international

Does the "pussy-footing" right lack the confidence of the left?

The latest Canadian opinion polls suggest that Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government enjoys a solid lead over the opposition parties. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff's attempt to force an early election look doomed to failure - and his own position as his party's leader is now in jeopardy - with a clear majority of Canadians opposing another vote. Canada elected a second minority Conservative government just one year ago. The largely left-wing opposition parties attempted to remove Stephen Harper almost immediately but he is proving to be the great survivor of Canadian politics.

Writing for the National Post, however, George Jonas regrets that Mr Harper has never moved beyond "pussyfoot conservatism". The article is now more than a month old but Jonas says right-wing leaders that govern with confidence are rare things - particularly in a left-leaning nation like Canada:

"Would a majority make [Stephen Harper] govern more like a true blue Tory, perhaps even a Tory with a libertarian tinge? Would he champion ideas and policies of the kind he championed once as head of the National Citizens Coalition? Would he try to stem the tide of the regulatory state? Would he buck interventionist trends in business, environment, education and free speech? Would he reform, or even abolish, human rights commissions? Nix the gun registry? Help cool the globe without freezing the economy? Make sure "universal" in healthcare doesn't translate into "universally unavailable"?

What would it take for a Conservative government to feel sufficiently mandated to pursue conservative policies? Would a majority do it? I doubt it -- not if past performance is an indication...

Some centre-right leaders in the United Kingdom and the United States haven't been as vulnerable to the syndrome of pussyfoot-conservatism as Canada's centre-right leaders. But even the least wobbly, Margaret Thatcher, say, and Ronald Reagan, weren't entirely impervious to it. With all their self-confidence and charisma, Thatcher and Reagan never radiated that cocksure, hubristic aura of self-righteous intellectual and moral conceit that's the hallmark of centre-left leaders from Pierre Elliott Trudeau to Barack Obama.

Simply put, the centre-left feels entitled to govern; the centre-right doesn't."

Read the full piece.

Increased support for Canada's Conservatives cools election speculation

A new opinion poll puts Canada's minority Conservative government 39% to 28% ahead of the opposition Liberals.  This Conservative lead is the reverse of the position before the summer recess when the Liberals enjoyed a narrow lead.  That lead had prompted renewed speculation that Canada would be forced to go to the polls again.  Another poll, however, suggests a statistical dead heat between the two parties and The Globe and Mail reports that Liberals are still pondering a November election.

Canada has been in electoral deadlock for the last few years. It has twice elected minority conservative administrations although most Canadians have voted for left-leaning parties.  The left-wing parties cannot unite but neither can they tolerate the fact that Stephen Harper is Prime Minister - re-elected less than a year ago with an increased number of seats.

Mr Harper has proved a shrewd tactician - constantly going the extra mile to keep in office.  This was most in evidence at the start of the year when he embraced a significant fiscal stimulus package in order to thwart an attempt by the opposition parties to oust him.  This tactical flexibility has angered many hard core conservatives who remember Mr Harper as an ideologue from his early days on the national stage.  Libertarians are particularly unhappy.   

The National Post of Canada notes that an election held now would be costly and would be unlikely to change the balance of power in the Ottawa Parliament: "Only the leaders of the small opposition parties -- and the power-hungry elements among the Liberals -- are hot for a national vote. But a vote now would cost taxpayers about $300-million and is unlikely to produce a Parliament much different from the current one."

The Conservatives are faced with a much stronger opposition leader than at the last election.  The current Liberal leader is Michael Ignatieff.  Mr Ignatieff will be remembered by many Britons as a regular contributor to left wing newspapers in Britain during the 1980s.  He also spent a considerable amount of time in the USA during recent years.  The fact that he has been abroad so much has been the subject of a Conservative campaign against him.  The Conservatives' 'Just Visiting' website paints Mr Ignatieff has insufficiently committed to Canada.  These videos summarise the attack:

Stephen Harper has recently rejigged his core team. The National Post highlights the appointment of John Williamson as his new communications director.

