international

Sarkozy says Burkha is not welcome in France

France may have Western Europe's largest Muslim population - five million - but it was also the country that, five years ago, banned the Muslim headscarf and other religious symbols from public schools.  President Nicolas Sarkozy has now joined calls for the burkha to be banned:

"We cannot accept to have in our country women who are prisoners behind netting, cut off from all social life, deprived of identity. That is not the idea that the French republic has of women's dignity.
"The burka is not a sign of religion, it is a sign of subservience. It will not be welcome on the territory of the French republic."

President Sarkozy's stance contrasts with that of President Obama, set out in Cairo last month:

"The US government has gone to court to protect the right of women and girls to wear the hijab, and to punish those who would deny it."

The Times' Charles Bremner reports mixed views from France's Muslim leaders:

"Imam of the Paris Mosque Dalil Boubakeur supported an inquiry, saying that face covering for women was a fundamentalist practice originating in Afghanistan that was not prescribed by Islam. The national Muslim Council, which is less tied to the establishment, accused lawmakers of wasting time on a fringe phenomenon. "To raise the subject like this ... is a way of stigmatising Islam," council leader Mohammed Moussaoui said."

Does immigration explain the European Right's electoral success?

The Economist's Charlemagne doesn't quite believe the argument but posts a possible explanation for why Europe's Right is benefiting from this decade's recession when Europe's Left benefited from the downturn of the 1990s:

"Normally, recessions benefit the left. The Golden Age for the centre left in the European Parliament was the 1990s when Europe had double digit unemployment and a nasty recession. Yet in the current recession, voters are turning to right-wing and xenophobic parties across the Old Continent, away from the parties that historically contributed much more to the construction of the European welfare state. Yet ideologically, parties of the left are unwilling to limit immigration or access to welfare for immigrants. So with unemployment and deficits rising, native born citizens have the "legitimate worry" that those defending redistribution will still end up forced to cut welfare payments, because they will not limit immigration."

A YouGov survey for MigrationWatch showed that immigration was the fourth most important issue for UK voters in last week's elections:

• 51% said Britain's relationship with the EU
• 51% said economy, jobs and standard of living
• 40% said conduct of MPs
• 35% said immigration
• 14% said the environment
• 12% said the NHS
• 12% said crime
• 7% said education.

Europe swings rightwards in European Parliamentary Elections

When the recession struck many expected the Left to gain in global politics but in yesterday's European Parliamentary elections, it was centre right parties that advanced.

The Guardian:

"In Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary and the Czech Republic, the centre right won the elections, with stunning defeats for the left in certain cases. In the EU's biggest country, Germany, returning 99 of the parliament's 736 seats, the Social Democrats (SPD), the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's grand coalition, sunk to an all-time low, with 21% of the vote....

France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, claimed triumph with 28% for his UMP party to the Socialists 17%, the first time a sitting French president has won a European election since the vote began 30 years ago.

In Italy, the centre-right government of Silvio Berlusconi also did well, despite his marital breakdown and scandals over parties at his Sardinian villa, while in Spain the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero also lost the election to conservatives....

The main opposition for Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, is further to the right, while the leaders in France and Italy appeared to benefit from tough anti-immigration and law-and-order stances, despite the soap opera nature of both leaders' private lives.

With the jobless numbers soaring amid the worst economic crisis in the lifetimes of European voters, the centre left is clearly failing to benefit politically in circumstances that might be expected to boost its support."

Good news for Berlusconi and Wilders in European polling, less good news for Sarkozy and Merkel

On European Elections Day for Britain (not the rest of Europe) here are snapshots of opinion across the continent as compiled by London's ComRes opinion pollster:

