I've argued over the past year or so that the EU debate in the UK was rather behind the times, in that the real options we are likely to face aren't "renegotiate" vs "status quo" or "in" vs "out", but, rather, "out" vs "more out". It seems to me increasingly plausible that, far from hotting up, the UK's EU referendum debate will fizzle out, because by the time we actually have a referendum almost everyone serious in Britain will agree that we should leave. And that won't be because we'll all have changed out minds about the value of the EU. It will be because the EU itself has changed so much that there won't be any viable form of EU membership that does not involve being part of the Single European State.
To remind you, my argument for the "out" vs "more out" characterisation of the discussion has been as follows. In response to the Eurozone crisis, the EU is pressing ahead rapidly towards full political integration, in the form of an EU Federation. That is not some vague long-term aspiration. Earlier today President Hollande of France confirmed that France wants to see full political integration, including EU-level tax-raising, budgetary power and an elected President, by 2015.