Stephen Harper: There's more to conservatism than freedom

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper used a speech to 300 conservative movement activists to argue that private enterprise cannot be the sum of conservatism.

Markets can fail: "We are in a global recession principally - and we have to face this - because a lot of people on Wall Street, because of a lot of people in the private sector more generally - homeowners or consumers - pushed or bought into a very unconservative idea: That they could live beyond their means."

Regulators can't take all the blame for current economic difficulties: "Regulators may have failed to prevent it but, in the end, it was a failure of the private sector to live according to the values we as conservatives know to be true... Conservatives don't believe big government - the welfare state - is the solution to all problems. We didn't believe it before the recession. We're not about to start believing it now. But neither can conservatives believe today that the marketplace - that which I call Wall Street - is the solution to all problems."

The state can play a vital role in getting the economy going again: "We are, as Conservatives, in response to massive failure in the marketplace, are using the public role of government to act. When billions, maybe trillions of private capital, is sitting on the sidelines because of fear, pessimism and panic, the government must step in to restore confidence, protect citizens and to stimulate the economy,"

Faith and family stand alongside freedom as conservative beliefs: "Faith in all its forms teaches . . . that there is a right and wrong beyond mere opinion or desire. Most importantly, it teaches us that freedom is not an end in itself, that how freedom is exercised matters as much as freedom itself."

Quotes taken from Canada's National Post.

Stephen Harper survives as Canadian Prime Minister after introducing large stimulus plan

Six weeks ago Canada's Prime Minister was fighting for his political life as his minority government faced being no-confidenced by an unexpected coming together of the nation's left-wing parties.  He won some time after the Governor-General prorogued Parliament and, as expected, the pressure of public opinion unpicked the coalition.

The coalition finally broke apart yesterday as the new Canadian Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff, agreed (with conditions) to support Stephen Harper's Can$40bn fiscal stimulus plan.  Explaining his decision to abandon the coalition he said: “Canadians don't want another election, and they're tired of political games. They have waited too long for action on the economy for us to fail them now because of partisan interest.”  Ignatieff then received strong attacks from "livid" partners of the now finished coalition, ushering in the possibility of deeper Balkanisation of Canada's Left.

Not all on the Right are happy though.  Andrew Coyne proclaimed the death of conservatism in Canada:

"Say what you like about the Tories: they don’t do things by halves. When they spend, they spend. When they go into debt, they do it $100-billion at a time. And when they decide to put an end to conservatism in Canada — as a philosophy, as a movement—they go out with a bang."

Canada's Conservatives join the rush to fiscal stimulus

Following Angela Merkel's part conversion to a deficit-funded fiscal stimulus, Canada's Conservatives are now increasing borrowing in order to pay for economy-boosting tax cuts and higher spending.  This leaves Britain's Tories pretty isolated on the world stage with their insistence on fiscal conservatism; an insistence that ConservativeHome.com supports.  Merkel and Canada's Harper lead minority administrations that require compromise but it is notable that US Republicans are also supportive of large parts of Obama's mega stimulus.

Opinion polls set to kill opposition parties' attempt to oust Stephen Harper

Yesterday we noted that Stephen Harper had six weeks to keep his job as Prime Minister and, more significantly, the rag-bag coalition that wants to oust him has six weeks to avoid splintering apart.

Providing Mr Harper comes forward with a popular budget he must be increasingly hopeful.

Andrew Coyne blogs that Canadian public opinion is clearly on his side:

"Two polls out today show that the coalition has backfired on its two main participants — hugely. Ekos has the Tories ahead by twenty points, 44-24, while Ipsos Reid puts the margin at an astounding 46-23. This is after the Tories had supposedly disgraced themselves by the “provocation” of cutting the political parties off the public teat, and by failing to provide adequate “stimulus.” Ipsos numbers show, further, that 60% of the public opposes the coalition, 62% are “angry” with it for trying to take power, while 68% support the Governor General’s decision. The Grits [the Canadian Liberals] can read the numbers as well as I can. There is no way they will return to this well."