• "Controversial nationalist politician Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (NI), formed only in February 2006, is tied with Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende’s Christian Democrat Appeal (EPP-ED) in terms of projected seats in the Dutch Parliament, the Tweede Kamer. Wilders’ party, whose support has swelled since the publication of the firebrand’s anti-Islam film Fitna, may well rock the Dutch political establishment to the core by topping the poll in the June European elections.  Wilders has eschewed the offer of French MEP Bruno Gollnisch for his party to join a reconstituted far-right grouping in the Parliament after the June elections and it continues remains unclear where his deputies will sit."   
• Angela Merkel still looks a good prospect for the next national German elections but the CDU/CSU is currently 8% below the 45% it received in the last European Elections for this week's contest.  "After two successive European election campaigns in which the party lost seats, the German Social Democrats (PES) will increase its representation in the European Parliament."
• 37% of Czechs intend to vote for the Civic Democrats (the new coalition partners of Britain's Tory MEPs) as opposed to 28% who will support the Social Democrats – an 11% 9% lead.
• The Law & Justice Party of Poland - another likely partner for Britain's Tory MEPs - is on course for 25% of the European Elections vote.  Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centre-right Civic Platform (EPP-ED) will top the poll with nearly 50% of the vote.
• Swedish Prime Minister Frederick Reinfeldt’s centre-right Moderate Rally (EPP-ED) trail the Social Democrats by 8% in advance of the European elections. 51% of Swedes are ready to back the Euro.
• 63% of French voters are negative about President Sarkozy's performance.
• Opinion in Denmark on the Euro is finely balanced.  45% support membership, 44% oppose.
• Libertas leader Declan Ganley "is in strong competition for a seat in the North West constituency" of Ireland.  Support for Lisbon is now running at 52% versus 29%.
• Despite speculation about the Italian premier's private life 54% of voters in Italy still support Berlusconi's coalition government.
• The Socialist government of Spain and the opposition centre right Popular Party are level-pegging at 41% and 40% respectively.

Click here for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing.

Click here for last month's briefing.

If you would like to subscribe to ComRes' European Opinion Briefing please email andrew@comres.eu.com.

Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party may top poll in Dutch European Elections

Some key numbers from the latest ComRes survey of European opinion:

• "Controversial nationalist politician Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (NI), formed only in February 2006, holds a narrow lead over Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende’s Christian Democrat Appeal (EPP-ED). Wilders’ party, whose support has swelled since the publication of the firebrand’s anti-Islam film Fitna, may well rock the Dutch political establishment to the core by topping the poll in the June European elections."
• Berlusconi may be experiencing martital breakup but his new Coalition is looking very strong - at 48% in current polls; 14% ahead of the left opposition.  56% of all voters have confidence in Prime Minister Berlusconi.
• 48% of French voters are satisfied with President Nicolas Sarkozy, 50% are dissatisfied
• Angela Merkel remains on course to escape having to cohabit with the SPD after this year's German General Election.  The CDU/CSU and their natural allies, the FD, are at 52% in current polls.
• Is 52% the biggest lead enjoyed by any European political party? Hungary's Civic Union is 52% ahead of its main socialist party rival.
• Prime Minister Brian Cowen's Fianna Fáil trails the opposition Fine Gael by 10% in Irish opinion polls.
• Spain's Popular Party holds a narrow 2% lead over the Socialist government.

Despite talk of a crisis for the Right, left wing parties trail their centre right opponents in Europe's five largest nations.

Click here for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing.

Click here for last month's briefing.

If you would like to subscribe to ComRes' European Opinion Briefing please email andrew@comres.eu.com.

Could the British Conservatives have better friends than Australia's Liberals?

The Australian Liberals have sent the above email to their supporters in Australia urging them to encourage their British friends to register to vote as part of the Conservatives' dontleaveyourvoteathome project.  Thank you Mr Turnbull!

"Europe's left is failing to gain from capitalism's crisis"

In an interesting article for the FT, John Lloyd argues that the Left is not benefiting from the so-called 'crisis of capitalism' that is reportedly engulfing the world:

"In no big European country is the main party of the left, in or out of government, surging ahead. The Burson-Marsteller forecast for the European elections in June shows that the centre-right European People’s party will remain the largest group in the European parliament – even if the British Conservatives and the Czech ODS fulfil their aim to leave the EPP."

He summarises explanations offered by others:

"What has gone wrong for the left?

In a recent column on the Open Democracy website, Tibor Dessewffy, a Hungarian commentator, argues that “fears of terrorism, and subsequent anxieties caused by immigration and the sustainability issues of welfare and social systems, [have] brought the progressive left under increasing pressure”.

Wouter Bos, leader of the Dutch Labour party and deputy prime minister in the Netherlands’ right-left coalition government, said in a speech in London last year that these issues, and the pressures of globalisation, “reduce the effectiveness of the kind of policies we [the left] favour. It affects the cohesion which is our lifeblood. It hurts our international orientation that has always been the core to our mission”.

Olaf Cramme, director of the UK-based Policy Network, a centre-left global policy forum, believes that “despite the scale of the crisis of neo-liberalism, leftwing proposals about how to remake capitalism aren’t being received well. The centre left finds it difficult to offer a credible alternative to how to ensure wealth and security. In fact, in many countries, the conservative parties have been less enthusiastic about the growth of finance capitalism and tougher on regulating the financial sector than the left”.

