) David Cameron talked of introducing an A-list when he was running for the Tory leadership although the talk did not feature very prominently.  The idea of such a 50/50 list never appealed to Tory activists from the start, however.  A ConservativeHome poll found that only 35% supported it.  71% of Tory members, in contrast, wanted more local candidates in the most marginal seats.  A subsequent analysis - by David Burrowes MP - of the seats where the Tory swing was double the national average appeared to confirm the instincts of Tory activists.  Local people who were selected early appeared to be the biggest vote gatherers, David Burrowes concluded.

Tax cuts then and now

William Norton authors this ten point briefing on tax policy.

(1) The share of British output absorbed by the state is increasing.  In 2004/5 current tax receipts by the Exchequer were 38.3% of Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”, the market value of goods and services produced by a country).  This is forecast to rise to 41.0% by 2008/9, and stay there for the foreseeable future.  (Budget 2006, Table C9 page 266).  By way of comparison, in 1978/79 tax receipts represented 40.2% and in 1996/97 37.0% of GDP (Budget 2006, Table C25, page 286).  It could be said, then, that in fiscal terms the Gordon Brown years at the Treasury have returned the UK to where it was before Margaret Thatcher came to power.  Attention is returning to the old battles of the 1970s to see what, if anything, they can contribute to the current debate.

(2) 1970s/1980s Conservatives argued for the reduction of the tax burden on a mixture of grounds:

• moral (people should keep the lion’s share of their own money);
• practical (there is no need for a high tax burden to fund socialism since socialism does not work); and
• commercial (private enterprise is more productive than state control, and lower taxation provides an incentive for private enterprise).

During her time as Leader of the Opposition, and later as Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher appeared to regard free enterprise and freedom as synonymous (for example, more or less at random: Speech to the Institute of Socio-Economic Studies, 15th September 1975).  This was really a debate about “fairness” and equality versus “efficiency” and growth.

Localism

William Norton authors this ten point briefing on localism and decentralisation.

(1) Britain has a highly-centralised political culture. The state spends 41% of gross domestic product (tax year 2003/4), and this is distributed in a top-down manner from Whitehall, with local authorities only raising about 25% of their revenues from local sources. As at March 2005 there were at least 2,400 central government quangos operating on a UK or England basis (i.e. ignoring those managed on a devolved basis in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or Greater London).

(2) This centralisation is exacerbated by a targets culture. The Treasury has Public Service Agreements with the various central government departments whereby "performance conditions" are attached to funding increases under Gordon Brown three-yearly Spending Reviews. In parallel, the Cabinet Office has a plethora of agencies such as the Prime Minister’s Delivery Unit and the Strategy Unit  establishing central plans for the public sector. This forces the Whitehall Departments in turn to attach performance targets and conditions to the agencies they fund. In England the Audit Commission sits at the head of a vast empire of box-tickers running continuous monitoring of services in areas such as local government, criminal justice, health, and housing. OFSTED is also responsible for an inspection regime over schools. There is little or no evidence that targets of themselves have caused a better standard of public service. Even the most optimistic analysis of performance under Blair, Better Or Worse? By Polly Toynbee & David Walker concedes the "mindlessness of targetry as practised under New Labour", accepts that productivity has declined in the public sector (notably the NHS) and points out that too many plans fail to join-up with each other.

Britain's conservative movement

This is the second of three ten point briefings to mark one year of ConservativeHome.com.  The first focused on the 'politics of and'.

(1) What is the conservatism?  Is it what the Conservative Party does? It must be more than that and it is.  In America conservatives form a big part of the Republican Party’s coalition but there are also more libertarian and more pragmatic members.  There are a diminishing number of conservatives across the political aisle; in the increasingly liberal Democratic Party.  The British Conservative Party includes conservatives but there are many conservatives outside its ranks. There are conservatives in the churches and in the environmental movement.  There are strong defenders of the nation state in other parties.  The fact that the Conservative Party is only part of conservatism is why this site calls its main blog the ToryDiary.

The 'politics of and'

During this 'first anniversary of ConservativeHome.com' week we'll be posting three special ten point briefings on three big ConservativeHome themes.  Today's first briefing focuses on the 'and theory of conservatism'.  Next we'll focus on the conservative movement's relationship with the Conservative Party and then the role of blogging.