Harper wins six weeks to keep Canada's premiership

The Governor-General has today granted Stephen Harper's wish to prorogue parliament for six weeks.

In those six weeks he must hope that three things happen:

1. His government puts together a budgetary package that commands enough public confidence to ensure that the public is happy for him to stay in office;
2. That the Conservatives' battle for 'hearts and minds' leads public opinion against the idea of a coalition involving Quebec separatists taking control of Canada's government;
3. That tensions between the Liberals, far-left NDP and Quebec nationalists tear the prospective coalition apart.

On (3) there are already numerous rumblings of discontent within the Liberal Party about their outgoing leader - Stephane Dion - forming such a controversial coalition and without the full agreement of the candidates to succeed him.  The National Post's Steve Janke previews the coalition's 'six week trial of fire'.  Andrew Coyne notes the Liberal MPs who are already distancing themselves from Dion's coalition plans.  The very different performances of Harper and Dion in their televised addresses to the nation have given Canadian Conservatives fresh hope.

Canadian Conservatives launch 'hearts and minds' campaign to stay in power

In a five minute address to Canada, Stephen Harper attacks backroom deals with separatists that could remove his minority Conservative government from office within days:

Liberal leader Dion, who intends to become Prime Minister if Mr Harper loses a parliamentary confidence vote, resigned as Liberal leader after leading his party to its worst election result in modern times, just six weeks ago.  Although he will be replaced as Liberal leader once the contest now underway concludes, he still hopes to be an interim Prime Minister.  He has a record of incompetence and the latest example is recorded by the Globe and Mail, within an article about internal dissent towards him and the coalition pact:

"Adding to the discomfort with his leadership was the fact that last night Mr. Dion and his team couldn't even get his televised national address – a speech intended to counter Mr. Harper's appeal – to TV networks on time. The production values of the tape were also poor, with Mr. Dion out of focus at times. It appeared his head was emerging from the shelf behind him."

The leading contender for the Liberal leadership, Michael Ignatieff, is unlikely to take part in the coalition cabinet - should it be formed.  Mr Dion (pictured) is insisting that his coalition plan is entirely legitimate:

"The Harper Conservatives have lost the confidence of the majority of members of the House of Commons. In our democracy, in our parliamentary system, in our Constitution, this means that they have lost the right to govern."

The Canadian Conservatives are hitting the airwaves with radio and TV ads that make the same message as Mr Harper's five minute address:

Stephen Harper is hoping to avoid a confidence vote due next Monday (8th December) and is asking the Governor-General to prorogue parliament until later in January, during which time he will prepare a new budget and hope his opponents' coalition deal will start to fall apart.

Canada's Left seeks to unite to topple Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government

Canada's two main left-wing parties - the NDP and Liberals - are reportedly close to agreeing a pact that would see them rule Canada, rather than the minority Conservative government led by Stephen Harper.

Despite the fact that the Liberals are in the middle of a leadership race, recent moves by Prime Minister Harper have ignited a desire amongst many Liberals and the NDP to topple the government in a confidence vote, now timetabled for 8th December.

Three decisions by Harper's Conservatives have angered the Left:

• The proposal to end state funding of political parties;
• A ban on civil service strikes;
• Caution about a fiscal stimulus - at least until Barack Obama's intentions have become clear because of huge US-Canadian economic integration.

The first two proposals have now been withdrawn and the Conservatives are moving quickly to offer an economic stimulus plan.

A grand coalition of the Left had been ruled out.  Not only has the Liberal Party been fractious under Stephane Dion's troubled leadership but the NDP includes far-Left views and any coalition deal acceptable to the NDP base may make it difficult for the Liberals to then appeal to vital, centrist voters.  The extraordinary economic times have, however, made NDP views on industrial intervention and heavier government infrastructure spending more politically acceptable.  The Liberals and NDP could not govern alone.  They - like the Canadian Conservatives - would depend upon votes from the separatist MPs of Quebec.  Some reports, however, suggest strong opposition to any coalition from Liberal leadership hopeful, Michael Ignatieff.

