international

The ideological confusion of Nicolas Sarkozy

British Conservatives have been irritated by President Sarkozy in recent times. He has fiercely opposed the decision of David Cameron to take Tory MEPs into a more free market, less federalist grouping in the European Parliament. He has celebrated the appointment of a French EU Commissioner who has the aim of "clamping down" on the City of London's financial dominance. More recently he was putting on a 'best friends act' with Gordon Brown as the two agreed on plans to impose a super tax on banker bonuses.

Time magazine believes that the left-wing drift of Sarkozy is part of a wider pattern of "ideological confusion":

"Who is Nicolas Sarkozy? The answer depends on when you study him. Is he the man elected President in May 2007, who immediately set out to lower income taxes, scrap France's 35-hour workweek, revoke special retirement privileges for public-transport workers, and harangue employees to "work more to earn more"? Or is he the leader who in the past year has slapped down greedy bankers, fumed at U.S. and British resistance to French plans for strict new regulations of the global finance sector, and preached the gospel of "moralizing capitalism"? Is he the man, a son of a Hungarian immigrant, who, newly elected, challenged French pretense of color-blind égalité by arguing for American-style affirmative action? Or is he the leader who, facing critical regional elections next March, has begun openly courting voters of the extreme-right National Front with a crackdown on illegal aliens and a divisive national debate on immigration and French identity?"

The confusion is evident in foreign policy, particularly in the area of human rights:

"Sarkozy pledged to place human rights at the top of his list of requirements for diplomatic partners before he was elected but that quickly gave way to an embrace of leaders like Muammar Gaddafi from Libya and Bashar al-Assad from Syria, state trips to pal around with African dictators, and a congratulatory call to Vladimir Putin after his party's December 2007 success in legislative elections marred by accusations of corruption. "What a strange conception of international affairs when you'd criticize someone for his election victory, and the next day ask him to help you solve the crisis with Iran, with Darfur, and lower tensions in the world," Sarkozy told a January 2008 press conference when challenged on the call. "You consider it normal that I'd insult Mr. Putin by saying his victory was illegitimate, then ask the same illegitimate Putin to help solve the world's problems?"

Time concludes that Sarkozy may be representing the confusion at the heart of France generally:

"In many ways, Sarkozy reflects the contradictions of the French themselves: demanding both free markets and social job protection, wanting modernity and tradition, and wanting fast results with no pain. But those are the very hypocrisies voters elected Sarkozy to combat with his own viable vision for France — not take on for use as his own, inconsistent governing style."

His approval rating is down to 39% from 60% according to Ipsos. It is falling fastest among conservatives.

Sarkozy says Burkha is not welcome in France

France may have Western Europe's largest Muslim population - five million - but it was also the country that, five years ago, banned the Muslim headscarf and other religious symbols from public schools.  President Nicolas Sarkozy has now joined calls for the burkha to be banned:

"We cannot accept to have in our country women who are prisoners behind netting, cut off from all social life, deprived of identity. That is not the idea that the French republic has of women's dignity.
"The burka is not a sign of religion, it is a sign of subservience. It will not be welcome on the territory of the French republic."

President Sarkozy's stance contrasts with that of President Obama, set out in Cairo last month:

"The US government has gone to court to protect the right of women and girls to wear the hijab, and to punish those who would deny it."

The Times' Charles Bremner reports mixed views from France's Muslim leaders:

"Imam of the Paris Mosque Dalil Boubakeur supported an inquiry, saying that face covering for women was a fundamentalist practice originating in Afghanistan that was not prescribed by Islam. The national Muslim Council, which is less tied to the establishment, accused lawmakers of wasting time on a fringe phenomenon. "To raise the subject like this ... is a way of stigmatising Islam," council leader Mohammed Moussaoui said."

The state of European opinion

ComRes have begun to circulate a very interesting guide to public opinion across Europe.  Here are some of the learnings from ComRes' latest email:

• The Czech EU Presidency has produced an opinion poll boost for Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek’s coalition government.
• Denmark is split on joining the Euro.
• 55% of the French public profess to have “no confidence” in President Nicolas Sarkozy.
• "With less than eight months until voters go to the polls, Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU party leads their centre-left SPD coalition partner by eleven percentage points. Crucially for the CDU/CSU coalition, their preferred coalition partners the Free Democratic Party are polling at record high of 18% - enough to guarantee Merkel the seats required to secure another four years in office without the need for an uncomfortable ‘grand coalition’."
• "After rejecting the first referendum on the Lisbon Treaty by a 54% to 46% margin, support for the Treaty among Irish voters now stands at 58%."
• Swedish "Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt’s centre-right coalition government which has held office since 2006 is trailing Social Democrat opposition leader Mona Sahlin’s centre-left coalition by seven percentage points (52% to 45%)."

