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Australia's new Liberal leader easily passes first elections test

Just days after Tony Abbott became leader of Australia's centre right opposition in controversial circumstances, his party has won two federal by-elections, caused by the retirement of two senior members of his own party. The Sydney Morning Herald described the twin victories as "comfortable":

"Just days after Mr Abbott won the Liberal leadership from Malcolm Turnbull, the party coasted to victory in the Melbourne seat of Higgins, vacated by former treasurer Peter Costello, and the north Sydney electorate of Bradfield, formerly held by Brendan Nelson. The solid performance surprised many who thought the Liberals might suffer a backlash due to Mr Abbott's decision to overhaul the party's climate changing policy, withdrawing support for the introduction of an emissions trading scheme (ETS), which is favoured by Labor."

The Age (another left-leaning newspaper) concluded that Tony Abbott's "opposition to Labor's emissions trading scheme has support in the conservative heartland."

The Australian's Editor-at-Large Paul Kelly profiles the unpredictable 'Abbot effect' here:

"This week Tony Abbott smashed the mould of Australian politics. With the opposition divided and behind, he is forcing Kevin Rudd to an election on climate change, the issue that is supposedly owned by the Labor Party. This is either brilliance or sheer folly. Abbott does not accept the orthodoxies that have governed politics during the Rudd ascendancy, and this makes him dangerous for both Labor and Liberal. Abbott is an unpredictable and elemental force who defies the modern political rule book. No adviser can tell Abbott what to say or how to say it. After being elected Liberal leader by surprise, Abbott spent the rest of week throwing political grenades -- supporting individual workplace contracts, backing a nuclear power debate and killing the emissions trading scheme -- while his colleagues held their breath wondering how the public would react."

How the debate over emissions trading has helped create turmoil for the Australian Liberal Party

Patrick Cusworth is a public affairs consultant and a member of Hornsey and Wood Green Conservative Association.  He supported the Australian Liberal Party during the Queensland State elections in March 2009.

The Australian Liberal Party has elected Tony Abbott as its new leader, following a public loss of confidence in Malcolm Turnbull.  Following a packed Canberra meeting of Liberal MPs, Abbott beat Turnbull by 42 votes to 41 after the initial favourite, shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, was eliminated in the first round of voting.  Known as both a social and economic conservative, the London-born Mr Abbott becomes the Liberal’s third leader since the 2007 federal election defeat to the Australian Labor Party, after Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson last September.

Mr Turnbull, who at the beginning of the year was forced to endure ongoing threats of a challenge from former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello, said he was "naturally disappointed” by the result, and that there would now be a "pretty dramatic change in policy" within the Liberal Party.  In particular, the issue of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is certain to prove a vital one in the build-up to Australia’s next federal election (which many have suggested could be called earlier than initially expected, despite the Prime Minister’s denials). 

Mr Abbott has long been an outspoken critic of Turnbull’s decision to support Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's proposed legislation, with Turnbull appearing to be paying the price for failing to demonstrate sufficient concern for the potential economic impact of the scheme; that was despite securing amendments to the legislation which he claimed would have assisted farmers as well as saved “tens of thousands of jobs” and as much as $200 billion of investment.

Australian Liberals in meltdown after Turnbull is ousted by Tony Abbott

Tony Abbott is one of the most conservative members of the Liberal Party, socially and economically. He is a fierce opponent of the Liberal Party's deal with Kevin Rudd on climate change. The Liberals have now had four leaders in two years. Anyone want to bet that it won't soon be five?

The Sydney Morning Herald reports.

A General Election is very likely soon. Rudd enjoys very high approval ratings and the Liberals have rarely been more divided.  Kevin Andrews MP, a Liberal critic of Turnbull, argues, however, that opposition to Rudd's green measures may give the Liberals a potent electoral issue.

Update: Speaking to a friend downunder he gave me this warning: "Climate change fundamentalism has wrecked our conservative coalition. Be careful it doesn't wreck yours."

Six frontbenchers quit Liberal frontbench in protest at Malcolm Turnbull's climate change deal with Kevin Rudd

The Sydney Morning Herald has the report:

"The Liberal Party is in turmoil tonight following the resignation of six front benchers, including Tony Abbott and Senator Nick Minchin, after they refused to back Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's position on the controversial emissions trading scheme. Liberal frontbenchers Sophie Mirabella, Senator Eric Abetz, Tony Smith and Stephen Parry have also quit their positions over the ETS, leaving Malcolm Turnbull's future as leader in doubt. In a press conference tonight Mr Turnbull said he respected his colleagues' decision but the issue was now one of integrity and it would be irresponsible for the party to not take action on climate change."