To the concern of business leaders who hate uncertainty, four options now await Canada:

1. A Liberal-led government, in coalition with the NDP, with the Liberals holding three-quarters of the Cabinet posts;
2. Another election - just six weeks after the last - if the Governor-General cannot see stability emerging from the present parliament;
3. A wounded Stephen Harper carrying on but in a greater spirit of bipartisanship;
4. And least likely, a new Conservative leader instead of Harper as the price for allowing the Conservatives to survive next week's confidence vote.

Few are in any doubt that the real reason for this crisis is the Conservative proposal to end the state's funding of political parties.  Most blame Mr Harper for igniting the dispute but Andrew Coyne blames the Left:

"Faced with the unreasonable and extreme proposal that they raise funds in the same way as the Conservatives have been doing for years — by asking people for their money, rather than taking it from them — they really had no alternative but to seize power. What on earth were they supposed to do? Revamp their moribund fund-raising organizations? Find a message and a leader capable of motivating large numbers of Canadians to click the “donate” button on their websites? Get off their collective duffs? What were the Tories thinking?  No. No, the sensible, restrained, pragmatic thing to do when threatened with the loss of subsidy is to take down the government. The sober, reasonable, moderate thing to do in this time of economic uncertainty is to provoke a constitutional crisis — to cobble together a coalition without a prime minister or a program, propped up by a separatist party, and demand the governor general call upon it to form a new government, replacing the old one we just elected. It’s been six weeks, after all."

Canadian Conservatives say spending restraint should begin with political parties

Canada's Globe and Mail is reporting that the nation's minority Conservative government is proposing to end taxpayers' $27m subsidy of political parties as part of a series of austerity measures.

Each Canadian political party receives Can$1.95pa for every vote that they received at the last election.  The subsidy was introduced a few years ago as part of a compensation package for parties agreeing not to take money from corporations and trade unions.

Although the subsidy most benefits the CanCons (as the largest party) they also need it least - being much more successful than the left-wing opposition parties at being able to raise small amounts of money from lots of grassroots Canadians.  The National Post:

"The Conservatives will characterize the cuts as belt-tightening that politicians must do to set an example for the rest of the country, but it will have a disproportionate effect on each party. For the Conservatives, for example, the public subsidy accounted for just 35% of their revenue in the 12-month period ending Sept. 30. But the subsidy accounted for about two thirds of the revenue of the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal Party."

The CanCons take a Thatcherite view of funding decisions; controversially defunding 'fringe arts groups' before the last election.

At least Conservatives have won one North American election

Tim Montgomerie writes:

Fifteen years ago the Canadian Conservatives were reduced to just two seats. The Right then splintered and spent more than a decade in the wilderness.  Two years ago it managed to form a minority government but it was said that it was more of a defeat for the ruling Liberals (who had been engulfed by a corruption scandal) rather than a win for the Conservatives.  The fact that the CanCons retained minority status last night - and won five 16 extra seats* (12 short of a majority) - has to be seen in that historical context (and the fact that Canada is a relatively left-liberal country).   

Stephen Harper faces a very divided opposition.  Canada's Left is at least as divided as the Right was in its wilderness years.  The Liberals, Canada's opposition, slumped to their worst modern-day defeat while support grew for the further-to-the-left NDP and Greens.  The Liberals must now fear a 'German situation' where the main left party  -the Realos - bleeds to Fundis.  Losing more than twenty seats the Liberals suffered most from the weaknesses of their leader Stéphane Dion and from a very unpopular commitment to raise green taxes.  It was unpopular during better economic times but became a serious liability once the economic crisis grew.

Stephen Harper now has the opportunity to deliver his programme for government - a programme that included a Can$50bn programme of corporate tax cuts.

Although he heads a minority government Mr Harper will probably be safe for at least 18 months.  The Liberals will almost certainly dump Stéphane Dion as their leader and that will be a very consuming and, more significantly, expensive process.  Already financially stressed the Liberals won't be able to afford another election any time soon.

