Under its new leader Tony Abbott, the Australian Liberals are calling for a national debate on the level of immigration into Australia.
Kevin Andrews, the Liberal Party's new spokesman on families and community affairs, has called for an end to the Labor government's "big Australia" policy. The Age reports:
"Senior Opposition frontbencher Kevin Andrews has called for a debate on slashing Australia's immigration from 180,000 people a year to a ''starting point'' of just 35,000. In his first interview since returning to the shadow cabinet as spokesman on families and community affairs, the former immigration minister questioned the ''blithe'' acceptance of projections that the population will hit 35 million by 2050...
Arguing that Australians were deeply concerned about problems such as urban sprawl, overcrowding, traffic snarls and dwindling water supplies, Mr Andrews challenged Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's advocacy of ''a big Australia''. ''If you look at the 2008 data, you would need about 35,000 immigrants on top of births to replace the population (for that year). So I say the starting point should be replacement levels of population, then ask what additional population we need so the country can be economically and otherwise sustainable and growing,'' he said."
Just days after Tony Abbott became leader of Australia's centre right opposition in controversial circumstances, his party has won two federal by-elections, caused by the retirement of two senior members of his own party. The Sydney Morning Herald described the twin victories as "comfortable":
"Just days after Mr Abbott won the Liberal leadership from Malcolm Turnbull, the party coasted to victory in the Melbourne seat of Higgins, vacated by former treasurer Peter Costello, and the north Sydney electorate of Bradfield, formerly held by Brendan Nelson. The solid performance surprised many who thought the Liberals might suffer a backlash due to Mr Abbott's decision to overhaul the party's climate changing policy, withdrawing support for the introduction of an emissions trading scheme (ETS), which is favoured by Labor."
The Age (another left-leaning newspaper) concluded that Tony Abbott's "opposition to Labor's emissions trading scheme has support in the conservative heartland."
The Australian's Editor-at-Large Paul Kelly profiles the unpredictable 'Abbot effect' here:
"This week Tony Abbott smashed the mould of Australian politics. With the opposition divided and behind, he is forcing Kevin Rudd to an election on climate change, the issue that is supposedly owned by the Labor Party. This is either brilliance or sheer folly. Abbott does not accept the orthodoxies that have governed politics during the Rudd ascendancy, and this makes him dangerous for both Labor and Liberal. Abbott is an unpredictable and elemental force who defies the modern political rule book. No adviser can tell Abbott what to say or how to say it. After being elected Liberal leader by surprise, Abbott spent the rest of week throwing political grenades -- supporting individual workplace contracts, backing a nuclear power debate and killing the emissions trading scheme -- while his colleagues held their breath wondering how the public would react."
Patrick Cusworth is a public affairs consultant and a member of Hornsey
and Wood Green Conservative Association. He supported the Australian
Liberal Party during the Queensland State elections in March 2009.
The Australian Liberal Party has elected Tony Abbott as its new leader, following a public loss of confidence in Malcolm Turnbull. Following a packed Canberra meeting of Liberal MPs, Abbott beat Turnbull by 42 votes to 41 after the initial favourite, shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, was eliminated in the first round of voting. Known as both a social and economic conservative, the London-born Mr Abbott becomes the Liberal’s third leader since the 2007 federal election defeat to the Australian Labor Party, after Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson last September.
Mr Turnbull, who at the beginning of the year was forced to endure ongoing threats of a challenge from former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello, said he was "naturally disappointed” by the result, and that there would now be a "pretty dramatic change in policy" within the Liberal Party. In particular, the issue of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is certain to prove a vital one in the build-up to Australia’s next federal election (which many have suggested could be called earlier than initially expected, despite the Prime Minister’s denials).
Mr Abbott has long been an outspoken critic of Turnbull’s decision to support Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's proposed legislation, with Turnbull appearing to be paying the price for failing to demonstrate sufficient concern for the potential economic impact of the scheme; that was despite securing amendments to the legislation which he claimed would have assisted farmers as well as saved “tens of thousands of jobs” and as much as $200 billion of investment.
Tony Abbott is one of the most conservative members of the Liberal Party, socially and economically. He is a fierce opponent of the Liberal Party's deal with Kevin Rudd on climate change. The Liberals have now had four leaders in two years. Anyone want to bet that it won't soon be five?