There is a cloud of rhetoric on the end of capitalism – or, more often, “free-market capitalism”, as if that were a wholly separate entity. Beneath it, however, lies a public mood that is deeply sceptical of a left whose governing parties in the past decade have used the surpluses generated by successful finance capital to fund their social programmes, and, in general, is even more sceptical of a far left which apportions blame but has little experience of, or programmes for, government."

Conservative commentators would also note, however, that most of Europe's centre right leaders have moved towards the left during this period on issues of regulation, fiscal stimulus, industrial interventionism and protectionism.

Merkel and Berlusconi enjoy strong domestic support

Some key numbers from the latest ComRes survey of European opinion:

• French Right set to increase number of MEPs: "While confidence in Sarkozy among the French public is low, the party appears set to outpace the Socialist Party in June. In 2004, then President Chirac’s UMP polled a humiliating 17% of the vot e with the Socialists polling 12% ahead of them at 29%". Overall, however, 37% of French voters are satisfied with President Sarkozy's performance but 62% are dissatisfied.
• Merkel on course to break free of grand coalition: "Angela Merkel’s coaliti on “government in waiting” which brings together the Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union and Free Democ ratic Party continues to be in robust form. Their combined 48% vote share should be enough to guarantee Merkel the seats required to secure another four years in office without the need for an uncomfortable
  ‘grand coalition’."
• Hungary's Socialist government 31% behind Civic Union rival: Election may be held earlier than next year.
• 40% of the people of troubled Iceland would like to join the EU, 45% would not.
• 46% of Irish set to vote yes in  second Lisbon vote, 27% no.
• 51% of Swedes oppose joining the Euro, 45% support doing so.
• Berlusconi's Right-of-centre coalition has 22% lead over Italy's Left. Berlusconi recently brought Italy's main centre right parties together. 
• Spain's centre left government has a 2% lead over the centre right opposition.

Click Download Pollwatch Euro Apr09pdf for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing.

Click here for last month's briefing.

If you would like to subscribe to ComRes' European Opinion Briefing please email andrew@comres.eu.com.

Harper and Cameron hold first meeting

Stephen Harper may have missed the G20 photograph but his first meeting with Tory leader was captured on camera.

The talks between Mr Cameron and Prime Minister Harper focused on the economy and Afghanistan but also how the Canadian Conservative Party had reached out to ethnic communities.

Canadian Conservative officials also held talks at UK Tory HQ to exchange campaign ideas.

The meeting concluded a busy round of international bilaterals for the Tory leader, all on the margins of the G20.  In addition to the meeting with President Obama David Cameron also met the Presidents of Mexico, Indonesia and South Korea and the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and the Czech Republic.

Stephen Harper talks to Sky News about the G20 summit

Pointing to Canada's successful system of banking regulation, Mr Harper rejects an international system of regulation. He says that individual nations must retain sovereignty over their regulatory systems but progress can be maintained on international standards. He defends Canada's "aggressive" stimulus - citing his country's strong underlying budgetary position - and also his decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan in 2011. He describes Iraq as a distraction from the Afghan campaign. He calls on the world to respect American leadership; resolution of the world's problems requires it, he insists.

A trilemma for the world's Right

Blog by Peter Cuthbertson.

"Suppose that a government can have any two of the following things, but not all three: globalisation, in the sense of openness to international flows of goods, services, capital and labour; social stability; and a small state. Or, to put it differently, conservatives can pick any two from an open economy, a stable society and political power – but not all three."

So Niall Ferguson theorised this week both in the Daily Telegraph - and in his Centre for Policy Studies Ruttenberg Memorial Lecture. This trilemma, as he called the choice between three options, is now being faced by the right in Britain, the United States, Canada and Australia.

Global capitalism may well be the greatest process for creating wealth and annihilating of poverty, but in two ways it also tends towards instability. First, in the sense that an average person can expect to face an economic crisis about once in their lifetime. Second, the less dramatic reality that outsourcing, competition and rapid economic change can mean an insecurity and volatility of employment and incomes. So even forgetting the risk of a major crisis, the secure job for life is scarcely available in this modern economy, even if other jobs and sources of income may be. Social stability can nonetheless be ensured if the government makes major efforts to ameliorate this volatility - but there goes the small state. So in an economic crisis most of all, conservatives may find themselves in the politically unwelcome position of both defending globalisation and fighting back against new government initiatives introduced to combat the crisis. Or they can bow to an agenda of growing government, but concede the political victory to a left presented with an opportunity 'too good to miss'. Either way, the trilemma ensures that "[o]nly the Left can offer what seems to be a credible response: globalisation plus social stability plus a strong interventionist state".