It's worth adding some qualifications to the above assessment, however.  When Stephen Harper called the election he had reasonable hopes of winning a majority and for the first half of the campaign it looked likely that he would succeed in that ambition.  The CanCons reached the critical 40% mark in a number of opinion polls but the economic crisis then started to dominate the news agenda.  Centre right parties across the world suffered and some perceived gaffes by Mr Harper eroded his opinion poll position.

It also has to be said that an electoral gift like Stéphane Dion doesn't come along very often.  Dion's likeliest successors as Liberal leaders may struggle to unite their own party - left alone the wider Left - but neither suffer from Dion's inability to communicate in a populist way.  Dion's TV interview during which he couldn't understand an interviewer's simple question cost his party crucial votes in the campaign's final days.

Part of Harper's problem remains a lack of warmth.  His own staffers complain about his mean manner although they respect his overall intellect and strategic wisdom.  Attempts to present him as 'more human' were described as 'sweatering up'.  Mr Harper was put on TV wearing a sweater addressing 'softer' issues.

At Canada's High Commission in London this morning Martin Kettle of The Guardian wondered if Harper's victory was good news for incumbents.  The answer has to be 'no' if Mr Kettle means Mr Brown.  There is a big difference between an incumbent of two years (the Canadian Conservatives) and Gordon Brown (representing a governing party that has been in office for more than a decade).

We have already refered to the green taxes phenomenon.  The UK Tories who have embraced 'replacement taxes' need to study the Canadian experience carefully.  ConservativeHome doesn't expect the Tory green taxes to be abandoned completely - largely for face-saving reasons - but they will probably be diluted to meaninglessness.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan remain politically costly to their political supporters.  Canadian troops have fought bravely in Afghanistan but there has been much political cost to Mr Harper from the commitment and he has been forced to promise an end to combat operations by 2011.  CanCon policy on arts funding and the Afghan campaign prevented Mr Harper from breaking the Bloc Québécois.  The persistence of the BQ - with fifty seats - may mean Canada can expect minority governments for some time to come.

There are also a number of campaigning lessons for other parties to draw.  The CanCons used sophisticated systems for the distribution of literature and phone calling.  An already close BritTory-CanCon-AusLib relationship will ensure full exchange of lessons.

Final word: Both Stephen Harper and John Howard lack the 'X-factor' that David Cameron has brought to British Conservatism.  Mr Cameron's social reform message remains the biggest idea on the international Right.  It has three advantages:

(1) Social reform is the morally right thing to do for the millions let down by state poverty-fighting efforts.
(2) Only a stronger society will produce a sustainably smaller state.
(3) It connects conservatives with the growing number of 'values voters' who want to vote for a party that isn't just good for them but also good for their neighbour.

As Stephen Harper looks for that majority he should be studying what David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith are doing in Britain.

* 16 more seats from dissolution and 19 from the last election.

Canadian Conservatives make gains but fall short of majority

More at the National Post.

ConservativeInternational will provide its own reflections later.

Canada votes today

This video sums up Stephen Harper's closing message:

ConservativeInternational will be reflecting on the campaign tomorrow.  Final polls predict Conservative gains but not enough to win a majority.

Centre right parties squeezed by economic crisis

The economic crisis is hurting centre right parties as Dan Hannan predicted it would:

"In the current climate, what people see are fat-cat bankers being bailed out by hard-pressed taxpayers. And, instead of objecting to the bail-out, they object to the bankers and, by extension, to the free market culture they are thought to embody. The world over, Left-of-Centre parties are benefiting: Obama in the US, Brown here."

Since the onset of the crisis John McCain has fallen significantly behind Barack Obama.

The possibility of Prime Minister Stephen Harper winning a majority in Canada have also declined.  The opposition Liberals have moved up in recent polls.

It's not just an anti-incumbent effect either.