A General Election is very likely soon. Rudd enjoys very high approval ratings and the Liberals have rarely been more divided. Kevin Andrews MP, a Liberal critic of Turnbull, argues, however, that opposition to Rudd's green measures may give the Liberals a potent electoral issue.
Update: Speaking to a friend downunder he gave me this warning: "Climate change fundamentalism has wrecked our conservative coalition. Be careful it doesn't wreck yours."
"The Liberal Party is in turmoil tonight following the resignation of six front benchers, including Tony Abbott and Senator Nick Minchin, after they refused to back Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's position on the controversial emissions trading scheme. Liberal frontbenchers Sophie Mirabella, Senator Eric Abetz, Tony Smith and Stephen Parry have also quit their positions over the ETS, leaving Malcolm Turnbull's future as leader in doubt. In a press conference tonight Mr Turnbull said he respected his colleagues' decision but the issue was now one of integrity and it would be irresponsible for the party to not take action on climate change."
Yesterday Mr Turnbull survived a leadership challenge from Kevin Andrews MP but other Liberal MPs may yet challenge their leader if polls continue to point to a landslide defeat.
Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian Liberal Party leader since September last year when he ousted Brendan Nelson, is likely to face a leadership challenge of his own in the next 24 hours. Mr Turnbull has caused fury and division within his party after forcing the party to support the Labour government's amended emissions trading scheme - amended by Turnbull. Pasted below are some key commentaries:
Sydney Morning Herrald: "Malcolm Turnbull's leadership has been taken to the brink after his decision to put his job on the line over climate change backfired when he was rolled by the backbench. In extraordinary scenes last night, Mr Turnbull declared he wanted to cut a deal with Labor on the emissions tradings scheme and if anybody was opposed, they should move a motion and challenge him."
The Australian: "Malcolm Turnbull last night threatened to quit the Liberal leadership if his party did not back his assessment that a majority of the Coalition supported an emissions trading scheme deal he had struck with the Rudd government. The Liberal leader laid down his "my way or the highway" ultimatum and closed the partyroom meeting after anti-ETS Coalition MPs, led by Senate leader Nick Minchin, refused to accept his calculation that the meeting had supported the ETS deal. "I am the leader, I have made the call," Mr Turnbull said at a news conference later. "If people are unhappy with the leader they can take whatever steps they deem to be appropriate.""
The Age: "Mr Turnbull told a news conference last night: ''The Opposition has today saved tens of thousands of Australian jobs, protected vital industries and secured energy supplies by forcing significant substantial improvements to the Rudd Government's emissions trading scsheme''. He said the deal showed the Opposition was sincere in its commitment on climate change."
***
Australian Prime Minister remains hugely popular in the latest polls. Kevin Rudd enjoys a 63% to 22% advantage over Mr Turnbull in terms of preferred Prime Minister rankings.
The Leader of Australia's Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, has been in London this week. He has met all of the key figures in David Cameron's Conservative Party, including an hour long meeting with David Cameron, George Osborne and William Hague. There is probably no closer relationship between any two conservative parties in the world and it is now the UK Tories - on the edge of power - who are repaying the enormous help that the Australian Liberals gave them when them when John Howard was Prime Minister.
Mr Turnbull, trailing in opinion polls back home, gave a major speech during his visit to the Policy Exchange think tank. It was standing room only on Tuesday night to hear the Liberal leader, wearing R M Williams boots, give a stout defence of free enterprise. He began by noting that Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, had vowed to put government at the centre of the economy.
Mr Turnbull listed the achievements of capitalism before warning against the dangers of government being at the centre of economic life. He argued that capitalism had had a transformational effect on world poverty over the last thirty years and government intervention had been at the heart of the last year's banking crisis:
"Throughout the 20th century, the strongest and most successful, most vibrant, most interesting societies were those infused with the principles of political, economic and religious freedom. The best-performing economies were those where citizens were given the maximum incentive, under the rule of law, to make the choices they considered best for themselves and their families. This is not a matter of ideology of faith. It is an unassailable fact of history. The Berlin Wall did not fall by accident. It fell because millions of people living in societies crippled by the failures of excessive government control yearned for the freedoms they saw in the West. The socialisation of the means of production and distribution had manifestly failed them, and they aspired to something better...
