A lot has been written about the latest UK polling figures and how the Liberal Democrats seem to be the biggest losers from the current coalition government. What is less well reported is that one of the surprise winners seems to be the Scottish Conservatives.
A close analysis of the daily YouGov polling puts us in a clear second place in Scotland and – I would contend – firmly on the long road back from the post-1997 wipeout. It has only taken thirteen years.
Firstly, some housekeeping. The figures included below come from the Scotland sample of the wider UK polls conducted by YouGov and available to view on their political archive found here. The sample sizes were just below 200 Scots per sample, which I recognise is too small to be statistically significant - however, taken over many weeks, it becomes a sizeable number (more than 5,000) and a clear narrative emerges.
Yes, many Scots have reacted to a Conservative-led Westminster government with a stereotypical, knee-jerk, client-state, tribal backing of Labour (as our Southern media cousins would have us believe). But that’s not the whole story.
The Conservatives are putting on votes. We are consistently polling second and are acting as the main counterweight to Labour north of the border.