CCHQ mustn't delay Henley by-election

We know that there is going to be a by-election for Boris Johnson's Henley seat.  David Cameron confirmed as much during his press conference on Tuesday.

The LibDems are already gearing up.  They've started a lively website, opened a campaign HQ and they plan to select their candidate on Monday.

The party is understandably focused on the Crewe campaign - as are we - but let's not delay for long.  We don't want the LibDems building up a head of steam.  Let's select a local person and let's select that person quickly.

Comments

[Audrey Blythe]

Do we know when Boris is calling for the Chiltern Hundreds.

At the moment he is 2 jobs Boris!

Is he taking two salaries?? This could become a financial scandal unless he resigns tout de suite!

[ACT]

Why on earth should we select solely a 'local person'? Stanley's as a good a choice as anyone, and oddly, he's liable to be a lot less risky candidate than some.

[nobody]

But if they are too close together then they become the same story but if they are separated by a month or so then they become two stories.

[Skunkman]

How about called it to coincide with the last week of the Parliamentary timetable in July - sending Labour MP's into recess with that negative feeling...if they can get any more negative!

[CONfused]

How on earth would it be a financial scandal?

No more a scandal than for the brief time Livingstone remained an MP or Bob Neill and Andrew Pelling both being MPs whilst sitting on the GLA or the number of MPS sitting as MSPs

[Paul J]

As someone who used to be active in Bromley, I'm a little nervous about Henley. Bromley was rock solid and 100% Cons on the Council but they were still nearly upset by the Lib Dems.

I suspect that Henley is going to be a tougher yet less significant challenge than Crewe and Nantwich. Hopefully the momentum from the locals will carry us through but I think there is every reason for getting it over and done with as soon as possible.

Needless to say, if we get our act together and trash the Lib Dems convincingly then we stand a real chance of doing them serious damage for the GE.

[Henry Edward-Bancroft]

There was a piece in the Times the other day quoting the Henley Agent who said he had a timetable for the selection to take into account an Autumn or even spring (2009?) election.

[Pisaboy]

Stanley seems competent enough, but surely one Johnson is enough for British politics?? We're going to get bored of hearing about his son day in day out as it is!

[Dave B]

I hope the Henley Conservatives consider using an open primary/caucus to select their candidate.

[Simon Chapman]

We need to get this over with quickly and effectively. There's no upside for us in winning Henley, even with a huge majority (breaking news: dog barks).

The danger is that we lose Henley, or scrape in with a sharply reduced majority. We mustn't let the Lib Dems get early momentum, particularly if we are focussing on Crewe and they take a backseat there.

***

As to the candidate: who can follow in the footsteps of Hezza and Bozzer? Is wild blond(e) hair important? If it isn't, what about Matthew Pinsent or Steve Redgrave?

[Dale]

Local?

Whats wrong with Stanley?

He is a competant and much more likeable than anyone on the a list.

More importantly, he is getting on in years. Which means when he retires the seat will become available for our future prime minister when he is no longer mayor.

[Munish Chopra]

Pick someone with a proven local track record and a campaigner - not a gimmick!

John Howells seems the sensible choice!

[Tom FD]

He probably had less time for his MP job when he was out campaigning than he does now. Maybe instead of resigning his seat Boris should stand for every elected post in the country.

[Kate Bollinger]

'Johnson-fatigue' is a fair point, the people of Henley may not feel they're getting any 'CHANGE' if it's kept in the family.
The LibDems are putting more of their resources into Henley than we are because they don't have a chance in Crewe.. so a good local candidate is Highly desirable!

[Paul]

It has to be a local candidate, Stanley is funny but seems to offer very little in terms of substance. A bit old as well to be picked as a PPC. Just as aside Rachel Johnson was embarassing last night on Question Time, why on earth is she a columnist for the Sunday Times?

[Nostradamus]

TONY LIT FOR HENLEY! That is if he does not go back to Southall...or get selected for Rochester...

[London Tory]

Stanley Johnson had his chance in Teinbridge in 2005 and a poor Lib Dem MP saw his majority increased.

Surely there is only one suitable Tory to follow in the footsteps of bouffants Heseltine and Boris.....but can Michael Fabricant MP be persuaded to desert Lichfield ?

And do dead canaries count ?

[richard]

I think Michael Portillo would make a splendid candidate.

[C List and Proud]

Henley needs somebody who can work 18 hours a day/seven days a week for the next few weeks. That doesn't necessarily mean local, it means committed!

I would heartily recommend the Association take a good look at James Brokenshire!

[Duncan]

Richard- "I think Michael Portillo would make a splendid candidate".

Yes, he'd be ideal as the Labour Party candidate!

[Joe Cookson]

Notional result from the last election with boundary changes:

Conservative: 26326 (53.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 12667 (25.6%)
Labour: 7536 (15.3%)
Other: 2878 (5.8%)

This seat is safer than DCs next door, boasting a 13,659 majority. Not only is the person who loses this seat's political career over, DC would be hanging by a thread. Oxfordshire is not going to do a Bromley, or going further back, a Tunbridge Wells.

[Treacle]

This should have been called already, there is NO upside to this election, just a yawning chasm for us if it goes wrong.