There have been few periods in human history where we have witnessed, in the space of a single generation, such enormous economic advances across so much of the world. Many hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty, as great and ancient societies such as India and even the world’s largest Communist state, the People’s Republic of China, opened their economies to global trade, accepting that free market has a great deal to offer, the principles of the free market has a great deal to offer. The freest societies have proved themselves prosperous, creative and dynamic, while societies which restrict freedom have been paralysed by social and economic failure – the most extreme contemporary example being North Korea – but history abounds with others. The fruits of greater economic freedom have been spectacular – in the 20 years to 2004 the percentage of the world’s poor living on $1 a day or less halved. That is a quantum leap by any measure, on any conceivable index of human happiness. And it is a record of achievement, a measure of progress, not to be demeaned or dismissed in the scramble to find scapegoats for last year’s collapse of confidence in global financial markets...
What has happened in this past year does not as Kevin Rudd has claimed demonstrate that the ”neo-liberal experiment of the last thirty years has failed”. Now I should note at the outset the absurdity of declaring a failure of capitalism because of a crisis in one industry sector alone and of course there will be libraries built to fill the books written on the global financial crisis and its causes. But we should note that it was a crisis in the banking sector which had it origins in the United States property market, where an asset bubble was fuelled by imprudent, sub-prime lending to people whom banks would not normally have rated as creditworthy. In other words, loans were being made to people whose best, if not only, prospect of repaying the loan was out of the sale or refinancing of the house, which in turn depended on the value of the house rising materially. Far from being a product of unbridled ”free market extremism,” as Mr Rudd is fond to say, this irresponsible lending could not have occurred had it not been for the fact that the United States Government, in the shape of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, was actually underwriting two thirds of the entire mortgage market.."
During Q&A Mr Turnbull expressed his "admiration" for David Cameron and said that he admired the way he had broadened conservatism's appeal.
He confirmed that he was still a republican but did not see Australia choosing to alter its constitutional status until the present Queen's death. That will be a "watershed moment", he said.
Five update observations on our sister party in Australia, the Liberal Party:
Current opinion polls suggest that Kevin Rudd will gain seats if he calls an election. The Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull is seen by only 19% of Australians as best choice to be PM. That compares to 66% for the incumbent Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Andrew Bolt charts Rudd's popularity here.
Liberals are suffering an exodus of talent but can't get rid of the bedblockers. Key members of the Howard frontbench had already left the Parliament including former foreign minister Alexander Downer. Former Treasurer Peter Costello has also announced he will be leaving elected politics (although speculation about his future intentions persists - not least because of the success of his memoirs). Former Defence minister and briefly Liberal leader Brendan Nelson (pictured) has now announced his immediate retirement, precipitating an awkward by-election. Unfortunately, however, there are some 'bedblockers' who are not retiring and preventing an influx of new talent.
Tensions on climate change. Rather than focusing on debt Turnbull is, for the moment, having to manage internal tensions over climate change. He is attempting to amend Kevin Rudd's Emissions Trading legislation with a promise of something "greener, cheaper, smarter." But some members of his own party and of the Liberals' traditional ally - the National Party - are completely opposed to the legislation. The Australian's Paul Kelly reports here on how the Nationals are becoming strident in their opposition to Rudd's climate change proposals.
But at the state level the Liberals on the comeback trail. When John Howard was defeated as Prime Minister at the end of 2007 - and lost his own seat - the Liberals were out of power in all of Australia. Unlike Britain, government at the state level matters in Australia but the Liberals had lost control in every state legislature during their extended period of domination at the federal level. The Liberals won back control of Western Australia last September and the new Liberal-led administration remains popular. Polls suggest the Liberals could gain control of Queensland and (more of a stretch) Tasmania. Labor governments - like nearly all governments - have been in power for extended periods in these states and have become tired, complacent and often sleazy. Most encouraging of all for the Liberals is polling suggesting that they could win back New South Wales, which includes Sydney. NSW is the biggest prize of all outside the federal government and a classic US-style "blue state". Liberals don't win it very often.