In the UK Labour's opinion poll disadvantage has been halved.  20% behind six weeks ago the Tory lead is now just 10%.  Labour now lead the Tories on some measures economic trust.

New Zealand's Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark has also stormed back in the polls.  With just four weeks to go until polling day one poll has the Nationals down 7% to 40.5% and the governing Labour Party up a point to 37.5%.  If repeated in November 8th's General Election that would produce a hung parliament.

CanCons hit Liberals' carbon tax plans again and again and again

Earlier this week ConservativeHome reported that the UK Conservatives plan to suspend their plans for "replacement taxes" - higher green taxes that will be used to finance lower taxes on families (if they are not suspended they will be diluted to the point of inoffensiveness).  They may have been studying the Canadian experience where the opposition Liberal Party's plans for a carbon tax have been a massive electoral weapon in the Canadian Conservatives' favour. Polling shows that voters believe that governments will levy the higher green taxes but are unconvinced that there will be commensurate reductions. Here is a selection of the literature that the CanCons are deploying (click on any of the graphics to enlarge them - the guy in the photo is Liberal leader Stephane Dion)...

Some Canadian election links

"One candidate believes in low taxes, gun rights and a strong national defense. The other has a dog named Kyoto and promises to levy a new carbon tax on industry. Any guess who is favored to win the Canadian federal election set for October 14?"

So began an editorial in The Wall Street Journal last week.  The full endorsement of Stephen Harper's Conservative Party is here.

UK Conservative MEP Dan Hannan has also backed Mr Harper, in an article on First Post:

"At a time when virtually every incumbent government is suffering from the recession, his Tories might increase their numbers. Not bad when you remember that, in 1993, Canada's Conservatives were left with just two MPs. So how did Harper do it? Well, he stopped fretting about the handful of Liberal-Tory floating voters, and went after the 40 per cent of Canadians who had stopped voting altogether. He shed his party's Establishment image, and embraced an anti-politician, decentralist, tax-cutting agenda. His party duly lost support in the posher parts of Toronto, but more than made it up in suburban and rural Canada - including Quebec. ("There are guys out there who listen to French talk radio and French country music", Harper's chief strategist told me). The result? Canada is becoming less like Scandinavia, more like the rest of the Anglosphere..."

The Globe and Mail notes how the Canadian Conservatives have put together a sophisticated database to help them reach voters:

"The Conservatives have enlisted neighbourhood leaders - sports team coaches, community activists - to report information on voters to the party's data collectors and introduce potential supporters to party campaigners, a technique known by its acronym of FRAN: Friends, Relatives, Acquaintances and Neighbours."

Read the article here.

This website is great for tracking Canadian polls and this link will take you to PlayPolitical's collection of Stephen Harper campaign ads.

Canadian Conservatives launch videos with "risk" as key message

Click here to see the series of ads that Canada's Conservatives are running in the election called yesterday.

The theme of Risk was one used by the Australian Liberals last year.  We must hope the much newer Canadian government will be more successful with their campaign - during more difficult economic times.

Canadian Conservatives present election as choice between strength and risky experiments

The 31 month-old minority Conservative government won approval from the Governor General today for an election on 14th October.  A number of factors underpin Conservative hopes of increasing their tally of seats:

• Although Stephen Harper is not a charismatic figure he has a comfortable lead as voters' choice for preferred prime minister. 50% see him as best PM, compared with just 19% for the main opposition leader, the Canadian Liberals' Stephane Dion.
• The unpopularity of Liberal plans to introduce a carbon tax - that, it is promised, will be used to reduce other taxes.  65% of Albertans, 45% of residents of Manitoba and Saskatchewan and 44% of British Columbians fear the proposed carbon tax "will likely wreak havoc" on the economy, according to Ipsos Reid.  The Conservatives are promising no big changes to economic management and given the uncertainties of the Canadian and world economy the intention is to present any change as too great a risk.  That message is summarised in the graphic above from the Canadian Conservatives' website.