Download a PDF of the whole paper.

If you would like to receive these updates direct to you please email andrew@comres.eu.com

Sarkozy continues to dizzy French politics

In recent weeks Nicolas Sarkozy has worried free marketeers for his efforts to protect the French car industry.  The Wall Street Journal accused the French President of "egregious patriotisme économique" after warning Peugeot Citreon and Renault to keep car plants out of the Czech Republic.  He has also backed away from school reforms after fearing student unrest.

Once thought to be more Eurosceptic he has become an ardent supporter of the Union - defending the Lisbon process from his critics.  His Europeanism hasn't stopped him from serious fallouts with Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic.  Neither has it stopped him from supporting a much warmer French-American relationship and he aims for France to soon rejoin NATO as a full member. 

One of Sarkozy's political gifts has been to defy simple political categorisation and steal the best ideas from his political opponents.  This was Newsweek's take on President Sarkozy's 'volontarisme':

"Despite a long career brandishing conservative Gaullist credentials, his most important political credo is what the French call volontarisme, his faith in the ability to influence events through sheer willpower. To that end, he adopts whichever policies look like they'll work, and whichever put him out front. On his way to the presidency, Sarkozy proved himself a genius at co-opting the most popular political ideas of his potential opponents. As interior minister, he proved he could exploit fear of immigrants and a widespread sense of public insecurity just as effectively as the far-right National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen—long a spoiler in French politics—and without the heavy taint of anti-Semitism that accrued to the National Front. On the left, he brought Socialist stars like Bernard Kouchner into his cabinet. Sarkozy also supported the bid of former Socialist economy minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a potential presidential contender himself, to be appointed as head of the International Monetary Fund."

The same Newsweek article - written by Christopher Dickey and Tracy McNicoll - notes the powers of Sarkozy: "If there is a power in heaven that could call Sarkozy to account, there's certainly none in the French Parliament."  They note the disarray of both the Socialist opposition and of the Far Right and also the fact that he controls 55% of votes in the national parliament.  The Newsweek feature also notes his attempts to influence the French media:

"More disturbing still is the way Sarkozy tries to manipulate France's mainstream media, the last embattled bastion of his critics. As a government minister, his personal calls to reporters who had dared to disrespect him were legendary. His close friendships with media bosses are also well known. How much self-censorship Sarkozy's influence has elicited is unknowable, but, to take one silly example, the weekly picture magazine Paris Match airbrushed away Sarkozy's love handles when he was photographed in a swimsuit on his first summer vacation as president. Now, rather more seriously, Sarkozy is rewriting the laws governing broadcast media in France: the head of the government networks known as France Télévisions will now be named by the president. And, despite France's massive and worsening public deficit, Sarkozy is seeing through a promise he made earlier this year to phase out advertising from public television. Questions have been raised about how much ad revenue he's going to be putting in the hands of private networks owned by his political allies."

Sarkozy intends to use his power.  His language on the economic crisis is stark: "This crisis, we must face up to it without fail. This crisis, it must not incite us to hold back; it must incite us to act, to act fast, and to act forcefully."  No longer distracted by being President of the EU Council of Ministers - a role he enjoyed and pursued with passion - his energies are now refocused on France.  It's difficult to guess where those energies will lead France.

Is Poland the EU's 'new Britain' (or the 'new Ireland')?

Nicolas Sarkozy is pursuing an ambitious agenda at today's EU summit as Mark Mardell blogs.

At the heart of this summit though is the proposed deal on climate change. Leading the 'awkward squad' is Poland. Poland's Donald Tusk wants a combination of more time or/ and money to help Poland convert from coal.

A reporter on the BBC's Today programme, Jonny Diamond, asked if Poland was the EU's new Britain - the nation always holding out against EU policies?  It's certainly true that this is not the first time that this relatively recent EU entrant has threatened to block a Union-wide deal.  Poland also had eleventh hour objections to the Lisbon Treaty.

But Poland may be more like Ireland than Britain. Less notable for being the odd one out and more notable for its success at winning a large share of EU subsidies.  Already due to receive £57bn over the next seven years for infrastructure improvements, Reuters is reporting that a new €40 to €50 billion "solidarity fund" (where solidarity = subsidy) might be Tusk's price for agreeing to Sarkozy's 20/20/20 pact.