The Australian Liberals have sent the above email to their supporters in Australia urging them to encourage their British friends to register to vote as part of the Conservatives' dontleaveyourvoteathome project. Thank you Mr Turnbull!
Pasted below is the full statement from Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull opposing what is a Aus$42bn stimulus from the nation's Labor government:
"The Coalition will oppose the Rudd Government’s latest $42 billion expenditure package because it is not a responsible or sustainable way to run the national economy.
We know this decision will not be popular, but it is the right decision.
The Prime Minister yesterday demanded that the House of Representatives approve $42 billion in expenditure within 48 hours: almost a billion dollars an hour.
We consider that the package is poorly targeted, ill-thought through and irresponsible in today’s economic climate.
At this stage we believe a package of between $15-20 billion would be more affordable and appropriate.
The objective of any package must be to protect and create jobs, support small business and strengthen our economy. This package will not achieve this.
We have said time and again that the most important issue this year is jobs.
We look at this package and we see little evidence that it will underpin the jobs of Australians.
There is no evidence the Government’s $10.4 billion spending package before Christmas created the 75,000 jobs Mr Rudd promised.
Almost all economists agree that the recession has a long way to go. And yet the Rudd Labor Government is panicking, firing all its bullets at the first engagement.
And even with his reckless cash hand-outs and massive, debt-fuelled spending, the Prime Minister’s package predicts unemployment will top 7% in just over a year – another 300,000 Australians out of work.
We believe the Senate should sit next week to ensure proper detailed scrutiny of this package, which contains the largest increase in government expenditure in 35 years.
The previous Labor Government left a legacy of $96 billion in government debt and the Budget had been in deficit for six successive years. It took the Australian people a decade to repay this debt.
Now, another Labor Government is asking us, on behalf of those hard working Australians to agree to plunge headlong back into large deficits and significant debt.
Mr Rudd’s plan asks the Parliament’s permission to take the nation $200 billion into deficit – $9,500 debt for every Australian.
Today I outline an alternate response which will be more effective in protecting Australians from the effects of the financial crisis.
It is an approach which clearly outlines the difference between the Coalition and Labor.
It is an approach borne out of a predisposition towards experienced, prudent economic management.
It is an approach which recognises the reality of a Budget deficit but aims to minimise public debt.
We propose that the permanent tax cuts currently scheduled for 1 July 2009 and 1 July 2010 be brought forward, and backdated to 1 January this year.
By the middle of 2010 this would leave a two-income household earning $80,000 approximately $1700 better off.
Perhaps the largest gap in the Government package is the lack of measures that directly and broadly support employment – particularly employment in the small business sector.
While accelerated depreciation has some merit, the Coalition believes measures that more directly, immediately improve the cash flow position of small firms and help them protect and create jobs are preferable.
One proposal the Coalition is seeking to discuss with the Government is the Commonwealth paying a portion of the Superannuation Guarantee Levy on behalf of small employers (those with 20 or fewer staff) for the next two years. This measure will directly improve the cash position of small firms, directly reduce the costs of employment, and so directly contribute to preserving jobs.
These measures are not only fairer. They also represent a better targeted and more effective stimulus for the economy. They better protect jobs.
The Coalition invites the Government to sit down and discuss alternative stimulus measures which would be responsible and allow sufficient capacity in public finances to meet emerging challenges.
The Coalition is committed to sound economic management and to ensuring that Government spending is of high quality and reduces the burden on Australian taxpayers and their children."
I am delighted to report that James McGrath - Australian by birth but a big player in Boris Johnson's recent mayoral victory and for freedom in the Maldives - has been recruited by Malcolm Turnbull to be Deputy Federal Director of Australia's Liberals. James will head the campaign unit in charge of all target and marginal seats. He will work to Brian Loughnane, the experienced and much respected Federal Director at the last two elections. James left London at the weekend and began work in Canberra on Tuesday.
Ousting Labor's Kevin Rudd will be an uphill struggle. Australians tend to re-elect governments at the first time of asking but the latest opinion poll gives Mr Turnbull a little more encouragement. It puts Labor's lead at 8% compared to 18% last month.