Greg Weston of the Winnipeg Sun summarises the two main parties' strategies:

"If the Conservatives can make the campaign all about the wobbly leadership and mangled messaging of Stephane Dion, the Liberals will likely be done like Thanksgiving dinner. But if the Grits can successfully frame Stephen Harper as an icy, right-wing autocrat who can't be trusted with a majority government, the Conservatives may equally be in for an uphill campaign."

The road to a Conservative majority goes through the French province of Quebec.  Mr Harper's first campaign stop will be there.  The 'Family is everything' video below also attempts to present Mr Harper as a family man.  He has traditionally polled less well among women:

He reminded Canadians of his minority government's achievements since coming to office:

• "Today tax freedom day — the day you stop working for the government and start working for yourself — arrives 11 days earlier than it did in 2005."
• "Today our laws are tougher, sentences are longer and victims are better protected."
• A recognition of Quebec as a nation.

Polls point to modest Tory gains if the election were held today but not an end to minority government status.  Liberal leader Stephane Dion accuses the Conservatives of breaking a pledge to hold elections at fixed intervals.  The Conservatives respond by saying that opposition tactics have made continued minority government unworkable.

We recommend BloggingTories as a gateway to keeping in touch with the campaign.

Liam Fox endorses Stephen Harper's re-election bid

Dr Liam Fox, the UK Conservatives' Defence spokesman, pays tribute to Canadian PM Stephen Harper.  Talking to Ottawa blogger Stephen Taylor Dr Fox describes Mr Harper as a "class act", contrasts Canada's commitment to Afghanistan with European efforts, and hopes that he'll be re-elected. 

An election is now imminent after the minority Conservative government's talks with opposition leaders failed.

Two Canadian Conservative ads are posted at PlayPolitical.com.

Canada set for election

Canadian PM Stephen Harper has led a minority government since the start of 2006 but frustration at opposition parties' blocking of key aspects of his agenda may mean an early election.  The National Post reports that Mr Harper "plans to summon the Liberals to a meeting, where they will be asked to approve in advance everything the government wants done this fall. If the answer is no, Stephen Harper will call an election."  Mr Harper says "the fact of the matter is what I will have to decide over the next few weeks is whether or not we can have a productive fall session of Parliament or whether in fact the government needs a new mandate."

Opinion polls suggest that no party would win an election if it was called now but the Conservatives believe that Liberal plans for a carbon tax might be a real electoral liability during these strained economic times.

"We're at a pretty critical time. There are economic challenges on the horizon," a government aide told Reuters, complaining that working in the current Parliament was like swimming in molasses: "An election would clear the air and give a government -- ours or a Liberal government -- some open waters to swim in."

Canadian politics is currently split four ways. Of 308 seats there are...

• 127 Conservatives
• 95 Liberals
• 48 Bloc Quebecois
• 30 NDP (a far left party).

[A handful of Independents get you to 308].

Stephen Harper exploits green tax plans of Canadian Liberals

In a speech yesterday setting out his accomplishments as Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper noted that his was now the longest-serving minority government in his country's history.

The main point of his speech was to launch a strong attack on opposition leader Stephane Dion's plans for a carbon tax, a tax rise that was masquerading as environmentalism, Mr Harper said.  Dion protests that the carbon tax will be offset by tax reductions elsewhere but the CanCons strongly believe that while the public are ready to believe a politician when he/ she says they will raise taxes, they are suspicious of any promise to cut taxation.

The Canadian Conservatives have a website dedicated to attacking the plans that includes a short history of broken promises of offsetting or replacement taxes.  The website's design will be interesting to conservative campaigners across the world.

Stephane Dion named his dog Kyoto and a bright spark started a blog in the dog's honour.

Canadian Conservatives end funding for fringe arts groups

The National Post is reporting that Canada's Conservative government has axed a Can$4.7m 'PromArt' programme that sponsors often controversial arts as part of international visits:

"The cut is part of a government-wide review to trim spending, but the PromArt program became an easy target when senior Tories discovered that some recipients of taxpayer-funded foreign travel were "not exactly the foot that most Canadians would want to see put forward."

