John O’Sullivan: The next election is probably already lost but a programme of long-term renewal may also help the Conservative Party maximise its vote against Brown

Former Special Adviser to Margaret Thatcher, John is now Editor-in-Chief of the international affairs magazine, The National Interest, Editor-at-Large of the magazine the National Review, and a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.

The first step is to face reality. Gordon Brown will probably win the next election and, if he does not, the likely reason is that he will have been defeated by events in the real world. But be of good cheer. “Project Cameron” has been only a modest contributory factor to this discouraging prospect.

Its first phase—“I’m a Celebrity, Get Me out of Opposition”—never really took. It won few converts and gave a general impression of frivolity and cynicism which Brown has shrewdly exploited. Its second phase—here are the in-depth conservative policies at long last—has hit an obvious obstacle: any serious conservative policies are likely to clash with the fashionable postures of phase one, generating both ideological confusion and media embarrassment. See the coverage of the Redwood-Wolfson report.

Some journalists, justifying their own predictions, camouflage these failures with the line: “But Cameron has made the Conservatives electable again.” Really? A party that was only four points behind Labour in the 2005 election was always electable. Polls today show that the Tories, after a short bounce largely attributable to Blair’s unpopularity, are back to that level. So “Project Cameron” has not really improved matters but, on the other hand, the crisis of Toryism was never as deep as the more masochistic modernisers believed. A Tory revival is perfectly possible, though not guaranteed, if the party keeps its head and acts sensibly.

And there is a third reason for comfort: the actions needed for a long-term revival are pretty much the same as those required to profit from a Labour downturn before or during the next election. Let me suggest a few to the party leadership:

First, don’t strategise in public. It gives the impression, mentioned above, of insincerity and cynicism and subtly devalues any political or moral commitment you make. Policies should be justified on the grounds that they are good for the country, not that they are useful devices for getting elected.

Second, re-discover the concept of intellectual investment. “Project Cameron” is rooted in the assumption that the current intellectual and cultural climate in Britain cannot be seriously challenged. It must therefore be appeased. But even if the Tories could be elected by appeasing a fundamentally inhospitable culture—which is doubtful—they would then have to steer by the same stars in government, probably onto the rocks. Once you accept that victory in the next election is unlikely, however, you can begin the long process of persuading the nation, including the media, that such values as patriotism, self-reliance, and enterprise—and such approaches as choice, competition, and diversity of provision in public services—are both admirable and sensible.

Third, don’t be afraid of novel ideas. Remember, you are thinking and persuading for the long term. You can afford to launch initiatives that might initially strike people as risky or eccentric but that make sense when properly explained over time. My own pet notion here: replace the fixed school leaving age with one where children can leave when they pass a (stiffish) examination. That would give disruptive pupils a real incentive to learn; they might even find they liked it and remain to study. Okay, maybe you don’t favor this particular idea. But a willingness to be intellectually and politically adventurous would make the Tories exciting again.

Fourth, get over your obsessions with immigration, crime and Europe. Treat them for what they are: important issues of real concern on which the Tories are instinctively more trusted by the voters than Labour. Advance sensible policies on them that reflect both popular views and Tory principles. Include them in a wider menu of policies. Your mistake in the 2005 manifesto was not to highlight immigration but to have nothing distinctive to say on almost anything else, especially on the central issue of taxation and public spending. On Europe, for instance, talk to George Osborne’s father-in-law who understands that Britain’s economic and political future lies more with Asia and North America (in particular with the so-called Anglosphere) than with the European Union. Isn’t this a novel idea requiring long-term intellectual investment? Certainly, but it is one with better prospects of ultimate electoral and practical success than the necrophiliac policy of merging gradually into some new European semi-state entity. And almost any response would be better than the current Tory attitude of primly averting one’s gaze, like a maiden lady frightened by something nasty in the woodshed, whenever these topics intrude on polite political conversation.