Malcolm Turnbull, the recently-elected leader of Australia's Liberals, has objected to the suggestion that the Lord's Prayer - currently used to begin parliamentary proceedings - be replaced or "rewritten".
"Opening the Australian Parliament each day with the Lord’s Prayer is an important reminder of our shared humanity and a reference to the words of our Constitution when ‘humbly relying on the blessing of Almighty God’ we established the Commonwealth of Australia over 100 years ago.
Media reports today that the Speaker of the House of Representatives is seeking to remove the Lord’s Prayer from the daily programme is the first time this matter has been raised with the Opposition.
The Lord’s Prayer has a very important place in the conduct of the parliamentary programme, and ahead of the day’s debate and deliberations it provides a non-partisan reaffirmation of our commitment to the common good for the people of Australia.
Removal of the Lord’s Prayer by the Speaker or the Government is completely unacceptable and will not be supported by the Coalition."
Prayers start the parliamentary day in many legislatures, including Canada and the UK.
Tom Switzer, former adviser to Australian Liberal leader Brendan Nelson, has written for The Spectator's new Australia blog about the tensions within his party about green policies:
"Whereas once both leaders [Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull] were calling on Australians to pay higher energy prices to save the planet, they now warn of tougher economic times as the financial crisis enters a new and dangerous phase. Whereas once Australians wanted to do their bit to cut the gases our leaders claim cause global warming, we now panic about more visceral things like protecting their jobs, mortgages and superannuation. Whereas once Australians were cheering on the Prime Minister to lead the world on the environment, we now fear we’ll succumb to the financial contagion wreaking havoc all over the world. And whereas once the political debate was over co-ordinated global action to tackle global warming, it’s now over co-ordinated global action to stabilise the international financial system."
The Australian Conservative has just been launched. It aims to offer something similar to that provided by ConHome in the UK. It is certainly beautifully presented and we'll be visiting regularly. Our best of luck to John Styles, its editor.
Within one hour of Brendan Nelson becoming John Howard's successor, 292 days ago, Malcolm Turnbull had, blogs Samantha Maiden, "stormed into the new Liberal leader’s parliamentary office... tearing into Nelson over his “funereal speech” and urging him to toughen up." Mr Nelson was never allowed another moment's peace and quiet during his turbulent tenure as leader.
Yesterday he called a surprise leadership election in the hope of throwing his year-long rival, Mr Turnbull off balance. Today - with astonishing speed - his gamble failed and his fellow MPs chose Mr Turnbull to be their leader (by 45 votes to 41). Mr Turnbull lost to Mr Nelson by 45 votes to 42 last year. Mr Nelson has said that he will now return to the backbenches.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation is calling it "The Turnbull Experiment". Malcolm Bligh Turnbull is seen by many as a one man band and loose cannon. Many of those 41 Liberal Party MPs who voted against him worried that he would be inadequately respectful of others' views - the reverse problem of Mr Nelson, a leader who had been too ready to agree with every colleague.
Turnbull is the son of a single father, a self-made multi-millionaire and an avowed moderniser, particularly on the issue of the environment.
He will be known to many Britons as the lawyer who successfully defended Peter
Wright in the Spycatcher case and as a champion of making Australia a
republic.
Australian PM, Kevin Rudd, has already challenged Mr Turnbull to help him lead the nation away from the monarchy.
The Australian Liberals finally won some serious power yesterday when the Nationals agreed to form a coalition with them in the prosperous state of Western Australia. Labor in WA called an early election and it has backfired spectacularly on them.
But the real breaking news from downunder is the national Liberal leader's decision to call a John Major-inspired, put-up-or-shut-up leadership election.
Mr Brendan Nelson has been subject to constant leadership speculation since assuming the post in the wake of John Howard's 2007 election defeat.
Two men have been most talked about as successors to Mr Nelson, former Treasurer Peter Costello and current Liberal Treasury spokesman, Malcolm Turnbull.
Mr Costello effectively ruled himself out of the race last week:
Likeliest to challenge Mr Nelson is Malcolm Turnbull. Mr Turnbull would be more of a modernising candidate with a very strong commitment to environmentalism and party reform.
