Chris Mullin quits in face of the Tories' 'Sunderland surge'

The Sunderland Echo is reporting that veteran Labour MP Chris Mullin won't be contesting the new Sunderland Central seat at the next General Election.  Mr Mullin had been adopted for the seat but appears to have had a change of heart.

Has it got anything to do with the Tories' 'Sunderland surge'?  Ten years ago the Conservatives had just four seats on Sunderland council.  They now have 22, gaining five more at the local elections.  Labour have 48 seats.

The projected Labour majority is a large 9,040 for Sunderland Central but if you add up the votes in the nine wards that voted on 1st May and make up the seat you get the following numbers:

• Conservative 10,573 (40%)
• Labour 8,099 (31%)
• Liberal Democrat 3,788 (14%)
• BNP 2,845 (11%)
• Independent 1,203 (5%)

Those familar with election nights will know that Sunderland Central is likely to be the first seat to declare.  It would be quite something if Lee Martin - our candidate pictured below with David Cameron and (right) Cllr Peter Wood (Wearside Chairman) is the first declared MP of the next Parliament.  Our MEP in the region, Martin Callanan, describes Cllr Martin as "star quality".  Good luck to Lee.

Comments

[Paul D]

Vey unlikely that we'll actually win SC, though it could be quite close if it's going to be a good night for us. This could well help us, though, given that Mr Mullin will have had a fair sized personal vote

[Tom Harris MP]

Talk about wishful thinking! I'm personally sad to hear that Chris may be stepping down, but really, Sunderland Central? You guys are going to have to take a reality check.

[601]

Is the Sunderland Central candidate the one without a tie 'cos he is HOT!!!!!!!!!!

[Editor]

Yes, 601, Lee Martin is the one without the tie.

[Orlando]

"After careful thought, I have reluctantly concluded that my useful life in parliament is over..." This is part of the statement from Chris Mullin....I suspect many Lab MPs will be saying the same thing either before or after the next GE....Come to think of it is a perfect characterization of this government!

[Alan Homes]

I can't see us taking this seat sadly. I think we'll only take Tynemouth in the North East.

[Chips of Brookfield]

Glad to see Dave a Lee showing they have the common touch - by having their picture taken in front of the Yacht Club!!

[eugene]

ZaNuLabour said the same about Enfield Southgate in 1997...''only a political earthquake will cause that seat to fall''....we can hope! :)

There are no no-go areas for the Conservatives anymore.

[Sean Fear]

I think it unlikely that Sunderland Central will fall, but we held a similar seat from 1953-64, and we have been doing extremely well in local elections here for several years.

I think a Labour lead of 5% or so is the likeliest outcome here.

[Jonathan M. Scott]

Why is it unlikely that the Conservatives can win Sunderland Central? It is fertile ground which can be won - if there are 10,573 Tory votes on a relatively low local election turnout, how many more would there be in a general election? Probabably enough to win the seat in the current circumstances.

Chris Mullin knows the area and knows his time is up - and he doesn't wish to be the first Labour scalp on election night 2010.

[Another Richard]

Talk about wishful thinking! I'm personally sad to hear that Chris may be stepping down, but really, Sunderland Central? You guys are going to have to take a reality check.

Posted by: Tom Harris MP | May 10, 2008 at 16:56

Nice to see Labour complacency. To go with the usual hypocrisy, incompetence and corruption.

A 13% swing is needed for the Conservatives to win Sunderland Central - Labour had a 17.4% swing in Southgate in 1997.

Chris Mullin will be the first of many Labout MPs who have never previously had a tough elections fight and/or neglected their constituency who decide not to stand at the next election.

[mjdear@hotmail.co.uk]

Not the same Lee Martin who scored an own goal against Montpellier in 1990?

[Dean]

Whilst Chris Mullin is unlikely to fear losing his seat he may see that the writing's on the wall for the government and not relish a prolonged spell in opposition.

[Michael Rutherford]

I can't help but worry that people are writing off Sunderland Central on the basis of perceptions people have of the North East and indeed Sunderland.

The campaign team in Sunderland is fantastic and they're winning in places you wouldn't normally expect. I think Lee Martin has a chance. You wouldn't expect his victory, but with a good campaign locally and nationally, you never know.

[Yet Another Anon]

The Conservatives put up a candidate who either wins or loses, the likliehood is that Labour holds the seat.

The main focus as always will be on the seats that are currently considered marginals, although what constitutes a marginal tends to shift a bit over time I doubt the campaign focus in a General Election would be likely to include Sunderland Central.

Local Election results haven't actually been relating much to General Election results for sometime.

[Andrew]

To be sure, Tyne and Wear is a Labour heartland. but...

a) there are no really "safe" Labour seats anymore. Okay, Easington, Bootle, but I think they'll be a lot of surprises on election night. We won't want to miss any of it. Get the Red Bull in now, because thanks to Frank Field, it might be only weeks away.

Thousands of Northern Rock staff are going to be laid off over the rest of the summer, hitting the North East. A lot of people will call centre and finance skills with no equivalent employer in the region. Many will take revenge on Brown.

[Labour supporter]

Cor blimey. That very scrumptuos looking candidate could DEFINITELY get me voting Tory!!!!

[Joe Cookson]

Lee Martin et al have done a superb job in Sunderland, and I think people underestimate the political change happening in the North-East which occured on May 1st-we have ten seats on the Unitary Authority in Durham when we were forecast to struggle to hold 3 or 4, and pushed a solid Labour council in Northumberland into NOC. In Sunderland this has been coupled both with social change and the best local campaigners I might argue anywhere in the country, whether other people here care about the North-East or not. Lee would be a super MP and fight hard for his local community from Westminster. They've got people card-carrying in places like Washington which have been Labour forever. More likely we win here than some of the ridiculous projections I've seen of use winning 3 or 4 seats in Scotland.

CF Area Chairman Cleveland and Durham