The recipients singled out by the Conservatives include: - $3,000 to Toronto-based experimental rock band Holy F---for a week-long tour of the United Kingdom. - $5,000 to former CBC broadcaster Avi Lewis, who now works for al-Jazeera and who is described in a Conservative memo as "a general radical," to help pay for his travel to film festivals in Australia and Argentina. - $16,500 to send Tal Bachman, a best-selling recording artist and the son of The Guess Who's Randy Bachman, to South Africa and Zimbabwe for music festivals.

"I think there's a reasonable expectation by taxpayers that they won't fund the world travel of wealthy rock stars, ideological activists or fringe and alternative groups," the source said."

This is only the latest move by Canadian Conservatives to end the ways in which Left-liberal groups have benefited hugely from taxpayer funding.  Stephen Harper's government has already defunded a range of leftist advocacy groups that grew fat under the previous Liberal governments.  It is also carefully including a range of more mainstream groups - particularly Christian, farming and hunting associations - that have never been seriously listened to by Ottawa's political establishment.  It is part of a coordinated attempt to reverse the Left's 'march through the institutions'.

"Harperland": Canada's Conservatives build their coalition

Macleans magazine profiles the goals that Stephen Harper's Conservatives have set themselves:

1. "The immediate goal is to win an election.
2. The longer-term goal is to settle Harper in for a durable transformation of Canadian politics.  Some of his oldest friends talk about a Harper era that would last a decade;
3. Confirm the healing of Canada's legendarily factious conservative movement;
4. Encourage division within the Liberal party and between Liberals and other opposition parties; and
5. Durably transform the country's political culture."

Stephen Harper's coalition is proving stable, notes Paul Wells:

"Harper knows that for every voter who is implacably opposed to his continued tenure at 24 Sussex Drive, there is another voter who thinks he's been a fine Prime Minister so far. That coalition hasn't grown much since 2006, but what's less often noticed is that it hasn't shrunk either — it's turning out to be durable. For our purposes today it is better to understand the Harper coalition, not as a matter of geography (Quebec nationalists, Western reformers) but of demographics. Harper appeals, and plans to keep appealing, to middle-class and working-class employees, tradesmen, parents of small children, entrepreneurs, and military families and their supporters. People who believe they pay more to Ottawa than they are used to getting from it, whether in money, programs or respect. Harper and a few lieutenants — his strategic chief Patrick Muttart, his underappreciated junior minister Jason Kenney — have been thinking about and planning how to cement that coalition still further, and encourage its judicious growth at the margin."

The article goes on to look at how Mr Harper and his aides are studying Richard Nixon for next steps in coalition-building:

"Harper sets about building his coalition. Like his young chief strategist, Patrick Muttart, he is a keen student of earlier examples, at home and in other countries. And anyone interested in understanding what Harper is trying to accomplish could do worse than to pack some hefty vacation reading this summer: an extraordinary new book by a young American historian, Rick Perlstein, called Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America.

Perlstein is no fan of Republicans, but he works diligently to understand what they do and why they win. The aim of his second book is to explain how the United States went from a historic Democrat landslide in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson won re-election, to a historic Republic landslide in 1972, when Nixon did. Perlstein's main character "is not Richard Nixon," he writes. "It is the voter who, in 1964, pulled the lever for the Democrat for president because to do anything else, at least that particular Tuesday in November, seemed to court civilizational chaos, and who, eight years later, pulled the lever for the Republican for exactly the same reason."

Nixonland, then, is a case study in coalition-building. It is about the art of identifying and wooing the mythic prey of all political strategists, the "gettable voter," who didn't vote for you last time but might the next. But Nixon was also a master at deepening the allegiance of his voter base — at making Conservatives proud and happy to have him around by identifying strongly with their preoccupations. In preparing for Harper's 2006 victory, Muttart studied Nixon's example closely. Both in the way he broadened his coalition and the way he sunk the allegiance of his base, Harper drew heavily on Nixon's example."