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Sarah Palin is back with a bang but is unlikely to appear on a presidential ticket again

Sarah Palin's memoir, Going Rogue, is selling like hot cakes but the American fascination with the former Governor of Alaska is unlikely to see her become a contender for the nation's highest office.

Sarah Palin, talking to Oprah Winfrey, says she is not considering a presidential bid in 2012 (not yet, anyway): "“I’m concentrating on 2010,” when there will be midterm elections. Has she thought about running? “It’s not on my radar screen right now,” she said. Then again, she probably wouldn’t tell Oprah if she were, right? “No, I wouldn’t,” Ms. Palin acknowledged." [New York Times].

Moderate Republicans are said to be unhappy at Sarah Palin's re-emergence: "Moderate Republicans—yes, they are not yet extinct, though most are in hiding—scoff at Sarah Palin and wish she would go away. But she's not going away. This week she's going on-air with Barbara Walters and Oprah Winfrey to flog her new book, Going Rogue: An American Life, and to promote her brand of in-your-face, power-to-the-people conservatism." [Newsweek].

For the Republican Portillistas at NewMajority.com, Palin has celebrity but not credibility.

Loved by most Republicans and hated by most Democrats: "Ms. Palin remains highly popular among Republicans (69% favorable). But the Democrats' striking antipathy to the former governor—she has a 72% unfavorable rating among them—drives down her overall approval." [Matthew Continetti].

Independents are divided but could they be won over if she demonstrated substance on policy?: "In last month's Gallup poll, Ms. Palin had a 48% unfavorable and 41% favorable rating among independents. Not good, but not insurmountable. Flip those percentages, and they could be serving moose burgers in the White House in 2013. What drives independents' uncertainty is their feeling that Ms. Palin isn't up to the job." [Matthew Continetti].

The consensus is that she's unlikely to run: "Republicans have just edged ahead of Democrats in the polls and Mr Obama is suddenly looking as if he might be just a one-term President. But Mrs Palin is unlikely to become the candidate who can oust the man Oprah anointed as "the One"." [Toby Harnden].

For many she'll be a hero of movement conservatives but never anything else: “Palin will forever be a cult hero among conservatives, but I think it is unlikely she will ever hold public office again. In fact, I have concluded that she will never even run. In 20 years she will have earned a spot on the mountain with Buckley, Goldwater, and Limbaugh, but I don’t see her on a ballot again.” [A consultant quoted by Jim Geraghty].

Grassroots Conservative candidate forces official Republican candidate to withdraw from New York Congressional race

The US Republicans should have a good day on Tuesday. They are almost certain to reclaim the Governorship of Virginia and have an evens chance of winning the Governorship of new Jersey despite a late surge to the Democrat incumbent.

The race with the greatest long-term implications is taking place in New York state, however. A solidly Republican district has a vacancy after Representative John McHugh was appointed by President Obama as Secretary of the Army. The Republican Party nominated Dede Scozzafava to take his place in Congress but her liberal views enraged ordinary conservative voters.  The Wall Street Journal accurately painted her as a high taxing, union-supporting liberal.

In huge numbers conservative voters defected from the Republican candidate to support an independent Conservative candidate, Doug Hoffman. Hoffman overtook Scozzafava in the polls, won the backing of leading Republicans including Fred Thompson and Sarah Palin and today - just three days before voters go to polling stations - Scozzafava has withdrawn from the race.  This should mean Hoffman wins, and avoids a victory for the Democrat candidate because of a split in the centre right vote.

The long-term implications are also fascinating. The Republican establishment has learnt that Republican voters cannot be taken for granted. In the age of the internet and with the support of talk radio an insurgent candidate can be much more than a protest vote. One day the same thing may happen in Britain.

Monday 2nd November update: The Wall Street Journal warns conservatives not to over-react to the news: "Democrats did themselves no favors by driving Joe Lieberman out of their party, and conservatives will do their cause no good by forcing GOP candidates in Illinois, California and Connecticut to sound like Tom DeLay. If conservatives now revolt against every GOP candidate who disagrees with them on trade, immigration or abortion, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid will keep their majorities for a very long time."

Republican victory in Georgia prevents super majority for Senate Democrats

After November 4th's defeats the Republicans have finally received some good news.

Saxby Chambliss has won a big victory in the run-off for the Georgia Senate seat he first won in 2002 when George W Bush's popularity was at its peak.

Senator Chambliss narrowly failed to win 50% on election day and was forced to face a run-off election yesterday.  He is forecast to have won more than 57% of the vote.

It is now impossible for the Democrats to close down debate in the Senate without the agreement of at least one or two Republicans.  If the recount in Minnesota goes to Norm Coleman the Republicans will hold 42 Senate seats; leaving the Democrats two seats short of a super majority of 60.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin played an active role in the run-off election, stumping across Georgia for Mr Chambliss:

The Republicans after St Paul

The US Republicans leave their Convention in much better heart than most dared to hope. Their President has had lower approval ratings for a longer period than any ever previously recorded (George W Bush was mentioned sixteen times more frequently by Democrats in Denver than by Republicans in St Paul).  Less than two years ago the Grand Old Party lost control of Congress, Iraq was going badly wrong, the Democrats were raising way more money and none of their presidential candidates was inspiring the base.

Most pundits still expect Barack Obama to beat John McCain on 4th November but the Republicans no longer fear a rout. Since Sarah Palin's arrival on the scene - particularly after her barnstorming acceptance speech - many hope for victory and the McCain warchest is at last filling with dollars.

It would be a remarkable achievement for the Republicans to rehabilitate themselves while they still occupy the White House.  Most parties are unable to understand the need for change until the electorate has voted them out. The midterm thumpin' they received in November 2006 has forced them to bring forward their 'modernisation'.

What form has 'modernisation' taken?

John McCain was adopted as their nominee: Senator McCain was not popular among core Republican voters. His relationship with Bush has been uneasy since the latter defeated him in a brutal battle for the 2000 nomination. Since appearing together at a fundraiser in May this year it is reported that they haven't spoken. Bush has voted against the Republican majority on tax, campaign finance reform and immigration. Many rightists of the Coulter tendency vowed never to support him. Realising that a conventional Republican candidate was unlikely to prosper the sensible majority in the GOP swallowed hard and picked McCain. Adjustments in his own positions - on tax and oil exploration in particular - made him an easier pill to digest.