> Roger Helmer MEP predicts a costly deal from the UN summit in Poznan: "Cutting through the jargon, the probable deal seems to be this.  The Eastern accession countries of the EU will blackmail France, and Germany, and Britain, into transferring vast sums in exchange for their agreement.  Then the developing countries will blackmail the developed countries of the West into transferring even vaster sums to secure their agreement.  For us, it’s a double whammy — the huge damage that any “Son of Kyoto” would do in its own right, plus the costs of bribing other countries to join in (or at least to save our faces by pretending to join in)."

> FT writers profile the variety of challenges facing Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform party.

Eastern Europe wins concessions from Sarkozy on coal-fired power stations

French President Nicolas Sarkozy - currently President of the EU - failed to win agreement from Central and Eastern European nations for support for EU-wide action on climate change although certain concessions have brought the possibility of agreement closer.

"The EU," reports AFP, "has set a triple "20" objective for 2020: slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% compared to 1990, increasing renewable energy's share of the market to 20%, and improving energy efficiency by 20%."

Most opposition to the pact is coming from Poland and Italy.  Poland is 94% dependent on coal-fired energy and is now confident of extended exemptions from the EU pact.

Italy's Silvio Berlusconi is the other main barrier to action.  His environment minister issued the following statement earlier this week:

"We think the package is a mistake. As it stands, it penalises our industry, increases costs for citizens, threatens jobs and makes Italy poorer." 

Disagreement within Europe coincides with growing restlessness in other parts of the world.  "There is no chance whatsoever that any developing country will agree to that proposal," Marthinus Van Schalkwyk, South Africa's environment minister, said in an interview in London. "None of the developing countries -- all of us have said that up front -- are willing to commit to specific targets."  The Sydney Morning Herald also reports that Kevin Rudd's government, once a leading enthusiast for action on climate change, is "back-pedalling".

The frontbenches of Britain's political parties support the EU climate pact but a number of Conservative Party backbenchers are increasingly vociferous in raising their concerns.

Shameless!

Hat-tip: Andrew Sullivan.

Sarkozy embraces state intervention and protectionism

Nicolas Sarkozy has this month been calling for European governments to follow the bailouts of banks by taking ownership stakes in other industries, such as the motor industry. The French President has been anything but evasive in the language he uses to describe the protectionism and state control he is advocating: "We can't be naive, we must protect our industry".

Although some free marketeers were encouraged by President Sarkozy's charisma both since and prior to his election last year, he has been a consistent and vocal opponent of what he appears to view as an exclusively Anglo-Saxon liberal economic model. His acceptance of and advocacy of a high degree of state control of the economy is expressed most often in his protectionism.  Tory MEP Martin Callanan warned about this tendency some time ago.

President Sarkozy must hope that the ongoing economic crisis provides an unusual opportunity for new thinkers (and indeed some very old and hitherto mostly discredited thinkers) to be heard and heeded. But centre right leaders around the world should be exceptionally cautious about doing so. Bad policy can do far more harm than the occasional storm in financial markets.

While 1929 is so often cited as if it were a counterexample, the Great Depression provides perhaps the strongest demonstration of this point. The stock market crash of October 1929 was not *that* bad - one reason to be unimpressed by comparisons between share prices (or whatever) in 1929 and share prices today. Misguided policy in 1930, in 1931 and beyond - not what happened on Wall Street in 1929 - were key to the Great Depression. Government activity, including tariffs restricting trade and a massive decline in the money supply (and arguably the New Deal and public works schemes too) were what made 1929 the prelude to a Great Depression. Governments around the world, like Reagan's and Thatcher's, responded very differently when the stock market crashed to a similar extent in October 1987 - and within two years even share prices had recovered completely.

The sort of command economy and protectionist measures now being advocated by President Sarkozy may well get their strongest hearing right after a market crash. But they are are arguably the surest way to achieve the very thing - sustained recession - that they are introduced to head off.

European Right divides over Brussels' climate change plan

In recent days Italy and Poland had both signalled unhappiness that the EU was pressing ahead with ambitious climate change targets at a time of grave economic difficulty.

Silvio Berlusconi has said "Our businesses are in absolutely no position at the moment to absorb the costs of the regulations that have been proposed" while Poland's PM Donald Tusk said: “We don’t say to the French that they have to close down their nuclear power industry and build windmills, and nobody can tell us the equivalent.”

French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned against retreat, however, and EU president, José Manuel Barroso came to his support: "We're not going to let up in the battle against climate change and there's no question of picking between the financial crisis and climate change. The two go together."