Fifth, if you really must have a “Clause Four” (in American English, a “Sister Souljah”) moment, then aim it in the right direction. There are no Thatcherite extremists comparable to the Bennites and Trotskyists in the Labour Party. Compare the polling numbers on the death penalty and nationalisation to get the point. If Cameroons have a reassurance problem, it is the need to demonstrate that they are not political metrosexuals more anxious to please the Guardian and the BBC rather than the Mail and the Telegraph. So look for an issue on which to strike a populist-conservative note. You muffed your chance to vote against the illiberal and uncompassionate legislation that will compel all adoption agencies to place children with gay couples and therefore force the closure of Catholic agencies, dooming more children to perpetual orphanhood. In doing so, you failed both to strike a conservative moral note and to defend the genuinely liberal principle of a society that tolerates diverse moral traditions. Another chance will come along in time. Please don’t muff that too.

Finally, don’t get hung up on the division between power and principle. Power is sought to implement principle; yet principles can also be implemented from out of power. If the Tory Opposition had not fought for a referendum on the European Constitution three years ago, Blair would not have agreed to it; if Blair had not done so, the French would not have felt compelled to hold a referendum too; if the French referendum had not been held, the Constitution would have sailed through. So the Tory Opposition significantly altered history on that occasion—a better service to conservatism than the Major government’s acquiescence in the further advance to European integration under the Maastricht Treaty.

There’s a general lesson here. It is quite common for strong and intellectually self-confident oppositions to drag governments in their ideological direction. That should matter more than simply getting one’s bottom onto the Treasury bench—especially if you don’t manage to get your bottom onto the Treasury bench next time.

This is the final contribution to ConservativeHome's What David Cameron Should Do Next series.  Click here then scroll down the page below this article to see them all.

Comments

[The Wilted Rose]

Whilst I agree with many of your prescriptions for the Conservative Party's renewal, I'm not so sure the next election is lost. Yes, there was a recent 42% Lab, 32% Con, 16% LD but that was a Brown Bounce -- John Major won the 1992 election but months later was 20 points behind in the opinion polls. It's a matter of timing; if Brown can sneak an election through before things go pear-shaped; but "Events, dear boy, events." Watch across the Atlantic: economically, we're in for it, and the one man who's going to get the blame is Brown. Then it's likely to be 29% Lab, 45% Con, 20% LD

[malcolm]

I agree with you Wilted Rose. I don't believe that the next election is yet lost,polls can change very rapidly depending on events.
Of all the columnists John O'Sullivan is the most persuasive on ideas for Conservative party renewal so far.

[Umbrella man]

The election IS lost in my opinion. Cameron is too far behind on standing as potential PM and ability to keep the nation safe (versus Brown's own high standing). John O'Sullivan's advice is spot on. It's all about long-term renewal now but Cameron is taking us in the wrong direction on this issue.

[Ali Gledhill]

The Tories will not win the next election, but are going to get a huge majority at the one after.

Remember, Clause IV was only a moment - the process of change went much deeper, over a much longer period of time. Cameron has only started that process: it will take a few years to see the fruits of his labour, under a different leader.

[Think about it]

Wow, a breath of fresh air; common sense and someone in touch with reality.

However, John was too polite to note that the revival will occur with someone other than Cameron at the helm.

Cameroonism has given an unnecessary last gasp of breath to Blairism. However the party is in some areas doing the essential work of pulling Brown over onto conservative turf.

The battle is won when the opposition is forced to talk your language, forced to fight on your turf.

Right now Brown is starting to do that, but the Cameroons are negating this gain by simultaneously taking in Blair tongue. It is confusing.

Once Blairism (including its cheap clone, Cameroonism) has been finally buried, Brown would have been forced to shift onto conservative ground in so many areas, that a solid conservative leader will be able to defeat Labour on *our terms* not just in one election, but for many elections to come.

Another Labour government is not a pleasant thought, but it is unfortunately a necessary evil to properly rebuild a conservative party onto solid foundations that can control politics for a generation.