Yesterday Mr Turnbull survived a leadership challenge from Kevin Andrews MP but other Liberal MPs may yet challenge their leader if polls continue to point to a landslide defeat.

Australian Liberals being ripped apart by climate change issue

Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian Liberal Party leader since September last year when he ousted Brendan Nelson, is likely to face a leadership challenge of his own in the next 24 hours. Mr Turnbull has caused fury and division within his party after forcing the party to support the Labour government's amended emissions trading scheme - amended by Turnbull. Pasted below are some key commentaries:

Sydney Morning Herrald: "Malcolm Turnbull's leadership has been taken to the brink after his decision to put his job on the line over climate change backfired when he was rolled by the backbench. In extraordinary scenes last night, Mr Turnbull declared he wanted to cut a deal with Labor on the emissions tradings scheme and if anybody was opposed, they should move a motion and challenge him."

The Australian: "Malcolm Turnbull last night threatened to quit the Liberal leadership if his party did not back his assessment that a majority of the Coalition supported an emissions trading scheme deal he had struck with the Rudd government. The Liberal leader laid down his "my way or the highway" ultimatum and closed the partyroom meeting after anti-ETS Coalition MPs, led by Senate leader Nick Minchin, refused to accept his calculation that the meeting had supported the ETS deal. "I am the leader, I have made the call," Mr Turnbull said at a news conference later. "If people are unhappy with the leader they can take whatever steps they deem to be appropriate.""

The Age: "Mr Turnbull told a news conference last night: ''The Opposition has today saved tens of thousands of Australian jobs, protected vital industries and secured energy supplies by forcing significant substantial improvements to the Rudd Government's emissions trading scsheme''. He said the deal showed the Opposition was sincere in its commitment on climate change."

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Australian Prime Minister remains hugely popular in the latest polls. Kevin Rudd enjoys a 63% to 22% advantage over Mr Turnbull in terms of preferred Prime Minister rankings.

"The problem is not global warming but the ideology which uses or misuses it -- it has gradually turned into the most efficient vehicle for advocating extensive government intervention into all fields of life and for suppressing human freedom."

The Czech President was speaking in New York at a conference of climate change sceptics.  Talking about existing methods of energy generation he said: "If someone wilfully abandons the existing technologies before new and far better ones are invented, he will only block economic growth."

Mr Klaus also used his visit to America to warn against Barack Obama's current economic policy trajectory.  "The best thing to do right now would be to temporarily weaken, if not repeal," business regulations on labor, the environment, social issues and health, he said.  Janet Daley wants to import him to Britain.

Eastern Europe wins concessions from Sarkozy on coal-fired power stations

French President Nicolas Sarkozy - currently President of the EU - failed to win agreement from Central and Eastern European nations for support for EU-wide action on climate change although certain concessions have brought the possibility of agreement closer.

"The EU," reports AFP, "has set a triple "20" objective for 2020: slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% compared to 1990, increasing renewable energy's share of the market to 20%, and improving energy efficiency by 20%."

Most opposition to the pact is coming from Poland and Italy.  Poland is 94% dependent on coal-fired energy and is now confident of extended exemptions from the EU pact.

Italy's Silvio Berlusconi is the other main barrier to action.  His environment minister issued the following statement earlier this week:

"We think the package is a mistake. As it stands, it penalises our industry, increases costs for citizens, threatens jobs and makes Italy poorer." 

Disagreement within Europe coincides with growing restlessness in other parts of the world.  "There is no chance whatsoever that any developing country will agree to that proposal," Marthinus Van Schalkwyk, South Africa's environment minister, said in an interview in London. "None of the developing countries -- all of us have said that up front -- are willing to commit to specific targets."  The Sydney Morning Herald also reports that Kevin Rudd's government, once a leading enthusiast for action on climate change, is "back-pedalling".

The frontbenches of Britain's political parties support the EU climate pact but a number of Conservative Party backbenchers are increasingly vociferous in raising their concerns.

European Right divides over Brussels' climate change plan

In recent days Italy and Poland had both signalled unhappiness that the EU was pressing ahead with ambitious climate change targets at a time of grave economic difficulty.

Silvio Berlusconi has said "Our businesses are in absolutely no position at the moment to absorb the costs of the regulations that have been proposed" while Poland's PM Donald Tusk said: “We don’t say to the French that they have to close down their nuclear power industry and build windmills, and nobody can tell us the equivalent.”