Having identified the trilemma, Ferguson has also proposed some answers - answers that are orthodox without being unoriginal. Politically, conservatives must point out the degree to which the current crisis is anything but an unambiguous consequence of unregulated global capitalism. In policy, they must ensure the education system inculcates the broader set of skills appropriate for an economy in which most people will need to change jobs or careers at certain moments in their lives.

Berlusconi's new People of Freedom party aims to dominate Italian politics

Yesterday's Times reported Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's ambition to create a party of the Right for Italy that is as powerful and stable as Germany's CDU or Britain's Conservative Party.

Italy's political party system has long been fragmented and Italy's Left is more fragmented today than for many years.  But in a weekend of celebrations - costing nearly £3m - Berlusconi's Forza Italia party will merge with Gianfranco Fini's Alleanza Nazionale.  The new party will be called the Popolo della Liberta (PDL).  That's People of Freedom Party in English.

The Times highlights Mr Fini's efforts to distance his Alliance from his past:

"The Alleanza Nazionale evolved in 1994 from the MSI, or Italian Social Movement, the descendant of the outlawed Fascist party. It has spent much time and effort distancing itself from its unsavoury past: Mr Fini, a former neo-Fascist youth leader, has tried to establish a rapport with Italy's Jewish community and repudiated some of his own statements.  Mr Fini has made repeated trips to Israel, condemning Mussolini's 1938 anti-Semitic race laws and being photographed in a skull cap at the Holocaust Museum and the Wailing Wall. He has increasingly moved to the centre, attacking discrimination against immigrants and reaching out to Muslims as well as Jews."

Fini is currently a supporter of Berlusconi but, as The Economist has noted, has warned against "Caesarism" from Italy's increasingly powerful PM.

The PDL is expected to become the largest member of the EPP following June's elections to the European Parliament.

Italy's right-wing Northern League has chosen not to join the PDL.

Czech Prime MInister Topolanek brands Obama's fiscal stimulus as "the way to hell"

The policy of fiscal stimulus hasn't had a good week in the European Parliament.

The attack on Gordon Brown's position by MEP Daniel Hannan is now well documented, yet the following day in the very same chamber no less a figure than the Czech Prime Minister, Mirek Toplanek - who currently holds the Presidency of the European Union - launched a stinging attack on President Obama's economic policy.

Yesterday, in reference to the $787 billion spending plan being embarked upon by President Obama, and the $1 trillion he plans to pump into the financial system to revive lending, Mr Topolanek said:

"All of these steps, these combinations and permanency is the way to hell. We need to read the history books and the lessons of history and the biggest success of the EU is the refusal to go this way."

He added that the package would "undermine the stability of the global financial market".

There is more on what he had to say and it implications for Czech-US relations in the below report screened on Russia Today.

Malcolm Turnbull projects a more human image as he faces renewed leadership speculation

In this seven minute video the Liberal leader discusses his upbringing with his single father, meeting and marrying his wife, and the debt that the Kevin Rudd is building up for Australia's children.

Mr Turnbull's video has been released at a time of mounting speculation regarding the future of his leadership.

Stephen Harper: There's more to conservatism than freedom

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper used a speech to 300 conservative movement activists to argue that private enterprise cannot be the sum of conservatism.

Markets can fail: "We are in a global recession principally - and we have to face this - because a lot of people on Wall Street, because of a lot of people in the private sector more generally - homeowners or consumers - pushed or bought into a very unconservative idea: That they could live beyond their means."

Regulators can't take all the blame for current economic difficulties: "Regulators may have failed to prevent it but, in the end, it was a failure of the private sector to live according to the values we as conservatives know to be true... Conservatives don't believe big government - the welfare state - is the solution to all problems. We didn't believe it before the recession. We're not about to start believing it now. But neither can conservatives believe today that the marketplace - that which I call Wall Street - is the solution to all problems."

The state can play a vital role in getting the economy going again: "We are, as Conservatives, in response to massive failure in the marketplace, are using the public role of government to act. When billions, maybe trillions of private capital, is sitting on the sidelines because of fear, pessimism and panic, the government must step in to restore confidence, protect citizens and to stimulate the economy,"

Faith and family stand alongside freedom as conservative beliefs: "Faith in all its forms teaches . . . that there is a right and wrong beyond mere opinion or desire. Most importantly, it teaches us that freedom is not an end in itself, that how freedom is exercised matters as much as freedom itself."

Quotes taken from Canada's National Post.