The Guardian reports that "Eastern European countries, ex-communist states, want the richer nations in western Europe to carry more of the cost of cutting emissions and protection for their industries which are heavily dependent on fossil fuels, notably coal. Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia wanted at one point to scrap the December deadline."

The position of the British Tories is that there is no tension between climate change action and economic interests.  Greg Clark MP set out his party's position in the House of Commons yesterday:

"Conservative Members agree that the choice between ambitious and progressive action on carbon reduction and a successful, powerful economy is, in fact, not a choice at all—they are one and the same. Without decisive action, there is a risk that climate change will leach away huge resources from this country and every other nation on earth. The economic events of recent days have proved that catastrophic risk must be acted on rather than wished away."

But do EU announcements on climate change have any real currency?  Many observers are sceptical of any targets announced by EU governments.  The Daily Telegraph recorded Labour's own lamentable record in a leading article today:

"There is a lot of ministerial hot air about these targets; new ones are announced long before it is apparent whether existing ones are realistic or achievable. In 1997, the Government said it was going to "reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 20 per cent on 1990 levels by 2010". By 2003 this had become an aspiration to "move towards a 20 per cent reduction…" By 2005, it was saying that "emissions of all greenhouse gases would be around 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010". In 2006 a target was set for "all new homes to be zero carbon within a decade" but in the first month of 2008, just three zero carbon homes were built. The Government then pledged to reduce carbon dioxide by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050, which Mr Miliband has now said should rise to 80 per cent in line with a recommendation delivered just last week by the Government-appointed Climate Change Committee. When the 60 per cent target was first recommended by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, it implicitly included emissions from aviation. But Mr Miliband now says aviation and shipping will be excluded, though specific proposals for achieving this tougher target have still to be published."

UK Tories deepen relations with centre right parties in Europe

David Cameron met Angela Merkel yesterday (library photograph) in the latest example of the increasing cooperation between UK Tories and continental, centre right parties.

The FT reports that the UK Tory leader and German Chancellor agreed to resist protectionism as a response to international economic turmoil.  The newspaper also suggests that despite differences on the EPP and Lisbon, Mrs Merkel has unfrozen relations with Mr Cameron since it has become increasingly likely that he'll be Britain's next Prime Minister:

"Ms Merkel’s allies say she remains suspicious of Mr Cameron’s intentions in Europe and fear that he could lead Britain into isolation, but she is said to admire his “green conservative” outlook and is intrigued by the way he has revived his party."

Beneath the high profile meetings between the party leaders are a number of formal joint working groups (formally established last September) with Tory MPs sat on policy committees with representatives of the German CDU and French UMP.

Nicolas Sarkozy begins his economic reform programme

In London's Times, Rosemary Righter overviews Nicolas Sarkozy's economic reform programme:

"In a few weeks this summer, in volley after legislative volley, he has taken aim at some of the most sacred cows in French social and economic life. If he keeps up this pace, he will indeed change the face of France.

The keystone is a law making it easier to set up in business, cutting red tape, freeing up the commercial sector by allowing retailers to negotiate directly with suppliers - which, incredibly, French law proscribed - and creating an independent competition authority. More flexible job contracts have been introduced to free up the labour market, and benefits curbed for jobseekers who reject more than two “reasonable” offers of work.

To tackle the huge pensions deficit, retirement age is to be raised by a year - explosive in a country where successive governments failed even to abolish unfair pension privileges for public sector workers. Sarkozy succeeded only after toughing out a nine-day transport strike. He has risked student mayhem by allowing universities more freedom not just to raise private research capital, but to choose which students to admit. He has even announced the privatisation of the ports, risking a French rerun of the British dock strikes. Sarkozy has also taken aim at the structure of the State. He is (cautiously) trimming the bureaucracy and (boldly) overhauling the military by axeing bases, cutting its strength by a fifth and shifting spending from support services to the front line - an open challenge to hardcore Gaullists suspicious of their President's rapprochement with America.

Then, last week, in a High Noon confrontation at the National Assembly he won by a single (defecting Socialist) vote constitutional reforms that limit the presidency to two consecutive terms and give parliament additional powers. Rubbing salt in the Socialists' wounds, parliament reformed the 35-hour week, effectively burying it by allowing firms to negotiate their own working-week ceilings. That may seem modest, even timid; but the implications are anything but. It strikes a sideways blow at the core of union power in France: the unions' lock grip on industry-wide collective bargaining."