French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned against retreat, however, and EU president, José Manuel Barroso came to his support: "We're not going to let up in the battle against climate change and there's no question of picking between the financial crisis and climate change. The two go together."

The Guardian reports that "Eastern European countries, ex-communist states, want the richer nations in western Europe to carry more of the cost of cutting emissions and protection for their industries which are heavily dependent on fossil fuels, notably coal. Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia wanted at one point to scrap the December deadline."

The position of the British Tories is that there is no tension between climate change action and economic interests.  Greg Clark MP set out his party's position in the House of Commons yesterday:

"Conservative Members agree that the choice between ambitious and progressive action on carbon reduction and a successful, powerful economy is, in fact, not a choice at all—they are one and the same. Without decisive action, there is a risk that climate change will leach away huge resources from this country and every other nation on earth. The economic events of recent days have proved that catastrophic risk must be acted on rather than wished away."

But do EU announcements on climate change have any real currency?  Many observers are sceptical of any targets announced by EU governments.  The Daily Telegraph recorded Labour's own lamentable record in a leading article today:

"There is a lot of ministerial hot air about these targets; new ones are announced long before it is apparent whether existing ones are realistic or achievable. In 1997, the Government said it was going to "reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 20 per cent on 1990 levels by 2010". By 2003 this had become an aspiration to "move towards a 20 per cent reduction…" By 2005, it was saying that "emissions of all greenhouse gases would be around 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010". In 2006 a target was set for "all new homes to be zero carbon within a decade" but in the first month of 2008, just three zero carbon homes were built. The Government then pledged to reduce carbon dioxide by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050, which Mr Miliband has now said should rise to 80 per cent in line with a recommendation delivered just last week by the Government-appointed Climate Change Committee. When the 60 per cent target was first recommended by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, it implicitly included emissions from aviation. But Mr Miliband now says aviation and shipping will be excluded, though specific proposals for achieving this tougher target have still to be published."

The Australian Liberals and climate change policy

Tom Switzer, former adviser to Australian Liberal leader Brendan Nelson, has written for The Spectator's new Australia blog about the tensions within his party about green policies:

"Whereas once both leaders [Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull] were calling on Australians to pay higher energy prices to save the planet, they now warn of tougher economic times as the financial crisis enters a new and dangerous phase. Whereas once Australians wanted to do their bit to cut the gases our leaders claim cause global warming, we now panic about more visceral things like protecting their jobs, mortgages and superannuation. Whereas once Australians were cheering on the Prime Minister to lead the world on the environment, we now fear we’ll succumb to the financial contagion wreaking havoc all over the world. And whereas once the political debate was over co-ordinated global action to tackle global warming, it’s now over co-ordinated global action to stabilise the international financial system."

Read the full post here.

CanCons hit Liberals' carbon tax plans again and again and again

Earlier this week ConservativeHome reported that the UK Conservatives plan to suspend their plans for "replacement taxes" - higher green taxes that will be used to finance lower taxes on families (if they are not suspended they will be diluted to the point of inoffensiveness).  They may have been studying the Canadian experience where the opposition Liberal Party's plans for a carbon tax have been a massive electoral weapon in the Canadian Conservatives' favour. Polling shows that voters believe that governments will levy the higher green taxes but are unconvinced that there will be commensurate reductions. Here is a selection of the literature that the CanCons are deploying (click on any of the graphics to enlarge them - the guy in the photo is Liberal leader Stephane Dion)...

Stephen Harper exploits green tax plans of Canadian Liberals

In a speech yesterday setting out his accomplishments as Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper noted that his was now the longest-serving minority government in his country's history.

The main point of his speech was to launch a strong attack on opposition leader Stephane Dion's plans for a carbon tax, a tax rise that was masquerading as environmentalism, Mr Harper said.  Dion protests that the carbon tax will be offset by tax reductions elsewhere but the CanCons strongly believe that while the public are ready to believe a politician when he/ she says they will raise taxes, they are suspicious of any promise to cut taxation.

The Canadian Conservatives have a website dedicated to attacking the plans that includes a short history of broken promises of offsetting or replacement taxes.  The website's design will be interesting to conservative campaigners across the world.

Stephane Dion named his dog Kyoto and a bright spark started a blog in the dog's honour.

Czech President Vaclav Klaus compares climate change "hysteria" to Soviet era propaganda