Cameron, like Kinnock has performed some important perception changes for the party, but after the next election, it will be time to build a solid conservatism platform to wipe Labour off the political map for many years to come.

The party will owe some thanks to Cameron, but Cameron's greatest contribution to the party would be to swiftly and quietly step down after the election defeat and to support the next phase.

[englandism]

The next election is not already lost but it is there to lose if this self-destructive introspection is permitted to further confuse the electorate.

The current deficit is a product of ‘anyone but Blair’ and the ‘give the lad a chance’ novelty factor. The media will build Brown up and then demolish him.

This is what the media do and it is what the media is currently doing to Cameron now that the novelty factor has worn off. It is how the game works and we need, as the author identifies, to understand the rules, to state a coherent and clear game plan and to start being seen to score goals.

The opportunities for finding the back of the net are rolling past on a daily basis so take a punt at a few and see what happens.

If Man City can beat Man U then anything is possible.

Even an English parliament. Sorry, it just sort of slipped in.

[Paul Oakley]

Can't agree that we are going to lose the next election unless GB takes a punt on holding it this autumn while he's still ahead in the polls.

The real problem for the government is that all the signs show we are in for an economic downturn if not a recession. Brown won't take the risk of going to the country in the middle of a slump. As such, I reckon the possibilities are: autumn 2007, Labour win. Anything later up to and including May 2010, we win.

[Scotty]

This analysis is the most depressing and short sighted of all the articles in this series.
It could have been written before or after our previous 3 election defeats, if that is the level of aspiration then it is no wonder that we have only increased our *bottoms* on the backbenches by 30 in 10 years.

I am sorry but this is naval gazing at its worst and would deliver a Brown government for another 4/5 years, as pep talks go its the same old defence strategy that has delivered a Labour government with an overwhelming majority.

[Umbrella man]

englandlism: "The next election is not already lost but it is there to lose if this self-destructive introspection is permitted to further confuse the electorate."

The confusion is caused by our party leader. noone knows what our party stands for anymore.

[Ali Gledhill]

The next election is not already lost but it is there to lose if this self-destructive introspection is permitted to further confuse the electorate.

Winning the next general election is not the be-all and end-all of politics. It can be worth waiting a little longer for power if then you are strong enough to govern decisively. There is a long way to go yet. Play for long-term benefit, not short-term polling.

[Ali Gledhill]

Posted by: Scotty | August 21, 2007 at 10:02
This analysis is the most depressing and short sighted of all the articles in this series.

On the contrary, this is a long-sighted, realistic picture. It is also very optimistic about Tory chances in the future, but realistic about the fact that you cannot magic an electoral victory overnight.

[michael m]

The most depressing article I have read so far where the writer seems to will a self fulfilling prophecy.
I am sorry to beat on about this, but the absence of any fight or even signs of one from any of the Front Bench or the MPs will make all this easier to achieve. Today there was a news item on cancer recovery rates being worse than in some Eastern European Countries- Labour put this at the top of their agenda in 1997 for improvement. Yet where this morning were any Conservative voices drawing this failure to the public?

The way the Conservative MPs and Peers- most of them- have been behaving in recent months has been shameful and the disloyalty shown to the leader is now something we are paying for in public perceptions.

For the majority of Conservative MPs, they have safe seats and comfortable second and lucrative careers, so the attitude seems to be - why bother?

As someone in a Labour Marginal we must win next time, I find all of this as a betrayal of all us supporters are doing and ultimately, this will be to the country's detriment.

Why oh why is no- one getting all this lot off their holidays and out of the board rooms and marching into battle. Am I the only one who feels so strongly about this? If so why I am continually reading in the press from the political correspondents that this is also their view?

Who can we go to to air our outrage?

