ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Cameron calls for a general election following Labour's catastrophic defeat in Glasgow

The SNP won Labour's third safest seat in Scotland on a huge swing last night, with the Conservatives beating the LibDems into third place:

John Mason, SNP
11,277 (43.08%, +26.06%)

Margaret Curran, Labour
10,912 (41.69%, -18.99%)

Davena Rankin, Conservative
1,639 (6.26%, -0.64%)

Ian Robertson, LibDem
915 (3.50%, -8.35%)

A stunning result.

Fraser Nelson, who had analysed the constituency as closely as anyone but was still sceptical of an SNP victory, explains Labour's predicament well:

"This is the most momentous Scottish by-election since Hillhead in 1982. The SNP’s greatest victory since the Hamilton by-election which put it on the map in 1967. And a result which has fought off very tough competition to be Gordon Brown’s worst setback yet.

Westminster will want to know what this means for Gordon Brown. The question they should ask is what this means for Labour – and if there is such a thing as “rock bottom” for this party. Because tonight there just seems to be a vacuum, sucking up the Labour Party up very quickly. Yes, it was standing tall a year ago – but so was Bear Stearns. Labour looks like it may be heading the same way. As its National Policy Forum starts today, Labour should try very, very hard to envisage what its worst case scenario now looks like."

David Cameron said to Sky News this morning that voters want a change that only a general election can bring:

"What I wonder is whether we can really put up with this for another 18 months. I think whenever people have had a chance to speak about this government whether at the local elections whether in Crewe, whether in Henley, whether in the London Mayor elections and now in Glasgow they’ve said look we think you’re failing and we want change.

I think the PM should have is holiday but then I think we need an election. We need change in this country and that’s how change should come about."

Tories focus on "Labour's criminal record" in Glasgow East

The Scottish Conservatives have today launched a hard-hitting leaflet about crime in Glasgow as part of Davina Rankin's by-election bid.  The leaflet focuses upon Glasgow's crime problem - "a serious assault every four hours" and "a drug crime is committed every hour" - and also highlights the Tory MSPs' success at increasing police numbers across Scotland as part of the budget deal agreed earlier this year with the SNP.  A poll at the weekend found Labour 14% ahead of the SNP in the seat with the Tories in fourth place on 7%.  It was in Glasgow East last week that David Cameron made his "right and wrong" speech.

Click on either image to enlarge.

Labour on course to hold Glasgow East

All those Conservatives who want Gordon Brown to stay as Labour leader will be relieved to learn of an ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Mirror that gives the Labour candidate, Margaret Curran MSP, a 14% lead over her SNP rival in the Glasgow East by-election, scheduled for 24th July.

These are the results of the poll of 516 adults  (with 2005 votes in brackets):

• Labour: 47% (60.7%)
• SNP: 33% (17%)
• Liberal Democrat: 9% (12%)
• Conservative: 7% (7%)

The SNP will nonetheless be encouraged at the doubling of support since 2005.  They will also want to get still closer in the ten campaigning days that remain.

A YouGov survey on Friday - covering the whole of Scotland - found the SNP 4% ahead of Labour.

David Cameron hopes that Glasgow East will give local people a voice

David Cameron visits Glasgow East tomorrow with Iain Duncan Smith, Annabel Goldie and the Tory candidate Davena Rankin.  This statement from Mr Cameron has been issued to the Scottish media:

“The challenges facing the people of Glasgow East have been well documented. That is why this visit with Iain Duncan Smith is so important. We will meet with some of the amazing people who work tirelessly to mend broken lives in their communities.

The solutions to the deepest problems of generational poverty, dependency and unemployment will take a generation to address and we must move beyond the sticking plaster politics of pretending that there are any easy or quick fixes. The answers will lie with the people themselves in this great City and this by-election can play an important role in giving them a voice.

Because the voters will have a choice. A choice between rewarding a Labour Party rudderless in London, leaderless in Scotland and in disarray in Glasgow. Or the Nationalists who view the vote as just another chance to further their agenda of breaking up Britain.  Or a positive change with the Conservatives. Davena Rankin would be a first class and full time MP, in contrast to Labour’s latest favoured candidate who is 5th choice and wants to be a part time MP.

Labour is treating the voters of Glasgow East like fools.  Glasgow deserves a local champion dedicated to fighting for its people. That is why I am proud to be in Glasgow to campaign with Davena and Annabel and Iain. They have, through words and deeds shown a remarkable level of commitment and understanding of the challenges ahead.”

Labour choose local MSP to fight Glasgow East

Scottish Tory Boy is reporting that Glasgow MSP Margaret Curran will be Labour's candidate in the Glasgow East by-election.

This morning's Scotsman reports that all Labour MPs in Scotland and MSPs have been ordered to help defend a seat - the loss of which could spell the end of Gordon Brown.

