ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Tories need 6.9% swing to win next General Election

An analysis by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth confirms that boundary changes will add 12 seats to the Tory tally and subtract seven from Labour's parliamentary representation.  But as BBC Online reports the Tories still have a mountain to climb in order to win the next General Election outright:

"The research suggests that [David Cameron's] party needs a swing of 6.9%, down from 7.4% on the current boundaries, to re-take power.  But, this is a larger swing than the Conservatives have managed since the war; Margaret Thatcher's famous victory in 1979 was achieved with a swing of 5.3%."

It will only take a 1% swing, however, to end Labour's majority.  This coming week ConservativeHome will be publishing your views on what the Tory leadership should do in the event of a hung parliament.

1% swing will end Labour's majority

That's the view of an analysis of the finalised boundary changes in today's Times.  If the new boundary changes had been in force at last year's General Election, "Labour’s 64-seat victory would have dropped to 44 with several more seats too close to call, The Times has learnt". "However," The Times continues, "the Tories will still need a swing of 9 or 10 per cent (down from 11 per cent) to win an outright majority, meaning that the parties may have to fight for Liberal Democrat support to be able to govern after the next poll."  The opposition of Tory grassroots to co-operation with the LibDems was recently examined in a ConservativeHome poll.