Survation for the Mail on Sunday has Maria Hutchings four points ahead in Eastleigh
By Paul Goodman
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The figures are:
- Conservatives: 33
- Liberal Democrats: 29
- Labour: 13
- UKIP: 22
This morning's Populus poll for the Times (£) found the following:
- Conservatives: 28
- Liberal Democrats: 33
- Labour: 11
- UKIP: 21
Lord Ashcroft's poll a fortnight ago recorded:
- Conservatives: 34
- Liberal Democrats: 31
- Labour: 19
- UKIP: 13
A few quick points:
- If the polls to date are to be believed, the Coalition partners are battling it out for first place.
- Anthony Wells of Yougov noted earlier today noted of the Populus poll that "a quarter said don’t know and a further 12% refused to give a voting intention" - a big total percentage.
- UKIP are clearly coming up on the rails very fast indeed, having increased their support since the Ashcroft poll, according to the others, by over a third.
- Labour's John O'Farrell is being squeezed out, and some of Labour's support, like some of that from the two main parties, has gone to UKIP.
- It is still probable that one of the two main parties will win, but it is clearly not impossible that UKIP will come second or even first, and should now come a good third at least.
- Tim Montgomerie has just tweeted that it is vital that Tory activists pour into the seat before Thursday.
- I plan to pour myself into Eastleigh, so to speak, on Wednesday, but have noted that the LibDem information on the ground will be better than CCHQ's.