[anthony scholefield]

Regrettably the world has moved on since the Thatcher years. We now live in a Britain in which 58% of births in London are to women born abroad plus goodness knows what percentage to women whose mothers were born abroad.About half of these are born to a hostile and intractable Muslim minority so you dont have to have advanced maths to look at the population of London in say 25 years time-specifically the youth poplation of London.
In fact London is lost or nearly lost to Britain and those who will inhabit the London of 2030 will have a completely different philosophy and religion to those who are there now.
Sure there may be one or two enclaves where the liberal wealthy will live but they will not have the numbers to swim against the then prevailing zeitgeist.
In all this the Tory party is 'the long withdrawing roar' of virtual irrelevance as it chases down every avenue of pointless secondary distraction,
Mo more muslims!

[michael m]

For some correspondents to say that to loose now will bring us rewards later is the worse kind of defeatism. Next time there will be a fresh and young dynamic Liberal Democrat Leader and Gordon Brown will bring in proportional representation- with just these two additional factors against us- what chance in 4/5 years time?
I say to everyone who talks defeat to think about what they are saying and its implications!

[anthony scholefield]

Regrettably the world has moved on since the Thatcher years. We now live in a Britain in which 58% of births in London are to women born abroad plus goodness knows what percentage to women whose mothers were born abroad.About half of these are born to a hostile and intractable Muslim minority so you dont have to have advanced maths to look at the population of London in say 25 years time-specifically the youth poplation of London.
In fact London is lost or nearly lost to Britain and those who will inhabit the London of 2030 will have a completely different philosophy and religion to those who are there now.
Sure there may be one or two enclaves where the liberal wealthy will live but they will not have the numbers to swim against the then prevailing zeitgeist.
In all this the Tory party is 'the long withdrawing roar' of virtual irrelevance as it chases down every avenue of pointless secondary distraction,
Mo more muslims!

[Old Hack]

If the next election is indeed lost (and its far too early to admit defeat, just as it was a few months ago to assume victory) then it is we who have lost it, not the Government.

People desperately want an excuse, any reasonable halfway decent excuse or justification for voting Conservative.

Pious moralising and prudence be dammed. We need to connect and communicate a few good reasons to vote Tory.

We should be positive, we should be authentic to ourselves and then we should go for Labour's jugular.

Is that too much too ask?

[Jomo]

The Cameron project is finished. He and his friends are essentially liberals and will always go along with the latest fads of the metropolitan elite. He said he was confortable with nulab Britain, hardly a recipe for change.

Cameron has nothing to say on the disasters in Iraq and Afganistan (military victory sold out by political failure...nulab to the core). He will use the referendum as cover and go along with the treaty and the red lines.

Brown has the security of the smaller parties willing to support a coalition at any price.

Perhaps there is still time to bring in a new leader and put forward some of the ideas set out by John O'Sullivan. There doesn't seem much point in continuing to back a loser!

[Yet Another Anon]

Next time there will be a fresh and young dynamic Liberal Democrat Leader and Gordon Brown will bring in proportional representation
Alternative Vote is a possibility, but I doubt that Gordon Brown would bring in something like STV which would virtually guarantee that Labour could not form a majority government for decades to come if ever again.

Labour were only ever on levels on support that would possibly win a majority under STV were in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955 and 1966; and in those General Elections Conservative support was higher in 1955 and high enough in others that at most Labour would have only won 2 General Elections ever with an overall majority - 1945 and 1966 probably.

I think it is likely that Labour will regain those who voted for them in 2001 probably with many who did in 1997 who didn't subsequently as well; the Conservative vote will go up as well to as high or higher than that of 1997 in total numbers and the Liberal Democrats will probably slip back a bit.

I think David Cameron is likely still to be leader of the Opposition after the next General Election, but I don't think he will ever be Prime Minister, although I think it is likely he will be a Cabinet minister in the next Conservative Government under his successor, who I still think will be likely to be Priti Patel.

