Zehra Zaidi was a Conservative candidate for the European Parliament in South West England at the 2009 elections and has been a development consultant on governance and democratisation for UNICEF and the British Council. She has also acted as an adviser to Andrew Mitchell, the Shadow Secretary of State for International Development.
As news channels rightly focus on the devastating impact of the Japanese tsunami and Gaddafi's continued crackdown on opposition forces in Libya, violence has once again escalated in Bahrain. The severity of the situation cannot be stressed enough. This cluster of islands off the Eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, barely four times the size of Washington DC, is the base of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet and a key Western ally but also a country where rival regimes of Saudi Arabia and Iran have long held competing interests.
What started earlier last week as reported threats received by human rights activists escalated to demonstrations ahead of last Friday's surprise visit by US Defence Secretary Robert Gates. More than 800 people were injured in Sunday's demonstrations. A day after Gates' visit, it seems the Bahrain regime has turned to its neighbour to help quell the protests. Late last night, we heard news that the Saudi National Guard under the auspices of the Gulf Cooperation Council (“GCC”) is due to enter Bahrain to help bring matters under control. The advice from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office is ominous, advising against all travel to Bahrain and for British nationals currently in Bahrain to remain at home until further notice”. Scanning what are largely uncorroborated twitter reports coming out of Bahrain, 'alarmed' is only half of what I am feeling as I scan my blackberry for updates.
Most will see the recent trouble in Bahrain as an extension of the political unrest that has spread across the Middle East. In fact, the protests that began in mid February are not new at all. Bahrain with its highly developed civil society has a record of political activism.
The country won independence forty years ago after the British Government withdrew from all territories east of Suez. In 1973, the then ruling emir, Isa bin Salman al-Khalifa, established an elected parliament in order to secure internal legitimacy in a country in which 70% of the population - unlike the ruling royal family – were Shiite Muslim. However, this assembly was dissolved two years later when over zealous parliamentarians pushed for land reforms, curbs on the spending of the royal family and an end to the US military presence. The 1990s saw a landmark uprising or intifada which only ended after Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa ascended to the throne in 1999 promising constitutional change. Women were given the vote and political prisoners were released. On 14 February 2001, a referendum was held on the National Action Charter, which pledged to restore parliament and install an elected Prime Minister. The regime proposed an amendment to the Constitution allowing for the introduction of an upper house of appointed parliamentarians whose power would be advisory over an elected lower house.
The National Charter received overwhelming public backing. However, Sheikh Hamad reneged on delivering the full package of reforms. In the Parliament that was established, the forty parliamentarians who were appointed by the King had far more power than those forty who were elected. Opposition groups pushed for a return to the 1973 constitution and eventually two main camps emerged: one that focussed on seeking parliamentary reform and one which called for mass protests. It is the latter camp that has increasingly gained the upper hand in Bahrain. It is no coincidence that this year's protests which followed upheaval across the Middle East started on 14 February – a date which marked the 10 year anniversary of The National Charter.
The ruling elite have been simply too slow to recognise the need to accelerate constitutional reforms. Of course, democracy in Bahrain may come at a price: the election of Islamist politicians (in the 2006 elections both Sunni and Shiite Islamists made gains). But we have reached a stage where those protesting have moved from demanding constitutional reform to overthrow of the ruling family and young activists are becoming more and more radicalised. The situation is dangerous and highly unpredictable.