When I hear phrases like 'Oxfordshire is not going to do a Bromley' I fear the worst. Bromley was on 51% of the vote, had just trounced the opposition in the local elections and called it quickly. They just held on. I suspect Henley have absolutely no idea of what is about to descend on them, I wish them luck.

[Richardoft]

From C List and Proud "I would heartily recommend the Association take a good look at James Brokenshire!"

What does he think they should do when they have finished looking at him? It's just possible that being an MP already could rule him out of a by-election. You certainly have some of the Party's brains on this site.......

[support the strivers]

dear God did anyone see "question time" last night? I've just watched the internet version....

[Mike P]

A local candidate is needed to ensure a comfortable victory.

Several of the district councillors (alma mater of Baroness Buscombe and Anna Leadsom, PPC in Northampton) are on the list and one - John Cotton - ran against Jack Straw in 2001, so there's plenty of choice.

[Anyone but stanley]

Anyone but Boris' dad. What Boris has got, Stanley does not. By-elections are not reasons for reverse-Freudian junkateering. No. Not Johnson Snr. What sounds like a good idea at Telegraph Towers feels like nepotism everywhere else.

[Not Stanley]

Stanley Johnson is a notorious Europhile like Ken Clarke. Boris was a Clarke supporter too.

[Will]

Mike P- don't forget John Glen.

[Alan S]

@2042: Boris backed Cameron for leader.

[finn]

Stanley would make an outstanding by-election candidate, given more time he would have eaten in to the Lib Dem vote in Teignbridge.

[Jamie]

I agree that the Henley by-election should be held as soon as possible. The Lib dems will be desperate to win and will throw everything they have into the seat. On paper it looks very safe for the tories, but then so did Bromley back in 2006. Only slight difference I can see is that the 2005 labour vote in Henley was lower than in Bromley, meaning the LDs have less anti-tory votes to squeeze. If Boris holds off for too long then his constituents may start to resent playing 2nd fiddle to London. I don't think Stanley Johnson is a good option. We need a local candidate.

[Yet Another Anon]

There isn't much point holding this until there are other elections in the area at the same time, Boris could take the Chiltern Hundreds in time that the writ could be moved to coincide with the European Elections in the event that Labour don't have a Super Thursday - it's only just over a year off, its not as if Parliament and the offices of the London Mayor are that far apart, he can pop in to vote on issues.

[Yet Another Anon]

but can Michael Fabricant MP be persuaded to desert Lichfield ?
Somehow I don't think that voters in Lichfield would be too impressed by their MP jumping ship for a by-election in another constituency, the subsequent Lichfield by-election would be likely to be far more difficult for the Conservative Party in what would be seen as an unneccessary election.

[Not Stanley]

Alan S, Boris backed Ken Clarke against IDS. Silly boy!

[Neil Reddin]

From a native Bromley boy ... what we must do to avoid Henley becoming another Bromley & Chislehurst - or worse.

1. Call it now and get on with it - as CH has now already called for. One problem in Bromley & Chislehurst was that many of the wards had just seen a hard fought local election contest and the voters were already fed up with seeing a forest of paper coming through their letterboxes. Also, polling day clashed with (IIRC) Wimbledon and an increasing number of summer holidays. Remember that the Lib Dem vote in B&C only went up by about 1,600 - it was the Tory vote that stayed at home - largely through election fatigue, or simply because they weren't at home to stay home!

2. If there is to be any time lapse (which I hope will only be a matter of days) that CCHQ uses the time to assess the existing infrastructure. It's hard enough to get outside help for a "safe seat" - let alone if, once you do get people down, they find they're double-delivering roads, or the native activists with their local knowledge feel ignored.

3. Never underestimate the Lib Dems - there aren't many of them nowadays, but they are very sad people who will literally camp out in the constituency in order to deliver their wretched Foci, dodgy bar charts and all. As said before, they will ignore Crewe & Nantwich. They will be fighting, if not to win, at least to upset the applecart with a good swing which the left-leaning pundits will love to talk up (if be a little confused about).

[Old Hack]

Perhaps this by-election is the one where the Lib Dem by-election machine runs into a brick wall at 100mph.

Its no surprise they are gearing up and there is little reason at this point to think that the CCHQ by-election ops have radically improved.

But the political landscape may well have changed - and that is what the Lib Dems need to learn in the most graphic possible way.

Putting it bluntly they need to be bitchslapped by the electorate and lose a by-election - badly - which would be in other times a classic Lib Dem opportunity.

If that happens, then the Yellow Peril will start to look a lot more like the roadkill they actually are.

Conversely this by-election is also a proving ground for CCHQ candidates department. Cock this up by parachuting in some favoured candidate and then lose - its time for the revolver and a walk in the woods.

[Margaret on the Guillotine]

Nope. The national picture matters not a jot in a by-election. If the Lib Dems descend en masse with bar charts and ward-specific Focuses declaiming the achievements of the glorious ward councillor (plus "local" PPC), slagging off the Tory council and squeezing the Labour vote, then they'll grab it.

I'll bet Central Office (and the Henley Association) thinks of this as some sort of joke which can be left to the Association, they'll get their fingers burnt a la Bromley. At the same time a complacent CF-run campaign like Southall, all glossy shiny smiles and no trousers, will be just as bad.

Mock and ignore the yellow stain at your peril!