In the event of the Conservative Party apparently going backwards in terms of support, it is quite probable that this would save Menzies Campbell's neck and with the Liberal Democrats maybe even holding or slightly improving their position he would be acclaimed a hero by his party, in such circumstances David Cameron would almost certainly be pushed out if he didn't go voluntarily, it is premature to assume that Menzies Campbell will not be Liberal Democrat leader going into the 2014 General Election, people were very critical of Charles Kennedy around 2000 and although he was a dreadful leader he was saved by disillusionment with the main 2 parties and a cynical populist naive campaign over the War on Terror by the Liberal Democrats.

I reckon that for 2009: Labour 39% (355-385 seats), Conservative 34% (200-220 seats), Liberal Democrat 16% (30-50 seats), UKIP 3% (0-1 seats), Others 8% (25-30 seats). Labour majority between about 60 and 120.

2014 General Election will probably see the Liberal Democrats fall back a bit further and Labour and the Conservatives vote go up further.

I think then David Cameron will resign as leader and be succeeded by Priti Patel who I think will be seen as being a chance of uniting a Thatcherite agenda with an emphasis on inclusion, that the Conservative Party is open to minorities also and she would be especially effective in swinging a number of city seats with large Hindu populations.

Ed Balls succeeds Gordon Brown in 2017 and then the 2019 General Election is very close between Labour and Conservative with possibly the Conservatives getting slightly more votes, but probably Labour scraping a majority - this could mean the Conservatives returning to power then in an early electtion or winning strongly in 2023/24 - so I expect the Conservative Party to return to power between 2019 and 2024 and for Labour then to sink into ideological arguments over whether the 1997-2019/24 Labour Government was really a true Labour government.

[Ali Gledhill]

Posted by: Yet Another Anon | August 21, 2007 at 11:31
I expect the Conservative Party to return to power between 2019 and 2024.

2012 seems much more likely. The electorate is already displaying signs of erratic behaviour: Labour is running out of runway, and the crash will be ugly.

[Think about it]

"who I still think will be likely to be Priti Patel."

I agree. She needs shadow cabinet experience, but who better to deliver a solid conservative agenda than someone who actually believes in it like Priti, and boy, will Labour have difficulty churning out the tired, old attacks when faced with a youngish, female, Asian party leader.

It took a strong woman last time to sort out the mess and it looks like the same will happen again! ;-)

[englandism]

@Nostradamus

'I expect the Conservative Party to return to power between 2019 and 2024'

A bit harsh and a bit ceteris paribus.

Some good news, amid the doom and gloom, is that David appears to have put his tie back on. And it is blue.

[John Craig]

"Some good news, amid the doom and gloom, is that David appears to have put his tie back on. And it is blue."

I noted that and commented. Is he already taking advice from yesterday's articles and looking more statesman like?

He was covered twice on last night's 10 o'clock news - all positive.

He and the rest of our party need to attack and win back our credibility and take on Brown at every opportunity.

Polls can change overnight - look at the Brown bounce.

It may be too late for October - but if we can stop Brown taking the chance in October then next year we are in with a shout.

Good to see him in the North today takling hospital closures.

[Yet Another Anon]

Labour could easily have been out of power a lot longer the last time around, in the late 1980's there was really no reason to suppose that Margaret Thatcher couldn't go on winning and be PM for another 20 years and maybe even having a succession of Conservative Prime Ministers in office for long spells with a permanent Labour opposition, but the way that Margaret Thatcher was removed and the disruption of the ERM and the Maastricht Treaty and Railway Fragmentation and issues of food safety (BSE and E Coli) really brought it to an end much sooner than might have been expected.

[The Huntsman]

An excellent article which ought to be nailed to every Tory MP's shaving/vanity mirror.

I like his description of further integration in to the EU as "the necrophiliac policy of merging gradually into some new European semi-state entity".

