Ed Hall is a businessman and Conservative activist in Kensington and Chelsea, who was formerly in the Royal Navy, and occasionally blogs here.
So what happens if the Greek government collapses in its current form? As I write, the Greek Prime Minister is struggling to convince a doubtful populace that the future should be one of falling wages, reduced pensions and massive unemployment. If the current government falls, then, in the current climate, can anyone imagine a smooth process to a new one?
A Greek General Election with parties that question the value or validity of EU membership at all can’t be that far away, and the possible role of the armed forces in managing an election and taking temporary control of the state is already the subject of much speculation on blogs and the Twittersphere.
If Greece really does begin to collapse and the Armed Forces take control (the last Junta only ended in 1974), then surely the EU has to take steps to expel Greece from the club? Can a country run by an unelected military dictatorship be a member of the European Union? Would they send colonels to the Council of Ministers? Or try a civilian puppet as they did in 1967? Greek membership of the EU would have to be suspended.
So if the risk is stronger than ever that Greece collapses into political and public order chaos, then the risk seems to be that the army feels its time has come. The sacking of the whole leadership of the Greek Armed Forces this week would suggest this is a real concern. And so we come to Turkey, which still aspires to EU membership (but is probably confident that now isn’t exactly the time), as they glance once again towards Cyprus. And the Greeks, maybe controlled once again by their military, glance back.