David Cameron's first 100 days

Over the last week ConservativeHome has hosted a variety of reflections on David Cameron's first 100 days.  This Ten Point Briefing draws on some of those reflections and summarises some of the opinions that have appeared in the ConservativeHome editorials on ToryDiary.

(1) David Cameron has not yet transformed the opinion poll ratings of the Conservative Party.  The party is still a long way from the 43% or 44% rating that it needs for a parliamentary majority of one.  An opinion poll on David Cameron's 99th day gave Labour a 3% lead. This was a little disappointing given the very positive press coverage that the Tory leader has enjoyed.  The same polls do show that Mr Cameron would probably do better against Gordon Brown, however.  There has been some underlying improvements, too.  More people think that the Conservative Party cares about ordinary people, as Stephan Shakespeare has observed, and most people see Cameron himself as "a likeable, charismatic, caring and reasonable family man".   The Tory leader has certainly been at ease talking about his family and this has been welcomed by the popular press.

How to Win the War in Iraq

“One ought never to turn one’s back on a threatened danger and try to run away from it.  If you do that, you will double the danger.  But if you meet it promptly and without flinching, you will reduce the danger by half.”

- Winston Churchill

"The quickest way to end a war is to lose it."

- George Orwell

(1) In the last few days a growing number of American politicians - led by Bill Clinton - have formed a louder and louder chorus arguing for an early exit from Iraq.  Senator John McCain, a leading Republican candidate to be America's next President, has refused to join that chorus.  He knows that an exit strategy is a euphemism for retreat.  He has argued that the consequences of cutting and running from Iraq are unacceptable.  He has also said that the current Bush-Rumsfeld policy is inadequate for the securing of victory.  This Ten Point Briefing is based on a speech that Senator McCain recently gave to the American Enterprise Institute, entitled Winning The War In Iraq.

The Fall of George W Bush

(1) George W Bush’s popularity is falling faster than the New England leaves.  His approval rating has just dropped below 40% and it’s still going down.  You can’t open a newspaper without sensing the hostility towards America’s 43rd President.  And it’s not the usual suspects that are most upset.  The left-of-centre MooreOn Tendency can always be relied upon to slate President Bush but today’s anger is coming from the religious conservatives, The Wall Street Journal and the Republican-controlled Senate.  How did this happen?

The fight to protect Conservative Party members' voting rights

(1) Opposition to Michael Howard’s plan to restore MPs-only control of the leadership election was slow to get going but it now looks likely to succeed.  Two-thirds of the Constitutional Convention of 1,000+ MPs, MEPs, Constituency Association Chairmen and peers must authorise the Maude-Monbiot-Howard proposal to scrap the one-member-one-vote (OMOV) election process.  The approval hurdle is appropriately high.  Two-thirds of those eligible to vote - not just of those who vote – must consent.

The Conservative Party's electoral plight

A widely-reported analysis by the C Change pressure group has underlined the Tories’ electoral plight.  This ten-point memo is divided in half.  The first half looks at the nature of the plight.  The second five points assess some of the commonly discussed remedies: (a) wait for Gordon Brown to succeed Tony Blair; (b) wait for Labour to become unpopular; (c) speak more confidently about our core beliefs; (d) become more compassionate; and (e) overhaul party campaigning.  Many Tory MPs will complain that they have heard the C Change analysis before but it can be fairly countered that they have ignored it.

(1) C-Change’s report, which reviews a wealth of election and polling data, argues that most of the limited progress made by Michael Howard at the last election reflected support for Labour MPs switching to LibDem and other parties – allowing second-placed Tories to steal victories.  18 of the Tories’ 31 gains happened this way according to BBC research.

Bush's growth and tech-based alternative to Kyoto

(1) The Kyoto Treaty was always a flawed treaty.  It failed to cover developing nations – who will account for 50% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 - and it also risked a negative impact on economic growth.  In that regard Kyoto was a classic case of tomato environmentalism - it started off looking ‘green’ but has ended up producing 'red-coloured' bigger state solutions.  The regulatory ethos, hardwired into the Kyoto treaty, explains much of the sclerosis bedeviling Kyoto’s main champions - the inflexible eurozone nations.