On CentreRight yesterday, Simon Chapman urged the Conservative Party to make it "the social justice by-election":

"The Conservatives won't come close to winning this by-election. But it presents an extraordinary opportunity to invite the nation's media to visit this archetypal Labour area and take that look around themselves - to see how Labour has betrayed the poorest in our society."

Davena Rankin has already been adopted as our candidate.

Davena Rankin selected for Glasgow East

We thought Pat McPhee would remain the selected candidate for Glasgow East by-election but for reasons we're not yet aware of it now appears that Davena Rankin will be fighting it. Rankin said:

“I am delighted to have been selected to fight the seat of Glasgow East, and would like to take this opportunity to wish David Marshall a speedy recovery as he steps down. For too long the Labour Party has taken Glasgow for granted, Labour has abused and neglected Glasgow when it should have been standing up and fighting for the people of this city. I’m sending a message to everyone in Glasgow East that I want to be a strong, tireless and committed MP for everybody in this constituency.”

Her biography is given as follows:

"Davena Rankin was educated at Knightswood Secondary School in Glasgow and the University of Sussex where she graduated with a BSC (Hons) in Medicinal Chemistry. She worked as a Shop Manager for Marie Curie Cancer Care in 1995 then as a Customer Care Advisor for the TSB Bank plc from 1995 to 1996. In 1997 she carried out basic training as a Royal Naval Officer and from 1997 until 1998 she worked with the Student & Placement Entrepreneurial Graduate programme, for Nemquest Ltd at the University of Glasgow. She was a Marketing and Publicity Officer for the IBLS Commercial Liaison Office at the University of Glasgow from 1998 until 2000 and then became Commercial Manager for Research & Innovation Services at Glasgow Caledonian University.

Davena Rankin is an active member of UNISON where she is Branch Secretary of the GCU Branch and also sits on the National Women’s Committee, National Black Members Committee and the Higher Education Service Group Executive, and chairs the Scottish Women’s Committee."

Annabel Goldie welcomed the selection:

"I have known Davena for some time and she is a tireless campaigner, not just for the Scottish Conservatives but for everyone she is seeking to represent. You don’t have to change passports to get the change you need, and that’s why the Conservatives, not the SNP, are the real alternative to this imploding Labour Government."

Related link: Andrew Morrison's profile of Glasgow East

Andrew Morrison: Glasgow East has suffered from Labour's tired, failed social policy

Andrew Morrison, an accountant and resident of Glasgow East, offers an overview of the constituency ahead of the upcoming by-election.

This constituency is among the most deprived in Britain and is home to the ex-council ward ‘Calton’ which - as David Cameron mentioned in one of his first speeches as leader - was reported to have has a male life expectancy of 53.9 years. This is appallingly low compared to the UK average of 75.9 years.  Even Iraqis, who lack a universally free health service, can expect to live much longer than this.  Glasgow East is also home to the Easterhouse estate – famous for inspiring former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith to set up the Centre for Social Justice.

Cosmetically the areas around Glasgow East have been modernised and many of the large communal housing blocks built in the bleak ‘Brutalist’ architectural style have been demolished, however the area still suffers from all the big problems which plague inner cities – worklessness, alcohol abuse, drug addiction, petty crime.  Glasgow East suffers from these problems on a larger scale compared to other inner city constituencies. 

Not all of the area is doom and gloom however.  Since the electoral borders were altered to create Glasgow East more affluent neighbourhoods are now included in the area.  Suburbs such as Carmyle, Garrowhill and Mount Vernon are relatively peaceful and such areas are likely to be heavily targeted by the Nationalists.

Sadly for them however, Labour incumbents in Glasgow have hardly had reason to stir in their slumber.  The closest this area came to turning Conservative was during the Scots Tories apogee in 1955, where nationally the party won more than 50% of the popular vote.  At that election the party polled 42.2% of all votes cast in this seat, and the Labour candidate was still returned to Westminster safely.

Glasgow East MP said to be set to quit over ill-health

"Is there anything to beat the British by-election for heaping misery on the heads of pompous politicians or unerringly delivering the right message on behalf of the nation?", Philip Johnston asks today.

It looks like voters have another opportunity to send a message to the Government with the Telegraph reporting the impending resignation of Labour's David Marshall MP, for health reasons.

UKPollingReport has these figures for 2005:

1. Labour: 18775 (60.7%)
2. SNP: 5268 (17%)
3. Liberal Democrat: 3665 (11.8%)
4. Conservative: 2135 (6.9%)
5. Other: 1096 (3.5%)
6. Majority: 13507 (43.7%)

Apaprently Labour worries that the SNP will select local Scottish comedienne Elaine C Smith as   their candidate. The Conservatives have already selected Ayrshire Councillor Pat McPhee (pictured).

Unlike Henley, Labour will have to fight this one hard. It won't help their campaign efforts if they're distracted by Wendy Alexander possibly resigning.