By Tim Montgomerie
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You may have been away for Christmas and the New Year or simply switched off. You may therefore have missed Paul Goodman's four reasons why Cameron couldn't win a majority at the next election. I begged to differ. So did Grant Shapps. Most interesting, however, were the responses of some on the Left. Many on the Left simply do not share the Right's pessimism about Cameron's chances.
To cheer those readers who return 'to school' today here are a few of their arguments...
At Labour Uncut Atul Hatwal focuses on Labour's GROWING disadvantage on economic trust. At Labour Uncut he wrote (my emphasis):
"Labour is 11% behind on economic competence and no opposition has gone on to win the next election when trailing the government on the economy, after two and half years... We are now further behind the Tories on the economy than at the time of the last election, and that’s after all of the pain of the past two and a half years. Noone in any position of leadership within the party has proffered any type of explanation or plan to turn this deficit around, other than to keep on doing what has palpably failed since 2010."
For Dan Hodges Labour isn't polling any where near as well as it should be polling at this stage of a very tricky parliament. Given, he writes, "the omnishambolic year the Government has just had, and the fact the country is teetering on the edge of a triple-dip recession with real term incomes stagnating, Labour still can only just scrape a double-digit lead and still cannot consistently break 40%." Hodges continues by arguing that Labour's relatively small lead is flattered by an unnaturally inflated UKIP vote and a temporarily depressed LibDem vote. He concludes: "Bring the Ukip and Lib Dem support into realistic alignment, and Labour’s lead vanishes instantly. Ed Miliband’s current poll lead is an illusion."