His view of the EU as a clunky 20th. behemoth,(and let us face it the EU is a 20th. Century cradle-to-grave welfarist, protectionist, Socialist, pacifist, anti-competitive kakistocracy), unequal to the dynamic and flexible demands of real modern world of the 21st. C is one which we should grab firmly to present ourselves as the real modernisers of our country and its place in the world, in terms of our diplomacy and our trade. That should give us a way through the maze that Europe has become (such that for some less than courageous politicians it is a case of the unmentionables). Let us say we have a better, more modern idea and leave the other dinosaurs in our wake.

Point three is also sound common sense. Let us not just be innovative: let us be radical again, think the unthinkable, be prepared to catch the imagination of voters. Playing catch up all the time is going to get us nowhere. The Exam idea is just the sort of thing.

Point two also makes a good point. Instead of trying to be Labour Mark II, it surely is far better to take these core conservative ideas and make them relevant to people's real lives in the 21st. C instead of allowing Labour to go on applying the failed nostrums of the 1970s to the modern world or of aping them.

Give this man a job!

[Chris Palmer]

This is the best article in the series.

[Victor, NW Kent]

Rounds the series off very well. The moral of the story is "When the going gets tough, the tough get going".

The next election is not yet lost but we must take firm and rapid steps to win it.

[Ken Stevens]

First Janet Daley, now John O'Sullivan.

Why do the best political minds seem to be in journalism, rather than politics?

[Praguetory]

"First, don’t strategise in public. It gives the impression of insincerity and cynicism and subtly devalues any political or moral commitment you make. Policies should be justified on the grounds that they are good for the country, not that they are useful devices for getting elected."

BINGO

[Iain]

John Craig
"He and the rest of our party need to attack and win back our credibility and take on Brown at every opportunity."

Well that will be a change, for it seems Cameron only gets passionate when he is attacking his own Party and people, where the people who believe in Grammar schools to him are 'delusional'. The people who are EUsceptics are 'swivel eyed closet racists'. The English people who are angry at being made constitutionally second class citizens and discriminated because they are English to him are 'sour faced little Englanders'!

In other words all the people who can put him into power, he despises and insults.

[Huntarian]

This is the best article in the series.
May I second that motion!

Ps Scotty think green--- please make sure you turn the lights out when you leave.

[Huntarian]

This is the best article in the series.
May I second that motion!

Ps Scotty think green--- please make sure you turn the lights out when you leave.

[Rupert Butler]

John O’Sullivan is right in virtually everything he says here. We need a principled party and we need to offer a principled government. The first principle is not that the Conservative Party should somehow trick the electorate into voting us in.

What is attractive about his throwaway education policy – that school leavers must first pass their leaving exam – is that it is a self-regulating policy. It might be our real first principle that a future Conservative regime will be self-regulating.

By such a principle, all hospitals become private hospitals (unless the MOD can be persuaded to look after its injured servicemen properly, as used to be the case); all schools become private schools; land development issues become private sector issues, with all interested parties (especially the government) buying any right to interfere with the purposes of those who own the property to be developed.

Alternatively our first principle might be that the elector is entitled to keep or spend, at his discretion, much more than 60% of what he earns. Firmly expressed, that would make the policies suggested above quite appealing.

If we were secure in our principles, we would have much less difficulty than we have at present in codifying our policies for any new election. We would be much less timid about exposing these precious policies for fear that the opposition would steal them. We would have no excuse not to devote time and energy to the essential task of explaining them to the voter.

It is 17 years since we have enjoyed recognisably principled leadership. There is the possibility that, among our current parliamentarians, there is already one who is securely principled in this way. The sooner we find him or her the better.

[Patrick Harris]

Boy Dave is a bit accident prone of late, I call them accidents I just wonder if someone on the inside isn't having a great time.

[Occasional poster]

The most accurate article of the series by far.

[Idris Francis]

John Sullivan's article dated August last year should really be updated! He might well have seemed right last August but that was then and now is now.

It is now INCONCEIVABLE that Brown and his Titanic crew could win the election. The only question now is how many decades Labour will be out of power.