Will UKIP get their first MP in Boston and Skegness?
Some have said that if UKIP's vote share in the local elections was reflected in a swing at the General Election they would still have no MPs. However that figure of nil is reached by simply applying a national share of the vote. If one looks at the results in the council wards making up individual Parliamentary constituencies then UKIP would have ten MPs - that is according to the Survation analysis.
The seat with the largest UKIP notional majority wouild be Boston and Skegness. The constituency has a dozen divisions on Lincolnshire County Council. The Conservatives hung on in Boston Rural, also in Ingoldmells Rural. An independent won Boston South. But UKIP won the other nine.
What has the impact of these UKIP councillors been? They have spurned a coalition with the Conservatives. They also declined the optiong of sustaining a Conservative minority administration. Instead they chose the comfort of opposition to exercising power. This obliged the Conservatives into a coalition with the Lib Dems who now have a Cabinet Member. I suppose the UKIP councillors will thus find it that bit easier to criticise. I see one Cabinet Member has responsibility for "equality and diversity." Groan.
The irony is that in forcing a coalition with the Lib Dems the election of UKIP councillors pushes the council administration to the Left. Any Conservative efforts to reduce political correctness or cut spending are subject to Lib Dem veto.
Anyway I suppose if they are to get an MP at the next election then Boston and Skegness is their best bet. The Conservative MP is Mark Simmonds. No doubt an excellent chap. However he is also a Foreign Office Minister with responsibility for Africa which must mean that he is abroad quite a lot pursuing such duties.
Personally I doubt we will get any UKIP MPs. But if we do the astonishing indication from county councils is that they would show a preference for a Lab/Lib Dem Government to a Conservative one.
We have been warned.