Australia's Liberals have made significant gains in the conservative state of Western Australia (WA). There are still results to come in but there is a real possibility that the Liberals will be able to form a coalition government with the National Party. Since John Howard's defeat last year the Liberals have been out of power across Australia. The embattled Liberal leader, Brendan Nelson, will take heart from the result. More at Bloomberg.
The ruling WA Labor party called the early election to take advantage of a forced leadership change in the Liberals. A few factors seem to have brought them to the brink of defeat:
Successful Liberal attempts to complain about Labor 'cutting and running';
A website that attempted to exploit former WA Liberal leader's sniffing of the chair of a female colleague. The Australian described the website as "every bit as offensive to women as Buswell's initial antics". Labor were forced to close it down;
Internal tensions in the Labor party of New South Wales which unhelpfully broke out on the eve of the WA ballot.
Canada's minority Conservative government will hope for more success when Stephen Harper announces an early General Election, probably tomorrow.
Australian Liberal leader Brendan Nelson was in London on Thursday and Friday. His time in the UK included meetings with Australian business representatives, the Bank of England and Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague.
Questioned by this website Mr Nelson said that he had "looked closely" at David Cameron's leadership of the UK Conservative Party and had been "impressed" with what he had seen. The motorbike-riding Australian paid particular tribute to the bike-riding UK Tory's environmental policies (modified in recent months) and Mr Cameron's description of himself as a "Liberal Conservative". Mr Nelson and Mr Cameron were unable to meet because the Tory leader was still on his summer holiday.
Since becoming Liberal leader in November 2007 Mr Nelson has launched a massive review of the policies of his predecessor, John Howard. The most significant shifts have been:
Support for the Kyoto Treaty on global warming. Mr Nelson identified John Howard's opposition to Kyoto (targeted in this effective Labor general election ad) as one of three significant factors in his party's defeat by Kevin Rudd. A prolonged period of drought has been popularly blamed on climate change. The second factor in the defeat, said Mr Nelson, was simple longevity and the third, John Howard's labour market reforms.
Ending of the workplace reforms that many believe were the decisive factor in John Howard's undoing.
Support for the Australian withdrawal from Iraq. Kevin Rudd's promise to quit Iraq was strongly opposed by John Howard but was endorsed by Mr Nelson, who had served as PM Howard's Defence Secretary. Mr Nelson appointed Tom Switzer, former OpEd editor of The Australian newspaper and a staunch opponent of the Iraq war, as a key adviser.
The Liberals remain well behind Labor in national opinion polls and Mr Nelson has been subject to constant leadership speculation after only narrowing defeating the more modernising candidate, Malcolm Turnbull for the top Liberal job.
The Liberals' best hope of ending Labor's monopoly rule of federal and every state government had been thought to be looming elections in Western Australia. The ruling Labor administration has, however, called early elections in a bid to take advantage of a forced change in the state's Liberal leadership. Labor are expected to keep power.
Asked by conservativeinternational.com if the most significant lesson of the British Tories was that recovery took many years, Mr Nelson replied that he was "very determined" to be ready for victory at the next Australian general election and pointed to by-election swings in Victoria as evidence that his party was already advancing. He said that his review of policy would be completed early so that he would have time to persuade the Australian electorate that the Liberals had changed and were ready to lead again.
When Kevin Rudd won Australia's General Election last year he ensured that the Australian Labor Party ruled in every state and at the federal level - the first time that any party had a clean sweep of power across Australia.
The Liberal Party's best hope of changing that comes when the very prosperous Western Australia goes to the polls. The election does not have to be held until 2nd May next year but Liberal turmoil may encourage the state's Labor premier to seek an early re-election. Liberal chances of avoiding defeat have improved over the last 48 hours because of the decision of their leader, Troy Buswell, to step down. As Peter van Onselen explains in The Australian it's something Mr Buswell should have done long before now:
"Earlier this year Buswell was exposed for having sniffed the chair of a female staff member when he was deputy leader in 2005. He also had been outed for having unwontedly flicked open the bra strap of a Labor staff member at a boozy drinks party."
One of the main reasons for the weakness of the Australian Liberal Party at state level is that the party's best talents - at elected official and staff level - migrated to Canberra during the John Howard years. The rebuilding will take some years.
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